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The Pub at MMORPG.COM  » XFire - As MMO population estimation tool

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298 posts found
  SaunZ

Novice Member

Joined: 8/26/12
Posts: 130

1-800-ASK-SAUN

5/27/13 12:33:13 AM#261
Originally posted by strangiato2112
Originally posted by SaunZ

exact game populations can be derived from using the XFire database; humans just haven't discovered the correct algorithm to do so.

 

Sz

:o)

No, it can't.

Unless you took a survey of every MMORPG player in ever single MMORPG to find out if they used xfire so you can find the exact percentage for each game, in which case you would know the counts without xfire.

 

At a bare minimum you would have to run a model for every single MMORPG to try to determine what % of its players use xfire.  its reasonable to believe a game like TERA has more than 5% of its players using xfire, whereas a game like EQ1 likely has less than 1/10 of a percent.  And since we would be using models, the numbers wouldnt be exact.

 

You probably could get a ballpark figure with 5-10% margin of error but it would take a long time to do all the studies necessary to set up models.

 

"No it can't" or "you probably could"?  

come back when you can put a single thought together.

your model idea is close but not how it was done... at least YOU are warm.

 

Sz

:o)

  SaunZ

Novice Member

Joined: 8/26/12
Posts: 130

1-800-ASK-SAUN

5/27/13 12:42:55 AM#262
Originally posted by lizardbones

 


Originally posted by SaunZ

Originally posted by Squeak69

Originally posted by SaunZ

Originally posted by Karahandras

Originally posted by TheCrow2k The theory in the first post ammounts to little more than a guess "backed up" by nothing more than a coincidence. I am in a Clan with 60+ members in my city, only 2 report to being on xfire. Not very good numbers when talking about % of population. Bottom line is not enough people use xfire & the people that do fit a certain profile that does not match the bulk of gamers.
  Unless xfire is a requirement for an mmo then the numbers are too random to be used as an estimation tool and only going to represent xfire users and nothing else.
  "... too random..."   beginning statistics users (ie. engineering students) are WAY funny   Sz :o)
what i find way funny is you actully think a program that only a percentage of players use can be used to track to overall population of a game. fact xfire dose not have a set percentage of xfire users to non xfires user in each game or even in the same game at diffrent times of day. fact useing a non stable percentage as a basis for estimateing population dousnt work. this is why xfire can not be used for reliable judgement of a games population
fact: we were able to use same procedure to predict President Obama's election

 

fact: you deciding it is a non stable percentage is funny

just because you can't do these things doesn't mean intelligent life can't

 

Sz

:o)




Fact: The methods used by pollsters to predict elections isn't anything at all like what XFire does.

 

I will work with you on Operational Numbers (Stats) once we work on your comprehension of English structure.

I said, "fact: we were able to use same procedure to predict President Obama's election"

You said, "Fact: The methods used by pollsters to predict elections isn't anything at all like what XFire does."

Anything seem strange or twisted here?  I said how WE did it and you changed to how pollsters do it.

I seriously doubt you know how WE did it OR how THEY do it but, relax and understand that XFire is a sample set and that sample set is used by vendors and consumers.  You can argue, forever, that it is not valid and yet it IS used; and used accurately given the correct tools.

I am bored by this.. lets go talk about the sinister ambitions of F2P or why GW2 failed.

 

Sz

:o)

