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The Pub at MMORPG.COM  » XFire - As MMO population estimation tool

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298 posts found
  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10942

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

12/27/12 7:38:17 AM#101


Originally posted by Gdemami

Originally posted by lizardbones

I didn't imply that it had anything to do with their gaming habits.

Then it is irrelevant...

We went through this couple of times already and you only keep repeating yourself, ignoring any points raised or just talk something unrelated.

Not much more I can say until you actually address what one writes...




You are not making very good points. When you make a good point, maybe I won't have to repeat myself. You are also picking out specific sentences in the conversation, so the posts lack any sort of context for anyone else reading it. I expect the next post will have specific words pasted together from other posts.

Every person who contributes results to XFire statistics has made a choice to install XFire. That's a bias. The general population of gamers do not exhibit the same bias, otherwise most or all gamers would have XFire installed and would be using it. It's an indicator that the people who install XFire may not be representative of the general population of gamers. This is relevant if the idea is to use XFire as a population estimation tool. If the bias is acknowledged, and then if necessary adjusted for, it means the difference between getting good information and getting noise.

I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  greenreen

Elite Member

Joined: 11/19/12
Posts: 1500

12/27/12 7:39:11 AM#102
Originally posted by zymurgeist
Originally posted by Yamota
Originally posted by Loke666

Actually estimating sub numbers on X-fire is kinda like estimating who will win an election by asking your friends... And by how much based on it.

It is useful for measuring large trends in a game, if a certain game drops 75% in a few months that is bad (not counting the first 2 weeks after launch, we MMO players take time of for some games and always play more then).

Certain games players and certain countries use more Xfire than others. You need more teamspeak in some game than others and the Xfire users are often a rather small part of the actual players so you dont have enough data for sub numbers and should be careful with trends less than 25% or so.

I would say it have some use but only for large dips and ups in population.

No, it is not. I dont know anyone on XFire so the selection is not biased based on who is my friend and not.

Is XFire perfectly representetive? Certainly not. But, based on what I have seen, it is good enough to get a rough estimate. Maybe +/- 10%.

 And that's the crux of it. It's all based on opinions of  Xfires validity. There is no reliable verifying data for your assertions. Maybe it's +/- 10% but then again it could be +/- 50% or +/- 150% . It likely isn't the same over a broad spectrum of games.  Yet time and again we're expected to swallow this as proof of one crackpot theory or another. It's unpalatable to say the least.

It's nowhere near 10% off, I already posted something that shows that they are counting more people than exist on the planet with this 1/522 number but they didn't address it. It's just glazed over and buried in the pages of arguments. This person has made their mind up. They didn't post to discuss, they posted to be right. Well, they are wrong because the numbers show it. What can you do if they won't listen. When you stop debating they keep posting saying they won as if noone is saying anything valid in retort. Well so be it, they won, in their head lol

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10942

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

12/27/12 7:39:50 AM#103


Originally posted by zymurgeist

Originally posted by Yamota

Originally posted by Loke666 Actually estimating sub numbers on X-fire is kinda like estimating who will win an election by asking your friends... And by how much based on it. It is useful for measuring large trends in a game, if a certain game drops 75% in a few months that is bad (not counting the first 2 weeks after launch, we MMO players take time of for some games and always play more then). Certain games players and certain countries use more Xfire than others. You need more teamspeak in some game than others and the Xfire users are often a rather small part of the actual players so you dont have enough data for sub numbers and should be careful with trends less than 25% or so. I would say it have some use but only for large dips and ups in population.
No, it is not. I dont know anyone on XFire so the selection is not biased based on who is my friend and not. Is XFire perfectly representetive? Certainly not. But, based on what I have seen, it is good enough to get a rough estimate. Maybe +/- 10%.
 And that's the crux of it. It's all based on opinions of  Xfires validity. There is no reliable verifying data for your assertions. Maybe it's +/- 10% but then again it could be +/- 50% or +/- 150% . It likely isn't the same over a broad spectrum of games.  Yet time and again we're expected to swallow this as proof of one crackpot theory or another. It's unpalatable to say the least.



