This entire thread is becoming redonkulous.

People that hate the game is trying a little TOO HARD to make the game look bad.

Oooh 3 million sold for a buy to play isnt good because D3.

Yeah, it isnt even an actual MMORPG, its an ARPG with an IP that sold millions. The only thing different from D3 and D2 is that its 100% online.

The ACTUAL fact is that GW2 is a full fledged MMORPG and the list of MMORPGs that topped 3 million copies sold is VERY SMALL.

World of Warcraft, Guild Wars 1 and Lineage 2

Thats right, SWG did not come close. Ultima Online did not come close. EverQuest 1 or 2 did not come close. Age of Conan did not come close. Dark Age of Camelot did not come close...not even Lineage 1 which can be argued to be the second largest populated MMO in history sold more than 3 million because it went free so long ago.

So, how is it so many former MMORPGs that are held to be "good" or have "done well" did not come CLOSE to 3 million sold, but somehow GW2 does yet is held to a different standard? Simple, haters gonna hate...and they will hate with arguments that dont hold water.

Originally posted by jtcgs

This entire thread is becoming redonkulous.

People that hate the game is trying a little TOO HARD to make the game look bad.

Oooh 3 million sold for a buy to play isnt good because D3.

Yeah, it isnt even an actual MMORPG, its an ARPG with an IP that sold millions. The only thing different from D3 and D2 is that its 100% online.

The ACTUAL fact is that GW2 is a full fledged MMORPG and the list of MMORPGs that topped 3 million copies sold is VERY SMALL.

World of Warcraft, Guild Wars 1 and Lineage 2

Thats right, SWG did not come close. Ultima Online did not come close. EverQuest 1 or 2 did not come close. Age of Conan did not come close. Dark Age of Camelot did not come close...not even Lineage 1 which can be argued to be the second largest populated MMO in history sold more than 3 million because it went free so long ago.

So, how is it so many former MMORPGs that are held to be "good" or have "done well" did not come CLOSE to 3 million sold, but somehow GW2 does yet is held to a different standard? Simple, haters gonna hate...and they will hate with arguments that dont hold water.

Haters and fanboys ^.  Both equally irritating.  

Originally posted by ScaryMonk

Originally posted by jtcgs

This entire thread is becoming redonkulous.

People that hate the game is trying a little TOO HARD to make the game look bad.

Oooh 3 million sold for a buy to play isnt good because D3.

Yeah, it isnt even an actual MMORPG, its an ARPG with an IP that sold millions. The only thing different from D3 and D2 is that its 100% online.

The ACTUAL fact is that GW2 is a full fledged MMORPG and the list of MMORPGs that topped 3 million copies sold is VERY SMALL.

World of Warcraft, Guild Wars 1 and Lineage 2

Thats right, SWG did not come close. Ultima Online did not come close. EverQuest 1 or 2 did not come close. Age of Conan did not come close. Dark Age of Camelot did not come close...not even Lineage 1 which can be argued to be the second largest populated MMO in history sold more than 3 million because it went free so long ago.

So, how is it so many former MMORPGs that are held to be "good" or have "done well" did not come CLOSE to 3 million sold, but somehow GW2 does yet is held to a different standard? Simple, haters gonna hate...and they will hate with arguments that dont hold water.

Haters and fanboys ^.  Both equally irritating.  

 Its true, pointing out the argument that 3 million sold is not a lot based on D3 sales makes a person a fanboy. Must be a hater.

Originally posted by fiontar

The wholesale price is probably closer to $36/unit. It's not unreasonable to guesstimate that the average revenue per unit is somewhere around $45.

an analyst firm claimed ANET is making $48 a copy

http://www.gamebreaker.tv/mmorpg/guild0-wars-2-thanksgiving-in-tyria/

NCSoft will receive $48 out of every $59.99 copy of GW2 sold

Originally posted by Nadia

Originally posted by Ramonski7

Including the base game and not needing it in order for a standalone to function are two totally different things. No where on the box does it say gw1 is required to play Nightfall when you buy the Nightfall campaign but I sure Storm Legions requires having Rift installed or they wouldn't be including it in the first place.

