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World of Warcraft

World of Warcraft 

General Discussion  » World of Warcraft going the way of Diablo 3

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75 posts found
  KBishop

Novice Member

Joined: 7/08/13
Posts: 205

7/08/13 6:06:20 PM#61
Originally posted by Aysono
Originally posted by KBishop
Originally posted by Aysono
Originally posted by KBishop
Originally posted by Aysono

This is the internet. You just need to upload 1 piece of information, whether it is a file, a picture, a vid or whatever. It can go viral and be found in a thousand sites easily. Apparently they all came from this person nobody even know of.

Just use common sense on a company to company or game to game analysis. If it only took 277k players for WoW to break even it would take SWTOR far less to maintain. Why did EA turn it f2p citing drop in sharp drop in profits when they last report their sub at 1.3 million?

http://www.theverge.com/2012/11/15/3652132/star-wars-old-republic-free-play-level-50

"The choice to go free-to-play is guaranteed to get more casual players on board, and EA has said it will continue to break even as long as subscriber numbers stay over 500,000."

doesn't sound too far out of left field.

What's your point? Is 1.3 million more than 2.5 times of 500k?

lol.

you: If it only took 277k players for WoW to break even it would take SWTOR far less to maintain.

quote: The choice to go free-to-play is guaranteed to get more casual players on board, and EA has said it will continue to break even as long as subscriber numbers stay over 500,000.

What does this all mean? EA is saying as long as they are pulling 500,000 subscribers to break even with a near virtually identical subscriber fee. That means that WoW's requirement of 277k to break even doesn't seem that far off, and is completely in line to the original point I was making. That point is that as long as they have 277,778 subs, theoretically they are making a tiny profit and anything else is bonus.

As to WHY they are going F2P, its simple. They are gambling on people spending optional money. If sub fee's offer nice bonuses, those who were paying it now will almost assuredly keep paying it anyway. This means they aren't likely to lose money. The KEY is, however, that new people will come on board to it now that its F2P. This means theres a new group of people who either MIGHT opt to pay the fee for the additional goodies, or might spend it on shops which is additional revenue for EA.

 

Let just kick that number 277,778 subs out of the picture since it can't never be verified.

 

OK. let's also assume WoW will not be shut down just to stop this argument until more official information is released.

 

Now, will they go f2p after seeing results from SWTOR, Aion and other bigger competitors? So by your reasoning, since EA could survive without turing f2p but turned f2p for more profits anyway why should WoW also turn f2p to get more profits?

my guess is that SWTOR, Aion and so on went F2P because the difference in subscription numbers they had and subscription numbers they needed to turn a profit was relatively small. I'm guessing they did the math and found they'd make more money by opening the market to more people and offering goodies that people could buy.

WoW will go F2P eventually. Thats inevitable. The question is when and how many subs are needed before its more lucrative to go F2P. My guess is probably around 1M. As for when? Maybe in another 4-5 years.

 

Just as a food for thought. Candy Crush is a completely free game where in you can buy a bunch of goodies. They reported to have made $500M in one year. Never underestimate the purchase of goodies.

Source: http://money.msn.com/now/post.aspx?post=ab93a88c-adfb-45bc-b7a5-2cfde7a5e1b2

  Aysono

Advanced Member

Joined: 1/28/10
Posts: 164

7/08/13 6:16:11 PM#62
Originally posted by KBishop
Originally posted by Aysono
Originally posted by KBishop
Originally posted by Aysono
Originally posted by KBishop
Originally posted by Aysono
Originally posted by KBishop
Originally posted by Aysono

Thin air? What thin air? Didn't I tell you what Blizzard did to Diablo 2 and Titan? Again, you don't have to believe it but writing a post to just disagree other's post without reasoning is called trolling and I believe it is against the policy of these forums.

to be fair, Diablo 2 was a 1 time purchase which, according to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_PC_video_games only sold 4M copies over time. Even putting it at $60 purchase (it was $40 back in those days), that only amounts to $240,000,000. WoW EASILY pulls in more than that in 3 months even with the lower sub count. You can't readily compare the two

You also need to take the time, market environment and the company's status into consideration. At the time when D2 was paused $240 million was a lot and Blizzard didn't have anything else to raise money. If you look at D3 today, it can outgrow WoW with many ways to monetize it, such as RMAH, cash shop and whatever some creative people can think of.

just an FYI, that $240M wasn't up front. Thats why I said OVER TIME. That $240,000,000 is over the course of 13 years

How much would the buying powers of  $240 million 10-20 years ago nowadays? And again, how much were Blizzard making besides D2 at the time they paused it?

