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The Pub at MMORPG.COM  » It's hardly the end of the subscription model.

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68 posts found
  VengeSunsoar

Hard Core Member

Joined: 3/10/04
Posts: 4784

Be Brief, Be Bright... Be Gone.

8/03/12 12:36:43 AM#41
Originally posted by Humphrie
Originally posted by alexanys1982

heres the future, please bookmark my post.

 

59.99 box price

Full cash shop

F2P conversion of said box price after 8months-1 year.

More added to cash shop

Life support.

 

Amount spent on game? maybe 20-50mil

Amount earned after full cycle completes and coders have been fired, 100mill +.

The egg on your faces? priceless

I'll bookmark this just to throw it back in your face when Titan smashes sales record utilizing the tried-and-true model.

 I'm sure it will smash sales records.  However I'm equally sure it wouls smash records no matter what payment model they used, f2p or p2p.

I see the majority of MMO's doing exactly what Alex states, and I'm equally sure that the majority of MMO's will actually plan for that and have a conversion tucked away in their pocket ready to go.

Quit worrying about other players in a game and just play.

  Humphrie

Novice Member

Joined: 7/10/08
Posts: 127

 
OP  8/03/12 1:01:58 AM#42
Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
Originally posted by Humphrie
Originally posted by alexanys1982

heres the future, please bookmark my post.

 

59.99 box price

Full cash shop

F2P conversion of said box price after 8months-1 year.

More added to cash shop

Life support.

 

Amount spent on game? maybe 20-50mil

Amount earned after full cycle completes and coders have been fired, 100mill +.

The egg on your faces? priceless

I'll bookmark this just to throw it back in your face when Titan smashes sales record utilizing the tried-and-true model.

 I'm sure it will smash sales records.  However I'm equally sure it wouls smash records no matter what payment model they used, f2p or p2p.

I see the majority of MMO's doing exactly what Alex states, and I'm equally sure that the majority of MMO's will actually plan for that and have a conversion tucked away in their pocket ready to go.

That's not evidence of anything, though. I'm certain the U.S. has plans to invade (or head off an invasion from) Canada or the United Kingdom. It doesn't mean it would ever in a million years happen, but if you're smart, you plan for every eventuality.

 

And, in the case of MMOs, when nearly all games will eventually die due to old age/technology marching onwards, it's important to plan for the 'endgame.' That doesn't mean it's what they're aiming for -- it means that they've got a contingency 'just in case' they can't cut it as a P2P game.

 

Again, F2P is where MMOs go to die. It's like the retirement home in Boca Raton, FL. Yeah, you might go visit granny and granpa there every year or two... but make no mistake why they're there: it's to die.

  VengeSunsoar

Hard Core Member

Joined: 3/10/04
Posts: 4784

Be Brief, Be Bright... Be Gone.

8/03/12 1:05:01 AM#43
Originally posted by Humphrie
Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
Originally posted by Humphrie
Originally posted by alexanys1982

heres the future, please bookmark my post.

 

59.99 box price

Full cash shop

F2P conversion of said box price after 8months-1 year.

More added to cash shop

Life support.

 

Amount spent on game? maybe 20-50mil

Amount earned after full cycle completes and coders have been fired, 100mill +.

The egg on your faces? priceless

I'll bookmark this just to throw it back in your face when Titan smashes sales record utilizing the tried-and-true model.

 I'm sure it will smash sales records.  However I'm equally sure it wouls smash records no matter what payment model they used, f2p or p2p.

I see the majority of MMO's doing exactly what Alex states, and I'm equally sure that the majority of MMO's will actually plan for that and have a conversion tucked away in their pocket ready to go.

That's not evidence of anything, though. I'm certain the U.S. has plans to invade (or head off an invasion from) Canada or the United Kingdom. It doesn't mean it would ever in a million years happen, but if you're smart, you plan for every eventuality.

 

And, in the case of MMOs, when nearly all games will eventually die due to old age/technology marching onwards, it's important to plan for the 'endgame.' That doesn't mean it's what they're aiming for -- it means that they've got a contingency 'just in case' they can't cut it as a P2P game.

 

Again, F2P is where MMOs go to die. It's like the retirement home in Boca Raton, FL. Yeah, you might go visit granny and granpa there every year or two... but make no mistake why they're there: it's to die.

 Good thing I didn't say it was evidence of anything.  In fact I'm pretty sure I said, "I"m sure, I"m pretty sure," and "I see"  clearly expressing my opinion.

You also haven't  given evidence of anything.  You presented your opinion.

