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Guild Wars 2

Guild Wars 2 

General Discussion  » GW2 Sales Estimates - 1st Month / 1st Year

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110 posts found
  fiontar

Novice Member

Joined: 4/07/04
Posts: 3713

8/22/12 10:43:23 PM#41
Originally posted by Dracill
Im lost... There are people here saying that if Gw2 sell as many copies as tortanic is a succes?

Im calling it, 12 million copies in six months or is a failure like Swtor, terra, tsw, and all other mmo since wow.

There is a certain ceiling for intial MMO sales. GW2 has many things going for it to raise that ceiling, but so did TOR. The difference here is that GW2 will, IMO, have the best retention rates since WoW and will also be one of those very rare MMOs that grows it's sales and active populations over time.

I think GW2 will easily take it's first month sales and double them over the following eleven months. If the rate and quality of expansions is there, then it will be a game that will continue to grow sales for years to come.

Unlike TOR and many others, this game will not be a "flash in the pan".

Want to know more about GW2 and why there is so much buzz? Start here: Guild Wars 2 Mass Info for the Uninitiated

  User Deleted
8/22/12 10:44:41 PM#42

This is going by sales i know that GW2 already has 

1 month anything between 1.5 -3 million

as for 12 months its a more difficult question so many things could go right or wrong . 

if it goes wrong 3 -4 million 

if it goes right 4 to 8 million . 

truth is I really dont know . I have a feeling this is the game that will take over from WoW as the next mmo that will catch the public mood . Thats partly because WoWs lost its mojo and even fans like myself see it as a pale reflection of what it once was . 

Best mmo in 8 years but I do think I prefered WoW vanilla to GW2 but its the first mmo since thats given me "that feeling" 

  Aerowyn

Novice Member

Joined: 2/20/12
Posts: 7969

8/22/12 10:44:54 PM#43
Originally posted by Vorch

Conservative Estimates:

 

1.5-2 mil first month

4-5 mil first year

 

FYI, saw this thread on GW2G

my guess as well

I angered the clerk in a clothing shop today. She asked me what size I was and I said actual, because I am not to scale. I like vending machines 'cause snacks are better when they fall. If I buy a candy bar at a store, oftentimes, I will drop it... so that it achieves its maximum flavor potential. --Mitch Hedberg

  yaoming36

Novice Member

Joined: 6/28/12
Posts: 190

8/22/12 10:47:55 PM#44

500,000 copies. 

 

 

  gaeanprayer

Novice Member

Joined: 8/06/08
Posts: 2360

8/22/12 10:51:00 PM#45

"Forums aren't for intelligent discussion; they're for blow-hards with unwavering opinions."

  Roybe

Novice Member

Joined: 7/02/10
Posts: 424

8/22/12 10:54:53 PM#46
Originally posted by Mykai
Originally posted by William12
rofl is this a troll post ?  Ill be SHOCKED if GW2 even has 1m preorders right now let alone that many after 30 days.   I fully expect it to sell 3-4m in the first year though.  You guys need to adjust your expectations the game will not sustain the playerbase over time but thats ok because its b2p.

 

Prepare to be shocked:  http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/tech/2012/07/134_115061.html

 

1 million pre-orders as of July 13th.  Since then it's been a best seller on Amazon.

Analysts never seem to get the story correct.  It  isn't that "NCsoft has enjoyed increased brand value in the United States...."  Arenanet has convinced the market that they are better than NCSoft.  If the NCSoft's ideas of 'commercialization' includes a deepening of the attachment between the game and the gem store (for instance), I can assure you that many of those that have purchased the first part of the game won't add to their purchase  in the future.

Hopefully, NCSoft doesn't read it's own press, and/or believe in it.  NCSoft has a bad rep in the states, and the only reason that this game has the backing in the community is BECAUSE of Arenanet AND NCSoft's willingness to let these developers make the game the way they wanted.

I'm not bringing the gem store into this lightly, the addition of a Producer of Monetization (at or around the time of Arenanet's change in Gem Store policies) is a concerning issue.  My fear is that this person is a NCSoft employee, FIRST, forcing NCSoft policies upon the game in detriment to Arenanet's wishes.  (What will be interesting to watch is the other producers of the game, and how many will stay around if this starts to occur) This concern has not prevented me from buying the game, but has caused me, as I am sure many others, to keep a watchful eye on the comings and goings within the gem store.

 

On topic 2.5 million on release day....other amounts depending on the future involvement of NCSoft in the handling of the game and its handling of Arenanet.

 

  ozmono

Novice Member

Joined: 3/12/06
Posts: 1045

8/22/12 10:59:48 PM#47
I don't expect it to do any better than Swtor at first although I think it will continue to grow steadily afterwards. That said I do also expect a drop in active players after launch and than I expect it to grow  steadily. So SWTOR did about 1.5 mil right? so I would say about 1-1.5 and I'd expect it to sell about double that in the first year to raise the total box sales to about 2-3 mil.
  fascism

Advanced Member

Joined: 4/05/12
Posts: 370

8/22/12 11:03:12 PM#48

1.75 million 1 month

2.5 million end of year

  Mykai

Novice Member

Joined: 3/07/12
Posts: 13

 
OP  8/22/12 11:27:32 PM#49
Originally posted by fascism

1.75 million 1 month

2.5 million end of year

I must say, the general consensus is lower than I thought it'd be.  I guess that's a good thing though...means that more people will be pleasantly surprised ;-)

  xalvi

Novice Member

Joined: 12/17/10
Posts: 343

8/22/12 11:29:45 PM#50

1st month -  3million

1st year - 6-7million....If you mean the first year until august 2013 that is and not the end of this year.

