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The Pub at MMORPG.COM  » How many subs do you think WoW could lose to GW2 in the coming year .

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69 posts found
  Oberholzer

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/25/06
Posts: 503

8/27/12 9:11:49 AM#41
I don't know and i don't care how many subs WoW Might lose to GW2. I'm enjoying GW2 so far and I'm really not obsessed with killing other games. I just enjoy what I'm doing. For the people playing WoW and enjoying good for them, I used to some years back. Strange obsession on this site with the demise of games.
  maji

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 1/15/04
Posts: 2006

8/27/12 9:12:55 AM#42
Not many, I guess. The players new to WoW won't stop playing it for GW2. And the WoW players who will play it for a while might check GW2 out or not, but bounce back to WoW later, to be back in their guild with their buddies.

Let's play Fallen Earth (blind, 300 episodes)

Let's play Guild Wars 2 (blind, 45 episodes)

  GeezerGamer

Hard Core Member

Joined: 4/03/12
Posts: 5696

8/27/12 9:20:38 AM#43

Peabody: "Hello out there. Peabody and Sherman here. The WABAC machine has been set to a point in time before MMO's dominated the Internet and Online gaming communities. Let's go back to the beginning of the 1st decade in the new millennium, shall we? There is a relatively new niche genre called the MMORPG. There are new games where players can set up a monthly subscription and log into a game that connects them with thousands of other people all in the same game at the same time allowing them to communicate, interact or even oppose each other at the same time. Some notable titles include EQ, EQII, SWG, City of Heroes. These games are enjoying a stable player base and the more successful ones have a few hundred thousand subscribers."


Sherman: "WOW!"


Peabody: "No, that one comes in later"


Peabody: "Let's fast forward the WABAC Machine a few years. Now it's 2006. There is a new monster game on the scene and "everyone" is playing it. This new game has moved the genre from from subscription numbers from the six figures to the 7 and even 8 figure numbers."


Sherman: "That's unbelievable!"


Peabody: "yes Sherman, it is, but it's indeed true. And because of this completely unexpected growth. you might think it had an overall impact on the smaller titles within the genre. How many games had to shut down as a direct result of the players transitioning from their previous game to this new monster called World of Warcraft?"


Sherman: "I don't know Mr. Peabody. How many?"


Peabody: "Well Sherman, the surprising thing is that none of them had to pull the plug. They all managed to survive the phenomenon known as WoW."


Sherman: "So that means there is a big enough market for everyone to have the game they want to play?"


Peabody: "That's correct Sherman. It seems that those games that were able to generate a loyal fan base did just fine over the long run. However, this does not have anything to do with games that did not have any quality behind them, and succeeded or failed in their own right. Of those that didn't make it, it was not because a bigger title came in and stole all their players away."

  Emerwyn

Novice Member

Joined: 10/21/06
Posts: 77

Unliving.

8/27/12 9:22:18 AM#44
Originally posted by Calerxes
Not many as GW2 isn't a long term investment game mnay players will finish the content and move on quite quickly.

 

That's how it's always been, that's how it'll always be.

  Amjoco

Elite Member

Joined: 9/15/10
Posts: 4940

8/27/12 9:35:58 AM#45
Originally posted by GeezerGamer

Peabody: "Hello out there. Peabody and Sherman here. The WABAC machine has been set to a point in time before MMO's dominated the Internet and Online gaming communities. Let's go back to the beginning of the 1st decade in the new millennium, shall we? There is a relatively new niche genre called the MMORPG. There are new games where players can set up a monthly subscription and log into a game that connects them with thousands of other people all in the same game at the same time allowing them to communicate, interact or even oppose each other at the same time. Some notable titles include EQ, EQII, SWG, City of Heroes. These games are enjoying a stable player base and the more successful ones have a few hundred thousand subscribers."


Sherman: "WOW!"


Peabody: "No, that one comes in later"


Peabody: "Let's fast forward the WABAC Machine a few years. Now it's 2006. There is a new monster game on the scene and "everyone" is playing it. This new game has moved the genre from from subscription numbers from the six figures to the 7 and even 8 figure numbers."


Sherman: "That's unbelievable!"


Peabody: "yes Sherman, it is, but it's indeed true. And because of this completely unexpected growth. you might think it had an overall impact on the smaller titles within the genre. How many games had to shut down as a direct result of the players transitioning from their previous game to this new monster called World of Warcraft?"


Sherman: "I don't know Mr. Peabody. How many?"


Peabody: "Well Sherman, the surprising thing is that none of them had to pull the plug. They all managed to survive the phenomenon known as WoW."


Sherman: "So that means there is a big enough market for everyone to have the game they want to play?"