 

For every business, there is an opportunity cost. If a company believe they can find better opportunities with their seed money they will plant it elsewhere? Wasn't that how WoW replaced D2? Isn't it what you see going with D3, Skylander and other hugely successful cash cows that pushed WoW to the last place and become the burden of Blizzard in Wall Street analysts' reports?

lets leave it at 13 years. this game wasn't even in D1 20 years ago.

Considering that we weren't in a colossal debt 13 years ago? I'd say the buying power was actually LESS then than it is now

edit: and WoW never replaced D2. Diablo was always Blizzards weakest IP behind starcraft and warcraft

LOL. The Nation needs to hire you as their financial minister then. Without debt? Any country can do well without debt and don't forget consumers came from all over the world, not only THIS Nation.

Diablo WAS the weakest IP behind WoW. But it was then. It is the other way now.

ok. I don't necessarily know where you've been for the last 15 years, but A) we were in a surplus when Clinton left (as in we had no national debt) and B) we were in a trillion dollar debt when Bush left (which also happened to be our nations greatest financial collapse after the great depression.

No, Diablo is STILL Blizzards weakest IP. Even with the sales figures behind D3 and the declining subs in WoW. Although, to be fair, Diablo was surprisingly a stronger IP than the WC rts series.

 

Source: http://www.statisticbrain.com/blizzard-entertainment-statistics/

Remember the buy one year WoW sub get Diablo 3 free promotion? That's creative accounting. It is just robbing Peter to pay Paul.

  sportsfan

Apprentice Member

Joined: 8/20/12
Posts: 436

7/08/13 7:09:25 PM#63
Originally posted by KBishop
 

Just as a food for thought. Candy Crush is a completely free game where in you can buy a bunch of goodies. They reported to have made $500M in one year. Never underestimate the purchase of goodies.

Source: http://money.msn.com/now/post.aspx?post=ab93a88c-adfb-45bc-b7a5-2cfde7a5e1b2

Never overestimate these F2P things either.

82% of Farmville gamers never spend a dime.

Only 3% spend 20 dollars.

 

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/28322/Study_21_Percent_Of_Gamers_Aware_Of_FarmVille_Play_It_Daily.php

"Despite the game's popularity, 82 percent of FarmVille players do not spend any money in the free-to-play game. Around 5 percent spend $1-5 in the game, and about the same amount spend $6-10. 3 percent of FarmVille users, though, spend more than $20 a month. Those figures aren't surprising considering that 57 percent of players also said they don't like spending a lot of money on gaming (46 percent of "average console gamers" said the same)."
 

According to these figures ... WOW would need around 150 million active players each month to compare with a 8 million sub based game...

Again further proof WOW would need to go under 1 million subs to turn F2P.

The number of hardcore Blizzard fans is already bigger than that 1 million number anyway.

 

F2P for costly MMORPG's is a catastrophe. The publishers want to recuperate some initial invested money of old sub based games...

Nothing more nothing less ...

  doodphace

Hard Core Member

Joined: 6/19/12
Posts: 1860

7/08/13 7:32:03 PM#64
Originally posted by Aysono
Originally posted by KBishop
Originally posted by Aysono
Originally posted by KBishop
Originally posted by Aysono
Originally posted by KBishop
Originally posted by Aysono
Originally posted by KBishop
Originally posted by Aysono

Thin air? What thin air? Didn't I tell you what Blizzard did to Diablo 2 and Titan? Again, you don't have to believe it but writing a post to just disagree other's post without reasoning is called trolling and I believe it is against the policy of these forums.

to be fair, Diablo 2 was a 1 time purchase which, according to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_PC_video_games only sold 4M copies over time. Even putting it at $60 purchase (it was $40 back in those days), that only amounts to $240,000,000. WoW EASILY pulls in more than that in 3 months even with the lower sub count. You can't readily compare the two

