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The Pub at MMORPG.COM  » MMOs will collapse one day, but that;s not a bad thing

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71 posts found
  PsychoticHamster

Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/12
Posts: 98

 
OP  7/13/13 6:47:42 PM#1
Pretty much the title. This influx of games that are slight variations of each other are at the moment flooding the market, which will eventually get over saturated and shut down. Whether that's because the cost to create will be too high(which it already is) or because the  demand for MMO's has diminished doesn't matter, all that matters is that it will happen. But I don't think this will be bad for the genre. Sure, maybe for a few years absolutely nothing happens regarding MMO's, but I think a total collapse of the genre will bring about a rebirth or "renaissance" if you will. Imo true change and progress can only come after a big event/ devastation, and that's just what the genre needs. 

  Asteriveth

Apprentice Member

Joined: 10/18/03
Posts: 103

7/13/13 6:56:43 PM#2

This is exactly what is wrong with message boards, twitter, facebook and the like. People have become convinced that their opinions matter, and in some cases are fact, just because they can post them. 

 

  Gorwe

Elite Member

Joined: 9/16/11
Posts: 2423

7/13/13 7:03:04 PM#3
Mate, everything ends. And things that don't(presumably), well they become shitpickles. In other words Unholy abominations and failures of ass! That's one way to put it that they become zombies(like WAR :O ).

Now what was I talking bout again? ;)
  danwest58

Elite Member

Joined: 5/14/09
Posts: 974

7/13/13 7:03:42 PM#4
The OP is correct that the MMO Market with collapse and cause many publishers to shut down.  People can think other wise but it will happen.  There are too many MMOs today and many of them took on a lot of debt to create their games that will never make a profit or enough of a profit to keep alive.  People dont believe so, lets wait and see; watch what happens. 

  Loktofeit

Elite Member

Joined: 1/13/10
Posts: 13620

Currently playing EVE, SMITE, ArcheAge, and Combat Arms

7/13/13 7:07:03 PM#5
Originally posted by danwest58
The OP is correct that the MMO Market with collapse and cause many publishers to shut down.  People can think other wise but it will happen.  There are too many MMOs today and many of them took on a lot of debt to create their games that will never make a profit or enough of a profit to keep alive.  People dont believe so, lets wait and see; watch what happens. 

Your perspective is skewed because you see MMOs as only those which fit your definition of them. When you look at the bigger picture, massively multiplayer online games and their virtual worlds have only just begun.

Will there be successful MMOs ten years from now? Sure.

Will they look anything like MMOs from ten years ago? I seriously doubt it.

There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein

  danwest58

Elite Member

Joined: 5/14/09
Posts: 974

7/13/13 7:15:37 PM#6
Originally posted by Loktofeit
Originally posted by danwest58
The OP is correct that the MMO Market with collapse and cause many publishers to shut down.  People can think other wise but it will happen.  There are too many MMOs today and many of them took on a lot of debt to create their games that will never make a profit or enough of a profit to keep alive.  People dont believe so, lets wait and see; watch what happens. 

Your perspective is skewed because you see MMOs as only those which fit your definition of them. When you look at the bigger picture, massively multiplayer online games and their virtual worlds have only just begun.

Will there be successful MMOs ten years from now? Sure.

Will they look anything like MMOs from ten years ago? I seriously doubt it.

No its not skewed.  Its simple business you are not going to keep and MMO that cost $100 to $300 Million to develop operating for long with the current way MMOs are designed period.  People are blowing through content in a matter of weeks and see no reason to keep paying for a sub.  If its F2P they charge you $40 for a mount $6 for a respec, if they are Freedum they are good for a sub for a month or two when a new major patch come out then useless for months after that.  All development in MMOs now are going into developing content for short periods of time and trying to see what people will buy from cash shops.  It is not sustainable period.  Todays MMOs are noting but single player games with cash shops.  

  VengeSunsoar

Advanced Member

Joined: 3/10/04
Posts: 5248

Be Brief, Be Bright... Be Gone.

7/13/13 7:42:37 PM#7
Originally posted by danwest58
Originally posted by Loktofeit
Originally posted by danwest58
The OP is correct that the MMO Market with collapse and cause many publishers to shut down.  People can think other wise but it will happen.  There are too many MMOs today and many of them took on a lot of debt to create their games that will never make a profit or enough of a profit to keep alive.  People dont believe so, lets wait and see; watch what happens. 

Your perspective is skewed because you see MMOs as only those which fit your definition of them. When you look at the bigger picture, massively multiplayer online games and their virtual worlds have only just begun.

Will there be successful MMOs ten years from now? Sure.

Will they look anything like MMOs from ten years ago? I seriously doubt it.