Storm Legions Infinity - does not require RIFT installed

 

my point regarding GW2 remains

if ANET sells bundles of the expansion  (similar to RIFT)

- how do you differentiate the old players from new players?

 

I doubt ANET is going to list the bundles seperately in their financial reports

That's because it's included in the package. Here:

http://www.gamersgate.com/DD-RIFTSLIE/rift-storm-legion-infinity-edition

Furthermore that's a pretty bold assumption to think that ANet will follow the lead of a mmo that has a sub based revenue model. I for one would think it would be wiser to maximize box sales seeing as they have a totally different way to generate revenue. But that's just me.

That alone is reason enough to believe that there will be separate statistics for its first expansion. Now whether ANet will be willing to share that information as easily as it has about GW2's success is something we will have to see.

Originally posted by fiontar

 

This is an important point to make. 3 Million units is the total to date. I think there were around 2 million units sold by the end of September. An additional milion units in the 4th quarter is very solid for ongoing MMO sales.

However, this also provides some important information on the success of the B2P business model. GW2 produced $110US revenue in Q4. Unit Sales directly from Arenanet may provide $60/unit revenue, but with the wholesale prices for units sold through other retailers, the average revenue per unti sold would be less than $60/unit.

The wholesale price is probably closer to $36/unit. It's not unreasonable to guesstimate that the average revenue per unit is somewhere around $45. That would mean ~$65 million in revenue was produced via gem sales. That's pretty healthy revenue. Roughly the equivalent of the revenue produced by a subscription based game with a paying player base of over 1.4 million players! (If all 3 million GW2 accounts were being actively played, that would mean roughly half the revenue per account as a subscription based game, but few AAA MMOs released in recent years can boast of 700,000 active, paying subscribers).

These numbers look even better, relative to the competition, when you consider how many of the AAA P2P titles released in recent years have transitioned to F2P models, in some cases less than a year after the initial release.

GW2 will continue to build the total player base via box sales over time. Among that playerbase, people will come and go as far as active play time goes, but the expanding pool should continue to provide enough active, gem purchasing players to maintain and even grow the revenue stream over time.

How is anything an indication of success or failure at this point? For an MMO to be successful it must overcome more hurdles than simply selling boxes, that goes for the B2P model point as well. An MMO's success greatly depends on how relevant it remains over a course of years not the first few months.

My major gripe with this form of success calculation is that many MMO's sell well when they release, be it 1-2 million or even 3 it really doesn't mean a game is going to be successful at offering a MMO experience. These are sales based on hype for the most part.

Come back two years from now and such a point will be relevant as well as accurate if things remain on the up for A-net.

Based on word of mouth right now, the retention based aspects of the game are suffering from some series problems. Much like they were in TOR at this point of it's life, the main factor here for success is how they deal with those issues.

Sucess for a game is when it provides value for money for the players and a profit for the developer.  GW2 is a success based on this criteria alone.  In addition it is  hard to see the game not lasting for years considering the pedigree and that fact users can freely drop out and return at any time. 

Not to mention the fact that even mediocre mmorgs can last for years.......

Originally posted by Distopia

Originally posted by fiontar

 

This is an important point to make. 3 Million units is the total to date. I think there were around 2 million units sold by the end of September. An additional milion units in the 4th quarter is very solid for ongoing MMO sales.

However, this also provides some important information on the success of the B2P business model. GW2 produced $110US revenue in Q4. Unit Sales directly from Arenanet may provide $60/unit revenue, but with the wholesale prices for units sold through other retailers, the average revenue per unti sold would be less than $60/unit.

The wholesale price is probably closer to $36/unit. It's not unreasonable to guesstimate that the average revenue per unit is somewhere around $45. That would mean ~$65 million in revenue was produced via gem sales. That's pretty healthy revenue. Roughly the equivalent of the revenue produced by a subscription based game with a paying player base of over 1.4 million players! (If all 3 million GW2 accounts were being actively played, that would mean roughly half the revenue per account as a subscription based game, but few AAA MMOs released in recent years can boast of 700,000 active, paying subscribers).

These numbers look even better, relative to the competition, when you consider how many of the AAA P2P titles released in recent years have transitioned to F2P models, in some cases less than a year after the initial release.

