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The Pub at MMORPG.COM  » Sub Numbers - Are all MMOs in decline, or is there one that is growing?

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65 posts found
  nariusseldon

Elite Member

Joined: 12/21/07
Posts: 19928

11/29/12 1:20:30 PM#21
Originally posted by bizoux86

I agree with many of the commentors in this thread.... There are just so many MMO options these days that people are playing several different games - of course numbers will go up and down depending on what games people are subscribed to or playing for free for that particular month.  I myself am playing Aion, but am subbed to WoW - I also dabble in other games too.  I feel like a lot of MMO players probably jump around quite a bit because of the extensive options available to us! 

 

I will also add that more and more non-MMOs have MMO features, and may suit the playstyle of some players previosuly only play MMOs. LOL and WOT are good examples.

The choices of online entertainment are many. There is no need to focus on just MMOs.

  maplestone

Novice Member

Joined: 12/10/08
Posts: 3109

11/29/12 2:08:50 PM#22

Is it really fair to expect a publisher to come out shouting "look at our succesful business model and growing profit margin!  Clone us!  Clone us!"?

  Jonoku

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 6/08/12
Posts: 663

"Veni Vidi Vici"

11/29/12 2:23:58 PM#23
MMOs are declining nowadays because its easy to get burn't out from it when old MMOs it was hard to get burn't out

Looking at: The Repopulation
Preordering: None
Playing: Random Games

  Xiaoki

Advanced Member

Joined: 3/07/04
Posts: 2449

11/29/12 6:04:09 PM#24


Originally posted by nariusseldon
So? Whatever the reason is .. F2P is taking over a large market share, and growing. And that is a reason why subs are declining. And if they are succesfful to get players buy from their cash shop, more power to them.

It is a free world.



Free to play MMOs are growing and taking over the market because nearly all new MMOs are horrible and not worth $15 a month so they are forced to adopt the Free to play model or perish.


What does it say about the MMORPG genre as a whole when "Horrible" has become the majority?


Oh yeah, look at the thread title.

  Teala

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 6/16/04
Posts: 7434

"Really officer, they're herbs."

11/29/12 6:09:32 PM#25
They're all mediocre at best, even WoW has losts its shine, so yeah...I'd say MMO's are on the decline.    Until games designers of this genre go back to making persistent virtual game worlds - these games will continue to decline in popularity.   

  Wayshuba

Apprentice Member

Joined: 11/07/08
Posts: 71

11/30/12 7:20:53 PM#26

I think this is a result of a few things.

 

1.) There are more MMOs on the market than ever before, so getting players really requires a fresh approach to long term engagment.

 

2.) Along with the above statement, games have been doing a TERRIBLE job at taking this fresh approach. They all seem very similar with just different skins.

 

3.) The F2P model encourages this types of behaviour.

 

I mean the MMO market is currently noted as $1.6B in the US and about $6.5B Worldwide. With like 300 MMOs out there that leaves about $18M in annual revenue if each had equal market share. Unfortunately, most MMOs need to hit about the $50M to $60M mark to both turn a profit and deliver content at a steady enough pace. So the F2P model is meant to get increasing levels of cash from a smaller player base.

 

It's a tough market now, and I personally believe the F2P model is NOT the one for the future. I think MMOs charge for the initial game, give away the sub and go with charging for content updates on a regular basis. Not the micro-transactions of today.

  3-4thElf

Advanced Member

Joined: 6/03/12
Posts: 495

11/30/12 7:38:00 PM#27
Originally posted by Wayshuba

I think this is a result of a few things.

 

1.) There are more MMOs on the market than ever before, so getting players really requires a fresh approach to long term engagment.

 

2.) Along with the above statement, games have been doing a TERRIBLE job at taking this fresh approach. They all seem very similar with just different skins.

 

3.) The F2P model encourages this types of behaviour.

 

I mean the MMO market is currently noted as $1.6B in the US and about $6.5B Worldwide. With like 300 MMOs out there that leaves about $18M in annual revenue if each had equal market share. Unfortunately, most MMOs need to hit about the $50M to $60M mark to both turn a profit and deliver content at a steady enough pace. So the F2P model is meant to get increasing levels of cash from a smaller player base.

 

It's a tough market now, and I personally believe the F2P model is NOT the one for the future. I think MMOs charge for the initial game, give away the sub and go with charging for content updates on a regular basis. Not the micro-transactions of today.

We need to add a 4)

Your little prescription there is a part of the problem as well.

People thinking that there's ONE master way to do things. It makes MMOs a pain in the ass to deal with.

From quest design, to auto attacks, to subscription models, to cash shop offerings, and designs.

THE SAMENESS OF IT ALL IS KILLING THE GENRE OMEGERRD..

But honestly the more options there are the better.

a yo ho ho

  DavisFlight

Hard Core Member

Joined: 9/25/12
Posts: 2588

11/30/12 8:30:59 PM#28

Most WoW clones are in decline, because they offer nothing new and by their very design principles, are all about short burn and not long term.

But, the better made innovative MMOs are doing well. Eve and Darkfall for instance, have both been steadily growing.

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10718

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

11/30/12 9:08:57 PM#29


Originally posted by DavisFlight
Most WoW clones are in decline, because they offer nothing new and by their very design principles, are all about short burn and not long term.

But, the better made innovative MMOs are doing well. Eve and Darkfall for instance, have both been steadily growing.




Eve's player counts have plateaued or are now slightly down from their peak of over 400,000 players. There's no good way to tell how Darkfall is doing. Adventurine is just as tight lipped about their players as most other game companies.