I don't know how long I'm going to keep it up, but the post just above yours is an initial attempt at seeing how accurate or consistent XFire is for a known population.

I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  Axxar

Hard Core Member

Joined: 12/09/08
Posts: 2062

"See how I reward those who fail me!"

12/27/12 7:49:15 AM#104
Pretty bad for judging populations, but good for looking at trends. Ie. all new MMOs coming out get played less and less, and this is reflected well by xfire.

"Tiny clown, he got wet. I was talking to a psychic and I can't sleep in the ozone. There are too many different peanuts, looking sad.

  Yamota

Elite Member

Joined: 10/05/03
Posts: 6643

Gaming should be about fun, not gender equality.

 
OP  12/27/12 7:52:08 AM#105
Originally posted by zymurgeist
Originally posted by Yamota
Originally posted by Loke666

Actually estimating sub numbers on X-fire is kinda like estimating who will win an election by asking your friends... And by how much based on it.

It is useful for measuring large trends in a game, if a certain game drops 75% in a few months that is bad (not counting the first 2 weeks after launch, we MMO players take time of for some games and always play more then).

Certain games players and certain countries use more Xfire than others. You need more teamspeak in some game than others and the Xfire users are often a rather small part of the actual players so you dont have enough data for sub numbers and should be careful with trends less than 25% or so.

I would say it have some use but only for large dips and ups in population.

No, it is not. I dont know anyone on XFire so the selection is not biased based on who is my friend and not.

Is XFire perfectly representetive? Certainly not. But, based on what I have seen, it is good enough to get a rough estimate. Maybe +/- 10%.

 And that's the crux of it. It's all based on opinions of  Xfires validity. There is no reliable verifying data for your assertions. Maybe it's +/- 10% but then again it could be +/- 50% or +/- 150% . It likely isn't the same over a broad spectrum of games.  Yet time and again we're expected to swallow this as proof of one crackpot theory or another. It's unpalatable to say the least.

No, this is all in your heads. Atleast I have not said that we should swallow anything as proof. It seems like there are some people who cannot talk about a subject unless it is 100% verifiable and scientific and those people better stay well away from XFire discussions.

What XFire is, is the best tool we currently got. Is it good enough? Does it matter if its the only tool we got?

But I digress, why do you people have the need to come to these threads with people who are trying to use any tools available to get an estimate just to bash them? Don't think XFire is valid, then why post over and over again saying it is not.

Ok we got it the 10th time or the 100th time. Now move on already!

  Yamota

Elite Member

Joined: 10/05/03
Posts: 6643

Gaming should be about fun, not gender equality.

 
OP  12/27/12 7:53:53 AM#106
So to try and get this thread back on track. Are there any MMOs beside Eve which has published their sub. data or which can be extrapolated by any other accurate means to calculate the XFire factor?
  jpnz

Novice Member

Joined: 6/29/06
Posts: 3565

12/27/12 7:58:35 AM#107
Originally posted by Yamota
So to try and get this thread back on track. Are there any MMOs beside Eve which has published their sub. data or which can be extrapolated by any other accurate means to calculate the XFire factor?

WoW's sub numbers are public and Blizzard loves to update the figures whenever they have a chance to.

If you have historical data (no idea how far back XFIRE can go), LoTRO, DDO also had historical data before they went F2P a few years back.

LoL has some numbers which was released recently.

Gdemami -
Informing people about your thoughts and impressions is not a review, it's a blog.

  zymurgeist

Hard Core Member

Joined: 12/24/04
Posts: 5210

12/27/12 8:03:11 AM#108
Originally posted by Yamota
Originally posted by zymurgeist
Originally posted by Yamota
Originally posted by Loke666

Actually estimating sub numbers on X-fire is kinda like estimating who will win an election by asking your friends... And by how much based on it.

It is useful for measuring large trends in a game, if a certain game drops 75% in a few months that is bad (not counting the first 2 weeks after launch, we MMO players take time of for some games and always play more then).