GW2 will continue to build the total player base via box sales over time. Among that playerbase, people will come and go as far as active play time goes, but the expanding pool should continue to provide enough active, gem purchasing players to maintain and even grow the revenue stream over time.

How is anything an indication of success or failure at this point? For an MMO to be successful it must overcome more hurdles than simply selling boxes, that goes for the B2P model point as well. An MMO's success greatly depends on how relevant it remains over a course of years not the first few months.

My major gripe with this form of success calculation is that many MMO's sell well when they release, be it 1-2 million or even 3 it really doesn't mean a game is going to be successful at offering a MMO experience. These are sales based on hype for the most part.

Come back two years from now and such a point will be relevant as well as accurate if things remain on the up for A-net.

Based on word of mouth right now, the retention based aspects of the game are suffering from some series problems. Much like they were in TOR at this point of it's life, the main factor here for success is how they deal with those issues.

It is quite simple.

GW2 has been out for over 4 months now.

In April 2012, SWTOR was out for 4 months - Layoffs.

Around that time (or even before) Blizzard did some layoffs (most in customer service) to accomodate the loss in subs.

TERA launched in the west in May, layoffs in August.

TSW launched in August, layoffs in September.

Trion "frozen" End of Nations (laying off 19 dudes and moving end of nation developement in house) and then proceeded to lay off 40 people (a third) shortly after launching Storm Legion.

Companies are very swift adjusting to lesser results.

Originally posted by fiontar

Originally posted by Nadia

Originally posted by Yamota

I am saying that 3 million sold units for a triple A B2P RPG is nothing special. Many B2P RPGs sold more than that and D3 was just one example, so 3 million is perhaps above average for a triple A title.

Hell even subscriber based RPGs like AoC and SW:TOR sold over a million units, so 3 million for a B2P one is nothing special.

context from wiki -- this is all time sales -- not just sales for 5 months

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_PC_video_games

 

GW2 is still coming to China

http://massively.joystiq.com/2012/08/30/guild-wars-2-is-heading-to-china/

 

i could be wrong but i think its realistic that GW2 will sell at least 10 million over a 3 year period

-- if it does, that places GW2 in top 10 PC games of all time for best sellers

 

This is an important point to make. 3 Million units is the total to date. I think there were around 2 million units sold by the end of September. An additional milion units in the 4th quarter is very solid for ongoing MMO sales.

However, this also provides some important information on the success of the B2P business model. GW2 produced $110US revenue in Q4. Unit Sales directly from Arenanet may provide $60/unit revenue, but with the wholesale prices for units sold through other retailers, the average revenue per unti sold would be less than $60/unit.

The wholesale price is probably closer to $36/unit. It's not unreasonable to guesstimate that the average revenue per unit is somewhere around $45. That would mean ~$65 million in revenue was produced via gem sales. That's pretty healthy revenue. Roughly the equivalent of the revenue produced by a subscription based game with a paying player base of over 1.4 million players! (If all 3 million GW2 accounts were being actively played, that would mean roughly half the revenue per account as a subscription based game, but few AAA MMOs released in recent years can boast of 700,000 active, paying subscribers).

These numbers look even better, relative to the competition, when you consider how many of the AAA P2P titles released in recent years have transitioned to F2P models, in some cases less than a year after the initial release.

GW2 will continue to build the total player base via box sales over time. Among that playerbase, people will come and go as far as active play time goes, but the expanding pool should continue to provide enough active, gem purchasing players to maintain and even grow the revenue stream over time.

NcSoft get $48 dollars out of the $60.

http://www.gamebreaker.tv/mmorpg/guild0-wars-2-thanksgiving-in-tyria/

Guessing this is great news for Ncsoft since Gw2 and Blade & Souls which last  heard seemed to be doing well in Korea were they're two main drivers of revenue.

Originally posted by Warband

Originally posted by fiontar

Originally posted by Nadia

Originally posted by Yamota

I am saying that 3 million sold units for a triple A B2P RPG is nothing special. Many B2P RPGs sold more than that and D3 was just one example, so 3 million is perhaps above average for a triple A title.

