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Star Wars: The Old Republic

Star Wars: The Old Republic 

General Discussion  » My take on Swtor's success or failure form what I am seeing.

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102 posts found
  User Deleted
9/24/12 10:00:28 AM#21
Originally posted by Zecktorin

I also said I could be wrong lol. i'm sorry do you currently sub to the game and see the population in game on a day to day basis? If the answer is no... your argument is invalid lol. <3 you tho.

Day to day population can be better tracked by means other than your sight. And no, you dont have to be subbed for that. And if someone wants to see it really badly ingame theres unlimited time free trial, so i dont even see reason to sub for that also.

Once you do empirical research like Scorpienne did you might have something to say, otherwise its just your subjective impression without any objective point to it.

Hope its clear to you now, what subjective and objective means.

  Draron

Novice Member

Joined: 5/07/11
Posts: 1009

9/24/12 4:30:46 PM#22
Originally posted by mikahr

Day to day population can be better tracked by means other than your sight. And no, you dont have to be subbed for that. And if someone wants to see it really badly ingame theres unlimited time free trial, so i dont even see reason to sub for that also.

Once you do empirical research like Scorpienne did you might have something to say, otherwise its just your subjective impression without any objective point to it.

Hope its clear to you now, what subjective and objective means.

There is better means to track it, yes. According to http://www.torstatus.net the game has lost .02% of it's population over the last month. Not nearly as bad as people on these forums are making it out to be.

  grimal

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 9/11/05
Posts: 2632

9/24/12 4:43:51 PM#23

I think the F2P will bring in a good amount of players and it will eventually stabilize at a much higher pop number than it is right now.

A lot of new games have just come out  / are coming out (GW2, TL2, WoW Expansion, DOA5).  Once the newness of these titles wear off, it will be near the F2p period of TOR and I think a lot of people that were initially hesitant and/or didn't like might give it a chance again.

The hype for the game was unprecedented and whenever this happens it usually takes a good amount of time for peoples' expectations to come back into check.  The bigger the hype, the longer it takes for the turnaround.

 

"I'm sorry, if you were right, I'd agree with you." - Robin Williams

  tiefighter25

Novice Member

Joined: 7/30/12
Posts: 949

9/24/12 5:21:43 PM#24
Originally posted by Draron
Originally posted by mikahr

Day to day population can be better tracked by means other than your sight. And no, you dont have to be subbed for that. And if someone wants to see it really badly ingame theres unlimited time free trial, so i dont even see reason to sub for that also.

Once you do empirical research like Scorpienne did you might have something to say, otherwise its just your subjective impression without any objective point to it.

Hope its clear to you now, what subjective and objective means.

There is better means to track it, yes. According to http://www.torstatus.net the game has lost .02% of it's population over the last month. Not nearly as bad as people on these forums are making it out to be.

Please unserstand what it is you are reading.

You are pulling the North American server Overall Change figure.

First off, right off the bat,  that is not a percentage. That is the change in aggregate server status for the North American servers over a 2 week period.

The way Tor Status works, approx. 3-2.8=heavy, 2.8-1.8=medium, 1.8-1.1=light 1.1-.98=dead

The .02 number isn't valid because it ic counting the High Population Public test server as a .99 addition to server report status.

So right off the bat, your number is now -1.2.

Also those few incresed (green) server report changes are due to server merges,

As you can see that list you are citing still has the newly closed (origin round 2) servers in the list.

The whole number is out of whack till the new ground base can be set in about a week.

This is the only real useful data from TorStatus at the moment, http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/trends for the North American Servers. And even that has to take into account the server merges on Sept. 18th. (which is reflected in the chart.)

  tiefighter25

Novice Member

Joined: 7/30/12
Posts: 949

9/24/12 5:31:46 PM#25

Hey OP

Again, you seem to be glossing over that SWTOR just underwent another server merger.

All data indicates that SWTOR has continued to lose population.

TorStatus, X-Fire, and even Scorpienne's population survey.

They all indicate that SWTOR has lost 20% of population since GW2 has come out.

Since the server merges didn't redistribute the remaining population evenly, you might be on a high population server, but that doesn't mean everyone else is.

Every day there are threads opened on the SWTOR Forums with people begging for the 3 APAC servers to be merged due to populations measured in the tens. The same goes for North American server Jung MA.

Jung MA is especially telling, because SWTOR consistiently reports it as standard despite it's very low population; indicating that these new Mega-servers still have individual population caps.

