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The Pub at MMORPG.COM  » MMO bubble soon to pop?

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21 posts found
  Mavek

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/01/10
Posts: 143

 
OP  8/11/12 3:25:17 PM#1

Disclaimer: This is entirely speculation based off of this website so if I am completely off base please don't attack me too hard (or maybe you should because I am, in fact, using this site as a source).

 

Has anyone else noticed the dwindling number of games listed at the top of this site.  575 is where the total currently sits.  I seem to remember during E3's future gaming converence Bill Murphy made the comment that "mmorpg.com had over 600 games listed on the site" (paraphrased) and I, personally, do remember seeing it peak at around 610 or so.  But that also leads me to remember when about a year or so ago (maybe longer actually) the site had only around 400 listed games.  As anyone who frequents this, or any video gaming site in general, would know mmo's have become a dime a dozen in recent years.

 

Now I have no idea why games may have been removed from this site.  It could have been due to them shutting down, or maybe it was something that was deemed to not be in the MMORPG genre and was simply removed from the site.  Either case it seems that 30-40 games is a pretty steep drop off.  Maybe a moderator or someone could chime in as to the reasoning.

 

So this leads me to ask Is the recent drop off attributed to an inflated market of mmo's that is becoming unsustainable or is it just part of the average business cycle (some games win and others lose)?

 

 

  fascism

Advanced Member

Joined: 4/05/12
Posts: 370

8/11/12 3:34:07 PM#2
  Aethaeryn

Advanced Member

Joined: 2/14/10
Posts: 1926

8/11/12 3:36:28 PM#3

I think it is like when televisions first came out. . only a few had them and they were super cool and expensive (think AOL's NWN at $6 an hour)

Next they became popular and cheaper (UO, DAoC etc.) $15 a month. . not a lot of models to chose from soon many people had them and they were more common.

Next the colour television was an "inovation" that stuck around (think EQ/Wow elements)

Flat panel was cool but took awhile to catch on. . at this point everyone has one.  I have a 42 inch TV and do not feel like it needs to be replaced until it breaks.

New things are tried and hyped but don't do as well as you people thought (SWTOR, RIFT etc.)  think 3D TVs here.

 

The problem is that it is not new anymore.  It is too late to jump in on the ground level and be as successful as the pioneers.  The more people try and fall short the more enthusiasm is lost by the playerbase.

SWTOR and TSW where the first MMOs in a long time that I didn't buy right away.   The market is saturated and no one is offering enough new features to make me as interested as when they first came out.  There is a flood of games that we are not even going to hear about.  There are threads here where someone says <GAME> is the best MMO ever and I have not even heard of it.

It is time for the chaffe to fall off (which is what you are talking about).  The number of MMOs available or being played does not equal the desire of people to play them. . it was too high.  The same thing is already happening to the mobile marketplace but only much faster if you look at tablets.  How long are people going to buy a new one every year when they don't offer much more than the last time. . what can they offer that is that different.  A better camera on a tablet is like RIFTS offering better graphics than WoW. . it isn't going to be enough at some point.

TLDR

I got totally off track there.  My point was that it should not be unexpected and going forward I would expect less games but hopefully more true inovation to keep the market interested or it will fall off.

Wa min God! Se æx on min heafod is!

  jmcdermottuk

Advanced Member

Joined: 6/10/06
Posts: 919

8/11/12 3:36:30 PM#4

I don't think the bubble's about to pop. The fact is that there's a finite number of MMO players and the market can only support so many games and the inferior ones will close down.

TBH, and this is just my opinion and many will no doubt disagree, the number should be much smaller than it is currently. There are far too many games listed here that are not MMO's. DayZ is not an MMO. D3 is not an MMO. Any lobby based game in fact, is not an MMO and they should be removed.

  ZombieKen

Apprentice Member

Joined: 3/30/10
Posts: 4410

Zombie - Dead but still moving.

8/11/12 3:39:08 PM#5

One example is a game called Zentia.  No clear reason given, just "tough decision we're shutting it down".  So one is left assuming that the issue was finances.

 

Also a couple startups closed down without making it to release.  A few didn't even make it to closed beta before keeling over.

 

I don't see it as the genre entering a crash-n-burn scenerio.  More like the competition is stiff, the economy in some parts of the world is not so good, and other genres (MOBA for example) are picking up where the MMO hype left off.

 

One axiom I like from investing is that infinite growth is not indefinitely sustainable.  Right now, MMORPG development and operation is a risky investment.  Investors don't like risk, especially when the potential for return isn't very high.

