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General Discussion  » Call the ambulance WoW under 8 million subs now

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299 posts found
  Gishgeron

Advanced Member

Joined: 3/05/07
Posts: 1297

7/26/13 12:57:11 PM#121

  There are so many ways to really look at all this data.  You could say that 8 million is about 7 million more than the average game gets.  You could also say they've lost more players in the last 2 years than the vast majority ever see.  The game is going to be insanely profitable for many years yet.  Even when it finally dips below that line, they can do a F2P conversion and nearly instantly get most of those back.  This is the kind of game that will take decades still before any sort of closure is possible. 

  I do wonder where so many players are going, though.  I've seen that question is this thread already, but not enough attention is on that.  There isn't a huge influx of players on any other game, though I'm sure at least half of those lost have spread out among the other offerings.  2 million feels right, though I have no data to back that up.  It does seem to gel with the sub numbers new MMO's are getting off and on.  That does imply 2 million players are just not playing anything.  Or haven't changed their current play roster to fill the free time provided by not playing WoW. 

  To me, that says a great many people aren't leaving from hate but from responsibilities.  Kids and marriages and careers are probably starting to get in the way of play time and WoW is getting cut.  THAT seems to fit with the changes WoW keeps making.  Things like the fast loot they've added and the faster grinds and quicker kills to allow more action in less time to try and fit with a player group that no longer has it.  I imagine they have looked over the exit polls and found this to be true.

  ReallyNow10

Hard Core Member

Joined: 8/11/10
Posts: 1937

Not all change is good.

7/26/13 12:57:52 PM#122
There may be 8 millions subs, but I don't know where the heck they are.
  User Deleted
7/26/13 12:58:05 PM#123

When the numbers fall below 1 million, then speculate. Until then, what's the point?

  Volgore

Tipster

Joined: 6/15/08
Posts: 2189

Posts deleted: 12589457

7/26/13 12:58:41 PM#124

I love to see the Panda-addon meeting my expectation, which was to fail.

Guess this is what you get from the western players for shoving an asian addon down their throats.

  BadSpock

Hard Core Member

Joined: 8/21/04
Posts: 8048

Logic be damned!

7/26/13 1:00:25 PM#125
Originally posted by DavisFlight
Originally posted by BadSpock
Originally posted by DavisFlight

Wake up devs, themepark model doesn't work.

Ummm...

Hope this is sarcasm... cause the themepark model works very, very well - depending on the game and the payment model.\

Haha, seriously? Didn't work for WAR, or SWTOR, or AoC, or TSW, or Rift, or LotRO, or any of the other recent flops. When a game merges servers and forces itself to go FTP after a month or so, and developers get fired, it did poorly.

How many sandbox MMOs are there that prove that model works?

One? EvE? And, by the way, their 500k peak subscribers is still... let's see.... 6 times less than what you say was the peak WoW subscriber count in the west (3 million.)

Don't be ignorant.

No "model" is what makes a game work or not work - it is a LOT more complicated than that.

I've probably been lurking for way, way too long.

  Phry

Elite Member

Joined: 7/01/04
Posts: 6044

7/26/13 1:00:49 PM#126
Originally posted by ReallyNow10
There may be 8 millions subs, but I don't know where the heck they are.

Planet Earth of course, you should visit it some time

  ReallyNow10

Hard Core Member

Joined: 8/11/10
Posts: 1937

Not all change is good.

7/26/13 1:02:59 PM#127
Originally posted by Phry
Originally posted by ReallyNow10
There may be 8 millions subs, but I don't know where the heck they are.

Planet Earth of course, you should visit it some time

Earth maybe, but I sure haven't seen many of them around Azeroth lately.

  BadSpock

Hard Core Member

Joined: 8/21/04
Posts: 8048

Logic be damned!

7/26/13 1:03:10 PM#128
Originally posted by Jean-Luc_Picard
Originally posted by DocBrody

from now on it can only go downwards.

also, lol@the numbers when EQ Next hits the shelves

People have been saying that the last 8 years.

"lol@the numbers when Vanguard hits the shelves."

"lol@the numbers when Age of Conan hits the shelves."

"lol@the numbers when LOTRO hits the shelves."

"lol@the numbers when hits the shelves."

Great post!

If WoW releases a quality expansion that backs off on some of the simplification and gives long term players what they actually want (and lets the younger players flock back and forth to new titles like Wildstar and ESO etc.)

Those numbers (7.7 million) would actually go back up, like they do for a short while after every expansion.

If the remove the damn gimmicks and simplification and focus on quality content, lots of it, and exceptional gameplay - WoW will continue to do fine, maybe even earn some folks back.

I've probably been lurking for way, way too long.

  DavisFlight

Novice Member

Joined: 9/25/12
Posts: 2604

7/26/13 1:06:24 PM#129
Originally posted by BadSpock
Originally posted by DavisFlight
Originally posted by BadSpock
Originally posted by DavisFlight

Wake up devs, themepark model doesn't work.