Peabody: "That's correct Sherman. It seems that those games that were able to generate a loyal fan base did just fine over the long run. However, this does not have anything to do with games that did not have any quality behind them, and succeeded or failed in their own right. Of those that didn't make it, it was not because a bigger title came in and stole all their players away."

lol very nice. The problem is I believe about 95% of the forum members would have to look up who Serman and Peabody are. :)

Death is nothing to us, since when we are, Death has not come, and when death has come, we are not.

  Azylach

Novice Member

Joined: 4/30/12
Posts: 19

8/27/12 9:37:56 AM#46
None. It has been said many times GW2 would be / is a casual game meant to CO-EXIST with sub-based MMO's, not compete against any.
  CcDohl

Novice Member

Joined: 3/02/10
Posts: 65

8/27/12 9:40:43 AM#47
Originally posted by Mysticwoot
None. It has been said many times GW2 would be / is a casual game meant to CO-EXIST with sub-based MMO's, not compete against any.

Agree. It also just isn't a very good game. At least, the pvp is inferior to WoW. I haven't done much pve, but the problems apparent in WvWvW probably affect the whole game.

  Volkon

Novice Member

Joined: 9/14/10
Posts: 3824

Facts do not require fiction for balance.

8/27/12 9:50:07 AM#48
Originally posted by Mephster
Originally posted by Tardcore
Originally posted by korent1991

I don't get those who say "GW2 isn't a lastig investment", "people will move on quickly", etc... So you're saying a game has to have a monthly fee for you to consider it a "lasting investment" or something like that? IF the game is good enough and has a lot of content to keep people busy then the game will surely last for people long enough... With that said...

Wow will loose alot of subs with GW2, AA, EQnext and alot of new mmorpgs just around the block... 

I think a better way to put it, is that GW2 isn't a grindy treadmill timesink. Meaning people can play when they want, and do something else when they don't. They don't need to stay married to the game like they would for others.

So dynamic events from level 1-80 is not a grindly treadmill ? You do the same thing over and over and over... No worries the honeymoon will wear off shortly.

You do? Dang, I've only made it to level 22 after some extensive time spent this weekend and haven't ran into that phenomena yet. Of course, all I've done so far is complete Rata Sum exploring, complete Metrica Province 100%, run numbers of DEs, crafted three disciplines to assorted levels (cooking is actually rather fun...), done some WvW and done the personal story up to the level 24 one (next in line).

 

You can tell GW2 is live... the hater/ fanboy ratio is way off.

___________

 

Oh, one factor people need to keep in mind regarding bouncing back and forth between MMOs is time. Will people really have the time to invest in GW2 and another MMO that also seeks all their time? An entire weekend I only did GW2, completed one PvE zone, still haven't reached a dungeon, only did a little WvW... I simply wouldn't have the time to keep up a subscription game along side GW2 if I wanted to.

Oderint, dum metuant.

  User Deleted
8/27/12 9:54:01 AM#49

WoW subs work like this:

MoP comes out, every die hard WoW player on earth buys it.  Plays it non-stop for like 2 months.  Clears every inch of content in game, claims gladiator title, maxes out current tier gear.  Then stops playing it for 6 months until the next big patch comes out.  Patch is released, rinse-repeat.  

The trick to these "lost WoW subs" posts is to tally the subs during the down times, not the up times.  It's during the down times that you really get a sense for who really is playing the game.

It's refreshing to log into a game to see all the servers either FULL or HEAVY.  MoP won't fill all their servers... they have too many servers as it is.  LFR and LFD are just means to hide the fact that the majority of their servers are low pop servers.

  Z3R01

Novice Member

Joined: 9/09/08
Posts: 2464

MMO gamer since 1997

8/27/12 9:58:41 AM#50

I think both games are different enough that you could play both. 

 

Playing:

Waiting on:

  Four0Six

Novice Member

Joined: 12/18/11
Posts: 1199

8/27/12 10:00:16 AM#51

Why would a subscription game loose subs, to a non-sub game?

If it does loose subs, it was going to loose them any ways.

  Mors-Subita

Advanced Member

Joined: 7/04/04
Posts: 489

8/27/12 10:03:40 AM#52
Originally posted by Calerxes
Not many as GW2 isn't a long term investment game mnay players will finish the content and move on quite quickly.

I think you severely underestimate the amount of content in this game... I have probably put in 300 hours between the BWEs and the early start and I haven't even seen all there is to see from the 1-15 areas... And you can stay in the as long as you want and the xp rewards and gear drops stay relevant... And even when you hit "max level" you can keep leveling up for additional skill points you can spend on epics and shinies...