 

Pop?  Not severely, but a contraction / correction seems likely or has already started.  (in my opinion)

MSOTSG with PPE : Massively Single-player Online Task-driven Storyline Game with Purchasable Performance Enhancements *grin*

  maplestone

Novice Member

Joined: 12/10/08
Posts: 3109

8/11/12 3:54:25 PM#6
I'm going to go with "normal business cycle" because although I think there was some irrational exhuberence about how many WoW-sized games could be supported, I think investors have already corrected their expectations.  Because of the time it takes to develop these games, we players are really seeing a multi-year delayed reaction to what investors were thinking when they opened their wallets.
  Mavek

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/01/10
Posts: 143

 
OP  8/11/12 3:58:52 PM#7
Originally posted by XAPGames

One example is a game called Zentia.  No clear reason given, just "tough decision we're shutting it down".  So one is left assuming that the issue was finances.

 

Also a couple startups closed down without making it to release.  A few didn't even make it to closed beta before keeling over.

 

I don't see it as the genre entering a crash-n-burn scenerio.  More like the competition is stiff, the economy in some parts of the world is not so good, and other genres (MOBA for example) are picking up where the MMO hype left off.

 

One axiom I like from investing is that infinite growth is not indefinitely sustainable.  Right now, MMORPG development and operation is a risky investment.  Investors don't like risk, especially when the potential for return isn't very high.

 

Pop?  Not severely, but a contraction / correction seems likely or has already started.  (in my opinion)

Yeah this is pretty much how I felt when thinking about it.  As well as the thought that there are only so many peple playing mmo's that the market will have to contract.  I'm not expecting there to be a time when 90% of the games on the market all suddenly vanish but it seems theres going to be a restructuring period as new games release.  Gamers interests and desires will be what determines what games thrive and what games die so I guess it is becoming a matter of changing tastes within the genre.

  Amana

MMORPG.COM Staff

Joined: 1/03/11
Posts: 2419

8/11/12 9:59:20 PM#8
We actually have someone updating and maintaining the list regularly now, so things are getting added and revised and sometimes removed (if an old listing hung around way longer than it should have). Though with that many games on the list, it does still take time. But it's getting updated way faster than it did before.

To give feedback on moderation, contact community@mmorpg.com

  Theocritus

Advanced Member

Joined: 7/15/08
Posts: 3627

8/12/12 12:32:29 AM#9
     IMO 575 MMOs is still ALOT.......In fact its too many and that is why the number has come down some......When I started in 2000, I think there were maybe 4 or 5 MMOs so the genre has come a long way in a short time.....If games like Runescape and Maple Story can make millions of dollars, then so can alot of other MMOs......These companies are going to have to let go of the p2p mindset and start building their games as f2p....If it is done well it has been proven to be a very good business model.
  Dahkot72

Apprentice Member

Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 274

8/12/12 12:40:55 AM#10

Personally I'm hoping that future devs/publishers will learn a lesson from TOR/TSW and go back to gameplay mattering the most , and get away from this story/voiceover trend mattering so much.

I didn't mind EQ2's NPC's having voices in the actual game , as that wasn't a cutscene break from the virtual world.

But this "HEY YALL < WE HAVE VOICES AND CUTSCENES < PAY US MONTHLY TO WATCH A STORY" crap in mmorpg's hopefully will come to an end.

So hopefully the "pop" will be realzing dropping millions on voice acting is a stupid way to spend your budget on an mmorpg , and we might get a return to virtual worlds.

  rissies

Apprentice Member

Joined: 8/23/11
Posts: 162

8/12/12 5:53:54 AM#11

Rather than a bubble, I see the mmo industry as a tree. With its roots in tabletop games, adventure games, muds, and the like, and coming together in a few, very strong titles that created the main direction of the genre, but eventually branching out into smaller, more flexible and sustainable games that go in various other directions. Some of those branches don't survive, either for natural reasons or due to intentional actions. Over time, new branches take their place.

Lots of games have closed. Many more are about to launch or are in developement. It's normal and healthy.

  ste2000

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/28/04
Posts: 4736

8/12/12 6:23:10 AM#12
Half of the games listed were either shut down, abandoned (by the devs) or outdated.

 

  Elikal

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 2/09/06
Posts: 8067

“No path is darker then when your eyes are shut.” -Flemeth

8/12/12 6:24:57 AM#13

I think there is a real probability for a MMO gaming bubble to burst somewhere in 2013.

In the last 5 years ever more MMO have been released, sometimes every 2nd months a high production cost MMO, and tons of cheap MMOs on top. A lot of them were either Asia grinder or variants of WoW clones. That can't be good. And so far almost all approaches for Triple AAA MMOs have been flops more or less. Games have even begun to close, more and more MMOs get faster and faster from P2P to F2P because they can't produce enough quality to keep players. And now even F2P cash shops are seeming in trouble.

Yes, I think it is a large probability we see a MMO game bubble burst in 2013.

A forum is a place where people can discuss about different opinions. So what I don't get is, how people react offended when they come to a forum and then find... well different opinions. If a different opinion offends you, what are you even doing here?