Futhermore, several of the new Megaservers have gone form Very Heavy, to full with log-in waiting queues.

This indicates that the new Megaservers aren't really Mega at all.

All empirical data indicates that SWTOR shut down 6 servers, and now has 16 servers with decent populations. The standard servers around 800-1500. The heavy servers with 1500-3000. Also are 1 dead server in Jung Ma, and 3 dead servers in Australia.

Nothing indicates that the population is growing.

Nothing indicates that the servers are Mega.

Calling a server Mega without any explanation to any sort of technolgy that has increased it's cap doesn't make it Mega.

  Yakamomoto

Apprentice Member

Joined: 9/24/12
Posts: 385

9/24/12 6:37:22 PM#26

If I had a penny for each time someone on the TOR forum saying "people had unrealistic expectations".

You know, starting nearly ten years later with half the mechanics SWG had is not smart. They should have known TOR will be compared to SWG, and people would expect basic features from SWG to be in TOR.

A kind of modernized, polished SWG2 plus Bioware story.

You call modernization of 10 year old features high expectations?

We got WoW in a Star Wars setting, I don't know exactly who wanted that, but certainly not me.

  LoverNoFighter

Novice Member

Joined: 9/05/12
Posts: 334

SWG pre cu > all

9/25/12 4:30:39 AM#27
SWG pre cu was always a better game. Ok, maybe not better but it sure was more fun.
  Zecktorin

Novice Member

Joined: 11/23/11
Posts: 235

 
OP  9/25/12 6:29:02 AM#28
Originally posted by tiefighter25

Hey OP

Again, you seem to be glossing over that SWTOR just underwent another server merger.

All data indicates that SWTOR has continued to lose population.

TorStatus, X-Fire, and even Scorpienne's population survey.

They all indicate that SWTOR has lost 20% of population since GW2 has come out.

Since the server merges didn't redistribute the remaining population evenly, you might be on a high population server, but that doesn't mean everyone else is.

Every day there are threads opened on the SWTOR Forums with people begging for the 3 APAC servers to be merged due to populations measured in the tens. The same goes for North American server Jung MA.

Jung MA is especially telling, because SWTOR consistiently reports it as standard despite it's very low population; indicating that these new Mega-servers still have individual population caps.

Futhermore, several of the new Megaservers have gone form Very Heavy, to full with log-in waiting queues.

This indicates that the new Megaservers aren't really Mega at all.

All empirical data indicates that SWTOR shut down 6 servers, and now has 16 servers with decent populations. The standard servers around 800-1500. The heavy servers with 1500-3000. Also are 1 dead server in Jung Ma, and 3 dead servers in Australia.

Nothing indicates that the population is growing.

Nothing indicates that the servers are Mega.

Calling a server Mega without any explanation to any sort of technolgy that has increased it's cap doesn't make it Mega.

Ty this is what I wanted from someone who disagreed. All I said is from what I have seen on my server. people like to just use smartass remarks instead and just hate for the sake of hating. Its just arrogance from most people. How ever  going by what you have said it still doesnt add up. okay during prime time with the most people playing at any given time on a saturday lets say all the servers are heavy with 3k people each server.  Your telling me that by that math only 48k people are playing at a given time during this period. Even less of those are subs because of the trial accounts.... some of that data is incorrect as it is because there are now currently 20 servers not 16. The leaving players may be just getting replace with new players and so on and so forth.

  Souldrainer

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 5/21/06
Posts: 1878

9/25/12 6:47:18 AM#29

It's annoying when people say they logged on and saw x number of players and try to make projections off of it. The other night, I was driving on a section of route 40 and only encountered 5 cars during that time.

Under the snapshot projection fallacy, these people would project that 35 people use that road per week, and call for a shutdown... even though the reality is that it was a 2 mile trip at 3am and cars were constantly getting on and off that road. Tens of millions use route 40 a week, but these armchair projections are just plain stupid.

They are even less accurate than just plugging numbers into a random number generator, which says a lot about how bad they are.

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  Zecktorin

Novice Member

Joined: 11/23/11
Posts: 235

 
OP  9/25/12 6:48:05 AM#30
Originally posted by Yakamomoto

If I had a penny for each time someone on the TOR forum saying "people had unrealistic expectations".

You know, starting nearly ten years later with half the mechanics SWG had is not smart. They should have known TOR will be compared to SWG, and people would expect basic features from SWG to be in TOR.

