Originally posted by waynejr2

Originally posted by tawess

How good for them

 

"World of Warcraft Cataclysm sells 3.3M units in its first day out"

 

That should tell you units sold equals jack until the concurent users numbers show up. (and that of is where things turn a bit more bleak for WoW.) But then again, good for them. that shows that they have a good chance to make some serious money and that in turn is good for the future employment of the dev team. So *thumbs up*

Well, since you opened the doors to the 3.3 opening day cata numbers:  What if MOP has a lower number on opening day?  What would that tell us?

It would tell us that MOP had lower numbers on opening day.

I gotta love how a congratulatory thread going out to ANET turns into a "WoW's goin down" thread.

It just goes to show you how big WoW REALLY is. When the game can dominate Arena Net's own success threads in 3rd party forums, forget about player bases.

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Originally posted by IceAge

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Originally posted by lizardbones  

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Originally posted by IceAge Ok, fine! I will explain how I ended up at those numbers :   I toke the offical announcements for box sales for each expansion WoW had untill now! The vast result was that : 1) BC sold 3.5 mil copies in the first month! Can you safely say that it sold more then 5 mil copies untill now? With a subscription base of 12 mil at is *finest* and 9 mil which they have now? With 50% from the total subs in EU/NA where boxes counts? If yes, please tell me your facts! I will not be offended, trust me! 2) WOLK sold 2.8 mil 1st 24 hours while Cata sold 3.3 mil. Then Blizzard stoped releasing numbers after the first month ( unless you find a source ) . Now, how many boxes do you think they sold untill now? Where the base subs have been around 4-6 mils ? I add 5 mils copies each expansion, because the medium subscriptions were at 5 mil. That's why I ended up with 15 mils boxes sold ONLY for expansions! I then add another 5 mil boxes of the original WoW + another 5 mil just for the sake of being .. wrong! Heck, you can also add 5 mil in plus if you want! That would be 30 mil boxes sold! I did not put Asia here, since Blizzard never released Asia box sales, because they don't sell boxes over there as you may know! Don't get me wrong, I like when someone comes and .. tell me some good arguments about how I am wrong, so if you do have some good arguments, please share them with me! Again, I will not be offended and I will peaceful communicate with you! I do see that you have used some rudimentary maths, but you have still left out honey badgers. Also, you skipped to guessing the final number directly, instead of guessing an intermediate number. You're supposed to guess an intermediate number like the retention rate and then do calculations using the guessed at intermediate numbers. I don't know why, but for some reason guessing the intermediate numbers, and then calculating is preferable to guessing the final result.  Retention rate does not actually means the increase in boxe sales! You added up the retation rate from the begining to this date ( 8 years ) 8x9 = 72 + 9 mils = 81 : 2 = 40.5 mils! This is your number. Retention means static , and you cannot use it when it comes to boxe sales! You cannot multiply numbers of subscriptions with years and then say that 40.5 mils boxes have been sold. What you've done is basically say that 40.5 mil have been played WoW over 8 years! If I understood that correctly! And even so , you cannot actually say that all players have been purchased all the 3 expansion, because that would end up as 121.5 mil boxes sold.

Anyway , I am not saying that my calculation is correct! What I am saying is that retention is retantion, and you cannot multiply it by 8 for the sake of just muliply it because it has been out for 8 years!

The same 4.5 mil players ( numbers ) today, are the same 4.5 mil from last year! And the 4.5 mil for the last year are the same 4.5 mil from 2 years ago! And yes, there are almost the same players! You can't say that 4.5 mil from this year , are are totaly new from the 4.5 players from last year or 2 year ago! Ok, maybe not ALL of them, but the majority!

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Originally posted by roo67 Originally posted by IceAge  

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That's why I ended up with 15 mils boxes sold ONLY for expansions! I then add another 5 mil boxes of the original WoW + another 5 mil just for the sake of being .. wrong! Heck, you can also add 5 mil in plus if you want! That would be 30 mil boxes sold!  

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Out of interest how many copys did WoW Vanilla sell in its first month ? Expansions to a popular established  game such as well are bound to sell well  . So really you need to compare the initial months sales of GW2 and WoW in such an arguement .  