Hell even subscriber based RPGs like AoC and SW:TOR sold over a million units, so 3 million for a B2P one is nothing special.

context from wiki -- this is all time sales -- not just sales for 5 months

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_PC_video_games

 

GW2 is still coming to China

http://massively.joystiq.com/2012/08/30/guild-wars-2-is-heading-to-china/

 

i could be wrong but i think its realistic that GW2 will sell at least 10 million over a 3 year period

-- if it does, that places GW2 in top 10 PC games of all time for best sellers

 

This is an important point to make. 3 Million units is the total to date. I think there were around 2 million units sold by the end of September. An additional milion units in the 4th quarter is very solid for ongoing MMO sales.

However, this also provides some important information on the success of the B2P business model. GW2 produced $110US revenue in Q4. Unit Sales directly from Arenanet may provide $60/unit revenue, but with the wholesale prices for units sold through other retailers, the average revenue per unti sold would be less than $60/unit.

The wholesale price is probably closer to $36/unit. It's not unreasonable to guesstimate that the average revenue per unit is somewhere around $45. That would mean ~$65 million in revenue was produced via gem sales. That's pretty healthy revenue. Roughly the equivalent of the revenue produced by a subscription based game with a paying player base of over 1.4 million players! (If all 3 million GW2 accounts were being actively played, that would mean roughly half the revenue per account as a subscription based game, but few AAA MMOs released in recent years can boast of 700,000 active, paying subscribers).

These numbers look even better, relative to the competition, when you consider how many of the AAA P2P titles released in recent years have transitioned to F2P models, in some cases less than a year after the initial release.

GW2 will continue to build the total player base via box sales over time. Among that playerbase, people will come and go as far as active play time goes, but the expanding pool should continue to provide enough active, gem purchasing players to maintain and even grow the revenue stream over time.

NcSoft get $48 dollars out of the $60.

http://www.gamebreaker.tv/mmorpg/guild0-wars-2-thanksgiving-in-tyria/

Guessing this is great news for Ncsoft since Gw2 and Blade & Souls which last  heard seemed to be doing well in Korea were they're two main drivers of revenue.

 

 

Didn't the game have around $45-$46 mill in revenues at the end of 3rd quarter 2012?At that point there were 2 mill plus box sales.End of 3rd quarter was Sept 30 and 2 mill was announced as sold on Sept 13th.

Not saying they did bad,but $48 of $60 would be probably $18 plus dollar's over what companies actually get.Pretty sure I saw the game on sale online for $40 over the holidays,it was a short sale but still.I don't see a store taking an $8 loss even for a day or 2.

$48 a box just doesn't come close to the financial's I read.

Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter

How is anything an indication of success or failure at this point? For an MMO to be successful it must overcome more hurdles than simply selling boxes, that goes for the B2P model point as well. An MMO's success greatly depends on how relevant it remains over a course of years not the first few months.

My major gripe with this form of success calculation is that many MMO's sell well when they release, be it 1-2 million or even 3 it really doesn't mean a game is going to be successful at offering a MMO experience. These are sales based on hype for the most part.

Come back two years from now and such a point will be relevant as well as accurate if things remain on the up for A-net.

Based on word of mouth right now, the retention based aspects of the game are suffering from some series problems. Much like they were in TOR at this point of it's life, the main factor here for success is how they deal with those issues.

It is quite simple.

GW2 has been out for over 4 months now.

In April 2012, SWTOR was out for 4 months - Layoffs.

Around that time (or even before) Blizzard did some layoffs (most in customer service) to accomodate the loss in subs.

TERA launched in the west in May, layoffs in August.

TSW launched in August, layoffs in September.

Trion "frozen" End of Nations (laying off 19 dudes and moving end of nation developement in house) and then proceeded to lay off 40 people (a third) shortly after launching Storm Legion.

 

Companies are very swift adjusting to lesser results.

All this says is that those other games didn't perform to expectations in terms of subs, for which ever reason pertaining to the individual game. It's no secret that expectations for GW2's release have been met. They passed hurdle one with that. Now they have to clear several more, like I said before, those can not be passed in mere months.

Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter

Originally posted by Doogiehowser

Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter

Originally posted by Karteli

Originally posted by mikahr

Originally posted by Karteli

Originally posted by evilastro
No matter what anyone says or who recognized GW2 as a good game, trolls are going to troll. I'm sorry that the game is so successful and has so many supporters, it must really kill you inside.

Does this game really have more supporters than SWTOR?

 

My server is a ghost town.  Granted SWTOR has 20 servers, and GW2 has 10, Whenever I log onto SWTOR I see other people,  in GW2 I could really use a Duke Nukem mirror, so at least I could see myself.

Really? SWTOR has 20 and GW2 10??

SWTOR has 20, yeah. (reduced from 250 last year).

 

And GW2 servers are ghost towns.  It's fine if you want to defend GW2 .. blame it on people in dungeons .. blame it on how everyone is so spread out in the "vast" world.  GW2 is about as populated as SWTOR, from what it seems.  Go a long time without anyone, then see someone 10-30 minutes later.

According to XFire metrics SWTOR has less than half the players.

/facepalm

So the person I quote can talk about xfire but then I cant use xfire to respond to him?

Let me guess.

XFire can be used to:

-> Show that GW2 numbers droped from launch.

XFire can't be used to:

-> say it is #5 game in XFire  behind LoL, COD4 & COD2 and WoW.

-> point that the launch numbers from where GW2 drop were even higher than WoW:MOP launch numbers.

-> point that GW2 has a population in XFire of around 2/3 of XFire WoW population.

-> point that SWTOR has less than half GW2 population on XFire.

Do you need an explanation for why what you through sarcasm consider to be ridiculous very may well be the actual case?

Originally posted by Eir_S

Originally posted by Karteli

Originally posted by Eir_S

Originally posted by Alber_gamer

Dunno. Black Ops 2 sold 11M copies in one week. GW2 sold what, 3M in 5 months? Easy to see which of those two games was the successfull one.

 

And before someone says "but Black Ops 2 isn't neither a mmo nor a RPG" - GW2 wasn't even neither the best mmo nor the best RPG of 2012, as the most reputable sites (mmorpg and IGN) have shown and confirmed through their users and expert critics respectively.

No it just won PC game of the year on IGN... I don't like IGN much but I think that's pretty important lol

Who voted in the IGN poll? 

 

Or any Game of the year poll?

 

Ahh .. those people who would vote, and felt stronfly about a game.

 

Lets consider other sources... but also, only those those inclined to vote at IGN will contribute.

 

See the similarity ??

 

GW2 is a non-#1 award as far as I'm concerned.  It might be #1 to you .. but the metrics are off.  Works both ways.

It was #1 on a ton of websites, most notably MMO sites.  The metrics aren't off, just your bias.

Also, um.. the staff voted it PC game of the year.  I don't know who you thought it was.

Ever since Massively gave SWTOR a "Game of the Year" award, people have reason to misstrust all official reviews for any MMORPG. 

Originally posted by Distopia

Originally posted by fiontar

 

This is an important point to make. 3 Million units is the total to date. I think there were around 2 million units sold by the end of September. An additional milion units in the 4th quarter is very solid for ongoing MMO sales.

However, this also provides some important information on the success of the B2P business model. GW2 produced $110US revenue in Q4. Unit Sales directly from Arenanet may provide $60/unit revenue, but with the wholesale prices for units sold through other retailers, the average revenue per unti sold would be less than $60/unit.

The wholesale price is probably closer to $36/unit. It's not unreasonable to guesstimate that the average revenue per unit is somewhere around $45. That would mean ~$65 million in revenue was produced via gem sales. That's pretty healthy revenue. Roughly the equivalent of the revenue produced by a subscription based game with a paying player base of over 1.4 million players! (If all 3 million GW2 accounts were being actively played, that would mean roughly half the revenue per account as a subscription based game, but few AAA MMOs released in recent years can boast of 700,000 active, paying subscribers).

These numbers look even better, relative to the competition, when you consider how many of the AAA P2P titles released in recent years have transitioned to F2P models, in some cases less than a year after the initial release.