Ummm...

Hope this is sarcasm... cause the themepark model works very, very well - depending on the game and the payment model.\

Haha, seriously? Didn't work for WAR, or SWTOR, or AoC, or TSW, or Rift, or LotRO, or any of the other recent flops. When a game merges servers and forces itself to go FTP after a month or so, and developers get fired, it did poorly.

How many sandbox MMOs are there that prove that model works?

One? EvE? And, by the way, their 500k peak subscribers is still... let's see.... 6 times less than what you say was the peak WoW subscriber count in the west (3 million.)

Don't be ignorant.

We're not talking about sandboxes. DAoC, EQ, AC,  those games grew over time because they weren't built around linear scripted content that you burn through and then leave. They had heavy social elements, which built human ties that kept you on the game. Same for sandboxes like UO, and SWG.

How many AAA sandbox MMOs have there been? Two. UO, and SWG, and both were massive successes of their time, and didn't start failing until themepark features were added.

And Eve, which started out as a nothing MMO, is the second biggest MMO in the west, and its a sandox, and its STILL GROWING. Meanwhile, SWTOR, 300 million budget, died instantly.

  VikingGamer

Apprentice Member

Joined: 7/08/10
Posts: 1346

The strong are sometimes wrong but the weak are never free.

7/26/13 1:08:21 PM#130

They changed up the part of the game that had all my best memories. All the places I once had so much fun discovering are gone. The game i once played doesn't exist anymore and the game that replaced it is only mediocre. I don't know if Cata ruined the game or not but it did make it easy for me to move on.

No game ever stays the same, they all move forward, usually by being made easier and so you never can recapture again, what once was. You only come back to visit the old neighborhood to relive some memories. But it is always jarring and a bit sad the last time you come home to find out everything has been bulldozed and you realize there is no reason now to come back.

All die, so die well.

  KBishop

Novice Member

Joined: 7/08/13
Posts: 205

7/26/13 1:09:07 PM#131
Originally posted by BadSpock
Originally posted by Jean-Luc_Picard
Originally posted by DocBrody

from now on it can only go downwards.

also, lol@the numbers when EQ Next hits the shelves

People have been saying that the last 8 years.

"lol@the numbers when Vanguard hits the shelves."

"lol@the numbers when Age of Conan hits the shelves."

"lol@the numbers when LOTRO hits the shelves."

"lol@the numbers when hits the shelves."

Great post!

If WoW releases a quality expansion that backs off on some of the simplification and gives long term players what they actually want (and lets the younger players flock back and forth to new titles like Wildstar and ESO etc.)

Those numbers (7.7 million) would actually go back up, like they do for a short while after every expansion.

If the remove the damn gimmicks and simplification and focus on quality content, lots of it, and exceptional gameplay - WoW will continue to do fine, maybe even earn some folks back.

Personally I see that as doubtful.

WoW, like EQ, UO, and so on will always have a fan base, but the biggest factor for its decline is realistically just that it's a 10 year old game. Games get old, and people move on. The older the game gets, the more people move on, and the less new people come to join in. WoW will lose subs until it tappers off to just the hardcore fan base, but it's not because it's bad, its because its passed its prime.

  Vannor

Apprentice Member

Joined: 8/11/03
Posts: 3037

7/26/13 1:09:49 PM#132

I dunno why people gloat.

The quicker they go down, the quicker it'll go FTP and then they'll be back up to over 10 million active players... and most of you will be included in them.

  Mothanos

Novice Member

Joined: 10/20/10
Posts: 1903

7/26/13 1:09:58 PM#133

And of those 7.7 million 5 million are asian.
Free to play comming at you this winter.

  Ramonski7

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 5/21/03
Posts: 2704

"A wise man has something to say, but a fool just has to say something."

7/26/13 1:15:31 PM#134
Might as well say it's 7.7 million +1.... I'm heading back to Azeroth and resubbing this weekend. And I'll stay subbed until my wife and I hit 90. Then my daughter and I will be heading to Eorzea for a while.


"Small minds talk about people, average minds talk about events, great minds talk about ideas."

  13lake

Elite Member

Joined: 9/14/10
Posts: 245

7/26/13 1:19:22 PM#135

If WoW loses subs at million a year, it will have 700,000 subs in 2020 :P

Almost all currently out mmos are sitting at near that value and are profitable enough with cash shop.

:P

  karat76

Hard Core Member

Joined: 8/22/06
Posts: 1016

Greatest threat to society is letting casualties of puberty reproduce.

7/26/13 1:23:15 PM#136
I left and broke the cycle of returning to it last year between cata , pandas and feeding raiders at expense of rest of community it was not worth playing. However they are still making mountains of money and can just ride it out until they launch a new game.
  BadSpock

Hard Core Member

Joined: 8/21/04
Posts: 8048

Logic be damned!