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Coming from this person it had: http://www.pvcmuseum.com/games/charts/world-of-warcraft-sales.htm Worldwide (January 2005) - 700,000

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Originally posted by IceAge

Originally posted by Loktofeit

Originally posted by IceAge

WoW has been growing since the release to around 2010/2011 if I am correct which then had 12 mil subs! Let's just say that 20 mil has tried WoW since 2004 till today, it's a bit much , but just let's assume! From the total of 20 mil, 10 mil are the ones who bought boxes, since the rest are from Asia and most of them play from internet caffe's where they don't need to buy a boxe in order to play, they just need to pay by hour.

From the total of 10 mils of box buyers, in no way, they could ALL buy all 4 expansion.

Let's see :

Burning Crusade = 2.4 in the first 24h. 1st month 3.5 mils copies ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_of_Warcraft:_The_Burning_Crusade )

Wrath of the Lich King = 2.8 mil in the first 24h ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_of_Warcraft:_Wrath_of_the_Lich_King

Cataclysm = 3.3 mil in the first 24 hours ( see above link for the source )

That makes 9.6 mils of box sales. No, it does not mean that if they sold 2.8 mil in the first 24 hours, it doubled in the first month ( see Burning Crusade )

Ok, let's say they sold 4 mil copies on each expansion, since WoW sold after the first month too! Fuck, let's put 5 mils each expansion. That means we have 15 mil boxes sold. Let's do a simple math now! 15 mil : 3 expansion, that's 5 mil players ( which is normal and kinda true from the blizzard reports ) and then let's add the 5 mil to the 15 mil , since peoples owned and payed for the box since the release of it! That would be 20 mils of boxes sold in EU/NA!

Heck, let's put 25 mils boxes, but that's it! No 40-60 or 80 mils boxes sold!

That was a rather unintelligible ramble of made up numbers and arbitrary calculation to prove your point. The fact that you were snarky about it made it quite amusing.

Can you share the formula you used for churn to get that 20 million? You did figure in churn, right?

I ask because i don't see it anywhere in your numbers - numbers you so smugly present to support your position.

See, my post to him was solely about the missing part of his math, a piece you seem to have overlooked, as well. If you took a moment from jumping on people to try to prove them wrong, you'd see that.

Ok, fine! I will explain how I ended up at those numbers :

I toke the offical announcements for box sales for each expansion WoW had untill now! The vast result was that :

1) BC sold 3.5 mil copies in the first month! Can you safely say that it sold more then 5 mil copies untill now? With a subscription base of 12 mil at is *finest* and 9 mil which they have now? With 50% from the total subs in EU/NA where boxes counts? If yes, please tell me your facts! I will not be offended, trust me!

2) WOLK sold 2.8 mil 1st 24 hours while Cata sold 3.3 mil. Then Blizzard stoped releasing numbers after the first month ( unless you find a source ) . Now, how many boxes do you think they sold untill now? Where the base subs have been around 4-6 mils ? I add 5 mils copies each expansion, because the medium subscriptions were at 5 mil.

That's why I ended up with 15 mils boxes sold ONLY for expansions! I then add another 5 mil boxes of the original WoW + another 5 mil just for the sake of being .. wrong! Heck, you can also add 5 mil in plus if you want! That would be 30 mil boxes sold!

I did not put Asia here, since Blizzard never released Asia box sales, because they don't sell boxes over there as you may know!

Don't get me wrong, I like when someone comes and .. tell me some good arguments about how I am wrong, so if you do have some good arguments, please share them with me! Again, I will not be offended and I will peaceful communicate with you!

Except WoW never had 9 - 12 million subscriptions.  It had 9 - 12 million active accounts of which a majority of those were in Asia.  The payment model there isn't the $15/mo is it.  So they weren't generating $15/mo  * 9mill players.  They were generating a few million sub dollars plus the rest from Asia which is really hard to calculate.  It's still not surpassed by any Western game, but it pales in comparison to the most popular Asian games.  I think WoW comes in at 5th in revenue comparison to the F2P games.

I want to point this out because WoW's success is only measured against the Western market but uses it's entire player pool to do so.  The hard to swallow fact is that, compared with Asia, the West is a much smaller demographic.

ANet will eventually crush WoW because it only has room to grow for several years.  WoW has very little room left to progress.  In all it's kind of a silly comparison because WoW was from a previous paradigm and the world and market are much different now.  I still believe that no one will topple the success Blizzard had at their pinnacle with WoW, including Blizzard themselves.