No its not skewed.  Its simple business you are not going to keep and MMO that cost $100 to $300 Million to develop operating for long with the current way MMOs are designed period.  People are blowing through content in a matter of weeks and see no reason to keep paying for a sub.  If its F2P they charge you $40 for a mount $6 for a respec, if they are Freedum they are good for a sub for a month or two when a new major patch come out then useless for months after that.  All development in MMOs now are going into developing content for short periods of time and trying to see what people will buy from cash shops.  It is not sustainable period.  Todays MMOs are noting but single player games with cash shops.  

 Your response pretty much proved his point.

An MMO in the future may not cost that much, it may cost more or less.  Content may be longer or shorter. 

MMO's will change, but they will still be here.  The only time they won't is if any and all available forms of massive media interaction stop.

edit - a number of years I started a thread on here with pretty much your exact same perspective.  I said mmo's are too expensive to make and we players are far too picky.  If it doesn't have all the bells and whistles we call it a failure, and ignore it, the game then fades into obscurity, but in order to have all the bells and whistles it needs to attract a large audience meaning it has to have the things those people want.. we then call it a clone and a failure.  Something had to give. 

Something did, they turned to f2p to get rid of the glass ceiling of a person only paying so much per month, and/or added a cash shop to the sub for the same reason.

In the future if that scenario happens again, games cost too much to develop, something else will give, but the games will still be here.

Quit worrying about other players in a game and just play.

  Gurkha1969

Novice Member

Joined: 7/10/13
Posts: 3

That which does not kill you makes you stronger!

7/13/13 7:52:28 PM#8

Yep,

He's right it's happened already in the movie industry.....hmmmmm (wait NO it hasn't)

So if there are tons of action movies that are similar and slightly different why do people watch them? (Super Saturation) Oh and Horror flix (geeze)

There will be no shortage of people to play all of these games and the only thing that the industry will suffer is the same as the rest

"IMO"

I have an idea, I find investors, they risk money on my idea, we get people to make it, we put it out there we see how they respond.

It takes off, It FAILS, or it breaks even.... as with all things.

  Miblet

Apprentice Member

Joined: 8/19/10
Posts: 334

7/13/13 8:08:25 PM#9

As much as everyone predicts the fall of the MMO, I don't think it will happen.

It will become less popular in the future I have no doubt, as trends change and people move onto the next big thing, whatever that may be, but it won't die...there may be less options though as those seeking profit invest money in those newer trends.

That games are becoming bland and too similar may have some truth, but as mentioned by others it hasn't hurt any other media and it's been going on a lot longer in those markets.

There is still the innvovation in the MMO centric market but many won't put up with games without AAA graphics, yet fail to grasp that with such large investments returns are not only expected but needed, and risks are rarely taken by major companies (they usually capatilise on the risks taken by smaller publishers when, and if, they pay off).

  jazz.be

Advanced Member

Joined: 8/26/06
Posts: 811

7/13/13 8:09:26 PM#10

In contrary to what the OP claims, I think it will rather be an evolution and not a revolution.

The progression will be a step by step basis.

I honestly think it already evolved into something that is missing some MMO key features, but that is debatable.

The main reason is that it's simply over it's peak. The one thing that initially made MMOs great has been discovered, explored and consumed. What comes after this, or what is build on this is just an extension and eventually something completely different.

  maplestone

Novice Member

Joined: 12/10/08
Posts: 3109

7/13/13 8:21:29 PM#11
Originally posted by Asteriveth

This is exactly what is wrong with message boards, twitter, facebook and the like. People have become convinced that their opinions matter, and in some cases are fact, just because they can post them. 

That's an interesting opinion.

  Jemcrystal

Hard Core Member

Joined: 1/02/08
Posts: 1544

Let em put a slave ring thru u're nose u're prob not going to like where they're taking you. Think.

7/13/13 8:47:02 PM#12
Unless there is an economic crash mmo's are here to stay.  Not only that, virtual reality and artificial intelligence will be around the corner.  The game industry is a lot like Hollywood.  Unless it falls into the ocean it's not going to drown and it has it's up and down seasons.

Best console game: DD Dark Arisen. Best mmo: GW2. Best game series ever: The Sims.

  ozmono

Novice Member

Joined: 3/12/06
Posts: 1219

throw as many stones as you want and pray when your turn comes I have ascended

7/13/13 8:54:22 PM#13
Originally posted by PsychoticHamster
Pretty much the title. This influx of games that are slight variations of each other are at the moment flooding the market, which will eventually get over saturated and shut down. Whether that's because the cost to create will be too high(which it already is) or because the  demand for MMO's has diminished doesn't matter, all that matters is that it will happen. But I don't think this will be bad for the genre. Sure, maybe for a few years absolutely nothing happens regarding MMO's, but I think a total collapse of the genre will bring about a rebirth or "renaissance" if you will. Imo true change and progress can only come after a big event/ devastation, and that's just what the genre needs. 

