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Guild Wars 2

Guild Wars 2 

General Discussion  » GW2 Going Strong

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150 posts found
  Rokurgepta

Novice Member

Joined: 8/15/08
Posts: 2208

9/19/12 4:13:33 PM#121
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Rokurgepta
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Dihoru
And I see krakra is ignoring any posts which prove him wrong, gg old chap, cram you head up there harder.

I am ignoring people who don't know how statistics and polling work. Go read the basics in wikipedia and come back to us :)

 Yes but in the meantime you are using a number that is a small slice of the whole and trying to claim it represents everyone. People can make any claim they want, you are certainly doing just that.

Let me explain to you and Dihorou why xfire is reliable: The people playing xfire are a group of people which doesn't change much over time (few people start and few stop using it, but the changes are small). This group is large enough to be statistically accurate(11k people are playing gw2 right now, many scientific polls are being done with 5k people or even less). So when you observe this group start playing a game and then changing to another game you can safely assume the general population is doing the same thing.

 

But you might say: How can WoW have 6k people on xfire and gw2 11k when we know that wow has 9 mil players and gw2 only ~2? Isn't that wrong? 

The answer is: Don't look at the number of people playing. Look at how many hours they play, and look at the weekly changes of each game individually, look at the population shifts and trends. 

 Do you consider the people who use Xfire to be more hardcore gamers or more casual users?

  Dihoru

Elite Member

Joined: 1/11/06
Posts: 2666

9/19/12 4:17:51 PM#122
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Rokurgepta
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Dihoru
And I see krakra is ignoring any posts which prove him wrong, gg old chap, cram you head up there harder.

I am ignoring people who don't know how statistics and polling work. Go read the basics in wikipedia and come back to us :)

 Yes but in the meantime you are using a number that is a small slice of the whole and trying to claim it represents everyone. People can make any claim they want, you are certainly doing just that.

Let me explain to you and Dihorou why xfire is reliable: The people playing xfire are a group of people which doesn't change much over time (few people start and few stop using it, but the changes are small). This group is large enough to be statistically accurate(11k people are playing gw2 right now, many scientific polls are being done with 5k people or even less). So when you observe this group start playing a game and then changing to another game you can safely assume the general population is doing the same thing.

 

But you might say: How can WoW have 6k people on xfire and gw2 11k when we know that wow has 9 mil players and gw2 only ~2? Isn't that wrong? 

The answer is: Don't look at the number of people playing. Look at how many hours they play, and look at the weekly changes of each game individually, look at the population shifts and trends. 

[mod edit] you're basically saying that Xfire users are a representative portion of the playerbase... I used Xfire in the past for about a month, it was fucking with my games an their FPS so I uninstalled it. You are also saying that a site which supplies less than half of the playerbase is an accurate way to gauge the game... [mod edit]

Hmmm.... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xfire so 250000 gamers out of how many millions is an accurate gauge for you? good to know.

  User Deleted
9/19/12 4:20:16 PM#123
Originally posted by halflife25

Ok this topic has gone completely off topic into flaming and personal attacks. Regardless of what you guys are arguing about, fact is that it is too soon to predict doom for GW2 or call it the most successful MMO ever.

Yes GW2 sold 2 million boxes but  so did SWTOR. MMOS are horses of long race, only after 5 to 6 months we can know how is the player retention. And before someone says 'but but..there is no monthly fee.'

Just remember that player retention is as important for Anet because they want people to spend money in cash shop and also buy expansions in future. Less players on servers mean server merges.

OP knew the reactions he will get...and he was successul in baiting.

Why can't GW2 but a decent medium? Why does it have to serve one side of the spectrum as opposed to the other? This is what I don't get. I'm a fan of the game but I don't get why people automatically assume that the game is either a massive success or a huge failure. I assume it will fall in the middle. Where it still keeps a major portion of it's playerbase but not to the point that, and this is mainly haters who say this, it is the second coming.

  Uhwop

Elite Member

Joined: 3/20/10
Posts: 1617

9/19/12 4:20:54 PM#124
Originally posted by Rokurgepta
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Rokurgepta
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Dihoru
And I see krakra is ignoring any posts which prove him wrong, gg old chap, cram you head up there harder.