Originally posted by lizardbones

 

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Originally posted by roo67

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Originally posted by Loktofeit

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Originally posted by lizardbones   You didn't use maths, blasting or even Honey Badgers in your numbers. You could have at least thrown in some XFire. Like this: 8 years at 9 million players at a 50% retention rate gives you 9 million + (4.5 million times 7), which is HONEY BADGER!!!!1! No, it's 40.5 million boxes sold. See? That's how we roll around here.  

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Word.

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a) whats a honey badger is it like a normal badger ?

 

b) will they be playable in the expansion that folllows MoP ?

 

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a) Honey Badger do not give a f***. They just don't.

b) I don't think so. But if you could, I might actually be able to stomach the mess that was Cataclysm's leveling to play one.

 

a) Honey Badger is one badass badger. Check this out.

Originally posted by Torvaldr

 

Except WoW never had 9 - 12 million subscriptions.  It had 9 - 12 million active accounts of which a majority of those were in Asia.  The payment model there isn't the $15/mo is it.  So they weren't generating $15/mo  * 9mill players.  They were generating a few million sub dollars plus the rest from Asia which is really hard to calculate.  It's still not surpassed by any Western game, but it pales in comparison to the most popular Asian games.  I think WoW comes in at 5th in revenue comparison to the F2P games.

I want to point this out because WoW's success is only measured against the Western market but uses it's entire player pool to do so.  The hard to swallow fact is that, compared with Asia, the West is a much smaller demographic.

ANet will eventually crush WoW because it only has room to grow for several years.  WoW has very little room left to progress.  In all it's kind of a silly comparison because WoW was from a previous paradigm and the world and market are much different now.  I still believe that no one will topple the success Blizzard had at their pinnacle with WoW, including Blizzard themselves.

I can appreciate your perspective and there is a lot of truth especially about the differences between the western and asian marktets, except it reads like you are trying to trivialize their revenue from the asian markets. Or trying to get us to exclude it.

And you are also making a pretty bold prediction there. Don't forget, this is ANET's 2nd attempt at this. And it really doesn't look like it's going to happen this time either.

Originally posted by Torvaldr

ANet will eventually crush WoW because it only has room to grow for several years.  WoW has very little room left to progress.  In all it's kind of a silly comparison because WoW was from a previous paradigm and the world and market are much different now.  I still believe that no one will topple the success Blizzard had at their pinnacle with WoW, including Blizzard themselves.

ROFLMAO ! You are DELUSIONAL kid ;)

gw2 sold 2m copies by now as b2p game?  Diablo 3 sold 10m copies prerelease (with wows annual pass but it doesnt matter cause money is money.

not even talking about WoW.. there will never again be a mmorpg so successfull because the market is overflooded.

except project titan possibly. i bought every single  blizzard game since warctaft 2 and i blizzard never failed to impress me and i gladly give them my money for their next MMORPG .

Originally posted by Nikkita

Originally posted by TdogSkal

Originally posted by DiSpLiFF

Originally posted by gravesworn
Really can we compare it to other mmos as far as financial inqury is concerned? Would we not need to compare it to other non subscription based games? Does anyone know how to find the first two weeks of box sales for wow? I dont know how you to compare a subscription based game over a non subscription based game.

Diablo 3 sold over 3.6 million in 24 hours if you want to compare to non-subscription game. 

just throwing it out there. 

Yea but I think its pretty safe to say that Most of those who bought D3 got it because they loved D2 and had to wait 10+ years for a new Diablo and I think its safe to say that the good majority do not play D3 anymore because it was a crappy game.

So yes Diablo 3 should have out sold Guild Wars 2.  Many more people have been waiting on Diablo 3 then Guild Wars 2.

7 million total in GW1 sales. Acording to your logic regarding Diablo, GW1 too also has an established fan base so it should have sold a lot more then?

 

No, per my logic, more then 7 million people played D2 and where waiting for the next Diablo which is a much bigger fan base then Guild wars or Guild wars 2.   Also, People know that Guild Wars 2 is not Guild Wars 1 but people did not know that Diable 3 was not going to be like Diable 2 at the time. 

You might need to learn about logic before you hurt yourself.

Originally posted by Lethality

Originally posted by Nikkita

 

7 million total in GW1 sales. Acording to your logic regarding Diablo, GW1 too also has an established fan base so it should have sold a lot more then?