Certain games players and certain countries use more Xfire than others. You need more teamspeak in some game than others and the Xfire users are often a rather small part of the actual players so you dont have enough data for sub numbers and should be careful with trends less than 25% or so.

I would say it have some use but only for large dips and ups in population.

No, it is not. I dont know anyone on XFire so the selection is not biased based on who is my friend and not.

Is XFire perfectly representetive? Certainly not. But, based on what I have seen, it is good enough to get a rough estimate. Maybe +/- 10%.

 And that's the crux of it. It's all based on opinions of  Xfires validity. There is no reliable verifying data for your assertions. Maybe it's +/- 10% but then again it could be +/- 50% or +/- 150% . It likely isn't the same over a broad spectrum of games.  Yet time and again we're expected to swallow this as proof of one crackpot theory or another. It's unpalatable to say the least.

No, this is all in your heads. Atleast I have not said that we should swallow anything as proof. It seems like there are some people who cannot talk about a subject unless it is 100% verifiable and scientific and those people better stay well away from XFire discussions.

What XFire is, is the best tool we currently got. Is it good enough? Does it matter if its the only tool we got?

But I digress, why do you people have the need to come to these threads with people who are trying to use any tools available to get an estimate just to bash them? Don't think XFire is valid, then why post over and over again saying it is not.

Ok we got it the 10th time or the 100th time. Now move on already!

 It's 0% verifiable. Less than 0% verifiable actually because it has been shown to be unreliable many times. There is no corellation. If the best tool you have for driving a nail is a rotten bananna would you even try to  use it? Your assertion that it is in any way a tool for estimating game populations is provably false why do you keep insisting it's useful?

You apparently didn't get it the 10th time or the 100th time or the 1000th time. Move on already!

"Strong and bitter words indicate a weak cause" ~Victor Hugo

  ZombieKen

Advanced Member

Joined: 3/30/10
Posts: 4410

Zombie - Dead but still moving.

12/27/12 8:06:07 AM#109

So how do I read these numbers  WoW link  Players and Hours per Day.

 

The hours per day part I'm guessing is a cumulative for all sessions, and then averaged over the period?

 

Players.  Would that be average number of players per day, or total number of players for the period?

 

MSOTSG with PPE : Massively Single-player Online Task-driven Storyline Game with Purchasable Performance Enhancements *grin*

  Yamota

Elite Member

Joined: 10/05/03
Posts: 6643

Gaming should be about fun, not gender equality.

 
OP  12/27/12 8:09:04 AM#110
Originally posted by jpnz
Originally posted by Yamota
So to try and get this thread back on track. Are there any MMOs beside Eve which has published their sub. data or which can be extrapolated by any other accurate means to calculate the XFire factor?

WoW's sub numbers are public and Blizzard loves to update the figures whenever they have a chance to.

If you have historical data (no idea how far back XFIRE can go), LoTRO, DDO also had historical data before they went F2P a few years back.

LoL has some numbers which was released recently.

Do you know the WoWs sub number in the West or where I can find them?

  Yamota

Elite Member

Joined: 10/05/03
Posts: 6643

Gaming should be about fun, not gender equality.

 
OP  12/27/12 8:10:31 AM#111
Originally posted by XAPGames

So how do I read these numbers  WoW link  Players and Hours per Day.

 

The hours per day part I'm guessing is a cumulative for all sessions, and then averaged over the period?

 

Players.  Would that be average number of players per day, or total number of players for the period?

 

Total number of unique players per period (day). 

And hours is the total nr of hours per period, across all players.

  ZombieKen

Advanced Member

Joined: 3/30/10
Posts: 4410

Zombie - Dead but still moving.

12/27/12 8:12:40 AM#112
Originally posted by Yamota
Originally posted by XAPGames

So how do I read these numbers  WoW link  Players and Hours per Day.

 

The hours per day part I'm guessing is a cumulative for all sessions, and then averaged over the period?

 

Players.  Would that be average number of players per day, or total number of players for the period?