  lizardbones

Advanced Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10953

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

5/27/13 10:14:24 AM#263


Originally posted by SaunZ

Originally posted by lizardbones  

Originally posted by SaunZ

Originally posted by Squeak69

Originally posted by SaunZ

Originally posted by Karahandras

Originally posted by TheCrow2k The theory in the first post ammounts to little more than a guess "backed up" by nothing more than a coincidence. I am in a Clan with 60+ members in my city, only 2 report to being on xfire. Not very good numbers when talking about % of population. Bottom line is not enough people use xfire & the people that do fit a certain profile that does not match the bulk of gamers.
  Unless xfire is a requirement for an mmo then the numbers are too random to be used as an estimation tool and only going to represent xfire users and nothing else.
  "... too random..."   beginning statistics users (ie. engineering students) are WAY funny   Sz :o)
what i find way funny is you actully think a program that only a percentage of players use can be used to track to overall population of a game. fact xfire dose not have a set percentage of xfire users to non xfires user in each game or even in the same game at diffrent times of day. fact useing a non stable percentage as a basis for estimateing population dousnt work. this is why xfire can not be used for reliable judgement of a games population
fact: we were able to use same procedure to predict President Obama's election   fact: you deciding it is a non stable percentage is funny just because you can't do these things doesn't mean intelligent life can't   Sz :o)
Fact: The methods used by pollsters to predict elections isn't anything at all like what XFire does.  
I will work with you on Operational Numbers (Stats) once we work on your comprehension of English structure.

I said, "fact: we were able to use same procedure to predict President Obama's election"

You said, "Fact: The methods used by pollsters to predict elections isn't anything at all like what XFire does."

Anything seem strange or twisted here?  I said how WE did it and you changed to how pollsters do it.

I seriously doubt you know how WE did it OR how THEY do it but, relax and understand that XFire is a sample set and that sample set is used by vendors and consumers.  You can argue, forever, that it is not valid and yet it IS used; and used accurately given the correct tools.

I am bored by this.. lets go talk about the sinister ambitions of F2P or why GW2 failed.

 

Sz

:o)




Step One: What question is being asked. Election Polls: Who will be the next president. Xfire: ?

Step Two: Target demographics that will lead to getting the right answer. So for an election poll, non-voting Wiccans would not be relevant, and would be ignored. For XFire, it's just anyone who happens to sign up.

Step Three: Throw out irrelevant information: For election polls, this is the step where the non-voting Wiccans responses are ignored. For XFire, this is where nothing is ignored, no matter how irrelevant.

Step Four: Actually determine an answer. In election polls, this is where they knew Obama was going to win the election. For XFire it's what? No, really, what is the answer? What was the question? Because it wasn't "How many people are playing SWToR".

XFire isn't anything like an election poll because XFire isn't a poll. It's an information service for developers and marketers. The people using XFire aren't the customers, and the people looking at the website aren't the customers either. They are the product.

Look at the percentage of XFire's homepage devoted to advertising for visitors, compared to the percentage of MMORPG.com's website devoted to advertising. XFire is making money somewhere, but it's not website advertising. They are selling the information they collect to developers and marketers, because those are their customers. You think Funcom needs XFire to know how many people are playing Age of Conan? They want to know what kinds of people are playing AoC, and what those people are interested in buying. Someone developing a new game wants to know what kinds of features people are taking screenshots of, and what kinds of videos they are posting. The game population angle is a side show.

I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  Icewhite

Made History

Joined: 7/11/11
Posts: 6495

Pink, it's like red but not quite.

5/27/13 10:22:06 AM#264
withdrawn, not worth it.

Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.

  strangiato2112

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 9/21/12
Posts: 1566

5/27/13 12:35:26 PM#265
Originally posted by SaunZ
Originally posted by strangiato2112
Originally posted by SaunZ

exact game populations can be derived from using the XFire database; humans just haven't discovered the correct algorithm to do so.

 

Sz

:o)

No, it can't.

Unless you took a survey of every MMORPG player in ever single MMORPG to find out if they used xfire so you can find the exact percentage for each game, in which case you would know the counts without xfire.

 

At a bare minimum you would have to run a model for every single MMORPG to try to determine what % of its players use xfire.  its reasonable to believe a game like TERA has more than 5% of its players using xfire, whereas a game like EQ1 likely has less than 1/10 of a percent.  And since we would be using models, the numbers wouldnt be exact.

 

You probably could get a ballpark figure with 5-10% margin of error but it would take a long time to do all the studies necessary to set up models.

