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Originally posted by gervaise1
If we had the EA data we would be able to say exactly what the difference between 1 and 1,000 was. Just because we don't doesn't make them the same. By that logic we may as well abandon counting because 1 is the same as 1,000 and so the same as 1,000,000. Hence many = fewer!

From the outset this thread was never about "doom and gloom". Indeed it rebuffed the usual "doom and gloom" approach by refusing to focus on hours played - always high in the first few daysbefore falling back resulting in "the game is failing" talk.

And what the tracking of the XFire player numbers suggested very, very quickly was that SWTOR was tanking; heading for something approaching oblivion. It was not behaving like WAR, or AoC or Rift etc. Those and other games, I agree with you, see a big drop of maybe 50% after the 30-days is over but then the number levels off. Hence WAR still had 300k subs 6 months out. And in the next 6 months you get a further albeit slower decline. 

For SWTOR to have done as well as EA would have had to announce subs of 900k+ at their last conference call.

Estimates were made from the XFire numbers - more than once. With margins of error and the assumption that XFire was understating the numbers - so add on a few hundred thousand because "surely things can't be this bad". And they were.

SWTOR has not experience a normal mmo drop off. It has behaved like a single player game with 80 or 150 or whatever hours of gameplay. And when it is done it is done.  

 

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The only thing that has held true with XFire is a correlation between a drop in XFire players and a drop in actual players. The predictions and estimates did not come with a margin of error. A margin of error is a calculated value and you can't calculate the margin of error when all you have is one set of data and nothing to compare it to.

People did estimate from XFire numbers, and they were wrong. They were off by hundreds of thousands of players. To be fair, they couldn't possibly be right unless they were really good at guessing. XFire doesn't show subscribers, it shows players. The ratio of subscribers to players is unknown, as well as the ratio of XFire players to actual players. The ratio between XFire players and actual players changes at unknown rates. There are too many unknowns for anyone to make a good estimate of players or subscribers in any game. Unless, of course, the developer releases subscribers and player numbers.

If we allow that one instance of something different happening with SWToR validates XFire, we've achieved the following:
Instead of having 1 degree of difference between values in a range like "Less", "No Change" and "More", now we can have 2 degrees of difference between values in a range like "A Lot Less", "Less", "No Change", "More" and "A Lot More".

To be honest, I'm fine with XFire itself, but people here want it to mean something that it doesn't mean. They keep comparing it to political polls or scientific studies. They keep throwing out words like "random sampling", "self selected sample" and they keep talking about the size of the sample being taken. XFire is worse than not knowing because it just increases the amount of misinformation.

Here's some stuff that doesn't happen with XFire.
Nobody compares Weeks 1 through 8 of an MMORPG's life with Weeks 1 through 8 of another MMORPG's life using XFire's numbers.
Nobody compares the XFire population numbers to the game population numbers, showing how the differences in the overall population affect the game's populations.
Nobody notes how all the game's XFire numbers rise and fall together, based on XFire's overall population instead of the game's populations.
I doubt anyone will really be able to tell me about the problems with looking at the above three things and getting something meaningful out of it. It's probably too much to expect, but the clue is that XFire doesn't tell you enough about the numbers they are showing you for the numbers to be meaningful.

People keep referencing XFire's numbers, and they're not even doing a decent job of looking at the numbers themselves. Never mind the horrible job being done relating XFire's numbers to actual players or subscribers.

SWTOR now under Aion

barely above EVE online (a "niche" game, according to the SWTOR forums in January ^^)

not in top 20 any more

SWTOR has lost 60% of its players in the last 4 weeks on xfire

yes, I know... xfire players hate swtor, but buy it still, then leave the game to make it look bad...

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Originally posted by mmojunkie5000
SWTOR now under Aion

barely above EVE online (a "niche" game, according to the SWTOR forums in January ^^)

not in top 20 any more

SWTOR has lost 60% of its players in the last 4 weeks on xfire

yes, I know... xfire players hate swtor, but buy it still, then leave the game to make it look bad...

