I asked this in another thread about a particular game, but I think it applies to many games.

Specifically, what is the obsession with getting an actual sub number, when it's impossible to get an actual sub number? There are a couple primary methods used.

• Count The Servers - this involves assuming a certain number of players per server, with no actual knowledge of how many players are on the servers. All of the systems or methods used to calculate players are systems provided by the developer, and none of them are confirmed to work in any particular way.
• Use XFire Numbers (1) - Calculate sub numbers based on the number of XFire players or played hours at any given time, with an assumed ratio between the number of XFire players or player hours and the number of subscribers.
• Use XFire Numbers (2) - Use another game's sub numbers with another game's number of XFire players or played hours at any given time, then assume a ratio or relation between that other game's numbers the target game's numbers. From there, calculate a subscription number.
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People just want to see the object of their hatred fail. Preferably in a pie chart form

That's where the obsession comes from

It's not impossible if the developers actually release sub number.

And if you are a public trading company, most likely you have to tell your stock holder.  And in that case it is no longer a secret.

Originally posted by Starpower

People just want to see the object of their hatred fail. Preferably in a pie chart form

That's where the obsession comes from

It's used just as often for bragging rights as for haters.

Simple, its enjoyable to literally watch tortanic sink before our eyes.

Originally posted by lizardbones

Is it really that important to have an actual subscription number?
 

All the world turns on numbers.

MMOs are long-term commitment for me, not just a day-to-day visit.  Business models do influence whether or not I play a game.  So the viability of a game and the stability of its business model *is* a factor in what I choose to play.

Aside from this, as an armchari observer of the industry, I am deeply curious in what is and isn't viable and what models are going to be copied/avoided down the road.  To understand this, I need accurate numbers.

Whether my "team" is currently winning or losing the publisher-vs-publisher battle is far down my list of interests.

It's like being a fan of a sports team.  If you like them, you want them to win.

Free 2 Play goofed this up a bit.  Rumors (facts?) were at one point that Maplestory was the #1 most played MMORPG in the world.  That sort of blows the whole, "I'm cool and my game is winning" mentality when it's actually getting stomped by something so "cute".

Originally posted by Xobdnas

Simple, its enjoyable to literally watch tortanic sink before our eyes.

Only to children who think "watching the world burn" is cool.  Not to human beings with souls.

Originally posted by lizardbones

I asked this in another thread about a particular game, but I think it applies to many games.

Specifically, what is the obsession with getting an actual sub number, when it's impossible to get an actual sub number? There are a couple primary methods used.
 

• Count The Servers - this involves assuming a certain number of players per server, with no actual knowledge of how many players are on the servers. All of the systems or methods used to calculate players are systems provided by the developer, and none of them are confirmed to work in any particular way.
• Use XFire Numbers (1) - Calculate sub numbers based on the number of XFire players or played hours at any given time, with an assumed ratio between the number of XFire players or player hours and the number of subscribers.
• Use XFire Numbers (2) - Use another game's sub numbers with another game's number of XFire players or played hours at any given time, then assume a ratio or relation between that other game's numbers the target game's numbers. From there, calculate a subscription number.
• null

I'm sure there are other methods, but these seem to be the most common. Regardless of the method used, there's always an assumption made and always guesswork done. There's little effort to see if the assumptions work at two points in time, much less over a range of times, and it seems like the assumptions are constantly changing.

When developers release their subscription numbers, this is used to confirm that the assumptions at that point in time are correct, and at the same time the subscription numbers are called into question.

So what gives? Is it really that important to have an actual subscription number? How can the numbers the developers release be correct enough to confirm speculation, but not believable? Why do people go the so many mathematical gymnastics just to make a guess?
 

Some people want affirmation that what are doing is popular or right. Some people feel the need to justify that what they are doing is popular or right. Others need to tear things down or, to a certain degree, prove to others the grapes were sour.

None of this has anything to do with the quality or enjoyment of the actual game, btw.

*Count server numbers - fail

*Use XFire numbers - less than 1/2 of all game subs use it - fail

Only reason would be they have an unhealthy obsession with perfection which they cant do anything about with those numbers, and it drives them crazy because its a problem they cant solve. so its a nerds 'i can come closer to nerdiness than you...' 'no you cant....' contest. just a weird inbred thing, step away n let them be.....

Originally posted by Psychow

Originally posted by Xobdnas

Simple, its enjoyable to literally watch tortanic sink before our eyes.

 

Only to children who think "watching the world burn" is cool.  Not to human beings with souls.

While enjoying seeing a MMO fall so hard like ToR did is a little much, I do hope that this will be a good thing for sandbox gamers.  If WoW and ToR were both massively successful, it would mean even more importance would be placed on continuing down that path for AAA developers. 

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Originally posted by Xobdnas
Simple, its enjoyable to literally watch tortanic sink before our eyes.

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Originally posted by maplestone

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Originally posted by lizardbones Is it really that important to have an actual subscription number?  

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All the world turns on numbers.

MMOs are long-term commitment for me, not just a day-to-day visit.  Business models do influence whether or not I play a game.  So the viability of a game and the stability of its business model *is* a factor in what I choose to play.

Aside from this, as an armchari observer of the industry, I am deeply curious in what is and isn't viable and what models are going to be copied/avoided down the road.  To understand this, I need accurate numbers.

Whether my "team" is currently winning or losing the publisher-vs-publisher battle is far down my list of interests.

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Originally posted by lizardbones

So how would you get those accurate numbers?

For the most part, I don't.  I just dream about having accurate numbers.

[quote]Originally posted by Loktofeit
[b][/quote]Some people want affirmation that what are doing is popular or right. Some people feel the need to justify that what they are doing is popular or right. Others need to tear things down or, to a certain degree, prove to others the grapes were sour.

None of this has anything to do with the quality or enjoyment of the actual game, btw.[/b][/quote]

It seems like there would be better ways to do this than guess at subscription numbers that can't be verified or consistently tracked without the developer's help. It is good to have a number saying you're right. It seems that way in a corporate environment anyway. If you could boil all reports down to a single number in the middle of the page, and that number was "100" for winning and "0" for losing and that was it, you'd have a perfect report.

It seems like an impossible task for most games to get an actual subscription number. Nobody is going to come up with numbers that are agreed upon as the correct number here.

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Originally posted by maplestone

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Originally posted by lizardbones So how would you get those accurate numbers?

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For the most part, I don't.  I just dream about having accurate numbers.

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Apologies for the multiple posts. I didn't want to try and craft some huge multi-post monster with quotes from different people. It's hard enough getting this editor to not bork posts with one quote and some text formatting.

Originally posted by Kraylor

Originally posted by Psychow

Originally posted by Xobdnas

Simple, its enjoyable to literally watch tortanic sink before our eyes.

 

Only to children who think "watching the world burn" is cool.  Not to human beings with souls.

 

While enjoying seeing a MMO fall so hard like ToR did is a little much, I do hope that this will be a good thing for sandbox gamers.  If WoW and ToR were both massively successful, it would mean even more importance would be placed on continuing down that path for AAA developers. 

Perhaps. But I'm not a believer in the "hey guys, lets go with Plan B: Sanbox this time" I'm more inclined to believe the big players will instead say Risk > Potential Reward and leave the market and we will be stuck with crap games with no funding. Maybe that's what some people want, but not me.

I'd prefer the entire genre thrive and grow and Sandbox games be created in order to compete instead of replace Themeparks.