I am ignoring people who don't know how statistics and polling work. Go read the basics in wikipedia and come back to us :)

 Yes but in the meantime you are using a number that is a small slice of the whole and trying to claim it represents everyone. People can make any claim they want, you are certainly doing just that.

Let me explain to you and Dihorou why xfire is reliable: The people playing xfire are a group of people which doesn't change much over time (few people start and few stop using it, but the changes are small). This group is large enough to be statistically accurate(11k people are playing gw2 right now, many scientific polls are being done with 5k people or even less). So when you observe this group start playing a game and then changing to another game you can safely assume the general population is doing the same thing.

 

But you might say: How can WoW have 6k people on xfire and gw2 11k when we know that wow has 9 mil players and gw2 only ~2? Isn't that wrong? 

The answer is: Don't look at the number of people playing. Look at how many hours they play, and look at the weekly changes of each game individually, look at the population shifts and trends. 

 Do you consider the people who use Xfire to be more hardcore gamers or more casual users?

 It doesn't matter.

Xfire users represent a cross segement of players in the same way that official forum posters do.

A studio doesn't ask people if they're hardcore or not when they look on their forums to guage player opinion.  They also use forum posts of far fewer then 11k people to judge things about their players.

It's supposed to be something like 1-2% of a games players actually visit the forums, yet developers use that incredibly small cross segement to find things out.   If 200 people on a forum is enough to tell a studio something, why would you think that 11k people on Xfire isn't?

Also, the medication I take for my nerves was only tested on something like 500 people to determine the rate of side effects. You don't need large numbers to get statistically relevant information about stuff. 

  krakra70

Advanced Member

Joined: 9/05/12
Posts: 127

9/19/12 4:21:26 PM#125
Originally posted by Rokurgepta
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Rokurgepta
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Dihoru
And I see krakra is ignoring any posts which prove him wrong, gg old chap, cram you head up there harder.

I am ignoring people who don't know how statistics and polling work. Go read the basics in wikipedia and come back to us :)

 Yes but in the meantime you are using a number that is a small slice of the whole and trying to claim it represents everyone. People can make any claim they want, you are certainly doing just that.

Let me explain to you and Dihorou why xfire is reliable: The people playing xfire are a group of people which doesn't change much over time (few people start and few stop using it, but the changes are small). This group is large enough to be statistically accurate(11k people are playing gw2 right now, many scientific polls are being done with 5k people or even less). So when you observe this group start playing a game and then changing to another game you can safely assume the general population is doing the same thing.

 

But you might say: How can WoW have 6k people on xfire and gw2 11k when we know that wow has 9 mil players and gw2 only ~2? Isn't that wrong? 

The answer is: Don't look at the number of people playing. Look at how many hours they play, and look at the weekly changes of each game individually, look at the population shifts and trends. 

 Do you consider the people who use Xfire to be more hardcore gamers or more casual users?

Good question. The numbers for yesterday say 50k hours for 12k players  so they average ~4.3 hours. So I guess most are hardcore players.

  halflife25

Apprentice Member

Joined: 9/13/12
Posts: 787

9/19/12 4:25:08 PM#126
Originally posted by eggy08
Originally posted by halflife25

Ok this topic has gone completely off topic into flaming and personal attacks. Regardless of what you guys are arguing about, fact is that it is too soon to predict doom for GW2 or call it the most successful MMO ever.

Yes GW2 sold 2 million boxes but  so did SWTOR. MMOS are horses of long race, only after 5 to 6 months we can know how is the player retention. And before someone says 'but but..there is no monthly fee.'

Just remember that player retention is as important for Anet because they want people to spend money in cash shop and also buy expansions in future. Less players on servers mean server merges.

OP knew the reactions he will get...and he was successul in baiting.

Why can't GW2 but a decent medium? Why does it have to serve one side of the spectrum as opposed to the other? This is what I don't get. I'm a fan of the game but I don't get why people automatically assume that the game is either a massive success or a huge failure. I assume it will fall in the middle. Where it still keeps a major portion of it's playerbase but not to the point that, and this is mainly haters who say this, it is the second coming.

