Further to our story about MoP sales being condemned as disappointing by Lazard analyst Atul Bagga, another investment bank has waded into the fray. Venturebeat posted an update to their original gloomy outlook piece, with news from Brean, Murray, Carret and Co. that gave a far more positive angle.

They believe that “the expansion pack will be a key driver of publisher Activision Blizzard’s third quarter 2012 revenue growth” and that “recent reports of weak retail sales  for Mists of Pandaria may fail to reflect a channel shift toward a greater percentage of digital sales”. This latter part is pretty key, and was key to the argument against Lazard’s previous assertions.

Brean Murray have estimated sales of 4.5 million copies of Mists of Pandaria will be sold in the third quarter. It’s not 100% clear at this point whether they mean that as the third quarter of the calendar year, that is to say from the beginning of July until the end of September, or some other fiscal period. However, it seems that the calendar year option would make some sense, given that Mists of Pandaria was available for digital download from the 25th of July.

Brean Murray also expect subscriber numbers to increase from the current 9.5 million to 9.8 million by the end of the third quarter, despite strong competition from Free-to-Play titles and, they add, NCSoft’s Guild Wars 2.

They also make an important point regarding digital sales: it’s possible the margins are likely higher than for the retail copies people are buying. There is far less cost incurred with the digital sale than for the retail boxes, and while the digital sales are lower priced it is possible that Brean Murray have a point here.

So, who’s right? Again, like Lazard’s figures, these are estimates. They’re certainly based on facts, but until Blizzard release their own figures, the world will have to wait and see. 4.5 million digital sales this quarter.

http://www.gamebreaker.tv/mmorpg/world-of-warcraft-mmorpg/world-of-warcraft-news/less-disappointing/

Originally posted by grimal
Isn't the title a bit misleading since no one knows the actual number?

What a crappy title.

4.5 million digital sales in US and EU this quarter?  Isn't that over 100% of the last population of the game in those regions?  Considering no one in asia has to buy WOW, and that a majority of players are outside of USA/EU, those numbers sound crazy.

I'd find Lazard more believable than some deadbeat analyst who predicts more sales than actual US + EU WoW customers combined.  .. Asia makes up the majority of WoW players, and people in that geographic area get free expansions, under an agreement between Blizzard and China, many years ago, before Activision polluted WoW..

WoW was dropping subscribers, with disgruntled customers vocally not liking the direction WoW is / was going (WotLK onward, excluding some stuff like Ulduarr), and closing their wallets to Blizzard.  For digital sales to be extremely high, this would imply a huge influx of returning players, since newer customers are way more likely to buy the physical box than returning customers.  I doubt many former subscribers suddenly came back in light of Pandas and the Pokemon stigma surrounding this expansion (though, sure, some did).  ... and new players would more often times buy a physical box - this analysts crystal ball prediction doesn't add up.

Even a year ago digital sales vs physical boxes were roughly 50 / 50 % each.  This analyst really thinks the ratio is now magically 15% physical, 85% digital (700k vs 4.5 mil) ? Lulz .  Most people like me want the box, since it's around the same price (sometimes cheaper), and is collectable. 

Very misleading title.

Shouldn't Blizzard have reported the numbers by now? It's been over a week, historically, that's usually when they post the first day sales, at least.

Isn't that a bad sign?

Regarding the "unrealistic" 4.5 million - nobody knows the true ratio of west:east playerbases. While 4.5 is extremely optimistic (and very, very unlikely), it's not an impossibility as some of you are suggesting. Just pointing that out.

Originally posted by smh_alot
Lol. Nice title. I clicked on the thread, well done ^_^

Yep, this tittle gave him a place in my block list. Congratulations :-)

Originally posted by MeGaTronPower

So, who’s right? Again, like Lazard’s figures, these are estimates. They’re certainly based on facts, but until Blizzard release their own figures, the world will have to wait and see. 4.5 million digital sales this quarter.

You're contradicting from start to finish here.

Try harder next time to boost WOW.

3rd quarter for Blizzard ended Sept 30 

let me know when Blizzard breaks their silence...

analysts can claim whatever they want - but it doesnt make it true

Last year they published their Q3 report in November, so if i'ts bad news, that's how long we have to wait to hear just how bad it is.

If it's good news, they should've told us by now (or very, very soon).

chuckle if Bliz had sold 4.5 mil copies they would be shouting it from the rooftops ..what do we hear ...crickets.  I doubt if they did a million going by the web site traffic, stock price drop and XFire bump. Not to mention the reaction MoP is getting over at Metacritic..

Originally posted by nsignific

Shouldn't Blizzard have reported the numbers by now? It's been over a week, historically, that's usually when they post the first day sales, at least.

Isn't that a bad sign?