A kind of modernized, polished SWG2 plus Bioware story.

You call modernization of 10 year old features high expectations?

We got WoW in a Star Wars setting, I don't know exactly who wanted that, but certainly not me.

No actually thats the people's fault. How dare you expect a good sandbox styled game in a theme park market especially when they said their fav quote when they said they used stuff from WoW " if its not broken then don't fix it." Talking about how the game mechanics from WoW work. Which they do just not for everyone. You shouldve know it was gonna be a normal theme park instead of something else. Bioware didn't lie about what this game was gonna be a lot of people lied to themselves. People pumped up their expections by comparing it to SWG themselves when if they paid attention would have known before they bought the game what it was gonna be.....

Your average MMO with star wars lore and story. No where was SWG2 with Bioware story was promised.

  User Deleted
9/25/12 7:22:29 AM#31
Originally posted by Zecktorin

Again another useless comment just trying to insult someone's intelligence over the internet. That was the main purpose of this response. Here let me say it again because you seem to have missed very important words in my post.

"from what I have seen"

"However who knows what will happen."

" I beleive"

"I could be wrong"

I still <3 you though for a nice try. A for effort. No where did I say I knew without a doubt it was growing....

I dont have to "attack" anything since you are doing fine job yourself.

And i suggest you go and see eye doctor or stop drinking so much (that double/triple/x-ple vision can be nasty)

  gervaise1

Elite Member

Joined: 1/17/07
Posts: 1425

9/25/12 9:37:44 AM#32

By their own data SWTOR is not a financial success; EA said they needed 1M subs if they were to recover their investment and they never hit 1M subs (highest was 1.7M of which "just about half" were subs0.

SWTOR also needed 500k to make a day-to-day profit and it is reasonable to assume that EA's projections showed the game falling below this. The probable reason for their 500k - 1M number being the likely drop off in 6 month subs coming up for renewal is August / September.

Going forward they must have expected subs to slip below 500k. In the short term EA could have spent lots more on advertising but it gets harder and harder to push a game; those who haven't bought or tried SWTOR by now will need lots of convincing.  

To reduce costs EA opted to cut back on the size of the team. Smaller team = less new content = less happier subscribers.

So they have rolled the dice and gone F2P. It should get some new players in but it is a risk as they may lose many of their remaining subscribers.

EA have given presentations (available on the EA investor webpage) in which they have said that the majority of people who play F2P .... for free! And if Zynga's experience holds about 95% will pay nothing. Put another way if they get 1M new players 950,000 players will pay nothing. Of the other 50,000 most will pay very little. Zynga data suggests most pay only a few dollars.

All on 20 servers. 

 

EA's plan is probably centred around cutting costs - heavily - and retaining enough subscribers to cover these costs. Any F2P money will then be "extra". Fine line however. Cutting costs means less content = less reason to subscribe.

Problems: 1. churn amongst F2P players - big problem with F2P games; 2. server capacity - at least until churn kicks in; 3. longevity - getting those 250k (or whatever) subs and long term F2P players; 4. what to offer by way of micro-transactions. 

If they don't keep hold onto subs however then the only solution will be further cost reductions - and less content to justify a subscription. Vicious circle. They will gloss over it of course. Fear not our new team is going to produce content even faster. There will be weekly releases. Rejoice! Today green dye. Next week red. The week after white.....

And 20 servers suggests that costs have been cut a long way already ... maybe expecting new dye colours might be a bit much ...

  AG-Vuk

Hard Core Member

Joined: 7/26/04
Posts: 831

Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son.
Oh, I see it's too late to help you.

9/25/12 9:47:08 AM#33
Originally posted by Zecktorin

 ................unrealistic expectations..............

That's all you really needed to say.

  Souldrainer

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 5/21/06
Posts: 1878

9/25/12 4:35:35 PM#34
Originally posted by Dblstandard
Tor has not been increasing in players.  if you look at ToR status

Which accurately projects populations how, exactly?  When you look at ToR status, it is a snapshot, not an algorithim.  Don't get me wrong.  You can add up all of the pluses and minuses on the page and come up with a number.  That number is not complete, however, due to the fact that they list the servers based on load percent, and not on actual numbers.  You're additionally assuming that all servers have an equal player base here, which is just wrong.

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  DavisFlight

Apprentice Member

Joined: 9/25/12
Posts: 2594

9/25/12 4:56:38 PM#35
Originally posted by Zecktorin

 

SWTOR was never a bad game and as long as you didnt have unrealistic expectations

So, SWTOR was never a bad game so long as our expectation was for it to be a bad game? Good to know.