GW2 will continue to build the total player base via box sales over time. Among that playerbase, people will come and go as far as active play time goes, but the expanding pool should continue to provide enough active, gem purchasing players to maintain and even grow the revenue stream over time.

How is anything an indication of success or failure at this point? For an MMO to be successful it must overcome more hurdles than simply selling boxes, that goes for the B2P model point as well. An MMO's success greatly depends on how relevant it remains over a course of years not the first few months.

My major gripe with this form of success calculation is that many MMO's sell well when they release, be it 1-2 million or even 3 it really doesn't mean a game is going to be successful at offering a MMO experience. These are sales based on hype for the most part.

Come back two years from now and such a point will be relevant as well as accurate if things remain on the up for A-net.

Based on word of mouth right now, the retention based aspects of the game are suffering from some series problems. Much like they were in TOR at this point of it's life, the main factor here for success is how they deal with those issues.

You will dismiss the actual numbers, because it's too soon to judge success, but then you will look to "word of mouth" as an indication of the current state of the game?

GW2 is doing better at the 4+ month mark than almost any other MMO since WoW, based on the numbers. Time will tell how well it maintains that success over time, but it is clearly a stand out success to this point. As a player with almost 800 hours played and much experience in the genre, I can say that the ingredients are all there to ensure ongoing success and Arenanet has outlined ongoing development that will just solidify the viability of the game.

The game is a clear success to date and all indications are that it will build on that success moving forward.

Originally posted by fiontar

 

You will dismiss the actual numbers, because it's too soon to judge success, but then you will look to "word of mouth" as an indication of the current state of the game?

GW2 is doing better at the 4+ month mark than almost any other MMO since WoW, based on the numbers. Time will tell how well it maintains that success over time, but it is clearly a stand out success to this point. As a player with almost 800 hours played and much experience in the genre, I can say that the ingredients are all there to ensure ongoing success and Arenanet has outlined ongoing development that will just solidify the viability of the game.

The game is a clear success to date and all indications are that it will build on that success moving forward.

It's not about dismissing the numbers at all, at least that's totally unrelated to seeing the word of mouth flying around at present, as well as A-nets own admissions that substantiate that word of mouth.

Edit: I should add that I acknowledged above they've passed a milestone in that they've met or may have even surpassed launch sales expectations. That's just one of many hurdles though, as I said in my original post.

Also note that I didn't say it has failed either, I just personally think it is far too early to say either way.

Originally posted by Slappy1

Originally posted by Warband

Originally posted by fiontar

Originally posted by Nadia

Originally posted by Yamota

I am saying that 3 million sold units for a triple A B2P RPG is nothing special. Many B2P RPGs sold more than that and D3 was just one example, so 3 million is perhaps above average for a triple A title.

Hell even subscriber based RPGs like AoC and SW:TOR sold over a million units, so 3 million for a B2P one is nothing special.

context from wiki -- this is all time sales -- not just sales for 5 months

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_PC_video_games

 

GW2 is still coming to China

http://massively.joystiq.com/2012/08/30/guild-wars-2-is-heading-to-china/

 

i could be wrong but i think its realistic that GW2 will sell at least 10 million over a 3 year period

-- if it does, that places GW2 in top 10 PC games of all time for best sellers

 

This is an important point to make. 3 Million units is the total to date. I think there were around 2 million units sold by the end of September. An additional milion units in the 4th quarter is very solid for ongoing MMO sales.

However, this also provides some important information on the success of the B2P business model. GW2 produced $110US revenue in Q4. Unit Sales directly from Arenanet may provide $60/unit revenue, but with the wholesale prices for units sold through other retailers, the average revenue per unti sold would be less than $60/unit.

The wholesale price is probably closer to $36/unit. It's not unreasonable to guesstimate that the average revenue per unit is somewhere around $45. That would mean ~$65 million in revenue was produced via gem sales. That's pretty healthy revenue. Roughly the equivalent of the revenue produced by a subscription based game with a paying player base of over 1.4 million players! (If all 3 million GW2 accounts were being actively played, that would mean roughly half the revenue per account as a subscription based game, but few AAA MMOs released in recent years can boast of 700,000 active, paying subscribers).