Because a lot of MMOS are in the middle, but that would mean 'average', something not acceptable by fans who want it to be super duper success and haters who want it to be an utter failure.

  tordurbar

Advanced Member

Joined: 5/02/10
Posts: 394

9/19/12 4:25:36 PM#127
I am still playing it but I have seen a definite drop off in the number of players that  I encounter - even at peak playing times. I am still playing in the 15-30 zones. The zerg has passed these zones so I am not surprised by the drop off. I am pleasantly surprised that the zones are not ghost zones but it is getting harder to clear quest areas because of the lack of players. I figured that I would have to quit at level 30 but it looks as if I will last another 10 levels.
  Uhwop

Elite Member

Joined: 3/20/10
Posts: 1617

9/19/12 4:25:55 PM#128
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Rokurgepta
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Rokurgepta
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Dihoru
And I see krakra is ignoring any posts which prove him wrong, gg old chap, cram you head up there harder.

I am ignoring people who don't know how statistics and polling work. Go read the basics in wikipedia and come back to us :)

 Yes but in the meantime you are using a number that is a small slice of the whole and trying to claim it represents everyone. People can make any claim they want, you are certainly doing just that.

Let me explain to you and Dihorou why xfire is reliable: The people playing xfire are a group of people which doesn't change much over time (few people start and few stop using it, but the changes are small). This group is large enough to be statistically accurate(11k people are playing gw2 right now, many scientific polls are being done with 5k people or even less). So when you observe this group start playing a game and then changing to another game you can safely assume the general population is doing the same thing.

 

But you might say: How can WoW have 6k people on xfire and gw2 11k when we know that wow has 9 mil players and gw2 only ~2? Isn't that wrong? 

The answer is: Don't look at the number of people playing. Look at how many hours they play, and look at the weekly changes of each game individually, look at the population shifts and trends. 

 Do you consider the people who use Xfire to be more hardcore gamers or more casual users?

Good question. The numbers for yesterday say 50k hours for 12k players  so they average ~4.3 hours. So I guess most are hardcore players.

 3-5 hours a day or around 20 hours a week is considered casual play according to what I've seen said by many developers. 

 

  Dihoru

Elite Member

Joined: 1/11/06
Posts: 2666

9/19/12 4:26:56 PM#129
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Rokurgepta
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Rokurgepta
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Dihoru
And I see krakra is ignoring any posts which prove him wrong, gg old chap, cram you head up there harder.

I am ignoring people who don't know how statistics and polling work. Go read the basics in wikipedia and come back to us :)

 Yes but in the meantime you are using a number that is a small slice of the whole and trying to claim it represents everyone. People can make any claim they want, you are certainly doing just that.

Let me explain to you and Dihorou why xfire is reliable: The people playing xfire are a group of people which doesn't change much over time (few people start and few stop using it, but the changes are small). This group is large enough to be statistically accurate(11k people are playing gw2 right now, many scientific polls are being done with 5k people or even less). So when you observe this group start playing a game and then changing to another game you can safely assume the general population is doing the same thing.

 

But you might say: How can WoW have 6k people on xfire and gw2 11k when we know that wow has 9 mil players and gw2 only ~2? Isn't that wrong? 

The answer is: Don't look at the number of people playing. Look at how many hours they play, and look at the weekly changes of each game individually, look at the population shifts and trends. 

 Do you consider the people who use Xfire to be more hardcore gamers or more casual users?

Good question. The numbers for yesterday say 50k hours for 12k players  so they average ~4.3 hours. So I guess most are hardcore players.

Hardcore = 4.3 h? pulling numbers out your behind again? I am classed as a medium range player (used to be short of professional level in Starcraft 2 actually) and before uni and RL got in the way gaming hours were 8+ h.

  User Deleted
9/19/12 4:28:02 PM#130
Originally posted by Uhwop
Originally posted by Rokurgepta
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Rokurgepta
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Dihoru
And I see krakra is ignoring any posts which prove him wrong, gg old chap, cram you head up there harder.

I am ignoring people who don't know how statistics and polling work. Go read the basics in wikipedia and come back to us :)

 Yes but in the meantime you are using a number that is a small slice of the whole and trying to claim it represents everyone. People can make any claim they want, you are certainly doing just that.