 

Total number of unique players per period (day). 

And hours is the total nr of hours per period, across all players.

 

Okay, I got it.  Shows the last day as current data.  Then the chart is just a historical.

MSOTSG with PPE : Massively Single-player Online Task-driven Storyline Game with Purchasable Performance Enhancements *grin*

  Yamota

Elite Member

Joined: 10/05/03
Posts: 6643

Gaming should be about fun, not gender equality.

 
OP  12/27/12 8:13:35 AM#113
Originally posted by zymurgeist
Originally posted by Yamota
Originally posted by zymurgeist
Originally posted by Yamota
Originally posted by Loke666

Actually estimating sub numbers on X-fire is kinda like estimating who will win an election by asking your friends... And by how much based on it.

It is useful for measuring large trends in a game, if a certain game drops 75% in a few months that is bad (not counting the first 2 weeks after launch, we MMO players take time of for some games and always play more then).

Certain games players and certain countries use more Xfire than others. You need more teamspeak in some game than others and the Xfire users are often a rather small part of the actual players so you dont have enough data for sub numbers and should be careful with trends less than 25% or so.

I would say it have some use but only for large dips and ups in population.

No, it is not. I dont know anyone on XFire so the selection is not biased based on who is my friend and not.

Is XFire perfectly representetive? Certainly not. But, based on what I have seen, it is good enough to get a rough estimate. Maybe +/- 10%.

 And that's the crux of it. It's all based on opinions of  Xfires validity. There is no reliable verifying data for your assertions. Maybe it's +/- 10% but then again it could be +/- 50% or +/- 150% . It likely isn't the same over a broad spectrum of games.  Yet time and again we're expected to swallow this as proof of one crackpot theory or another. It's unpalatable to say the least.

No, this is all in your heads. Atleast I have not said that we should swallow anything as proof. It seems like there are some people who cannot talk about a subject unless it is 100% verifiable and scientific and those people better stay well away from XFire discussions.

What XFire is, is the best tool we currently got. Is it good enough? Does it matter if its the only tool we got?

But I digress, why do you people have the need to come to these threads with people who are trying to use any tools available to get an estimate just to bash them? Don't think XFire is valid, then why post over and over again saying it is not.

Ok we got it the 10th time or the 100th time. Now move on already!

 It's 0% verifiable. Less than 0% verifiable actually because it has been shown to be unreliable many times. There is no corellation. If the best tool you have for driving a nail is a rotten bananna would you even try to  use it? Your assertion that it is in any way a tool for estimating game populations is provably false why do you keep insisting it's useful?

You apparently didn't get it the 10th time or the 100th time or the 1000th time. Move on already!

no, I dont agree with your assessment that it is not useful, I think it is. So I am going to use it, regardless of what you think.

And the purpose of this thread was to use XFire as a population measurment tool. You dont find it accurate, great. Move on then. I dont need to move on because this thread is based on the assumption that XFire is accurate.

If you want to debate that then start a thread discussing it and I will happily stay away from it.

  Yamota

Elite Member

Joined: 10/05/03
Posts: 6643

Gaming should be about fun, not gender equality.

 
OP  12/27/12 8:14:20 AM#114
Originally posted by XAPGames
Originally posted by Yamota
Originally posted by XAPGames

So how do I read these numbers  WoW link  Players and Hours per Day.

 

The hours per day part I'm guessing is a cumulative for all sessions, and then averaged over the period?

 

Players.  Would that be average number of players per day, or total number of players for the period?

 

Total number of unique players per period (day). 

And hours is the total nr of hours per period, across all players.

 

Okay, I got it.  Shows the last day as current data.  Then the chart is just a historical.

Yes but unfourtunately the historical data is only for hours played.

  jpnz

Novice Member

Joined: 6/29/06
Posts: 3565

12/27/12 8:21:29 AM#115
Originally posted by Yamota
Originally posted by jpnz
Originally posted by Yamota
So to try and get this thread back on track. Are there any MMOs beside Eve which has published their sub. data or which can be extrapolated by any other accurate means to calculate the XFire factor?