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Originally posted by lizardbones

 

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Originally posted by mmojunkie5000
SWTOR now under Aion

 

barely above EVE online (a "niche" game, according to the SWTOR forums in January ^^)

not in top 20 any more

SWTOR has lost 60% of its players in the last 4 weeks on xfire

yes, I know... xfire players hate swtor, but buy it still, then leave the game to make it look bad...

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I would think they leave the game because they don't want to play any longer. Leaving the game to make it look bad seems like kind of a reach.

 

It was obvious sarcasm ...

Originally posted by mmojunkie5000

SWTOR has lost 60% of its players in the last 4 weeks on xfire

That's what happens when a competitor releases a game with a smaller budget and 10x the depth of your own game.  Oh yeah and it doesn't charge a sub.  It also happens when you lay off a lot of your devs and set the rest to getting the game ready for F2P.

I'm very curious what the response to SWTOR would have been if it had been B2P.

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Originally posted by FrodoFragins

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Originally posted by mmojunkie5000 SWTOR has lost 60% of its players in the last 4 weeks on xfire

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That's what happens when a competitor releases a game with a smaller budget and 10x the depth of your own game.  Oh yeah and it doesn't charge a sub.  It also happens when you lay off a lot of your devs and set the rest to getting the game ready for F2P.

I'm very curious what the response to SWTOR would have been if it had been B2P.

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SWTOR hasn't lost 60% of its players (based on XFire) in the last 4 weeks!

It is a combination of:

a) about 20% fewer players (who also use XFire); down to c.950 compared to c.1150 and

b) those players playing about 35% less based on the average hours played per day (down to c. 3.5 compared to 4.5 and (when the endless level 15 started the average went above 5).

All of this is bad news - whichever way you spin it. A sign maybe of how hard it will be for EA to maintain player interest once it goes F2P.

The "60% in the last 4 weeks" however is an example however of people not using using the XFire data properly :)  

Originally posted by gervaise1

SWTOR hasn't lost 60% of its players (based on XFire) in the last 4 weeks!

It is a combination of:

a) about 20% fewer players (who also use XFire); down to c.950 compared to c.1150 and

b) those players playing about 35% less based on the average hours played per day (down to c. 3.5 compared to 4.5 and (when the endless level 15 started the average went above 5).

All of this is bad news - whichever way you spin it. A sign maybe of how hard it will be for EA to maintain player interest once it goes F2P.

The "60% in the last 4 weeks" however is an example however of people not using using the XFire data properly :)  

SWTOR had about 1600 players a few weeks ago...

so the drop off in players is already hefty...

but xfire even tracks people who just log in to say goodbye, or check player numbers, or sell their stuff, or commit virtual suicide, then logging out again to play GW2.

my point is, that someone who doesn't play very long is likely to stop playing alltogether.

time played is a way better indicator than players logging in

it is also the thing that makes the game seem alive. what good is it to you if there are 3 mil SWTOR players who just log in 5 minutes a week to check the GTN?

^^^^

OK, based on 1600 it is a bigger % drop. Crucially the decline hasn't stopped yet. In the 900-1100 range now but still no sign of it finding a level.

Totally agree as well that people playing less is a first step in people leaving the game. And once they have done all the story lines they want I am not sure there is a great deal for them to stick around for.

Hah, this is really something.  This thread keeps on rolling and the moment a GW2 version pops it gets "nipped in the bud".  They're not even attempting to hide any bias. 

I can't wait to see the XFire charts after MoP comes outs.

Originally posted by mmojunkie5000

SWTOR now under Aion

barely above EVE online (a "niche" game, according to the SWTOR forums in January ^^)

not in top 20 any more

 

SWTOR has lost 60% of its players in the last 4 weeks on xfire

 

yes, I know... xfire players hate swtor, but buy it still, then leave the game to make it look bad...