These numbers look even better, relative to the competition, when you consider how many of the AAA P2P titles released in recent years have transitioned to F2P models, in some cases less than a year after the initial release.

GW2 will continue to build the total player base via box sales over time. Among that playerbase, people will come and go as far as active play time goes, but the expanding pool should continue to provide enough active, gem purchasing players to maintain and even grow the revenue stream over time.

NcSoft get $48 dollars out of the $60.

http://www.gamebreaker.tv/mmorpg/guild0-wars-2-thanksgiving-in-tyria/

Guessing this is great news for Ncsoft since Gw2 and Blade & Souls which last  heard seemed to be doing well in Korea were they're two main drivers of revenue.

 

 

Didn't the game have around $45-$46 mill in revenues at the end of 3rd quarter 2012?At that point there were 2 mill plus box sales.End of 3rd quarter was Sept 30 and 2 mill was announced as sold on Sept 13th.

Not saying they did bad,but $48 of $60 would be probably $18 plus dollar's over what companies actually get.Pretty sure I saw the game on sale online for $40 over the holidays,it was a short sale but still.I don't see a store taking an $8 loss even for a day or 2.

$48 a box just doesn't come close to the financial's I read.

The analysts make an educated guess, just like we do. As I pointed out, the revenue for digitial copies sold directly by Arenanet will be much higher per box than the revenue generated via retailer sales. My guess was that the average revenue per box was ~$45 per unit sold. $48/unit is close enough I'm not going to argue with it, but it is still just a guess.

As far as Q3 revenue, pre-sales started in Q2 and many speculated that 400,000 to 800,000+ units were pre-purchased by the end of June. I would think that some portion of that revenue went on the books in Q2? (I think I remember hearing that only Arenanet Direct pre-sales were counted in Q2, since pre-purchases via retailers weren't considered any more concrete than pre-orders and retailers didn't need to pony up the wholesale purchases until close to release).

In any event, revenue points towards a fair level of success on generating revenue via gem purchases, which along with ongoing box sales is key to the success of the game. With a micro-transaction, buy to play business model, revenue trumps all other numbers and GW2 seems to be generating very healthy revenue. 

Originally posted by Distopia

Originally posted by fiontar

 

You will dismiss the actual numbers, because it's too soon to judge success, but then you will look to "word of mouth" as an indication of the current state of the game?

GW2 is doing better at the 4+ month mark than almost any other MMO since WoW, based on the numbers. Time will tell how well it maintains that success over time, but it is clearly a stand out success to this point. As a player with almost 800 hours played and much experience in the genre, I can say that the ingredients are all there to ensure ongoing success and Arenanet has outlined ongoing development that will just solidify the viability of the game.

The game is a clear success to date and all indications are that it will build on that success moving forward.

It's not about dismissing the numbers at all, at least that's totally unrelated to seeing the word of mouth flying around at present, as well as A-nets own admissions that substantiate that word of mouth.

Well, we hear negative "word of mouth" on in game population that many active players, myself included, can say are greatly exaggerated. People are still having issues transferring to 80%+ of all game servers due to population caps. This is even with the caps having been recently raised by a small percentage, plus the safe assumption that the average hours played per account per month has almost certainly seen some decline as players fall into sustainable play patterns beyond the initial rush.

Is there churn? I'm sure there is. However, there is clearly new box sales growth to counterbalance churn. Also, churn may mean something very different with GW2 than with a subscription game. Many people who dip out of active play for what ever reason may dip in and out many times over the course of a year, where as most subscription churn represents long term or permanent loss of players/revenue.

Also, though burn out does occur in any MMO, it would make sense that people who "wash out" of the game quickly are also the least likely to have made regular gem store purchases during their visit to the game. People who love the game and are more likely to remain as active players are probably also the group with the highest average per month layout for gem purchases. The churn rate among people who don't contribute any ongoing revenue is greatly diminished in it's importance, as long as there are enough active players to support healthy server populations and produce ongoing revenue.

The game world is huge and there are many things to do not only in the game world, but outside of it. Having so many "full" servers more than four months after launch is a very good sign and the sense that "zones aren't as full as they used to be" can be mostly attributed to the increased distribution of the playerbase throughout a very expansive game.