 

It COULD take all of them... will it? probably not... I wouldn't be surprised to see half go, though.

  User Deleted
 
OP  8/27/12 11:18:37 AM#53
Originally posted by SuprGamerX

Zero.    Who ever thinks GW2 is the next big thing really doesn't know a damn thing about MMO business.   The ones that think GW2 will slowly kill WoW are the same clowns that said SWTOR would kill WoW , and I for one always said TOR was garbage.  And looking at it today , I wasn't to far off my mark , a few yards away from the trash can.

Anyways , have a nice mindless discussion.

I think the only mindless post is one that says zero because even something as niche a game as the secret world would  take a small number of gamers away from WoW . I mentioned nothing about GW2 killing WoW in my OP and never for one minuite gave any indication that I thought it could possibly kill WoW . Nor am I anti WoW I like to play it when I'm away from home .

  User Deleted
 
OP  8/27/12 11:29:53 AM#54
Originally posted by Four0Six

Why would a subscription game loose subs, to a non-sub game?

If it does loose subs, it was going to loose them any ways.

That seems a bit of a flawed arguement . If people find themselves spending more time in a game they are playing for free every month and less time in one they are subscribing to they may simply see it not worth paying 15 dollars a month to the subscription based game .  Of course some people will play both but to generalise that no one will give up WoW or Rift or TSW or TOR beause they believe they have to pay that 15 dollars a month is a rather limited way of viewing things . Also if you think people leaving would leave anyway thats also shows a complete lack of understanding about how market forces work .

  Sukiyaki

Hard Core Member

Joined: 8/14/09
Posts: 1447

8/27/12 12:06:44 PM#55

Hopefully none.  The few exceptions cant make up for this outstanding and exceptional horrible playerbase (cant call that community).

Most will leave anyway when they realize GW2 is an MMORPG and not the WoW 2/clone in green pastures they keept looking for hte past half decade and their almost endless cries and demands on the forums to turn this game into a WoW replica fails to gain friends within the community nor with the devs yet again.

  FrodoFragins

Elite Member

Joined: 4/29/10
Posts: 2956

8/27/12 12:08:55 PM#56

500K

 

The problem is that no matter how many subs WOW loses in the next year, it's impossible to quantify how many left for GW2.

  Ponico

Novice Member

Joined: 2/01/06
Posts: 651

Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can?

- Sun Tsu

8/27/12 12:09:37 PM#57

So far Guild Wars 2 has been a blast and I've been enjoying everything about it but that's only after a few hours of play this past weekend. GW2 will attract a lot of people and the GW1 crowd are probably quite happy but will it grudge out WOW? 

Probably a little bit but if you've been in WOW since 2004 or so, I don't see people switching boat without second thoughts. 

 

GW2 is definately a breath of very fresh air! I feel that there's a definite evolution here but only time will prove who's right and wrong. One bad patch and the game dies... SWTOR is already on a slow death cycle. GW2 promised a huge amount of things and they delivered. That's a good sign.

 

SWTOR came out and nearly 50% of the promises (even written on the box) were missing from the game.

 

Wait a few weeks and then we might be able to see how GW2 is doing.

  Loke666

Elite Member

Joined: 10/29/07
Posts: 17738

8/27/12 12:12:04 PM#58
Originally posted by Calerxes
Not many as GW2 isn't a long term investment game mnay players will finish the content and move on quite quickly.

The WvWvW surely is. And I think people will jump in and out of GW2 as they feel.

But I think many of not most actually will keep subbing to Wow while playing some GW2 at the side, either for PvP or for some different kind of PvE than Wows.

You dont have to put in so much time in GW2s PvE so playing once in a while is good enough .

However I do know some people really tired of Wow and they will go. They might have anyways even without GW2 but now they have a reason.

  Axslav

Novice Member

Joined: 10/14/11
Posts: 14

8/27/12 1:40:51 PM#59
Originally posted by Calerxes
Not many as GW2 isn't a long term investment game mnay players will finish the content and move on quite quickly.

Took the words right outta ma mouth. There is only so much you can get from a B2P game. P2P is the way to go.

  Badaboom

Apprentice Member

Joined: 10/04/10
Posts: 2401

8/27/12 1:47:17 PM#60
Originally posted by Axslav
Originally posted by Calerxes
Not many as GW2 isn't a long term investment game mnay players will finish the content and move on quite quickly.

Took the words right outta ma mouth. There is only so much you can get from a B2P game. P2P is the way to go.

I was going to say the opposite.  There is nothing that gw2 doesn't have compared to wow and nothing, besides raiding, that wow does better.  Wow will lose a lot of subs. Why pay subs when you can play free?  

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