I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  Theocritus

Apprentice Member

Joined: 7/15/08
Posts: 3613

11/30/12 9:31:53 PM#30
    I wouldnt put much weight in sub numbers anymore...There are simply too many free or cheaper options available than to pay a 15 dollar a month sub.
  strangiato2112

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 9/21/12
Posts: 1566

11/30/12 9:42:55 PM#31
EQ2 isnt declining.  Its not having major growth, but its at least going in the right direction.
  DavisFlight

Hard Core Member

Joined: 9/25/12
Posts: 2588

11/30/12 10:47:25 PM#32
Originally posted by lizardbones

 


Originally posted by DavisFlight
Most WoW clones are in decline, because they offer nothing new and by their very design principles, are all about short burn and not long term.

 

But, the better made innovative MMOs are doing well. Eve and Darkfall for instance, have both been steadily growing.




Eve's player counts have plateaued or are now slightly down from their peak of over 400,000 players. There's no good way to tell how Darkfall is doing. Adventurine is just as tight lipped about their players as most other game companies.

 

Eve was at 350k this time last year. It's still growing.

And you can see Darkfall success through Aventurine's. The game has obviously done well if AV has managed to hire 40 new employees (from the 20 they had at Darkfall launch), move into a bigger building, open a second server, and launch a sequel to their game.

  Purutzil

Elite Member

Joined: 10/02/11
Posts: 2867

The Critical Hit Pretzel!

11/30/12 10:52:34 PM#33
Lots of switching. A MMO 'climbs' really only when they have a big content patch or an expansion. 
  dreamscaper

Elite Member

Joined: 8/14/08
Posts: 1286

11/30/12 10:53:51 PM#34
Originally posted by DavisFlight
Originally posted by lizardbones

 


Originally posted by DavisFlight
Most WoW clones are in decline, because they offer nothing new and by their very design principles, are all about short burn and not long term.

 

But, the better made innovative MMOs are doing well. Eve and Darkfall for instance, have both been steadily growing.




Eve's player counts have plateaued or are now slightly down from their peak of over 400,000 players. There's no good way to tell how Darkfall is doing. Adventurine is just as tight lipped about their players as most other game companies.

 

Eve was at 350k this time last year. It's still growing.

^ This. Eve is the only MMORPG I'm aware of that has steadily grown over the years, instead of slowly bleeding subs like most others.

<3

  Pivotelite

Novice Member

Joined: 1/19/12
Posts: 2193

11/30/12 11:11:25 PM#35

Currently just about every single MMO is overall in a state of decline, the only MMO maintaining itself is EvE.

 

This is due to oversaturation and the "I want it now" mentality.

  Xiaoki

Advanced Member

Joined: 3/07/04
Posts: 2449

11/30/12 11:40:13 PM#36


Originally posted by dreamscaper
Eve is the only MMORPG I'm aware of that has steadily grown over the years, instead of slowly bleeding subs like most others.

Yeah, even WoW sold big at launch then sank like a stone.

  Loktofeit

Elite Member

Joined: 1/13/10
Posts: 12387

Currently playing EVE, SMITE, Project Gorgon, and Combat Arms

11/30/12 11:51:38 PM#37
Originally posted by Xiaoki   Yeah, even WoW sold big at launch then sank like a stone.

Wait... what???

"And wikipedia is as accurate as Britannica. Wikipedia is very reliable. You would be hard pressed to find a more reliable source for these kinds of things." -fivoroth

  nariusseldon

Elite Member

Joined: 12/21/07
Posts: 19928

12/03/12 12:20:41 PM#38
Originally posted by Xiaoki

 


Originally posted by dreamscaper
Eve is the only MMORPG I'm aware of that has steadily grown over the years, instead of slowly bleeding subs like most others.


Yeah, even WoW sold big at launch then sank like a stone.

 

???

It added subs over the year to 12M, dropped back down to 9M 2 year ago, and back up to 10M.

So what sank like a stone?

  Robsolf

Apprentice Member

Joined: 4/21/06
Posts: 4013

Let go of my ears, I know what I'm doing!

12/03/12 12:27:59 PM#39
Originally posted by Hefaistos
Originally posted by Elsabolts

All in Decline, you can thank F2p and Item shops. The only one that is not is Blizzard's WoW but subs seem low.

You are right. The total ammount of gather bots, chinese farmers, chinese gold sellers, pvp bots, leveling bots is aroud the same. The total ammount of player base is so small you wont believe it. 

I'm curious; what do you think the ratio is of "real player" to the "non-player" types that you mention?

  VengeSunsoar

Hard Core Member

Joined: 3/10/04
Posts: 4845

Be Brief, Be Bright... Be Gone.

12/03/12 12:41:39 PM#40
Originally posted by DavisFlight
Originally posted by lizardbones

 


Originally posted by DavisFlight
Most WoW clones are in decline, because they offer nothing new and by their very design principles, are all about short burn and not long term.

 

But, the better made innovative MMOs are doing well. Eve and Darkfall for instance, have both been steadily growing.




Eve's player counts have plateaued or are now slightly down from their peak of over 400,000 players. There's no good way to tell how Darkfall is doing. Adventurine is just as tight lipped about their players as most other game companies.

 

Eve was at 350k this time last year. It's still growing.

And you can see Darkfall success through Aventurine's. The game has obviously done well if AV has managed to hire 40 new employees (from the 20 they had at Darkfall launch), move into a bigger building, open a second server, and launch a sequel to their game.

 Darkfall's population tanked like a stone, however that does not mean it wasn't successfull enough to generate a profit and expand the company.

Eve's population is now stabilized. Link below states that in 2010 they had 357,000 subs, so if there subs are approximately that now, that is the definition of stable.  In July it states 350,000.  I don't have any links but rumors are that the subs dropped last year, and climbed back  a bit this year, which is again the definition of stable. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eve_Online#Demographics

Quit worrying about other players in a game and just play.

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