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12/26/12 7:02:16 AM#21
Originally posted by Gdemami No, you do not need to use a complete sample, as long as you understand the sample you have whic is impossible with x-fire. That is quite simply the point I have been trying to make and it seems, deep down at least, you understand this yourself. There is a reason WoW is not used along with these types of estimation. GW2 would have an active playing population of over 5 million if the OPs method was used so it is disregarded thus showing the inherant flaw. GW is healthy but obviously not getting all those players so it illustrates exactly why this type of thread is white knighted by the few and understandably taken as unreliable by the rest. |
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12/26/12 7:07:10 AM#22
Wrong. "factor 522" represents % of EVE players using xfire and no more. You basically say that because certain % of EVE players use xfire, same % is used by other game which is something you have no base for - you only proved xfire <-> EVE online relation.
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12/26/12 7:10:35 AM#23
The Secret World's XFire numbers are bogus, the game installs /runs it when you reinstall or download it.
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12/26/12 7:12:04 AM#24
Irony and funny is that your argument why xfire numbers are "impossible" is that the sample is incomplete... I am not saying OP method is correct but I say that you are not correct either. Xfire numbers can and do provide indication of trends and population estimates within same sample(MMO) because there is empirical evidence of such correlations. |
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12/26/12 7:39:44 AM#25
Originally posted by Gdemami Actually I do think it can be used to look at trends within the sample. The part where we disagree is I do not feel the x-fire sample is representative of the people who play MMOs across the board. |
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12/26/12 7:50:32 AM#26
Originally posted by Zalmon I agree - we have discussed this AD NAUSEUM!! XFire IS NOT a good tool for populations. we don't know the % of players for each game using it - some maybe 0% some may be 100%. It is not useful at all. Only if you know the EXACT % of players of a particular game using XFire, then it may be useful. Otherwise, it is just a measure of XFire users.  "You can fool some of the people all the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all the time." Abraham Lincoln |
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12/26/12 7:54:10 AM#27
Originally posted by Mannish I agree. It was clearly an infliuence of GW2 fans that were pushing to have these topics closed. However, I wonder if it's still too soon. Still a lot of rabid defenders around. Release a game with a very large established fanbase from 10+ years of bnet history when the market was still emerging and the casual base had not yet been established, thus ripe for harvesting a momentious self perpetuating playerbase people never leave because they have X hours invested in their characters, and their friends and everyone else plays anyway. Not discounting Blizzard quality... but WoW's success is as much about perfect timing as it is quality, if not more so. - Derros |
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12/26/12 7:55:40 AM#28
Xfire numbers are one way (not particularly good, mind you) to estimate population trends (as in, population incresing or decreasing), but not as a general population guide. First off, a disclaimer, I don't work professionally with statistics, but I have taken several courses about it in college, so take with a grain of salt. For any data to be statistically significant it must comply with several criteria, a big one of them is that the sample size must be completely random, as in, any member of the total universe being studied must have equal chances of becoming part of the sample, and any serious discussion about statistical data must deal about what measures were taken (if any) to ensure this. Xfire users are not nearly a random sample, since there is a specific target market for it. The fact that the numbers for total population for EA (he doesn't mention a specific game, does he?) fit the expected from Xfire only means that their average player fits the Xfire user profile. (just to mention 2 games), maybe players of WoW fit the profile, while maybe players of EVE don't, in which case the numbers will be skewed towards WoW. Likewise, while the numbers might be used to estimate players increase or decrease, it might also mean just increase or decrease within the players that fit the Xfire user profile. What can men do against such reckless hate? |
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12/26/12 7:55:52 AM#29
I'm stickying this as long as this discussion can be kept civil.
Michael "MikeB" Bitton |
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12/26/12 7:56:10 AM#30
Originally posted by Yamota Disregarding the "XFire is a poor sample" argument (which I agreee with, but nvm that), played per day is a very poor basis for deciding sub numbers, because some games are more casual than others and that skews the numbers even more. Of course, there's correlation between hours played and sub numbers, but you're going through two correlations to get to a number and that's inaccurate at best, especially in social studies. XFire numbers can be used as to make educated(ish) guesses, but they're way too inaccurate to be used in calculations. |
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12/26/12 7:59:05 AM#31
Here's an idea... let's not discuss whether XFire is accurate or not and just for the sake of discussion, assume it is. So, now that we got that out of the way, let's talk about numbers. Remember, we are just "pretending" XFire is accurate, so no need to chime in and say how it isn't.
Release a game with a very large established fanbase from 10+ years of bnet history when the market was still emerging and the casual base had not yet been established, thus ripe for harvesting a momentious self perpetuating playerbase people never leave because they have X hours invested in their characters, and their friends and everyone else plays anyway. Not discounting Blizzard quality... but WoW's success is as much about perfect timing as it is quality, if not more so. - Derros |
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12/26/12 8:00:55 AM#32
Originally posted by grimal If you mean defender by saying negative Nancy's are just that negative with nothing constructive to say, then yes. If you mean, just becuase I agrue with people about XFire, then no - I used Xfire years ago and then realized I don't want what they are selling, mainly your information to advertisers - not for me - uninstalled the useless software. I argued that XFire was useless as a measure for ANY game not just GW2. It is just nonsense.
I can measure the amount of time I spend in a game - I own a watch.
"You can fool some of the people all the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all the time." Abraham Lincoln |
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12/26/12 8:02:28 AM#33
Originally posted by grimal I already did - what % of say WoW players use XFire (how about any game for that matter) - can you tell me? If not, it is a useless tool, period. "You can fool some of the people all the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all the time." Abraham Lincoln |
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erictlewis
 Hard Core Member
Joined: 11/08/08
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results. |
12/26/12 8:05:22 AM#34
I agree every few weeks we get this topic yet again. |
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12/26/12 8:05:51 AM#35
Originally posted by botrytis Your opinion is noted. So no need to keep posting this. Release a game with a very large established fanbase from 10+ years of bnet history when the market was still emerging and the casual base had not yet been established, thus ripe for harvesting a momentious self perpetuating playerbase people never leave because they have X hours invested in their characters, and their friends and everyone else plays anyway. Not discounting Blizzard quality... but WoW's success is as much about perfect timing as it is quality, if not more so. - Derros |
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12/26/12 8:13:21 AM#36
Xfire is better than pulling numbers out of the air but that's about it.
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12/26/12 11:09:50 AM#37
Sadly Eve is a very bad choice because quite some Eve players have multiple accounts to the game. Thus your X-Fire factor is completely off the mark right from the start. I maintain this List of Sandbox MMORPGs. Please post or send PM for corrections and suggestions. |
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12/26/12 11:12:45 AM#38
Originally posted by Rthuth434 I call BS on this. I have installed TSW 3x or more now. I have never had xfire on ANY of my PC's at any point in time EVER. |
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12/26/12 11:14:26 AM#39
I think it is very useful for trend tracking within a game but next to useless to determine an overall playerbase or compare games population wise. There are just too many unknowns about the sample to be able to extrapolate from one games data points to another games (IE come up with some sort of multiplier to determine how many players a game has based on data points from a different game).
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12/26/12 11:15:40 AM#40
Originally posted by madazz When I downloaded the installer to install the patcher which downloads the game, it asked me if I wanted to install xfire and the box for yes was pre-checked, I had to uncheck it because I didn't want it. |
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