No F2p is not where MMO's go to die, and several with stable populations and making a profit have gone f2p. 

Quit worrying about other players in a game and just play.

  ste2000

Advanced Member

Joined: 2/28/04
Posts: 4733

8/03/12 10:03:37 AM#44
Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
Originally posted by ste2000

WOW shows that Subscription model is where the money is.

No.  This may show that subs model brings in more than f2p when the number of subscribers goes beyond a certain point.

F2P is just a lifeboat for a dieing MMOs.

No.  See above post.

EVE has now 500K subscribers and they are not thinking of going F2P, because those 500K subscribers a month means 5 Million dollars per month or 60 Million Dollars a year of revenues

Eve doesn't have 500k but it is doing very well.  It actually has a method of f2p in there (pay for sub with plex).  http://www.ccpgames.com/en/public-relations/press-releases/article/9086/ccp-names-tiancity-exclusive-eve-online-publisher-for

No Western F2P MMO can make a similar amount of money, not even close.

Sources please.  I don't have any clue at all, not even a glimmer as to how much money EQ2, EQ, CoH, Lotro... is making with their f2p model.  So if you have numbers please share them.

Also eve is played on a world market, 200 countries.  If you are going to compare Eve's world numbers, then you cannot just look at western MMO subs, you need to compare world subs.  Compare like to like.

 

You don't follow much the MMO industry.

EQ2 had 200K at its peak 4 years ago, since then its population declined drammatically, same for LOTRO, DDO ( which was technically dead), AoC and so on.

Every "Western" MMO that went F2P had less than 100K players when they switched to RMT transaction.

But you do not need to trust me saying that only "dead" MMO goes F2P in the western market (I am not talking about the Asians which are built on F2P model and they are successful indeed)

Look at Funcom.

AoC is F2P, so they have the technology, yet TSW is subscription based (for now, though I predict it will go F2P in 6 months time...................because it will lose subs)

If Funcom thought the F2P model was the winning formula they would have launched TSW as a F2P, but they didn't, because the Subscription model is still the more profitable if you can have a steady player base at least between 300K and 500K subs.

Problem with Western MMOs is that the majority of them, don't have more than 200K subs after few months from their release because they are so shallow that player simply refuses to pay a monthly fee for a WoW clone or even worse for an Online Game (Single Player game with MMO features)

F2P games could be very profitable, if they were built on the Pay To Win model like all the Asian MMOs.

But Western MMOs goes F2P because they aren't good enough and they fail to have a decent subscription base.

This is sad but it's the truth.

  dave6660

Hard Core Member

Joined: 9/26/08
Posts: 2340

"Next time I see you, remind me not to talk to you."

8/03/12 10:26:28 AM#45
Originally posted by eyelolled

Here is the most basic truth of it.

There are high quality F2P games out there.

F2P is a viable revenue model.

The most anticipated game on the horizon is B2P.

B2P is a viable revenue model.

There are people that will realize they can play an enjoyable game without paying a subscription.

There are people that will feel a subscription is the best model, and continue to pay to play.

 

Here is the assumption.

I think the number of people that choose B2P or F2P will continue to be an increasing percentage of the market.

Of course, it's a great marketing technique.  Use the word "free" and watch the masses come running.  Paying for stuff is so passe.

"Why so serious?"
-- The Joker

  Nadia

Elite Member

Joined: 7/26/03
Posts: 11430

8/03/12 10:32:26 AM#46
Originally posted by ste2000

F2P games could be very profitable, if they were built on the Pay To Win model like all the Asian MMOs.

But Western MMOs goes F2P because they aren't good enough and they fail to have a decent subscription base.

This is sad but it's the truth.

i thought Smeds overview, from last year, of the rise in free to play was well written

 

The Free Future

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2011-09-19-the-free-future-editorial

 

  Illyssia

Novice Member

Joined: 8/10/09
Posts: 1523

8/03/12 10:39:32 AM#47
It's clear that the sub model isn't going to work for most games here in 2012. WoW is losing subscribers and it's an old game. It'sPanda expansion isn't  as much game for the buck as GW2 and both are hi fantasy mmo launching at about same time. In a year or twos time WoW will be free-to-play model too, and Titan Blizz's next mmo will use free-to-play model. That's the way it is with games folks the paid sub is a thing of the past now.
  dave6660

Hard Core Member

Joined: 9/26/08
Posts: 2340

"Next time I see you, remind me not to talk to you."