 

No, its an awful MMOs. It fails at being an MMO AND a singleplayer game. It has no audience, no reason to keep playing. The story is bad, the quests are bad, the combat is bad, the world is bad.

  sirphobos

Advanced Member

Joined: 6/10/11
Posts: 610

9/25/12 5:07:59 PM#36
SW:TOR had one of the most enjoyable leveling experiences I've had in an MMO in a long time.  Problem is, there wasn't (and still isn't) a lot to do at level 50 unless you are interested in doing warzones.  Bioware I think was banking on people playing through all eight class storylines, which most people aren't interested in doing.  If there was more to do at level 50 I would be still playing it, and I'm sure a lot of other people who quit would also be doing so.
  Icewhite

Made History

Joined: 7/11/11
Posts: 6495

Pink, it's like red but not quite.

9/25/12 5:12:49 PM#37
Originally posted by SuperXero89

If it's not a success then it must be a failure.

That has always been the mindset of the mmorpg.com all gamer forums.

Fixed.  It isn't any different anywhere else. 

"I once had a rose named after me and I was very flattered. But I was not pleased to read the description in the catalogue: no good in a bed, but fine up against a wall."
Eleanor Roosevelt (Sorry, not germane, but it made me chuckle just now.  Dirty old lady!)

Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.

  Agnostic42

Advanced Member

Joined: 8/19/04
Posts: 353

9/25/12 5:18:27 PM#38

My take on SWTOR, I know, everyone has an opinion on it.

 

The game they released was and still is a lot of fun. I truly enjoyed it. Once you get to max level, it's merely the same'ol same 'ol. You raid for gear so you can raid for more gear and raid for...well... you get the point. There are a ton of other games out there that do this as well.

 

So, I made an alt, got him to max level, and another and another. So now I have four characters at max level and have no intentions of raiding. So where does that leave players like me? Either PvP'ing all day or farming with no reason why, other than...raiding... After years and years of raiding and always having my Star Wars game to fall back on when tired of raiding, having SWG gone, well, yea, I know, unreal expectations and all. At least I'm realistic about it.

 

I love the game, and had a blast with it, I also played SWG from release up until after the NGE, they are not the same game and I never wished they would have been, but... EA needs to step back and let their companies actually make the games. Front the money for production and then stay the hell away, they ruin everything. Granted Bioware needed a few lessons in trying to break the mold, which they apparently did not do.

 

If they released more Sandbox'y elements to it, such as, player housing outside of ship, or more custimizable ships. The ability to buy something outside of the story mode that let your character be just that, your character and not the same jo-schmo jedi guardian that everyone else has, it would be fun. Hell, make it the option to do what SWG had, own something that you could take pride in, anything, really.

 

Oh, and a Jump to Light Speed expansion, that would help... (Yes, I read the speculatory thread on that one)

 

Most of the people bashing SWTOR as a failure are people reading the forums and jumping on the bandwagon to bash the one that almost was while he is down. Reminds me of High School, seriously. The attitudes you find on these forums seem like kids straight out of school.

  RavingRabbid

Apprentice Member

Joined: 10/11/09
Posts: 1133

Remember Rabbids cant play MMO's, but they can dance!

9/25/12 5:27:12 PM#39

SWTOR is only failure based on an individuals evaluation of the game. The game is still running and I still enjoy it. Not a failure to me.... Nuff said.

*** double Plunger salute to Scarlett Johansen for portraying the Black Widow in the avengers movie!***

All my opinions are just that..opinions. If you like my opinions..coolness.If you dont like my opinion....I really dont care.
Playing: SWTOR, Marvel Heroes and WOT.

  Sevenstar61

Hard Core Member

Joined: 7/22/12
Posts: 1642

"But it was so artistically done..." - Grand Admiral Thrawn's final words

9/25/12 5:41:10 PM#40
Originally posted by SuperXero89

If it's not a success then it must be a failure.

 

That has always been the mindset of the mmorpg.com forums.

Only a Sith deals in absolutes. Dark side is  strong on this Forum 


Sith Warrior - Story of Hate and Love http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxKrlwXt7Ao
Imperial Agent - Rise of Cipher Nine http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBBj3eJWBvU&feature=youtu.be
Imperial Agent - Hunt for the Eagle Part 1http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQqjYYU128E

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