Let me explain to you and Dihorou why xfire is reliable: The people playing xfire are a group of people which doesn't change much over time (few people start and few stop using it, but the changes are small). This group is large enough to be statistically accurate(11k people are playing gw2 right now, many scientific polls are being done with 5k people or even less). So when you observe this group start playing a game and then changing to another game you can safely assume the general population is doing the same thing.

 

But you might say: How can WoW have 6k people on xfire and gw2 11k when we know that wow has 9 mil players and gw2 only ~2? Isn't that wrong? 

The answer is: Don't look at the number of people playing. Look at how many hours they play, and look at the weekly changes of each game individually, look at the population shifts and trends. 

 Do you consider the people who use Xfire to be more hardcore gamers or more casual users?

 It doesn't matter.

Xfire users represent a cross segement of players in the same way that official forum posters do.

A studio doesn't ask people if they're hardcore or not when they look on their forums to guage player opinion.  They also use forum posts of far fewer then 11k people to judge things about their players.

It's supposed to be something like 1-2% of a games players actually visit the forums, yet developers use that incredibly small cross segement to find things out.   If 200 people on a forum is enough to tell a studio something, why would you think that 11k people on Xfire isn't?

Also, the medication I take for my nerves was only tested on something like 500 people to determine the rate of side effects. You don't need large numbers to get statistically relevant information about stuff. 

What he's getting at is that Xfire is not a representation of the playerbase accurately. If they want a true statistical analysis, you need to grab players from each catagory that play the game and watch their habits of play to make a hypothesis of the playerbase as a whole. The information on the drug was a random assortment of people who took either the placebo or the actual drug and then based off that formed a hypothesis.

Xfire is a program that has no correlation with GW2. You don't need it to play GW2, so it skews the results. The reason he asks about the hardcore gamers or casual, which I actually decided to not post about before, is the fact that a casual player is not likely to download this program, as it is not necessary to play. The hardcore gamers tend to play nonstop on release then tone it down and play less a few weeks in. It happens for every game.

People on forums provide feedback. Developers won't ask each and every player in game for their opinion on how to fix the game, so they put forums out to basically ask the question for them and then see the response from that.

 

  krakra70

Advanced Member

Joined: 9/05/12
Posts: 127

9/19/12 4:31:28 PM#131
Originally posted by Uhwop
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Rokurgepta
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Rokurgepta
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Dihoru
And I see krakra is ignoring any posts which prove him wrong, gg old chap, cram you head up there harder.

I am ignoring people who don't know how statistics and polling work. Go read the basics in wikipedia and come back to us :)

 Yes but in the meantime you are using a number that is a small slice of the whole and trying to claim it represents everyone. People can make any claim they want, you are certainly doing just that.

Let me explain to you and Dihorou why xfire is reliable: The people playing xfire are a group of people which doesn't change much over time (few people start and few stop using it, but the changes are small). This group is large enough to be statistically accurate(11k people are playing gw2 right now, many scientific polls are being done with 5k people or even less). So when you observe this group start playing a game and then changing to another game you can safely assume the general population is doing the same thing.

 

But you might say: How can WoW have 6k people on xfire and gw2 11k when we know that wow has 9 mil players and gw2 only ~2? Isn't that wrong? 

The answer is: Don't look at the number of people playing. Look at how many hours they play, and look at the weekly changes of each game individually, look at the population shifts and trends. 

 Do you consider the people who use Xfire to be more hardcore gamers or more casual users?

Good question. The numbers for yesterday say 50k hours for 12k players  so they average ~4.3 hours. So I guess most are hardcore players.

 3-5 hours a day or around 20 hours a week is considered casual play according to what I've seen said by many developers. 

 

Really? I always thought casuals play a few hours per week or something. I guess people have different definitions of "casual".

 

edit: and as i closed the mmorpg.com tab this comment came up: http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/105g4j/my_experience_to_level_80_a_casual_players_pov/c6akidw

 

  User Deleted
9/19/12 4:31:28 PM#132
Originally posted by Dihoru
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Rokurgepta
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Rokurgepta
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Dihoru
And I see krakra is ignoring any posts which prove him wrong, gg old chap, cram you head up there harder.

I am ignoring people who don't know how statistics and polling work. Go read the basics in wikipedia and come back to us :)

 Yes but in the meantime you are using a number that is a small slice of the whole and trying to claim it represents everyone. People can make any claim they want, you are certainly doing just that.