8/03/12 10:46:19 AM#48
Originally posted by Nadia
Originally posted by ste2000

F2P games could be very profitable, if they were built on the Pay To Win model like all the Asian MMOs.

But Western MMOs goes F2P because they aren't good enough and they fail to have a decent subscription base.

This is sad but it's the truth.

i thought Smeds overview, from last year, of the rise in free to play was well written

 

The Free Future

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2011-09-19-the-free-future-editorial

 

Funny he used Zynga as an example, their stock hit an all time low the other day.

"Why so serious?"
-- The Joker

  nariusseldon

Elite Member

Joined: 12/21/07
Posts: 19541

8/03/12 12:27:34 PM#49
Originally posted by dave6660
 

Of course, it's a great marketing technique.  Use the word "free" and watch the masses come running.  Paying for stuff is so passe.

Yeah, and marketing technqiue usually works great when it is backed up by reality. Like in this case, as shown again and again, most F2P players never pay a dime.

Of course the masses come running. Heck, i come running too. Fun for Free. And i have been doing that for 2-3 years now.

In fact, after my WOW annual pass is up, i probably will never play a sub MMO again.

  dave6660

Hard Core Member

Joined: 9/26/08
Posts: 2340

"Next time I see you, remind me not to talk to you."

8/03/12 12:45:27 PM#50
Originally posted by nariusseldon
Originally posted by dave6660
 

Of course, it's a great marketing technique.  Use the word "free" and watch the masses come running.  Paying for stuff is so passe.

Yeah, and marketing technqiue usually works great when it is backed up by reality. Like in this case, as shown again and again, most F2P players never pay a dime.

Of course the masses come running. Heck, i come running too. Fun for Free. And i have been doing that for 2-3 years now.

In fact, after my WOW annual pass is up, i probably will never play a sub MMO again.


The F2P model will work great until the small minority who subsidize the large majority get fed up and stop paying.

"Why so serious?"
-- The Joker

  Zippy

Apprentice Member

Joined: 7/24/03
Posts: 1428

8/03/12 12:53:31 PM#51
i really detest the non P2P model.  The quality of the game and the the quality of the players one encounters is signifigantly different. Quite simply P2P games have a more mature and better skilled playerbase by a very large margin. Older veteran MMO players understand that the traditional sub model is the place to be to play with the type of people they have been playing with the last 15 years.   Unfortunately each new game promising grenner pastures takes a chunk of players from our sub games. We get some back after people realize the new game of the months was not as good as the hype but they do damage to guilds and the playerbase of sub games.While I think the sub model is the only alternative for veteran players it is having a tough time with people lacking patience and jumping back and forth between their sub game and the new flavor of the month game.
  VengeSunsoar

Hard Core Member

Joined: 3/10/04
Posts: 4784

Be Brief, Be Bright... Be Gone.

8/03/12 1:16:15 PM#52
Originally posted by ste2000
Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
Originally posted by ste2000

 

You don't follow much the MMO industry.

EQ2 had 200K at its peak 4 years ago, since then its population declined drammatically, same for LOTRO, DDO ( which was technically dead), AoC and so on.

Every "Western" MMO that went F2P had less than 100K players when they switched to RMT transaction.

But you do not need to trust me saying that only "dead" MMO goes F2P in the western market (I am not talking about the Asians which are built on F2P model and they are successful indeed)

Look at Funcom.

AoC is F2P, so they have the technology, yet TSW is subscription based (for now, though I predict it will go F2P in 6 months time...................because it will lose subs)

If Funcom thought the F2P model was the winning formula they would have launched TSW as a F2P, but they didn't, because the Subscription model is still the more profitable if you can have a steady player base at least between 300K and 500K subs.

Problem with Western MMOs is that the majority of them, don't have more than 200K subs after few months from their release because they are so shallow that player simply refuses to pay a monthly fee for a WoW clone or even worse for an Online Game (Single Player game with MMO features)

F2P games could be very profitable, if they were built on the Pay To Win model like all the Asian MMOs.

But Western MMOs goes F2P because they aren't good enough and they fail to have a decent subscription base.

This is sad but it's the truth.

 

Apparently I follow the industry more than you do.  EQ2 has had a stable population of about 120-160k population for 3-4 years, same with CoH, Lotro had about 250k.  I never mentioned anything about AoC and DDO because they were effectively dead. 

No, the three that I mentioned had were doing quite well, stable and generating a profit.

I don't, I've played them too much, and seen too much data saying otherwise.