You also need to take the time, market environment and the company's status into consideration. At the time when D2 was paused $240 million was a lot and Blizzard didn't have anything else to raise money. If you look at D3 today, it can outgrow WoW with many ways to monetize it, such as RMAH, cash shop and whatever some creative people can think of.

just an FYI, that $240M wasn't up front. Thats why I said OVER TIME. That $240,000,000 is over the course of 13 years

How much would the buying powers of  $240 million 10-20 years ago nowadays? And again, how much were Blizzard making besides D2 at the time they paused it?

 

For every business, there is an opportunity cost. If a company believe they can find better opportunities with their seed money they will plant it elsewhere? Wasn't that how WoW replaced D2? Isn't it what you see going with D3, Skylander and other hugely successful cash cows that pushed WoW to the last place and become the burden of Blizzard in Wall Street analysts' reports?

lets leave it at 13 years. this game wasn't even in D1 20 years ago.

Considering that we weren't in a colossal debt 13 years ago? I'd say the buying power was actually LESS then than it is now

edit: and WoW never replaced D2. Diablo was always Blizzards weakest IP behind starcraft and warcraft

LOL. The Nation needs to hire you as their financial minister then. Without debt? Any country can do well without debt and don't forget consumers came from all over the world, not only THIS Nation.

Diablo WAS the weakest IP behind WoW. But it was then. It is the other way now.

ok. I don't necessarily know where you've been for the last 15 years, but A) we were in a surplus when Clinton left (as in we had no national debt) and B) we were in a trillion dollar debt when Bush left (which also happened to be our nations greatest financial collapse after the great depression.

No, Diablo is STILL Blizzards weakest IP. Even with the sales figures behind D3 and the declining subs in WoW. Although, to be fair, Diablo was surprisingly a stronger IP than the WC rts series.

 

Source: http://www.statisticbrain.com/blizzard-entertainment-statistics/

Remember the buy one year WoW sub get Diablo 3 free promotion? That's creative accounting. It is just robbing Peter to pay Paul.

I remember, the promotion counted for 1 million of D3's 12 million copies sold....not sure where you are going with that.

  Axehilt

Elite Member

Joined: 5/09/09
Posts: 8064

7/08/13 8:15:36 PM#65
Originally posted by doodphace

Someone please explain to me how someone datamining 1 item on the PTR = WoW going F2P...

Please...

I think you missed the word "gradually" there.

  doodphace

Hard Core Member

Joined: 6/19/12
Posts: 1860

7/08/13 9:44:11 PM#66
Originally posted by Axehilt
Originally posted by doodphace

Someone please explain to me how someone datamining 1 item on the PTR ment as a tech test for possibly Asia = WoW gradually going F2P...

Please...

I think you missed the word "gradually" there.

There, fixed it for you.

  Aysono

Advanced Member

Joined: 1/28/10
Posts: 164

7/09/13 11:43:27 AM#67

Everybody should stop this discussion as the verdict is in:

 

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2013-07-09-blizzard-confirms-in-game-micro-transactions-for-world-of-warcraft

 

There will be a cash shop coming to WoW near you.

 

The new discussion should be: WoW's new cash cow... What's in your wallet?

  maplestone

Novice Member

Joined: 12/10/08
Posts: 3109

7/09/13 12:28:01 PM#68

"First, we’ll be testing the in-game store with some new kinds of items we’re looking into introducing (in Asian regions, at the outset) based on player feedback: specifically, an experience buff to assist with the leveling process, as well as an alternate way to acquire Lesser Charms of Good Fortune."

And there we have it ladies and gentlemen: keys for bonus loot.

 

  nariusseldon

Elite Member

Joined: 12/21/07
Posts: 21930

7/09/13 12:47:10 PM#69
Originally posted by Aysono

Everybody should stop this discussion as the verdict is in:

 

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2013-07-09-blizzard-confirms-in-game-micro-transactions-for-world-of-warcraft

 

There will be a cash shop coming to WoW near you.

 

The new discussion should be: WoW's new cash cow... What's in your wallet?