Let me explain to you and Dihorou why xfire is reliable: The people playing xfire are a group of people which doesn't change much over time (few people start and few stop using it, but the changes are small). This group is large enough to be statistically accurate(11k people are playing gw2 right now, many scientific polls are being done with 5k people or even less). So when you observe this group start playing a game and then changing to another game you can safely assume the general population is doing the same thing.

 

But you might say: How can WoW have 6k people on xfire and gw2 11k when we know that wow has 9 mil players and gw2 only ~2? Isn't that wrong? 

The answer is: Don't look at the number of people playing. Look at how many hours they play, and look at the weekly changes of each game individually, look at the population shifts and trends. 

 Do you consider the people who use Xfire to be more hardcore gamers or more casual users?

Good question. The numbers for yesterday say 50k hours for 12k players  so they average ~4.3 hours. So I guess most are hardcore players.

Hardcore = 4.3 h? pulling numbers out your behind again? I am classed as a medium range player (used to be short of professional level in Starcraft 2 actually) and before uni and RL got in the way gaming hours were 8+ h.

Thats a monday. Not a typical day for players to play anyway. I'd say the casual player would be about 2 hours on a monday if that. Thats speculation purely, but 4 hours is a tad bit high.

  Dihoru

Elite Member

Joined: 1/11/06
Posts: 2666

9/19/12 4:41:38 PM#133
Originally posted by eggy08
Originally posted by Dihoru
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Rokurgepta
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Rokurgepta
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Dihoru
And I see krakra is ignoring any posts which prove him wrong, gg old chap, cram you head up there harder.

I am ignoring people who don't know how statistics and polling work. Go read the basics in wikipedia and come back to us :)

 Yes but in the meantime you are using a number that is a small slice of the whole and trying to claim it represents everyone. People can make any claim they want, you are certainly doing just that.

Let me explain to you and Dihorou why xfire is reliable: The people playing xfire are a group of people which doesn't change much over time (few people start and few stop using it, but the changes are small). This group is large enough to be statistically accurate(11k people are playing gw2 right now, many scientific polls are being done with 5k people or even less). So when you observe this group start playing a game and then changing to another game you can safely assume the general population is doing the same thing.

 

But you might say: How can WoW have 6k people on xfire and gw2 11k when we know that wow has 9 mil players and gw2 only ~2? Isn't that wrong? 

The answer is: Don't look at the number of people playing. Look at how many hours they play, and look at the weekly changes of each game individually, look at the population shifts and trends. 

 Do you consider the people who use Xfire to be more hardcore gamers or more casual users?

Good question. The numbers for yesterday say 50k hours for 12k players  so they average ~4.3 hours. So I guess most are hardcore players.

Hardcore = 4.3 h? pulling numbers out your behind again? I am classed as a medium range player (used to be short of professional level in Starcraft 2 actually) and before uni and RL got in the way gaming hours were 8+ h.

Thats a monday. Not a typical day for players to play anyway. I'd say the casual player would be about 2 hours on a monday if that. Thats speculation purely, but 4 hours is a tad bit high.

10-20 year olds 4 hours is a snack, 20-25 it is acceptable, 30+ it is normal. That's on average for an average abid gamer. Hardcore gamers are harder to pin down (some continue the lifestyle for their whole life taking on commentating roles, etc while others turn it into a hobby and focus on school, my case).

  stratasaurus

Apprentice Member

Joined: 12/18/11
Posts: 222

9/19/12 4:44:50 PM#134
I am really puzzled about the point of this thread and what all the discussion is about.  Everyone knew GW2 was going to have a big launch based on hype alone.  Everyone, including 90% of the anti-GW2 crowd knew 3 weeks in GW2 would be going strong and have full servers.  This is not news.  How about we all agree GW2 is doing what was pretty expected by everyone and take say 2 months off from the subject and come back at the 90 day mark and we can discuss how GW2 is doing.  Unless GW2 does something actually unexpected...say breaks 4M copies sold by xmas or servers all drop to low I really don't see what the news here is and why so many people seem bent on discussing it over and over.  Like I said at the 90 day mark or at least 60 day mark is when it is time to start posts like GW2 is still going strong.
  SaintPhilip

Novice Member

Joined: 3/22/12
Posts: 729

9/19/12 4:45:06 PM#135

Having not read the whoke Thread I still have got to laugh.

