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Guild Wars 2

Guild Wars 2 

General Discussion  » 4 x as many Xfire users playing GW2 than WOW.

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127 posts found
  Naevius

Advanced Member

Joined: 4/26/12
Posts: 315

8/30/12 11:25:55 AM#41
Relying on Xfire to get absolute numbers is obviously wrong. However, the ratio of GW2 vs WoW might be meaningful, unless you can make a convincing case for some reason the sampling is non-random. (I.e it's the same as a telephone poll - a random sample of players.)
  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10375

I've become dependent upon spell check. My apologies for stupid grammatical errors.

8/30/12 11:33:21 AM#42


Originally posted by Naevius
Relying on Xfire to get absolute numbers is obviously wrong. However, the ratio of GW2 vs WoW might be meaningful, unless you can make a convincing case for some reason the sampling is non-random. (I.e it's the same as a telephone poll - a random sample of players.)


For the XFire information to be meaningful, you'd have to have a path from XFire Active Players to the game's Active Players, without making a number up in between them. To do that you'd need the game's Active Players. If you had the game's Active Players, you wouldn't need XFire.

Those telephone polls are not random in the way everyone keeps saying they are. People are called at random, but once called they are slotted into groups based on where they live, their income, race, and other factors. Then the information is actually analyzed and the data that doesn't fit a particular profile is thrown out. Once the data has been confirmed 'good', the numbers are analyzed and some conclusions are drawn. If the polls are done right, you can predict things like who the country will vote for as the next president. If the poll is done wrong, you get nothing. XFire isn't anything like this.

For every large, complex problem, there is a simple, clear solution that also happens to be absolutely wrong.

  thinktank001

Advanced Member

Joined: 12/13/08
Posts: 1776

8/30/12 11:36:41 AM#43
Originally posted by plescure

http://www.xfire.com/games/#

 

guess this why the servers are melting!

 

32 million players playing GW2.   Got to be a new record.

 

/sarcasm

  Aelious

Hard Core Member

Joined: 9/27/11
Posts: 2293

World > Quest Progression

8/30/12 11:53:18 AM#44
A scientist would go ballistic if they could get a legitamate survey of almost 20k people (19121). Xfire, though not used by everyone, cannot be manipulated and therefore can be used for a reasonable discussion.

Today may not be the best day for comparison since it's now 54.5 to 13.3 with the patch and all. That said cross sections like xfire are the only legitimate way of measuring GW2's success since there are no subs to report monthly, only box sales.
  Ranyr

Apprentice Member

Joined: 12/08/04
Posts: 182

8/30/12 11:55:55 AM#45
Why use XFire when you can use Steam?
  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10375

I've become dependent upon spell check. My apologies for stupid grammatical errors.

8/30/12 12:02:15 PM#46


Originally posted by Aelious
A scientist would go ballistic if they could get a legitamate survey of almost 20k people (19121). Xfire, though not used by everyone, cannot be manipulated and therefore can be used for a reasonable discussion.Today may not be the best day for comparison since it's now 54.5 to 13.3 with the patch and all. That said cross sections like xfire are the only legitimate way of measuring GW2's success since there are no subs to report monthly, only box sales.


Er...no. The number of people responding isn't as important as making sure that the data being collected is representative of the information you're trying to reveal.

In medical research, the people involved in a study starts off at a very high number. Ten years later when the study is finished, there may be 150 left who are relevant to what is being studied. That study can be applicable to millions of people. It's not the number of people in the study, it's the relevance of the people in the study.

If 1,000 people respond to a poll on who they would vote for in a presidential election, and half the people responding are German Tourists, then the poll is going to be invalid. They don't just take 1,000 random people regardless of who they are. The data is vetted to make sure it's valid. This doesn't happen with XFire. XFire is just a random selection of people who opt-in for reasons that may or may not have anything to do with the game tracking.

Also, "Scientist" as a job doesn't exist any longer. You can't apply for a job as a "Scientist". Things like medical studies and political polls involve way more than one guy (or gal) whose job title is "Scientist".

For every large, complex problem, there is a simple, clear solution that also happens to be absolutely wrong.

  User Deleted
8/30/12 12:03:56 PM#47

GW2 still beats WoW even with the new pre-Pandaria patch released. That still says a LOT about the popularity of the game. Only game to achieve this in years.

  Distopia

Drifter

Joined: 11/22/05
Posts: 15106

"what a boring life, HATING everything" -Gorilla Biscuits

8/30/12 12:10:39 PM#48

The game dominated the hype charts for a long time, not to mention opened a door few AAA mmorpgs have at launch, buy the box to play as long as servers are up. With no sub commitment that definitely will bring in a new wave of players into the genre.

Honestly I'm not surprised.

For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson

It is a sign of a defeated man, to attack at ones character in the face of logic and reason

  Aelious

Hard Core Member

Joined: 9/27/11
Posts: 2293

World > Quest Progression

8/30/12 12:11:22 PM#49
Lizard

I see what your saying but what makes xfire 100% applicable in this discussion is the fact people aren't voting on paper using the honor system, these numbers are tracking what people are playing.