Pretty reasonable estimate, imo.

  latinkuro

Novice Member

Joined: 8/04/11
Posts: 122

I do not know, is the beginning of knowledge, wisdom and understanding.

8/22/12 11:57:50 PM#51
Originally posted by gaeanprayer

Pretty good already, evidently:

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151081195219209&set=a.135044094208.103264.114036714208&type=1&relevant_count=1&ref=nf

I'd say they already have around 2 million+ sales consisting of pre-purchasers and pre-orders.

1st month, I'd put it @ 2.5 to 3 million

1 year, 4 to 5 million

after that I see them gaining more and more every year and all other mmo's losing subs and people while GW2 numbers keep rising. Many shitty f2p and p2p games closing down and going bankrupt, while only the good ones prevail, albeit with lesser numbers due to GW2.

  otinanai123

Novice Member

Joined: 7/18/10
Posts: 272

8/23/12 4:52:27 AM#52

1st month = ~2 mil.

after 12 months = ~3 mil.

  Wickedjelly

Novice Member

Joined: 4/19/09
Posts: 5064

The Dude abides

8/23/12 4:56:29 AM#53

First month? 3 million

Twelve months? 5.5 million

1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.

2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.

3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.

  Svarcanum

Advanced Member

Joined: 1/29/06
Posts: 348

8/23/12 5:00:02 AM#54
Don't compare it to mop numbers for info. My whole guild is going to play mop, but none of us (as of yesterday) has bought it yet. MoP numbers will rise substantially as we get closer to its launch.
  Svarcanum

Advanced Member

Joined: 1/29/06
Posts: 348

8/23/12 5:01:58 AM#55
Gw2 numbers:
1st month 2.5m
1st year 3.5m
  korent1991

Apprentice Member

Joined: 5/01/09
Posts: 1405

8/23/12 5:05:35 AM#56

 

1st day - over 1.45 million

1st month - over 2 million

1st year - over 4-6 million :)

"Happiness is not a destination. It is a method of life."
-------------------------------

  Mothanos

Hard Core Member

Joined: 10/20/10
Posts: 1885

8/23/12 5:12:02 AM#57

Hmm it can go a few ways.

1st scenerio , 1 million prepurchases already - lots of WoW players and other mmo playres buy it on release day and GW2 may hit 2 or 3 million mark within a few days.
4.5 million players before 2013

2nd scenerio 1 million prepurchases already maybe 1 million other players buy it on release day and we hit 2 million.
3 million players before 2013

3trd scenerio 1 million player at launch and a few hunred thousand players join from now till christmass.
2 million players before 2013


I tend to bet on Scenerio 1 or 2 or something in between those.


But i woulnt amaze me if they sell 6 million copy's before the end of 2012.
Alot of mmo players are aiming a switch from other mmo's.

If WoW's playerbase (many of witch are going to try GW2) they can realy end up with retarded box sales.


  User Deleted
8/23/12 5:25:54 AM#58
Originally posted by Mykai

I'd like to hear other people's estimates for GW2 sales in the 1st month and 1st year.  Here is my guess:

 

1st Month:  5 Million Copies (includes pre-purchases)

1st Year:  15 Million Copies

 

These might seem a little overly optimistic, but I'm betting that word of mouth will play a big role shortly after release.  Either way, I think it's fun to discuss.

VERY optimistic.

 

I see 1.3 million box sales the first month and 3 million by the end of the year.  From there I can only guess but I would wager it plateauing off around 4-6 million sales over the course of the life of the game.

 

Where do I get my numbers?  Well the 1 million is already known and it isnt unreasonable to think that word of mouth will get them another 300k that first month.  The 3 million comes from several industry insiders, most notably an Asian company, and not to sound too racist but if theres one things those Asians know, its numbers. 

 

Disclaimer: the last sentence was all in jest and good fun and not to be taken as me being insensitive.

  Caliburn101

Novice Member

Joined: 3/30/11
Posts: 647

"Imagination is more important than knowledge." Albert Einstein

8/23/12 5:27:58 AM#59

Always a bad idea trying to predict things, but it's a bit o fun so....

The NCSoft guys said expected 3.1 million around launch - I don't have any reason to disagree with him - he knows more about it than I do after all.

So let's say 3 million in the first 3-month shakedown period.

After that with the one caveat that players regard the game as having longevity I would predict a fast rise in numbers as Guild migrations kick in from other MMO's.

So let's say 6 million by Q3 2013.

After that - I would expect numbers to go up steadily if the game is well supported and expansions come out at a decent pace.

I would say the game will cap at ~8 million based on this. Purely speculating I would say it may rise above this, but it depends so very much of the games staying power, and this is not known.

If you think these numbers are too high - look no further than the global financial crash and the lack of money in people's pockets before judging that monthly sub-games will be preferred in the numbers they are now. I think the ANet financial model is as well-positioned as their design philosophy (albeit in this case accidentally) and it will increase their success.

Additionally - and this cannot be stressed enough - the gaming population is getting older on average and has increasing levels of intolerance to time-sink game design. This makes GW2 golden in their eyes.

Just my two pennies on the subject....

  wartyxwt

Novice Member

Joined: 4/17/10
Posts: 181

8/23/12 5:31:05 AM#60

I'd be surprised if the total sales/preorders to date is less than 1 million but for all we know it could be pushing 2 million by now. It's not authoritative but to be in the amazon position they are and have been in for a couple to three months, and tellingly above MOP..

Yeah MOP is a month away but GW2 went on sale months ago and instantly took top positions on multiple stores worldwide.

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