GW2 is "going strong"- Yeah, no shit. Its less than a month old and does not have a sub- I would certainly HOPE its going strong.

  Uhwop

Elite Member

Joined: 3/20/10
Posts: 1617

9/19/12 5:03:09 PM#136
Originally posted by eggy08
Originally posted by Uhwop
Originally posted by Rokurgepta
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Rokurgepta
Originally posted by krakra70
Originally posted by Dihoru
And I see krakra is ignoring any posts which prove him wrong, gg old chap, cram you head up there harder.

I am ignoring people who don't know how statistics and polling work. Go read the basics in wikipedia and come back to us :)

 Yes but in the meantime you are using a number that is a small slice of the whole and trying to claim it represents everyone. People can make any claim they want, you are certainly doing just that.

Let me explain to you and Dihorou why xfire is reliable: The people playing xfire are a group of people which doesn't change much over time (few people start and few stop using it, but the changes are small). This group is large enough to be statistically accurate(11k people are playing gw2 right now, many scientific polls are being done with 5k people or even less). So when you observe this group start playing a game and then changing to another game you can safely assume the general population is doing the same thing.

 

But you might say: How can WoW have 6k people on xfire and gw2 11k when we know that wow has 9 mil players and gw2 only ~2? Isn't that wrong? 

The answer is: Don't look at the number of people playing. Look at how many hours they play, and look at the weekly changes of each game individually, look at the population shifts and trends. 

 Do you consider the people who use Xfire to be more hardcore gamers or more casual users?

 It doesn't matter.

Xfire users represent a cross segement of players in the same way that official forum posters do.

A studio doesn't ask people if they're hardcore or not when they look on their forums to guage player opinion.  They also use forum posts of far fewer then 11k people to judge things about their players.

It's supposed to be something like 1-2% of a games players actually visit the forums, yet developers use that incredibly small cross segement to find things out.   If 200 people on a forum is enough to tell a studio something, why would you think that 11k people on Xfire isn't?

Also, the medication I take for my nerves was only tested on something like 500 people to determine the rate of side effects. You don't need large numbers to get statistically relevant information about stuff. 

What he's getting at is that Xfire is not a representation of the playerbase accurately. If they want a true statistical analysis, you need to grab players from each catagory that play the game and watch their habits of play to make a hypothesis of the playerbase as a whole. The information on the drug was a random assortment of people who took either the placebo or the actual drug and then based off that formed a hypothesis.

Xfire is a program that has no correlation with GW2. You don't need it to play GW2, so it skews the results. The reason he asks about the hardcore gamers or casual, which I actually decided to not post about before, is the fact that a casual player is not likely to download this program, as it is not necessary to play. The hardcore gamers tend to play nonstop on release then tone it down and play less a few weeks in. It happens for every game.

People on forums provide feedback. Developers won't ask each and every player in game for their opinion on how to fix the game, so they put forums out to basically ask the question for them and then see the response from that.

 

 The idea is that it shows a trend. 

I don't believe in the whole Xfire thing that much to be honest, but it is a good way to follow a trend in a game.  if 100k people with Xfire start playing a game, and they continue playing for several months you'll see a trend among those players, if there is a dip you'll see it.

They are players.  No matter how you slice it, you can not get around that simple fact.  The started playing a game and they also run Xfire, are players of that game, and Xfire does allow for you to follow what they do and formulate a statistical trend based on those players.   I'm trying to edit this, and I honestly have no idea what I was attempting to write.  Totally baffled.  This is what happens when your hands do what they want to do, and not what you wanted them to do. 

You need time though.  You don't give 500 people a pill once and then determine it's effects, you do it over the course of months.  Likewise, Xfire trends need time to first level out, and then time to determine the actual trend.

A Xfire dip in the first month doesn't actually give a worthwhile trend, that's would actually be the leveling out period.  After two or three months though can pretty much tell how things are going based on the Xfire numbers. 

Margins of error would account for people forgetting to turn it on or peope who stop using it, but like any other statistical trend there is an obvious margin of error. 