Well SWTOR for back to being 3rd most played  MMO (No: 17 in all games tracked) after GW2 (No: 3) and WoW (No: 5) ... Aion is back to No: 22, EVE online is No: 27, LOTRO is No: 35, TSW is No: 62 and   Rift with only 130 Xfire members (No:80) 

GW2 drops to an all time low of 28.7k hours, down from 36.5 last tuesday (21.4% drop)

http://beta.xfire.com/games/gw2

It seems GW2's retention rate is even lower than SWTOR's at its launch.

Originally posted by krakra70

GW2 drops to an all time low of 28.7k hours, down from 36.5 last tuesday (21.4% drop)

http://beta.xfire.com/games/gw2

 

It seems GW2's retention rate is even lower than SWTOR's at its launch.

Yes surprisingly this seems to be the case. But keep in mind what GW2 is B2P so people who are not playing this month can play the next month without having to resub or anything. Where as in SW:TOR a lost player is pretty much lost as they are more unlikely to come back.

Originally posted by krakra70

GW2 drops to an all time low of 28.7k hours, down from 36.5 last tuesday (21.4% drop)

http://beta.xfire.com/games/gw2

 

It seems GW2's retention rate is even lower than SWTOR's at its launch.

OH MY GOSH !!!

I bet this will cause GW2 to abandon P2P and seek a different payment model.

I'm sure ArenaNet isn't at all proud that the downward curve is linear, even when WoW MoP came out.

If you want to see a nose dive: http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/post/5326787/GW2-Swtor-xfire-numbers-after-1-month-Please-feel-free-to-add-any-other-1st-month-graphs.html#5326787

SWTOR plummeted right around the Jan.20th resub date.

Why would you bring this up? If you get enough people to agree with you, will it make you feel better about http://beta.xfire.com/games/swtor ?

Originally posted by tiefighter25

Originally posted by krakra70

GW2 drops to an all time low of 28.7k hours, down from 36.5 last tuesday (21.4% drop)

http://beta.xfire.com/games/gw2

 

It seems GW2's retention rate is even lower than SWTOR's at its launch.

OH MY GOSH !!!

I bet this will cause GW2 to abandon P2P and seek a different payment model.

I'm sure ArenaNet isn't at all proud that the downward curve is linear, even when WoW MoP came out.

If you want to see a nose dive: http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/post/5326787/GW2-Swtor-xfire-numbers-after-1-month-Please-feel-free-to-add-any-other-1st-month-graphs.html#5326787

SWTOR plummeted right around the Jan.20th resub date.

Why would you bring this up? If you get enough people to agree with you, will it make you feel better about http://beta.xfire.com/games/swtor ?

You linked to the GW2 nosedive by mistake ;)

Originally posted by Yamota

Originally posted by krakra70

GW2 drops to an all time low of 28.7k hours, down from 36.5 last tuesday (21.4% drop)

http://beta.xfire.com/games/gw2

 

It seems GW2's retention rate is even lower than SWTOR's at its launch.

Yes surprisingly this seems to be the case. But keep in mind what GW2 is B2P so people who are not playing this month can play the next month without having to resub or anything. Where as in SW:TOR a lost player is pretty much lost as they are more unlikely to come back.

It really doesn't matter. I would say that SWTOR probably did make some extra change off the few months subs that it did collect as opposed to just having straight box sales. What it shows is the sad state of MMOs. Neither GW2 nor SWTOR had any real staying power.

Originally posted by stevebmbsqd

Originally posted by Yamota

Originally posted by krakra70

GW2 drops to an all time low of 28.7k hours, down from 36.5 last tuesday (21.4% drop)

http://beta.xfire.com/games/gw2

 

It seems GW2's retention rate is even lower than SWTOR's at its launch.

Yes surprisingly this seems to be the case. But keep in mind what GW2 is B2P so people who are not playing this month can play the next month without having to resub or anything. Where as in SW:TOR a lost player is pretty much lost as they are more unlikely to come back.

It really doesn't matter. I would say that SWTOR probably did make some extra change off the few months subs that it did collect as opposed to just having straight box sales. What it shows is the sad state of MMOs. Neither GW2 nor SWTOR had any real staying power.

Yes... it seems MMORPGs are turning into single player games which you play for 1-2 months and then move on. Agree it is sad.