 

Regarding the "unrealistic" 4.5 million - nobody knows the true ratio of west:east playerbases. While 4.5 is extremely optimistic (and very, very unlikely), it's not an impossibility as some of you are suggesting. Just pointing that out.

Blizzard was always very eager to post sales and subscription numbers, because it had always been very positive so far.

For them to keep so silent right now..... is pretty much proof on the pudding that MoP sales have been very dissapointing.

Up till Cataclysm people were standing in huge lines at midnight openings, with excitement, to buy the expansion.

Now hardly anyone even bothered. At least here in Europe the midnight openings were quiet and far and few between.

On my server the population hardly changed (I checked myself by just resubbing only a week before) before and after MoP release.

The new starter area was surprisingly quiet.

Only on the few remaining high pop realms there was some queue'ing.... that's pretty much it.

I'm going to make a thread and call it:

"ELEVENTY MILLION INTERNETZ HAVE BEEN SOLD TO FAMOUS MMO COMPANY"

Then, some article (which I will write under a different name) will verify my post as legitimate and that web site will generate tons of ad revenue.

So, is this the same OP as the other thread?  Why does the OP feel the need to update us on some news site's "re-revised estimates" of unverifiable information?

i'm still hopeful MOP did well, i'll give it til the end of the week to hear the official numbers.

if none are presented by then, my expectaions drop to rock bottom.

---

Originally posted by FrodoFragins

---

Originally posted by grimal Isn't the title a bit misleading since no one knows the actual number?

---

What a crappy title.

 

4.5 million digital sales in US and EU this quarter?  Isn't that over 100% of the last population of the game in those regions?  Considering no one in asia has to buy WOW, and that a majority of players are outside of USA/EU, those numbers sound crazy.

 

 

---

I think these figures are pretty optamistic given every person playing WoW now would have to buy MoP in the third quarter and not onty that WoWs player base would have to increase . This seems very unlikly to happen . I wonder why Brean ,Murray, Carret and Co would want to gamble thier reputation in such a way .

Theres a bit of a war of words going on amongst analysts at the moment .

http://games.yahoo.com/blogs/plugged-in/analysts-squabble-over-mists-pandaria-sales-220712696.html

I think this is probably because along with many of us mmo fans we expected release day sales numbers to be have been made available to the press by now , it took Blizzard 6 days to release Cataclysms impressive sales figures and we are now at 8 days and counting for MoPs sales figures .

Originally posted by MeGaTronPower

Further to our story about MoP sales being condemned as disappointing by Lazard analyst Atul Bagga, another investment bank has waded into the fray. Venturebeat posted an update to their original gloomy outlook piece, with news from Brean, Murray, Carret and Co. that gave a far more positive angle.

They believe that “the expansion pack will be a key driver of publisher Activision Blizzard’s third quarter 2012 revenue growth” and that “recent reports of weak retail sales  for Mists of Pandaria may fail to reflect a channel shift toward a greater percentage of digital sales”. This latter part is pretty key, and was key to the argument against Lazard’s previous assertions.

Brean Murray have estimated sales of 4.5 million copies of Mists of Pandaria will be sold in the third quarter. It’s not 100% clear at this point whether they mean that as the third quarter of the calendar year, that is to say from the beginning of July until the end of September, or some other fiscal period. However, it seems that the calendar year option would make some sense, given that Mists of Pandaria was available for digital download from the 25th of July.

Brean Murray also expect subscriber numbers to increase from the current 9.5 million to 9.8 million by the end of the third quarter, despite strong competition from Free-to-Play titles and, they add, NCSoft’s Guild Wars 2.

They also make an important point regarding digital sales: it’s possible the margins are likely higher than for the retail copies people are buying. There is far less cost incurred with the digital sale than for the retail boxes, and while the digital sales are lower priced it is possible that Brean Murray have a point here.

So, who’s right? Again, like Lazard’s figures, these are estimates. They’re certainly based on facts, but until Blizzard release their own figures, the world will have to wait and see. 4.5 million digital sales this quarter.

 

http://www.gamebreaker.tv/mmorpg/world-of-warcraft-mmorpg/world-of-warcraft-news/less-disappointing/

Well this is getting crazy and there is no way they did 4.5 Million plus the box sales which would make MoP sales over 5 Million. If this was the case Blizzard would have already posted the numbers.

Peace,

Lascer

Originally posted by nsignific

Shouldn't Blizzard have reported the numbers by now? It's been over a week, historically, that's usually when they post the first day sales, at least.

Isn't that a bad sign?

 

Regarding the "unrealistic" 4.5 million - nobody knows the true ratio of west:east playerbases. While 4.5 is extremely optimistic (and very, very unlikely), it's not an impossibility as some of you are suggesting. Just pointing that out.

Every sales report for the last 3 expansions were announced within the first week of release.  Pandaland?  WE are chaninging how we do things lol.