People should have seen this coming.

And those who don't think this will eventually lead to F2P is naive. Once they verify they have whales, and i bet there will be many more whales in WOW than other games, F2P is a no brainer.

 

  maplestone

Novice Member

Joined: 12/10/08
Posts: 3109

7/09/13 12:51:47 PM#70
Originally posted by nariusseldon

And those who don't think this will eventually lead to F2P is naive. Once they verify they have whales, and i bet there will be many more whales in WOW than other games, F2P is a no brainer.

If people ae willing to pay a subscription *and* use a cash shop, then why drop the subscription?

  nariusseldon

Elite Member

Joined: 12/21/07
Posts: 21930

7/09/13 12:54:17 PM#71
Originally posted by maplestone
Originally posted by nariusseldon

And those who don't think this will eventually lead to F2P is naive. Once they verify they have whales, and i bet there will be many more whales in WOW than other games, F2P is a no brainer.

If people ae willing to pay a subscription *and* use a cash shop, then why drop the subscription?

Not if you can catch more whales by dropping the sub. In fact, most F2P conversions essentially proves that (making more money).

There is obviously a balancing point ... but sooner or later WOW will pass it.

  Drakynn

Novice Member

Joined: 3/02/08
Posts: 2051

7/09/13 12:54:48 PM#72
Originally posted by maplestone
Originally posted by nariusseldon

And those who don't think this will eventually lead to F2P is naive. Once they verify they have whales, and i bet there will be many more whales in WOW than other games, F2P is a no brainer.

If people ae willing to pay a subscription *and* use a cash shop, then why drop the subscription?

I don't doubt that WoW will go F2P at some stage but it's nowhere close to the point where switching to F2P and being whale supported would be more profitable than what it brings in with subs right now in the west.

  Shodanas

Hard Core Member

Joined: 1/05/10
Posts: 823

7/09/13 12:59:09 PM#73
Originally posted by doodphace
Originally posted by nariusseldon
Originally posted by doodphace
Originally posted by Axehilt

WOW gradually going F2P?

Is this actually a surprise? If anything it's a surprise it took so long.

What has it got to do with Diablo 3? It's obviously going the way of F2P games (games which reported 200% or higher revenue increases) and doing something Diablo 3 didn't do at all.

Someone please explain to me how someone datamining 1 item on the PTR = WoW going F2P...

Please...

No one says WOW is going F2P tomorrow.

However, given that they are losing subs every year, isn't it quite reasonable to discuss the possibility of WOW going f2p? It is already F2P up to L20.

 

Nobody is saying that WoW will NEVER go F2P EVER.....but at the same time, nothing, not even the 1 datamined item, points to it happened within the next 5 years at the very least. WoW can stand to lose a million subs a year and still take another 6 years before it even becomes necessary. Im just pointing out how silly it is to read all of the comments here as if "its finally happening" ...you know......the post I quoted even said "im suprised it took so long"...like its actually happening...so you are right, he wasnt suggesting that its happening tomorrow...hes stating that its happening right now...so ya.....I'm sure you see why now I quoted what I quoted, and commented what I commented...im sure ud agree with me right?

WoW lost almost 1.5 million subs in a 4 month period. At this or a similar rate a f2p option is much closer than you think.

  Aysono

Advanced Member

Joined: 1/28/10
Posts: 164

7/09/13 1:07:22 PM#74
Originally posted by maplestone
Originally posted by nariusseldon

And those who don't think this will eventually lead to F2P is naive. Once they verify they have whales, and i bet there will be many more whales in WOW than other games, F2P is a no brainer.

If people ae willing to pay a subscription *and* use a cash shop, then why drop the subscription?

How many of the 8.3 millions will be willing to pay a $15 a month sub and a the-sky-the-limit-microtransaction-fee?

I don't think too many of the 5 millions friends from the east, particularly the comrades in China, will do that since almost every online game they can play are f2p.

  Amana

MMORPG.COM Staff

Joined: 1/03/11
Posts: 2475

7/09/13 2:07:12 PM#75
Already discussion happening here: http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/389211/WoW-Adding-a-F2P-Style-Cash-Shop-Confirmed-by-Blizz.html

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