In a discussion of who is playing what MMO right now xfire serves as a great reference.
  ultrastoat

Novice Member

Joined: 7/14/10
Posts: 181

8/30/12 12:12:59 PM#50
Originally posted by Grunch
Originally posted by expresso
Originally posted by Grunch
[mod edit]

We're simply trading McDonalds for Starbucks

Wrong. Its more like trading McDonalds for Five Guys or In and Out Burgers.

Bangarang.

Bangarang will never be cool, I'm sorry...

  Sukiyaki

Hard Core Member

Joined: 8/14/09
Posts: 1271

8/30/12 12:32:08 PM#51

 So what do you wanna tell us?

GW2 appears more successful compared to a dying game?

Or WoW apparently is dying even faster due to GW?

Srsly its x-fire... who cares?

 

  Mothanos

Elite Member

Joined: 10/20/10
Posts: 1762

8/30/12 12:45:19 PM#52

Is this World wide ? EU or USA only ?

Also WoW EU is almost death, people claim that wow has millions of players in USA + EU, thing is i dint see them last year.

Yes i checked every server and their population attachment ranging from Full Medium Low.
Only 15 servers are Full - 20000 players per servers ? a little high but still :P
Only 20/25 servers are Medium - 10000 players for the same of calling it medium !
And around 88 servers are death. ghostowns not more then 1000 players and thats calling it more then it is.


So lets calculate EU population with a grain of salt.


15x 20000 = 300000
25x 10000 = 250000
88x 1000 = 88000
128 servers = 638000 - thats like WoW population EU, no clue about USA but i cant believe it is much better.

So WoW EU around 600k subs, not even close to 1 million.
Asia is where the population is, they pay 1 cent per hour, and are counted as paying subscriptions.

WoW is walking their last steps and MoP is going to make it alot worse.
My guild had over 350 members before Cataclysm, 2 months ago 6 members online....

I dont have any idea about Xfire as i never used it so :P

http://speedtest.net/result/2112016336.png

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10375

I've become dependent upon spell check. My apologies for stupid grammatical errors.

8/30/12 12:48:13 PM#53


Originally posted by Aelious
LizardI see what your saying but what makes xfire 100% applicable in this discussion is the fact people aren't voting on paper using the honor system, these numbers are tracking what people are playing.In a discussion of who is playing what MMO right now xfire serves as a great reference.


Why?

The number of active players can't be calculated from XFire numbers. If you can't calculate the number of active players, you can't compare the active players in one game to the active players in another game. The number of people included in the poll doesn't change this.

There are 4x as many XFire users playing GW2 as are playing WoW is a factual statement. You can't draw any accurate conclusions from this though. It doesn't mean there are 4x as many active GW2 players as there are active WoW players. That statement isn't even qualified to take into consideration Chinese WoW players. Even if the population Chinese WoW players has halved in the past month, there are still 3 million of them - three times as many players as there have been GW2 purchases. That doesn't even include any European or American WoW players.

** edit **

Fun Fact: Studies have shown that what you wear affects how smart you let yourself be. People wearing lab coats, like Scientists do better on IQ tests.

For every large, complex problem, there is a simple, clear solution that also happens to be absolutely wrong.

  Hrimnir

Hard Core Member

Joined: 5/24/10
Posts: 1066

8/30/12 12:50:48 PM#54
Originally posted by plescure

http://www.xfire.com/games/#

 

guess this why the servers are melting!

That means that there are at least 36 million people who bought the game!

"The surest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem those who think alike than those who think differently."

- Friedrich Nietzsche

  thexrated

Apprentice Member

Joined: 11/26/04
Posts: 1379

8/30/12 12:53:38 PM#55
Originally posted by varrius
Originally posted by plescure

http://www.xfire.com/games/#

 

guess this why the servers are melting!

 

A survey indicated less than 50% of the WoW population even uses XFIRE.

I personally don't know anyone who is currently using it or has used it in the past. Would be interesting to see the demographics of those who actually use it.

"The person who experiences greatness must have a feeling for the myth he is in."

  Drachasor

Novice Member

Joined: 3/22/09
Posts: 2693

8/30/12 12:57:42 PM#56
Originally posted by lizardbones

 


Originally posted by Aelious
LizardI see what your saying but what makes xfire 100% applicable in this discussion is the fact people aren't voting on paper using the honor system, these numbers are tracking what people are playing.In a discussion of who is playing what MMO right now xfire serves as a great reference.



Why?

The number of active players can't be calculated from XFire numbers. If you can't calculate the number of active players, you can't compare the active players in one game to the active players in another game. The number of people included in the poll doesn't change this.

There are 4x as many XFire users playing GW2 as are playing WoW is a factual statement. You can't draw any accurate conclusions from this though. It doesn't mean there are 4x as many active GW2 players as there are active WoW players. That statement isn't even qualified to take into consideration Chinese WoW players. Even if the population Chinese WoW players has halved in the past month, there are still 3 million of them - three times as many players as there have been GW2 purchases. That doesn't even include any European or American WoW players.