WoW's sub numbers are public and Blizzard loves to update the figures whenever they have a chance to.

If you have historical data (no idea how far back XFIRE can go), LoTRO, DDO also had historical data before they went F2P a few years back.

LoL has some numbers which was released recently.

Do you know the WoWs sub number in the West or where I can find them?

Not right now but there was a way.

Their 2011  / 2010 financial figures had the total amount of $$$ by online products which did not include COD:Elite since it was after their reporting period. (or something like it).

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3064...&find=blizzard

http://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/1121820-Blizzard-Q1-2012-financial-report-WoW-subs/page3

 

Gdemami -
Informing people about your thoughts and impressions is not a review, it's a blog.

  strangiato2112

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 9/21/12
Posts: 1566

12/27/12 8:23:42 AM#116
Originally posted by Yamota
Originally posted by strangiato2112
Originally posted by Yamota

The purpose of this thread is to discuss XFire numbers and from those try to extrapolate MMO playerbase numbers from. The mods of this site said they would support such a thread and sticky it so here is hoping they will.

So lets start by qouting what is said on the site: http://www.mmodata.net/ about X-Fire:

"I just got the Q4 quarterly report from EA, and they report 1,3m subs, so I will add this. My latest estimate of 1,41m subs was pretty generous, however I always try to be conservative in my estimates, whether they are downward or upward. 

What it does show me is that the Xfire numbers are a good indication to base estimates off, purely based on Xfire I would have estimated 1,2m."

So with that in mind, let us start with some theory-crafting. This is the method I use to get estimated player base numbers. I take a game with a known playerbase and from those games calculate what I would call the X-Fire factor. As an example I will use Eve estimated playerbase of 360k subs (only counting the subs in the West as I believe X-Fire is not used much in the East).

Then I divide this sub. number with the X-Fire played per day which for Eve is currently at 690. 

360k/690 = 522 (rounded)

So 522 is the X-Fire factor which I will use to calculate the playerbase of other games. It would be better if I had another game to calculate the same for but currently I dont know any known sub. numbers of any other game. But this is just an example.

So lets use this number to estimate another MMOs playerbase, such as SW:TOR which has a players per day number of 1.471. Multiply this with the X-Fire factor to get an estimated playerbase of SW:TOR:

1.471*522 = 768k (rounded)

Same method for GW 2 gives a playerbase of 2 million.

Reasonable? I think so. Keep in mind that the released sub. numbers for SW:TOR was way back in Q1 2012. And GW 2 has sales of 2 million a month or so after release.

except we know this is complete crap.

 

EQ obvioulsy has a LOT more than 8874 people

EQ2 has a lot more than 17226

EQ2 is certainly over 100k and EQ1 is likely not thar far from 100k.

Rift likely has at least 3x the 62,000 your estimation would suggest.

 

Note that EQ1 has an extremely older player base, EQ2 far older than average. and Rift somewhat older than average.  Your method woould be off on both EQ and EQ2 by a factor of more than 10, and Rift by a factor of probably around 4.

 

These three games are proof enough that one figure wont estimate all games populations.

 

 

This thread title is "Xfire - As MMO population estimation tool" so you can expect its inability to perform that function to be a the topic of dicussion.

If i went on to a heavy metal music forum and started a thread "The Beatles as a Heavy Metal band" how do you think those replies would go?

Well if you dont believe it is a good population estimation tool then why dont you just move on? I find it funny that so many people seem to have this unsufferable needs to show that XFire is innaccurate.

Why?

As for the games you mentioned, I have seen nothing to suggest that those games have the sub. numbers you suggest they do. You got a source for that? If you are referring to MMOData.net, they havent tracked EQ 1 or 2 for over two years.

And your example with beatles is in no way comparable. Classification of music to population estimation by using a tool which shows how many people of said tool plays a particular game? That is the worst example I have ever read.

