A good estimate about the copies sold through the official site by August 17th:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/yeacs/to_anyone_who_has_ordered_from_gw2com_in_the_last/

By the end of the first year... eh, who knows. Perhaps around 4.5 millions.

2 million within the first month including pre-order.

End of the first year, less than 100,000 subscribers.

:-)

Originally posted by Wickedjelly

First month? 3 million

Twelve months? 5.5 million

Yep, something along those lines.

1st month 2-3 million

1st year 4-7 Million

Originally posted by gieger808

We'll see big box number sales, but low average population. Bad game? No.

No sub fee, so most will use it as a second game. Once the shine wears off.

It's fun and actiony, but not the kind of mmorpg you would call home. It can be played off and on due to the lack of gear progression. You can't get "behind" like in other mmorpgs.

It's a good thing. It's fun and doesn't require any real commitment.

There is a big flaw in this kind of thinking. If what you say was true people wouldn't leave Rift, SWTOR and all those other mmos with big progression.

1st month: 1.5-2 mil.

1st year.. maybe 3kk-4kk?

Originally posted by bcbully
1.7 mill at launch.  Swtor was 2.4 and is still more well known.

Huh? I thought 1.7mil was the confirmed number after 1 month for TOR? Did I miss another press release?

Originally posted by Amjoco

I would like to believe your guesstimates, but that is way to high. 

I would say 2.5 and 4.0 million

I can believe that, yes. OPs guesses just dont seems realistic.

My guess for total sales is twice that of GW1: 7 million accounts about 16 million boxes with expansions and campaigns but that is for the entire games lifetime.

The game is a lot more hyped and have a whole lot of better budget than the first game so tice the number of boxes sold does not seems too far off.

Originally posted by Naqaj

Originally posted by bcbully
1.7 mill at launch.  Swtor was 2.4 and is still more well known.

Huh? I thought 1.7mil was the confirmed number after 1 month for TOR? Did I miss another press release?

They say 2.4 boxes were sold in that first month.

Kind of hard to predict sales but I will bite hope someone revives this thread when the year is up.

First month 2 to 3 mill copies

First year I would say 6-7+ depends on how well launch does and how many keep playing how many migrate from other MMO's and how well ArenaNet ban gold farmers if they actively ban people then sales will go up.

Originally posted by Mykai

I'd like to hear other people's estimates for GW2 sales in the 1st month and 1st year.  Here is my guess:

 

1st Month:  5 Million Copies (includes pre-purchases)

1st Year:  15 Million Copies

 

These might seem a little overly optimistic, but I'm betting that word of mouth will play a big role shortly after release.  Either way, I think it's fun to discuss.

Good gawd have mercy bro!

If it sold that many in the first month nobody would be able to log in!

Im going to go conservative and say 2 to 3 million the first month and 7 million and growing fast by a year..

Originally posted by gieger808

 

No sub fee, so most will use it as a second game. Once the shine wears off.

Someone still thinks this way? That the sub model is which determines if someone plays a game primarily or not? Any gamer will play the game they find most fun, I personally dont care about sub fee or no sub fee, I play what is good.

To me no sub fee, and no gear grind, are both things that will actually make this game more primary game than any other mmorpg I've played to date, not the other way around. One of the biggest problems in WoW to me was that I didnt have enough spare time or will to grind gear on all fronts to stay competitive, and that's when the game becomes just a chatroom with friends. Also, sub fee prevents me from checking back on games after updates etc, since I definately wont pay 15€ everytime I just want to check in, that's not a problem in sub-less games.

If Guild Wars 2 sold 2 million copies by the end of the year, and even half those players remained active, I think that represents a huge success. 1 million active players after the first year is pretty huge considering the competition.

It's not like this is a huge franchise.I believe GW1 sold around 7 million copies across it's whole life span, including x-packs which were counted as full games.

I support Anet, and love what I've played of this game, but come on now. 15 million?

Originally posted by Dracill
Im lost... There are people here saying that if Gw2 sell as many copies as tortanic is a succes?

Im calling it, 12 million copies in six months or is a failure like Swtor, terra, tsw, and all other mmo since wow.

WoW sold less than 1 million copies in six months, 500k tops I believe. I'm afraid WoW is a failure since it didnt sell no where near 12 mil in six months, lol.