  Calerxes

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 2/06/09
Posts: 1660

8/12/12 6:34:16 AM#14
Its already burst WoW is no longer the big kahuna in online gaming thats social gaming and League Of Legends. Come on people get with it.

This doom and gloom thread was brought to you by Chin Up™ the new ultra high caffeine soft drink for gamers who just need that boost of happiness after a long forum session.

  Anthur

Hard Core Member

Joined: 3/05/10
Posts: 640

8/12/12 6:41:53 AM#15

Just the usual dynamics in a still quite new market.

First you have the inovators who have a completely new idea and start a new genre (UO, EQ etc). As others recognize that there is a new market where you can make money more and more companies join. A few with good quality products. Most are garbage. Later on the market stabilizes,the unexperienced/fast money companies become fewer and fewer and you only get a few companies which stay.

So, nothing special here.

  Bladestrom

Elite Member

Joined: 4/04/11
Posts: 3873

8/12/12 6:46:49 AM#16
The mmo bubble is not going to burst, but I think the raiding one will. If blizzard think only 10% of their customers are dedicated raiders and swtor and TSW raiding model is creaking with old age I just can't see another company investing in an aaa mmorg with raiding at its heart. 8 years if repeating bosses 40 times a week is a long time, things need to move on or slowly stagnate ( which we are seeing)

rpg/mmorg history: Dun Darach>Bloodwych>Bards Tale 1-3>Eye of the beholder > Might and Magic 2,3,5 > FFVII> Baldur's Gate 1, 2 > Planescape Torment >Morrowind > WOW (10000 hrs on main mage)> oblivion > LOTR (600 runemaster/Hunter) > Rift (230 hours mage) > Guild Wars (1900hrs elementalist) Vanguard. > GW2(1000 elementalist), Wildstar

Now playing GW2, AOW 3, ESO, LOTR

  Knightblast

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/01/05
Posts: 1800

8/12/12 8:32:02 AM#17
Originally posted by Calerxes
Its already burst WoW is no longer the big kahuna in online gaming thats social gaming and League Of Legends. Come on people get with it.

I agree.  The buzz has moved to MOBAs now, which is also a very strong driving force behind the seemingly inexorable shift away from P2P towards F2P.

  Loktofeit

Hard Core Member

Joined: 1/13/10
Posts: 12406

Currently playing EVE, SMITE, ArcheAge, and Combat Arms

8/12/12 9:02:44 AM#18
Originally posted by Mavek

Disclaimer: This is entirely speculation based off of this website so if I am completely off base please don't attack me too hard (or maybe you should because I am, in fact, using this site as a source).

Has anyone else noticed the dwindling number of games listed at the top of this site.  575 is where the total currently sits.  I seem to remember during E3's future gaming converence Bill Murphy made the comment that "mmorpg.com had over 600 games listed on the site" (paraphrased) and I, personally, do remember seeing it peak at around 610 or so.  But that also leads me to remember when about a year or so ago (maybe longer actually) the site had only around 400 listed games.  As anyone who frequents this, or any video gaming site in general, would know mmo's have become a dime a dozen in recent years.

Now I have no idea why games may have been removed from this site.  It could have been due to them shutting down, or maybe it was something that was deemed to not be in the MMORPG genre and was simply removed from the site.  Either case it seems that 30-40 games is a pretty steep drop off.  Maybe a moderator or someone could chime in as to the reasoning.

So this leads me to ask Is the recent drop off attributed to an inflated market of mmo's that is becoming unsustainable or is it just part of the average business cycle (some games win and others lose)?

They just got rid of the dead entries (example: Fasaria World, Knights of Dream City)  and games no one was following like some of the RC and TGEA based "MMOs" that rarely developed beyong graphical changes in the default zone the kit came with.

"And wikipedia is as accurate as Britannica. Wikipedia is very reliable. You would be hard pressed to find a more reliable source for these kinds of things." -fivoroth

  DaezAster

Novice Member

Joined: 6/18/12
Posts: 801

8/12/12 9:15:50 AM#19
I don't think it's a mmo thing. Most markest are over saturated now a days. 
  fenistil

Novice Member

Joined: 9/22/11
Posts: 3016

8/12/12 11:06:07 AM#20

mmorpg market is oversaturated for years and it is getting worse.

 

There is simply too much games and to add to it most 'bigger' titles are offering very similar gameplay.

+ mmorpg market is losing part of it playerbase to other online genres like CORPG's, h&s, mmofps, mmorts, social games and MOBAs and even single player games.   I don't see it changing. Mmorpg's peaked already.

+ economy is in bad shape in many countries and that has an effect entertaiment spenditure.

 

Too much games, dwindling playerbase in west and risk-averse and lack of creativity.

 

Eventual 'crash' or bigger 'correction' actually might be good in long-term perspective if it happens.

At least from my point of view. 

I feel sorry for eventual lay-offs though.

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