If you dont think EQ2 has over 100k, fine.  If you dont think they have over 50k, you have no business trying to judge MMORPG populations.  If you dont think Rift has well over 60k people, well...see the last sentence.   These games are proof to anyone capable of rational thinking that your little 'xfire factor' is worthless.  Just accept it an move in.

 

And as for the Beatles analogy, of course it fits.  Beatles are not a heavy metal band.  Xfire is not a MMO population tool.  Sure, you could argue Helter Skelter is a metal song but 99% of the catalog is certainly not heavy metal.  Just like 99% of the time xfire is useless is MMO population estimation.  That one % is the case where we know a sub number to start with and a corresponding # of xfire users.  That is almost never the case, and it only applies to that particular game, not to any other game.

 

You started a thread that suggested it would discuss xfires merits as a population indicator.  When anyone with half a brain comes in and tells you it isnt (except for rare circumstances), perhaps its time to admit you were wrong and move on.

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10942

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

12/27/12 8:24:10 AM#117


Originally posted by jpnz

Originally posted by Yamota So to try and get this thread back on track. Are there any MMOs beside Eve which has published their sub. data or which can be extrapolated by any other accurate means to calculate the XFire factor?
WoW's sub numbers are public and Blizzard loves to update the figures whenever they have a chance to.

If you have historical data (no idea how far back XFIRE can go), LoTRO, DDO also had historical data before they went F2P a few years back.

LoL has some numbers which was released recently.




XFire has an XML interface that can be used by registered users to pull data beyond what is available on the public website. I know the hours played historical data exists, I'm not sure about the number of concurrent players.

** edit **
For instance, without any sort of authentication, the following list of feeds in XML format is available:
http://www.xfire.com/xml/

I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  Daggerjaydo

Novice Member

Joined: 12/16/07
Posts: 121

12/27/12 8:28:56 AM#118

Since the entire population of any game in question doesn't use xfire, you'd have to have a decent random sample size to get accurate statistical information from xfire data.

 

I'm sure xfire can provide a large enough sample size for some games, but the problem is that the sample is not random. (People have to willingly sign up and want to use xfire)

 

Thus xfire data can only be used anecdotally, and can not be considered accurate.

  Yamota

Elite Member

Joined: 10/05/03
Posts: 6643

Gaming should be about fun, not gender equality.

 
OP  12/27/12 4:41:39 PM#119
Originally posted by lizardbones

 


Originally posted by jpnz

Originally posted by Yamota So to try and get this thread back on track. Are there any MMOs beside Eve which has published their sub. data or which can be extrapolated by any other accurate means to calculate the XFire factor?
WoW's sub numbers are public and Blizzard loves to update the figures whenever they have a chance to.

 

If you have historical data (no idea how far back XFIRE can go), LoTRO, DDO also had historical data before they went F2P a few years back.

LoL has some numbers which was released recently.




XFire has an XML interface that can be used by registered users to pull data beyond what is available on the public website. I know the hours played historical data exists, I'm not sure about the number of concurrent players.

** edit **
For instance, without any sort of authentication, the following list of feeds in XML format is available:
http://www.xfire.com/xml/

 

Thanks, but unfourtunately if you try to access the more useful data it requires authentication. 

I asked on their forums for access, let's see what happens.

  Theocritus

Apprentice Member

Joined: 7/15/08
Posts: 3618

12/27/12 6:40:36 PM#120

   You cant use Xfire as a pop tool simply because not every game offers it along with the download...in fact, I have been playing MMOs almsto 15 years and have only had Xfire come up once in all that time as a download option......So lets say GW2 comes with Xfire optional download...Well that puts GW2 at a huge advantage over say TSW which doesnt offer the optional download....WHile there will be some crossover and some TSW users will ahve Xfire, the chances are much higher that GW2 users will have Xfire and TSW users will not.....It simply skews the numbers.

I dont have any facts to back this up, but it also seems that Xfire is geared towards younger gamers who play with their friends (as it is used to see what your friends are playing) rather than older gamers who probably are not as inclined to care about what their friends are playing.

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