Pretty confident that TSW has between 300 and 700k subscriptions right  now.  Whether that is enough for them to generate more profit than with f2p depends entirely on their marketing strategy and the amount they spent on the game.  TSW may very well go F2P within 6 months, and it will be because it crossed that line, wherever that line is.  But that doesn't mean the game is dead or failing.

That line where f2p is more profitable than p2p is not a solid line for all games, it greatly depends on marketing and how much it costs to maintain the game.

Your truth is nothing but hyperbole.

edit - I don't think the player model has anything to do with maturity of the gamer either.  Percentage wise I'm confident that both p2p and f2p have approximately the same number of jerks and good people.  Look at WoW.

Quit worrying about other players in a game and just play.

  sagil

Advanced Member

Joined: 7/16/09
Posts: 288

8/03/12 2:04:40 PM#53

I'm not really sure. My brother is enjoying the crap out of LoL, which is a f2p game where skill matters. I'm currently playing Path of Exile (yeah I paid to be in the closed beta, but it is a f2p game) and having a blast so far.

Steam is releasing f2p games to their shop client.

Just because some noob programmers can make a f2p game, doesn't mean that some of them wont shine. Media is here for a reason. Even though I'm starting to doubt the media and making my own site for reliable reviews, there are also personal user reviews in some sites.

The kids growing up today are playing f2p games on android (because their hands can not yet fathom the PC beast, trust me, I know). Every new generation has lots of time on their hands while seeking job or being a school outcast. Older people have family and responsibility, and they have a job, and guess where most of the money gets put at? Food, ele, house building, rent, kids, etc..

The MMO industry is most likely most played around with by kids, jobless people and people taking cash out of social help banks (in Sweden we don't like that you be on the street because you may have some personal issues).

  Kaneth

Elite Member

Joined: 8/19/07
Posts: 1571

8/03/12 3:26:00 PM#54
Originally posted by Zippy
i really detest the non P2P model.  The quality of the game and the the quality of the players one encounters is signifigantly different. Quite simply P2P games have a more mature and better skilled playerbase by a very large margin. Older veteran MMO players understand that the traditional sub model is the place to be to play with the type of people they have been playing with the last 15 years.   Unfortunately each new game promising grenner pastures takes a chunk of players from our sub games. We get some back after people realize the new game of the months was not as good as the hype but they do damage to guilds and the playerbase of sub games.While I think the sub model is the only alternative for veteran players it is having a tough time with people lacking patience and jumping back and forth between their sub game and the new flavor of the month game.

Really? WoW would like to have a word with you. Sure there's still 9.1 million subs, so you're going to have a lot more variance, but the pay model is not going to determine anything about individual skill or maturity. Asshats are asshats no matter what game they play. Skill within a game is more about familiarity of certain gaming mechanics and reacting to situations, skill varies greatly among all people regardles if they are paying or not. I have been playing mmos since Nov of 1999 with AC1, and played MUDs for about two years before that, so I am not a noob to the scene.

The only part I will concede is that with F2P or B2P gaming you're going to have more younger people (High School and College Kids) since they are typically more strapped for cash. Their age isn't going to determine their skill or maturity outright, but young people to tend to act....well young at times.

As a mmo veteran, I am looking forward to what the future will bring. If GW2 is as successful as many are predicting (and from playing in all three beta weekends, I believe the game will do very well), we could see the B2P business model become more of a norm over the next 5 years or so. Gaming Companies and their Investors are looking for a maximum amount of return on the investment, and subs have a pretty poor track record over the past 7 years or so. Look at how many mmos went F2P, it was either that or closing the project all together I am sure. Considering the uptick in revenue many of these failing mmos have seen when going F2P, investors will take notice. If B2P proves to be profitable, you'll see more of the same.

Personally, I'd rather drop $40-60 on a game once and then play it as I see fit, whether it be no-lifing the game or playing casually. If the game is good enough, they'll wind up making some money off me.

 

  nariusseldon

Elite Member

Joined: 12/21/07
Posts: 19541

8/03/12 4:52:04 PM#55
Originally posted by dave6660
Originally posted by nariusseldon
Originally posted by dave6660
 

Of course, it's a great marketing technique.  Use the word "free" and watch the masses come running.  Paying for stuff is so passe.

Yeah, and marketing technqiue usually works great when it is backed up by reality. Like in this case, as shown again and again, most F2P players never pay a dime.

Of course the masses come running. Heck, i come running too. Fun for Free. And i have been doing that for 2-3 years now.

In fact, after my WOW annual pass is up, i probably will never play a sub MMO again.


The F2P model will work great until the small minority who subsidize the large majority get fed up and stop paying.