 

Yeah they seem to gloss over this. The minute you say GW1 was a minor game, they say BUT IT SOLD 7 MILLOIN!N!N!#!@!

And as soon as GW2 doesn't sell 7 million, they say NTO AS BIG AS DIABLO LOLOLLO

 

 

Gloss over what? That D2 had more then 7 million people playing it and waiting for the next diablo?  Nope, nobody but you and the other haters do not realize or care to understand that the Diablo fan base is larger then the Guild Wars 2 fan base. 

Diablo 3 had people waiting 10+ years for it, of course it sold better.   Non MMO gamer where waiting on Diablo3 as well as MMO gamers.  I know its hard for people like you think there are gamers that never touch MMOs but thats reality.

Originally posted by kadepsyson

Originally posted by fatboy21007
Look out WoW,  some1 is gaining steam XD

WoW has more subscribers than GW2 ever will

Gotta be a troll post, GW2 has no subs.

Originally posted by kadepsyson

Originally posted by fatboy21007
Look out WoW,  some1 is gaining steam XD

WoW has more subscribers than GW2 ever will

thats not saying much, as gw2 doesnt have a subscription :p

Originally posted by silverreign

since the game isnt sub based, the box sales vs actual people playing are deceiving. i bought the game but i am not playing anymore. yet my box sale is being considered as a playing member. 2 million box sales doesnt exactly mean 2 million people playing

thats a good point. i also bought the game but dont play.

you cant compare a sub based game to a B2P game easily. its apples to oranges.

like if you were going by box sales for WoW, for example...its box sales thru the years i'm sure far outnumber its active subs

yes yes dont compare p2p with b2p

d3 vs gw2 sales is good ..and oh yeah i still play it and so is everyone of my friends..maybe u dont know but diablo was never a game u play non stop. it was alwaays a game u coem back to and play for few hours.. a backup game for fun in short bursts so to say.

also we arent here talking if the game is a success for the players..we are talking about success as in sales and i predict GW2 will not reach GW 1 sales ever simply because the market was almost EMPTY when GW1 was released and i myself stuck with it for many many years (also playing wow at same time).

i mean look at all the MMO releases in 2012 !! its CRAZY how many good new games are coming out and NONE of them will hold the playerbase for long.

2012 is simply a awesome year for the gamer but a very bad year for publishers and developers.

Originally posted by GeezerGamer

Originally posted by waynejr2

Originally posted by tawess

How good for them

 

"World of Warcraft Cataclysm sells 3.3M units in its first day out"

 

That should tell you units sold equals jack until the concurent users numbers show up. (and that of is where things turn a bit more bleak for WoW.) But then again, good for them. that shows that they have a good chance to make some serious money and that in turn is good for the future employment of the dev team. So *thumbs up*

Well, since you opened the doors to the 3.3 opening day cata numbers:  What if MOP has a lower number on opening day?  What would that tell us?

It would tell us that MOP had lower numbers on opening day.

I gotta love how a congratulatory thread going out to ANET turns into a "WoW's goin down" thread.

It just goes to show you how big WoW REALLY is. When the game can dominate Arena Net's own success threads in 3rd party forums, forget about player bases.

You can't tell if I am pro wow, anti wow or playing devils advocate here.  You can presume, but that's your bag baby.

Originally posted by waynejr2

Originally posted by GeezerGamer

Originally posted by waynejr2

Originally posted by tawess

How good for them

 

"World of Warcraft Cataclysm sells 3.3M units in its first day out"

 

That should tell you units sold equals jack until the concurent users numbers show up. (and that of is where things turn a bit more bleak for WoW.) But then again, good for them. that shows that they have a good chance to make some serious money and that in turn is good for the future employment of the dev team. So *thumbs up*

Well, since you opened the doors to the 3.3 opening day cata numbers:  What if MOP has a lower number on opening day?  What would that tell us?

It would tell us that MOP had lower numbers on opening day.

I gotta love how a congratulatory thread going out to ANET turns into a "WoW's goin down" thread.

It just goes to show you how big WoW REALLY is. When the game can dominate Arena Net's own success threads in 3rd party forums, forget about player bases.

You can't tell if I am pro wow, anti wow or playing devils advocate here.  You can presume, but that's your bag baby.

Doesn't matter what your preference is. Thread still turned towards WoW.