"Destruction leads to a very rough road

But it also breeds creation

And earthquakes are to a girl’s guitar

They are just another good vibration

And tidal waves couldn’t save the world from Californication"

 

 

 

  ozmono

Novice Member

Joined: 3/12/06
Posts: 1219

throw as many stones as you want and pray when your turn comes I have ascended

7/13/13 9:07:50 PM#14
Originally posted by maplestone
Originally posted by Asteriveth

This is exactly what is wrong with message boards, twitter, facebook and the like. People have become convinced that their opinions matter, and in some cases are fact, just because they can post them. 

That's an interesting opinion.

I wonder if he considers it fact because he can post it.

 

For the record I believe, peoples opinions do matter. Asteriveth's opinion matters for example but I don't necessarily agree with it. It's sounds to me like a bitter generalization coming from an elitist. Unfortunately I still think it matters.

  Antiquated

Elite Member

Joined: 3/08/13
Posts: 641

7/13/13 9:41:10 PM#15
Originally posted by Asteriveth

This is exactly what is wrong with message boards, twitter, facebook and the like. People have become convinced that their opinions matter, and in some cases are fact, just because they can post them. 

 

I think it's pretty nearly a given that this market will collapse one day. Eliminated by emerging tech we haven't even predicted yet, if nothing else.

But it's a kind of gutless prediction, really. "One day in billions of years, the stars will go out, mark my words!" "Tomorrow, the sun will likely rise."

  Rayshe

Novice Member

Joined: 11/30/11
Posts: 1296

7/13/13 9:54:36 PM#16
At one point in time people believed that Film was a passing fad, that people would get sick of it and dump it eventually. You can say the exact same things about MMO's alot of people think its gonna fail, crash, and burn. However my money is on it surviving the Infant years of its creation (which is where we are now) and grow to become something better.

Because i can.
I'm Hopeful For Every Game, Until the Fan Boys Attack My Games. Then the Knives Come Out.
Logic every gamers worst enemy.

  nariusseldon

Advanced Member

Joined: 12/21/07
Posts: 22588

7/14/13 1:45:57 AM#17
Originally posted by Asteriveth

This is exactly what is wrong with message boards, twitter, facebook and the like. People have become convinced that their opinions matter, and in some cases are fact, just because they can post them. 

 

I hope there is a betting forum to let people bet on their wishful thinking.

 

  User Deleted
7/14/13 1:56:03 AM#18
Originally posted by PsychoticHamster
Pretty much the title. This influx of games that are slight variations of each other are at the moment flooding the market, which will eventually get over saturated and shut down. Whether that's because the cost to create will be too high(which it already is) or because the  demand for MMO's has diminished doesn't matter, all that matters is that it will happen. But I don't think this will be bad for the genre. Sure, maybe for a few years absolutely nothing happens regarding MMO's, but I think a total collapse of the genre will bring about a rebirth or "renaissance" if you will. Imo true change and progress can only come after a big event/ devastation, and that's just what the genre needs. 

I believe we're already starting to see this. It's the natural function of a market. 

  Axehilt

Elite Member

Joined: 5/09/09
Posts: 8538

7/14/13 4:36:46 AM#19

Definitely won't "collapse".

They'll probably decline, but only relative to the overall games industry.  Which means they might not even decline in absolute terms, only relative to the growth of the industry.

Then again, some sources which use a very loose definition of MMO would say MMOs are growing at a ridiculous rate.  But personally I hold true to the original version of the term, centered on a shared persistent world inhabited by an unusually large number of players at once.  And of those games (the actual MMOs) I definitely think there will be a slight decline relative to the industry.

That said, the OP is right that it's completely fine for the MMO industry to fail to grow at the same rate as the rest of the industry.  Because if it's not growing, it means it wasn't a popular or efficient type of game to make, and developers will seek to make games which are more efficient at delivering players fun new experiences.

"Joe stated his case logically and passionately, but his perceived effeminate voice only drew big gales of stupid laughter..." -Idiocracy
"There is only one good, knowledge, and one evil, ignorance." -Socrates

  nerovipus32

Novice Member

Joined: 1/15/11
Posts: 2833

7/14/13 4:49:50 AM#20
Some people just want to watch the world burn. I think OP would get great pleasure if the MMO genre collapsed. MMO entertain millions of people world wide. I don't see a collapse i see an expansion. Most games now are going the multiplayer route. e.g destiny and the division. I see MMOs getting bigger in the future.
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