That margin of error is the only thing you can't determine with Xfire. You can't tell how many people just stopped using it, or if they stopped playing the game.  The only way to know is if it was possible to track if a user moved from one game to another or if that user hasn't actually turned the program on before playing, and that info can't be got. 

It has to be assumed, like with a lot of statistics, that that margin of error is small enough to not effect the observable trend.  We can assume that with the length of time that the software has been available and used, and based on it's accuracy in judging prior games, that any trend here on out is accurate.

I don't like it because it's not controlled.  That doesn't make it a bad way to judge trends though, because it has been accurate in the past.  WoW is a great example.  Before it was ever reported that they lost a million subs, Xfire indicated a trend that not as many people were playing, and it observed, reported, and coinsidentally denied.  In the end, it was correct as blizzard reported the drop in players themselves. 

I think it's a litte early to use Xfire numbers, but that doesn't mean that a month or two down the road it won't be a viable source of determining if people are staying with the game or not. 

If 100k people were using Xfire at the start, and 3 months later only 20k are using it in the same game, that's a pretty clear indicator that 80k likely quit playing it.  It can be assumed, with relative accuracy based on past examples, that 80k people didn't just stop using Xfire. 

Yes, Xfire absolutely does give you a statistical trend of gamer habbits.  It's one of the ponts of the program.  It was specifically designed to track what games people play.  You can't deny it because it's not official  or because it's optional to use.  it's in use, and by enough people at this point to see what's happening in a game. 

Seriously, I can't fix this.  Just awful.  Believe me, it hurt me a lot more typing this out then it did for anyone to actually read it.

  gaeanprayer

Novice Member

Joined: 8/06/08
Posts: 2360

9/19/12 5:07:03 PM#137
Originally posted by Tayah
Originally posted by Lord.Bachus

Combat it much more active and intesive then old time MMO´s.  Thats why most people dont even read whats in the map chat. We´re busy playing the game and having a great time

This happens to me a lot. When I'm out doing events and exploring I get lost in the game and forget my chat box is there.

This is my experience too, though I'm making a concerted effort to change that now. This is one of the most common complaints I see, but really I'm not intentionally ignoring people. There's just so much going on at once. Couple that with raidcall in my ears and guildees asking questions, and general/world chat are generally the least of my concern.

"Forums aren't for intelligent discussion; they're for blow-hards with unwavering opinions."

  Pivotelite

Novice Member

Joined: 1/19/12
Posts: 2189

9/19/12 5:16:01 PM#138

I don't know why people don't trust XFIRE, it's completely reliable, TSW and TERA are having trouble, thats seen on Xfire, WoW is losing players because of GW2 and Pandas soon, GW2 honeymoon is ending so people are playing less.

 

Xfire statistics show these things just fine. It's not 100% accurate, but it allows us to moniter a good chunk of the playerbase.

  william0532

Novice Member

Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 240

9/19/12 5:20:19 PM#139
When did gaming become about monitoring the sub rates of games? Even though I'm sure some of you will lie and say you have stock in these companies, other than being a shareholder, spending your free time monitoring game numbers is pretty sad. Don't do it unless you log on and notice there is no one to play with(like TOR).
  Dihoru

Elite Member

Joined: 1/11/06
Posts: 2666

9/19/12 5:23:17 PM#140
Originally posted by Pivotelite

I don't know why people don't trust XFIRE, it's completely reliable, TSW and TERA are having trouble, thats seen on Xfire, WoW is losing players because of GW2 and Pandas soon, GW2 honeymoon is ending so people are playing less.

 

Xfire statistics show these things just fine. It's not 100% accurate, but it allows us to moniter a good chunk of the playerbase.

The problem is it isn't showing an accurate enough picture with all/most games which throws into doubt it's whole bloody point as a reliable source of information, the simplest example is EVE-Online, arguably one of the better sandbox games around, niche game,  if you look at its user data it is completely off and I mean completely, 4000 users out of a registered 500000-600000+ userbase is not an accurate gauge and concurrent user levels have been the same for roughly 3 years now (+/- 1000 when expansions roll out/vacation time hits) yet Xfire is showing wild fluctuations which just aren't there in reality, that in itself casts doubt for me onto Xfire as a data gathering tool.

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