7/26/13 1:24:22 PM#137
Originally posted by DavisFlight
Originally posted by BadSpock

How many sandbox MMOs are there that prove that model works?

One? EvE? And, by the way, their 500k peak subscribers is still... let's see.... 6 times less than what you say was the peak WoW subscriber count in the west (3 million.)

Don't be ignorant.

We're not talking about sandboxes. DAoC, EQ, AC,  those games grew over time because they weren't built around linear scripted content that you burn through and then leave. They had heavy social elements, which built human ties that kept you on the game. Same for sandboxes like UO, and SWG.

How many AAA sandbox MMOs have there been? Two. UO, and SWG, and both were massive successes of their time, and didn't start failing until themepark features were added.

And Eve, which started out as a nothing MMO, is the second biggest MMO in the west, and its a sandox, and its STILL GROWING. Meanwhile, SWTOR, 300 million budget, died instantly.

Let's see - EQ player numbers easily dwarfed UO (and I was one of the folks who hated EQ and played UO instead) and don't get your facts wrong with SWG - the game was dying and on its last legs BEFORE the NGE and CU happened, if you remember the timeline, SWG lost more than 50% of the playerbase when WoW came out about a year after.

It was again about a year after the release of WoW that the NGE happened, and it was done to try and save the game from ridiculously low subscriber counts - but of course we all know that really backfired as those who still loved the game were furious and left and the new "WoW-crowd" players never showed up - because they were playing WOW!

I personally left SWG because I hated the Holocron grind, the themeparks (Rebel/Imp/Jabbas) and monthly arcs were always broken/borked, and I got into BETA for JTL expansion and it was garbage compared to X-Wing / Tie Fighter.

SWTOR didn't die, BTW either, by all accounts F2P saved the game. Just like RIFT and TSW and a few others.

Those were all failures AS GAMES, not the failure of the model.

And to say WoW hasn't survived this long without any social ties is the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard. Tons of people still play only because their friends play, and the most social aspects of the game are still some of the most popular like Raiding and Arena/other Team PvP.

I've probably been lurking for way, way too long.

  Rusque

Elite Member

Joined: 6/08/10
Posts: 2113

7/26/13 1:25:30 PM#138
Originally posted by Rusque
Originally posted by sketocafe
Does anyone know the breakdown on the $15 a month western subscribers and the Asian "subscribers" who don't pay a sub?

I can't find a breakdown of types of subs on their financial statements (probably because money is money to accountants, whereas chinese subs are "fake" subs to internet trolls).

But the Blizzard segment of Acti-Blizz brought in $1,698,000,000 in net revenues in 2012 (and to keep that in perspective, Activision brought in $3,072,000,000 which is about double).

Acti-Blizz made $1,537,000,000 from digital online channels (which I assume subs are included) and $3,013,000,000 from retail channels again in 2012 (which I would assume includes all box sales, merchandise and such)

Ah, sorry I'm doing this in real time and I just found revenues by geographic location: Just to save me the zero's, there are all in millions:

North America $2,436 in 2012

Europe $1,968 in 2012

Asia Pacific $452 in 2012

So it seems Asia is their smallest market to date. Actually looking at the previous years, 2011 and 2010, it was significantly smaller before. pocket change compared to NA and EU.

 

And I just found online subs: $986,000,000 in 2012. Almost a biillion dollars, but it is a drop from previous years.

$1,357,000,000 in 2011 and $1,230,000,000 in 2010. Ouch. These subscriptions are a combination of WoW and CoD memberships.

In any case, if you are ever curious about a companies financials you can just google "name of company" and "financial report" and go through it.

Figured I'd pull this out of the middle of the thread since we're getting back to people saying "most of the subs are Asian players" which insinuates that asians should not be counted as "real" people because, I don't know why; and that most of Blizzards money is coming from that region while the west is failing.

But if we look at their financials, we see that Asia is their smallest segment bringing in 1/5 of NA is bringing in, despite the population of countries like China. So think what you will, but those are numbers.

  bcbully

Tipster

Joined: 3/03/12
Posts: 8251

7/26/13 1:27:46 PM#139
Originally posted by 13lake

If WoW loses subs at million a year, it will have 700,000 subs in 2020 :P

Almost all currently out mmos are sitting at near that value and are profitable enough with cash shop.

:P

Yeah, it's been losing around two mill though. 600k over 3 months is around 6500 people per day.  275 people per hour.

http://www.twitch.tv/sunshineNB
J.O.B. Daggerfalls BEST Gank Crew

  Nadia

Tipster

Joined: 7/26/03
Posts: 11860

7/26/13 1:28:43 PM#140

i previously posted the breakdown

 

it was last known to be 55 Asian vs 45 Western split

http://wow.joystiq.com/2008/01/22/world-of-warcraft-hits-10-million-subscribers/

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