** edit **

Fun Fact: Studies have shown that what you wear affects how smart you let yourself be. People wearing lab coats, like Scientists do better on IQ tests.

 

Indeed.  Knowing what people who play X-Fire play only tells you what people who play X-Fire play.  The people there are not representative of the MMO gamer population at large.  As such the data you get from it is pretty much worthless.

  Unshra

Novice Member

Joined: 6/23/05
Posts: 382

8/30/12 1:07:00 PM#57

All this talk about Xfire and numbers, the only numbers I see as of this post is that:

13,667 Xfire users play Guild Wars 2: http://beta.xfire.com/games/gw2

and

5,454 Xfire users play World of Warcraft: http://beta.xfire.com/games/wow

 

 

The rest of the e-peen flexing I could not careless about, all that matters is what I game enjoy playing and right now that is Guild Wars 2. How it compares to World of Warcraft in terms of the number of players does not factor in my enjoyment. Though what does is the quality of players and in my opinion Xfire e-peen posts is something that lines up with fanboys, haters, trolls, etcetera in other words a whole lot of nothing.

 

Edit: Links should be working now.


Because flying a Minmatar ship is like going down a flight of stairs on an office chair while firing an Uzi.

  expresso

Tipster

Joined: 3/10/10
Posts: 2087

8/30/12 1:08:31 PM#58
Originally posted by Mothanos

Is this World wide ? EU or USA only ?

Also WoW EU is almost death, people claim that wow has millions of players in USA + EU, thing is i dint see them last year.

Yes i checked every server and their population attachment ranging from Full Medium Low.
Only 15 servers are Full - 20000 players per servers ? a little high but still :P
Only 20/25 servers are Medium - 10000 players for the same of calling it medium !
And around 88 servers are death. ghostowns not more then 1000 players and thats calling it more then it is.


So lets calculate EU population with a grain of salt.


15x 20000 = 300000
25x 10000 = 250000
88x 1000 = 88000
128 servers = 638000 - thats like WoW population EU, no clue about USA but i cant believe it is much better.

So WoW EU around 600k subs, not even close to 1 million.
Asia is where the population is, they pay 1 cent per hour, and are counted as paying subscriptions.

WoW is walking their last steps and MoP is going to make it alot worse.
My guild had over 350 members before Cataclysm, 2 months ago 6 members online....

I dont have any idea about Xfire as i never used it so :P

I'll use real numbers - not sure what toliet you pulled yours out of you cannot even get the correct number of servers.

http://eu.battle.net/wow/en/status as of 18:57 GMT (Peak)

264 EU Servers
1 Full
41 High
154 Med
68 Low

http://us.battle.net/wow/en/status as of 19:02 GMT (Off peak)

245 US Servers
0 Full
37 High
144 Med
64 Low

 

 
  Aelious

Hard Core Member

Joined: 9/27/11
Posts: 2293

World > Quest Progression

8/30/12 1:16:33 PM#59
Originally posted by lizardbones

 


Originally posted by Aelious
LizardI see what your saying but what makes xfire 100% applicable in this discussion is the fact people aren't voting on paper using the honor system, these numbers are tracking what people are playing.In a discussion of who is playing what MMO right now xfire serves as a great reference.



Why?

The number of active players can't be calculated from XFire numbers. If you can't calculate the number of active players, you can't compare the active players in one game to the active players in another game. The number of people included in the poll doesn't change this.

There are 4x as many XFire users playing GW2 as are playing WoW is a factual statement. You can't draw any accurate conclusions from this though. It doesn't mean there are 4x as many active GW2 players as there are active WoW players. That statement isn't even qualified to take into consideration Chinese WoW players. Even if the population Chinese WoW players has halved in the past month, there are still 3 million of them - three times as many players as there have been GW2 purchases. That doesn't even include any European or American WoW players.

** edit **

Fun Fact: Studies have shown that what you wear affects how smart you let yourself be. People wearing lab coats, like Scientists do better on IQ tests.

 

 

Because the biggest launch other than GW2 in recent times, TOR, wasn't able to do it.  That's why.  It's comparative reasoning by what information is there.  Don't mistake that I'm saying I think GW2 is going to be "more successful" than WoW or "kill WoW" or an stupid assumption like that.  I'm going by the fact that in tracking system where WoW has been top of the MMO mountain, GW2 is now eclipsing it.

 

I think you misunderstood why I brought scientific study into the conversation.  I wasn't trying to estimate any number other than what is on xfire's site.  Posters here were commenting that xfire wasn't relevant enough to take seriously and I was making the comparison that in a survey, especially one that is not on the honor system, 20k was a fantastic number.

 

If you take a random (because we don't know the "test subjects") cross section of people doing one specific thing, playing MMOs, 20k results between two options is enough to see a trend and comment on it.

  Mothanos

Elite Member

Joined: 10/20/10
Posts: 1762

8/30/12 1:16:44 PM#60

Seems i dint counted non english servers ;)
I counted all English servers on the server selection screen at prime time Europe.

http://speedtest.net/result/2112016336.png

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