 

"No it can't" or "you probably could"?  

come back when you can put a single thought together.

your model idea is close but not how it was done... at least YOU are warm.

 

Sz

:o)

You should probably drop the whole condescending routine, because you lack the basic comprehension of the English language to pull it off.

 

You said you could get an *exact* number.  I said you can't, but could probably get a rough ballpark number.  Exact isn't really a big vocabulary word, so maybe its the phrase 'ballpark' that's throwing you off?  But even so the context of the sentence should clue you in to what it represents.

 

My suggestion is you stop posting before you embarrass yourself any further.

  lizardbones

Advanced Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10953

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

5/27/13 1:45:16 PM#266


Originally posted by strangiato2112

Originally posted by SaunZ

Originally posted by strangiato2112

Originally posted by SaunZ exact game populations can be derived from using the XFire database; humans just haven't discovered the correct algorithm to do so.   Sz :o)
No, it can't. Unless you took a survey of every MMORPG player in ever single MMORPG to find out if they used xfire so you can find the exact percentage for each game, in which case you would know the counts without xfire.   At a bare minimum you would have to run a model for every single MMORPG to try to determine what % of its players use xfire.  its reasonable to believe a game like TERA has more than 5% of its players using xfire, whereas a game like EQ1 likely has less than 1/10 of a percent.  And since we would be using models, the numbers wouldnt be exact.   You probably could get a ballpark figure with 5-10% margin of error but it would take a long time to do all the studies necessary to set up models.
  "No it can't" or "you probably could"?   come back when you can put a single thought together. your model idea is close but not how it was done... at least YOU are warm.   Sz :o)
You should probably drop the whole condescending routine, because you lack the basic comprehension of the English language to pull it off.

 

You said you could get an *exact* number.  I said you can't, but could probably get a rough ballpark number.  Exact isn't really a big vocabulary word, so maybe its the phrase 'ballpark' that's throwing you off?  But even so the context of the sentence should clue you in to what it represents.

 

My suggestion is you stop posting before you embarrass yourself any further.




You would need information that XFire doesn't release for free, and probably the cooperation of the developer of the game you wanted to get numbers for. If nothing else, you'd need their cooperation to confirm that your model's numbers are some measure of reality. If you could secure the cooperation of the developer, why wouldn't you just get them to give you the numbers in the first place?

I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  fadis

Novice Member

Joined: 12/16/09
Posts: 473

5/29/13 12:06:50 AM#267

XFire, alone, can't tell you everything - but it can be one piece of the puzzle that can help you get a pretty good (depends on your definition, I suppose) guess.  

 

 It should be very effective (in the shorter term) for identifying trends in populations - regardless of the game.

  sportsfan

Advanced Member

Joined: 8/20/12
Posts: 419

6/24/13 5:04:01 AM#268
Originally posted by fadis

XFire, alone, can't tell you everything - but it can be one piece of the puzzle that can help you get a pretty good (depends on your definition, I suppose) guess.  

 

 It should be very effective (in the shorter term) for identifying trends in populations - regardless of the game.

On the contrary.

In the launching period every game will loose MUCH activity because of the following factors:

- 90% of all sales are done within the first weeks.

- Players play 10 hours a day sometimes for very popular games in these launching weeks.

- After X time  the playing time will be much less (10 hours --->2-3 hours).

- The new sales will never cover the initial launching period.

 

The above means that EVERY new launched game will loose around 80% activity in just 1 to 3 months time.

Effectively giving the hate trolls the opportunity to scream: game is dying all over the place.

The bigger the launching sales numbers, the bigger the fall really.

 

  Muke

Hard Core Member

Joined: 1/04/07
Posts: 1641

6/24/13 5:07:25 AM#269
What happened? Xfire sending ppl to this forum again because it went down even further in popularity?