Originally posted by GeezerGamer

Originally posted by waynejr2

Originally posted by GeezerGamer

Originally posted by waynejr2

Originally posted by tawess

How good for them

 

"World of Warcraft Cataclysm sells 3.3M units in its first day out"

 

That should tell you units sold equals jack until the concurent users numbers show up. (and that of is where things turn a bit more bleak for WoW.) But then again, good for them. that shows that they have a good chance to make some serious money and that in turn is good for the future employment of the dev team. So *thumbs up*

Well, since you opened the doors to the 3.3 opening day cata numbers:  What if MOP has a lower number on opening day?  What would that tell us?

It would tell us that MOP had lower numbers on opening day.

I gotta love how a congratulatory thread going out to ANET turns into a "WoW's goin down" thread.

It just goes to show you how big WoW REALLY is. When the game can dominate Arena Net's own success threads in 3rd party forums, forget about player bases.

You can't tell if I am pro wow, anti wow or playing devils advocate here.  You can presume, but that's your bag baby.

Doesn't matter what your preference is. Thread still turned towards WoW.

and u are only making sure that WoW dominates another gw2 thread ..keep supporting!!

I always wonder where those 12 million WoW and 10 million D3 user ar, the WoW kids always bring up. They mostly seem to be missing here on Western game server. Because currently it looks more like ~2 million semactive WoW and 2 million d3 user are playing on EU/US server  vs GW2's ~2 million highly active EU/US userbase

Are we comparing global launch/post launch sales/usernumbers of games with 20 times larger marketing budget, including free handouts, including alternative payment/trial system models and finished expansion to (quantitative) much larger foreign markets, up to 8 years after launch vs GW2 EU/US sales after 2 weeks?

But that would be biased and misleading would it? The Blizzard fanbois wouldn't try to do that, would they?

Originally posted by kadepsyson

Originally posted by fatboy21007
Look out WoW,  some1 is gaining steam XD

WoW has more subscribers than GW2 ever will

GW2 doesn't have subscribers. It has people that buy it and play it. They subscribe to nothing. So, yea WoW will have more subscribers then GW2 ever will.

Originally posted by f0dell54

Originally posted by kadepsyson

Originally posted by fatboy21007
Look out WoW,  some1 is gaining steam XD

WoW has more subscribers than GW2 ever will

GW2 doesn't have subscribers. It has people that buy it and play it. They subscribe to nothing. So, yea WoW will have more subscribers then GW2 ever will.

That was the joke.  He's been quoted for it multiple times this whole thread.  He has successfully trolled you all.

Originally posted by QuicklyScott

Originally posted by f0dell54

Originally posted by kadepsyson

Originally posted by fatboy21007
Look out WoW,  some1 is gaining steam XD

WoW has more subscribers than GW2 ever will

GW2 doesn't have subscribers. It has people that buy it and play it. They subscribe to nothing. So, yea WoW will have more subscribers then GW2 ever will.

That was the joke.  He's been quoted for it multiple times this whole thread.  He has successfully trolled you all.

Troll accepted

Well played sir. Well played

Originally posted by Thralia

Originally posted by GeezerGamer

Originally posted by waynejr2

Originally posted by GeezerGamer

Originally posted by waynejr2

Originally posted by tawess

How good for them

 

"World of Warcraft Cataclysm sells 3.3M units in its first day out"

 

That should tell you units sold equals jack until the concurent users numbers show up. (and that of is where things turn a bit more bleak for WoW.) But then again, good for them. that shows that they have a good chance to make some serious money and that in turn is good for the future employment of the dev team. So *thumbs up*

Well, since you opened the doors to the 3.3 opening day cata numbers:  What if MOP has a lower number on opening day?  What would that tell us?

It would tell us that MOP had lower numbers on opening day.

I gotta love how a congratulatory thread going out to ANET turns into a "WoW's goin down" thread.

It just goes to show you how big WoW REALLY is. When the game can dominate Arena Net's own success threads in 3rd party forums, forget about player bases.

You can't tell if I am pro wow, anti wow or playing devils advocate here.  You can presume, but that's your bag baby.

Doesn't matter what your preference is. Thread still turned towards WoW.

and u are only making sure that WoW dominates another gw2 thread ..keep supporting!!

If this was directed at me, I really don't care one way or another who supports what. I was simply making the observation about the direction this thread went and why.