Sure, nothing last forever. Not games. Not movies. Not even WOW.

So what? I will take that subsidy as long as there are still whales. It will give free fun for a while.

  iceman00

Novice Member

Joined: 5/04/05
Posts: 1367

Kevin Tierney

8/03/12 9:08:06 PM#56
Originally posted by dave6660
Originally posted by nariusseldon
Originally posted by dave6660
 

Of course, it's a great marketing technique.  Use the word "free" and watch the masses come running.  Paying for stuff is so passe.

Yeah, and marketing technqiue usually works great when it is backed up by reality. Like in this case, as shown again and again, most F2P players never pay a dime.

Of course the masses come running. Heck, i come running too. Fun for Free. And i have been doing that for 2-3 years now.

In fact, after my WOW annual pass is up, i probably will never play a sub MMO again.


The F2P model will work great until the small minority who subsidize the large majority get fed up and stop paying.

In other words, what Zynga is going through right now.

  rdrakken

Apprentice Member

Joined: 6/15/12
Posts: 435

8/03/12 9:23:34 PM#57

MMOs ARE evolving.

They are being made for consoles as well as PCs and now the phone app market has opened up with tie ins. The MMO world was already filled with F2P games making hand over fist like Atlantica Online, Runes of Magic and with Nexon being one of the largest gaming companies on the planet right now making almost half of their over 1 billion a year in profits coming from F2P games...

And now companies outside of Asia and Europe are seeing that the F2P market is bigger than the sub market and can be far more profitable. Only WoW has managed to top the biggest F2P games with its playerbase...once you remove WoW, no sub game has come close to the playerbases of the big F2P games and that was BEFORE consoles and apps came into the picture.

Now, you have the biggest game developers talking about NOTHING but how to open up the MMO genre to player generated content and microtransactions while making them mobile and more interactive when not even logged into the games.

Face it, you are a dinosaur and your outdated way of playing is ending.

  mcburly

Novice Member

Joined: 5/05/08
Posts: 251

8/03/12 9:52:36 PM#58

I like how this post is just a big shot taken at TOR and how it has "failed" even though its still the second largest subbed MMO in the western market. lol fail..... sure.

All that SWTOR's switch to F2P proves is that this is definitely the future for mmos. Devs from numerous companies and many of the top voices in the industry have shared the same sentiment. SWTOR is a quality game, but WOW came out at the right time and cornered the sub market. The sub business model had to evolve for other games to compete and it has.

F2P IS the future and there really is no point in disputing that.... just too much evidence to back it up. It is a good thing too, this model forces devs to make good content worth paying for. Thats better than paying 15 bucks a month just to play a game cause lets face it most MMOs dont give us content each month for that 15 dollars.

(ps I personally guarantee RIFT, TSW, and TERA will all introduce a F2P option within the next 6 months. I also think WOW will open up a F2P option within the next year and TESO will be one of the first MMOs to launch B2P with a sub and no sub option.)

You may continue hating on games.

  nariusseldon

Elite Member

Joined: 12/21/07
Posts: 19541

8/04/12 2:39:42 AM#59
Originally posted by mcburly

(ps I personally guarantee RIFT, TSW, and TERA will all introduce a F2P option within the next 6 months. I also think WOW will open up a F2P option within the next year and TESO will be one of the first MMOs to launch B2P with a sub and no sub option.)

 

Personally, i am waiting for TSW to go F2P. I certainly will not play any new sub games again with so many F2P options. However, TSW interests me because of a very different setting.

I have also no doubt it is going F2P .. and i can wait. With D3 now, Borderland 2 and MOP coming (MOP will prob be the last sub game i played .. since i have the annual pass) .. and other SP games, i have lots of do before trying out TSW.

  Sora2810

Advanced Member

Joined: 7/23/08
Posts: 567

8/04/12 2:46:57 AM#60
Originally posted by BloodyViking

I completely agree.

 

The failiure of the latest batch of MMO's to keep their subscribers is because;

 

1) Not enough grinding (you CAN make grinding fun)

 

2) Not enough social sidegames to keep people busy over time

 

3) Not complex enough character-development with a long timeframe

You sir; have crossed a good line.

It's about time someone believes you can make grinding fun.

Played - M59, EQOA, EQ, EQ2, PS, SWG[Favorite], DAoC, UO, RS, MXO, CoH/CoV, TR, FFXI, FoM, WoW, Eve, Rift, SWTOR, TSW.
Playing - PS2, AoW, GW2

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