"going into arguments with idiots is a lost cause, it requires you to stoop down to their level and you can't win"

  madazz

Novice Member

Joined: 10/07/03
Posts: 1312

6/26/13 7:56:12 PM#270
I can't believe this thread is still pinned... such a waste of space. Xfire can only track Xfire users, which I highly doubt is a very diverse group of people. This forum itself can track gaming trends sans xfire much better. Is the OP a friend of the mods or something? I remember reading that he made this request and was granted it, but isn't it time we lay this thread to rest? No one is even using it...
  lizardbones

Advanced Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10953

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

6/26/13 9:25:01 PM#271


Originally posted by madazz
I can't believe this thread is still pinned... such a waste of space. Xfire can only track Xfire users, which I highly doubt is a very diverse group of people. This forum itself can track gaming trends sans xfire much better. Is the OP a friend of the mods or something? I remember reading that he made this request and was granted it, but isn't it time we lay this thread to rest? No one is even using it...


Working as intended.

I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  madazz

Novice Member

Joined: 10/07/03
Posts: 1312

6/27/13 11:20:33 AM#272
Ahh okay... so we are to treat it as a piece of art... just something to look at but not contribute too.
  lizardbones

Advanced Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10953

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

6/27/13 11:31:30 AM#273


Originally posted by madazz
Ahh okay... so we are to treat it as a piece of art... just something to look at but not contribute too.


I said, "working as intended" because people aren't ruining other threads with XFire arguments. Whether people are or are not talking about XFire at all is a secondary consideration.

I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  madazz

Novice Member

Joined: 10/07/03
Posts: 1312

6/27/13 6:27:30 PM#274
Originally posted by lizardbones

 


Originally posted by madazz
Ahh okay... so we are to treat it as a piece of art... just something to look at but not contribute too.



I said, "working as intended" because people aren't ruining other threads with XFire arguments. Whether people are or are not talking about XFire at all is a secondary consideration.

 

Excellent perspective. 

  Dejoblue

Novice Member

Joined: 5/09/11
Posts: 295

I'll give them heroics...and when everyone is super...no one will be.

7/21/13 11:44:47 PM#275
I think self selecting bias makes this inaccurate.
  karmath

Novice Member

Joined: 8/24/05
Posts: 843

7/27/13 2:05:15 AM#276

It's a useful tool to guesstimate, nothing more. 

 

I have been playing online games for better part of 20 years and have never installed xfire or a similar tool on any PC I have owned. On the other hand I know many who swear by it.

  Xthos

Novice Member

Joined: 4/18/10
Posts: 2651

7/27/13 2:11:18 AM#277
At most I think it can suggest a plus or minus in population, but not numbers.
  MMOGamer71

Apprentice Member

Joined: 11/12/07
Posts: 1655

7/27/13 2:16:06 AM#278
I have been playing MMO's since Dark Age of Camelot and I know of NOONE that uses Xfire.
  Ender4

Advanced Member

Joined: 5/18/08
Posts: 2098

10/03/13 9:42:21 AM#279

xfire users is a tainted sample so no you really can't use them for anything. It would be like polling rich white guys who they are going to vote for and saying that you had a valid poll for the entire population. Some games don't play nice with it so people turn it off when they play those ones, some games appeal to younger players and very few younger players use xfire etc.

These numbers are utterly meaningless.

  Phry

Elite Member

Joined: 7/01/04
Posts: 5555

10/03/13 9:53:15 AM#280
Originally posted by MMOGamer71
I have been playing MMO's since Dark Age of Camelot and I know of NOONE that uses Xfire.

apps like xfire and raptr etc, are very limited in how they work, so they never really gained any popularity.  They don't really add anything to a game, its not like they are useful like programs such as mumble, ventrilo or Teamspeak, now if those apps provided a graph of game useage then that would be different as the userbase is far more widespread, but even then there are many that don't use any form of voice comms, as hard to believe as that may be.

  Xfire etc, are just apps that provide interesting talking points, but they don't really provide any kind of valid data even on gaming trends, the sample size is far too small and far too narrowly specialised to be in any sense meaningful.

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