Originally posted by Gdemami

 

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Originally posted by DukeTyrion

I normally find that by the time the actual numbers come out, most of the data has already been factored in by rumours in the market.

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Yup, investors and business folk base their multi-million decisions on rumors...

Ever hear of speculators?  Maybe not rumors, but you make decisions based on hunches, anecdotal info, etc.  Rarely can you make moves off of clearly hard facts.  If you are making your investment decisions solely on hard facts, that tends to come after the fact, and you've either already made  alot or lost a lot.

People make investments based on RISK.  Risk involves not always having hard facts.  Or do you think the stock market is just a cash register?

Originally posted by Atlan99

Originally posted by gw1228

Exactly.

Plus Battlefield 3 has sold almost 14 million copies. The profit from Battlefield 3 when all is said and done will be enough  to fund another SWTOR.

Ehmm  some of that money will also fund FAILED projects  which EA has many  which means  just like SWTOR

Ehmm. I hate to break it to you but SWTOR will make lots of money.

Just like it was going to have millions of subscribers right?

Could it?  Of course.  But [mod edit] hasn't really served this game well has it?

Originally posted by Souldrainer

Originally posted by ktanner3

Originally posted by strangelvbm

I forsee one major issue with this FTP plan . They are basically giving away the best parts of the game (leveling/story 1-50) and charging for end game stuff (which most people will, including Bioware themselves, admit wasn't ready for prime time). Why do you think they hyped the Legacy system which was basically all about rolling alts. They KNEW the end game wasn't up to par.

I unsubbed three months ago (didn't even log in for that free month they threw me), but it had nothing to do with the money. I will gladly pay 15 bucks a month for a game that I feel deserves it. SWTOR didn't.  The game is completely static. Nothing you do matters one iota. The choices you make IN YOUR OWN STORY don't even make a difference. And this coming from Bioware!? 

Don't get me wrong, I would LOVE to see them turn this thing around, because a failure of this game will pretty much be a death sentence for future Star Wars MMOs. But from what I've seen by the direction they appear to be heading..........I just don't see it happening. 

They are trying to fix a sinking ship by bailing out the water instead of patching the holes. Both methods are important, but one without the other and you are still sinking.

I don't understand this move either. Unless they plan to charge for alt rolling I don't see this being successful. Or unless they REALLY do plan on adding more stuff for end game because that is the game's biggest weakness. 

 

They are already displaying some vanity items. Vanity items are a proven seller in many games. In fact, Path of Exile plans to make 100% of its money from vanity items.

That's nice but what good does vanity items do for players that have already gotten a few characters to top level and doesn't think that warzones and flashpoints is sufficient reason pay a sub fee? That is the underlining problem with this game from the start and it doesn't change with this new model. You might get a few vanity items sold if they are really bad ass(anything is an improvment over the high level gear currently in game), but how do you keep people there once they are done leveling ?  

They really need to fix Ilum or make open PVP random on a weekly basis. One week the fight could be on Tattoine, the next week it could be on belsavis and so on.  Others have suggested opening up the casinos on Nar Shadar along with many other interesting ideas that don't require a massive overhaul.  Gear Grinding gets old after awhile and not everyone thinks "dress up" is a sufficient end game. 

You know if the break even point is 500K subs @ $15 month that is 7 and a half MILLION dollars per month to BREAK EVEN... Thats insane and anyone who ever would make an ENTERTAINMENT product which required that amout to be considered EVEN is a fool. And a fool and his money are soon parted.

Forget the Moral implications (of which there are many involved including Layoffs for not making 7.5 MILLION per MONTH along with others) but the mere fact that this "GAME" was marketed as it was and is clearly not even an MMO and SWTOR and EA/BIO deserve nothing but to fail.

I have said it before and will continue to say it- We need an MMO crash. A BILLION SWTOR being trucked into the desert one night ala Ataris ET. We need creativity and risk taking and that will ONLY happen once these obscene sums of money are no longer reqiered for success.

Originally posted by SaintPhilip

I have said it before and will continue to say it- We need an MMO crash. A BILLION SWTOR being trucked into the desert one night ala Ataris ET. We need creativity and risk taking and that will ONLY happen once these obscene sums of money are no longer reqiered for success.

Here is the problem. Until the consumer talks with his wallet and not his mouth. Things will stay as they are. Nobody plays the creative mmo's or supports them. At least to this point. 

Either you are a vocal minority or mmo players have zero willpower and integrity. Because the sales and subscription numbers tell a very different story than the ones being told on the forums.

Originally posted by Ringbus

Originally posted by Burntvet

A few of the game devs/publishers on different sites have discussed the "split" on retail sales a few times.

In general, the RETAILER gets 65%-75% of the box price for physical copies, depending on the retailer. So for physical copies, the publisher is getting the small slice.

For digitial distribution, the retailer gets in the 25%-30% range, for a major release large title.

And even on the Origin sales (EA's distributor) I guarantee that they split out a similar amount even though it was an EA product being sold, because any such "sales commission" would be outside any revenue sharing deal with the IP holder, i.e. EA gets to keep that 25% off the top before paying anyone else, same as if another site sold the copies. So it would be profit for Origin. A technicality, but still money not going back into the TOR pot.

 

 

This $50-$60 a box crap going to EA that people throw around makes me laugh.

 

The percentages are roughly correct but there really isn't a split between the publisher and retail.

Once the game has passed QA and has gone Gold:

* The Gold Master disc is either mailed of uploaded to a duplicator who creates the physical game discs

* Then the box components are assembled with duplicated discs

* Storage is needed for the game boxes while they await shipment to retail stores

* Either a distributor or sometimes like with EA in house people have been in the process of talking to retail chains to buy the game, give it good shelf space, set up endcaps for the game in stores

* X number of units are sold to the retailer usually in the 20 something dollar range that the retailer then marks up to the normal 60 dollar retail price.

* Then the boxes are shipped from the publisher or distributor to each retail customer

Each of those steps in the publisher to retail shelf takes its chunk out of the 20 something dollars in revenue the pubisher's revenue. Each game has a different in the amounts each stage takes or the details of the steps - in house distribution vs third party for example.

So the 20 something dollars in revenue have the duplication costs, box materials and assembly, storage and shipping, distribution costs either internal or third party all subtracted from the revenue.

Once all that is subracted from the publisher's revenue from game sales then you start subtracting off the costs to develop the game and the ongoing costs to keep the gaming running, updated, and supported for customers.

 

Good detail on the downstream distribution stuff, my own personal view of similar things has been about what does and does not come back to the developer/publisher/producer.

And I did skip the whole wholesale to retail mark-up as simply being part of the process and again, what goes back to the producer.

But what you say looks to be spot on.

Originally posted by Atlan99

Originally posted by Burntvet

 

A few of the game devs/publishers on different sites have discussed the "split" on retail sales a few times.

In general, the RETAILER gets 65%-75% of the box price for physical copies, depending on the retailer. So for physical copies, the publisher is getting the small slice.

For digitial distribution, the retailer gets in the 25%-30% range, for a major release large title.

And even on the Origin sales (EA's distributor) I guarantee that they split out a similar amount even though it was an EA product being sold, because any such "sales commission" would be outside any revenue sharing deal with the IP holder, i.e. EA gets to keep that 25% off the top before paying anyone else, same as if another site sold the copies. So it would be profit for Origin. A technicality, but still money not going back into the TOR pot.

 

This $50-$60 a box crap going to EA that people throw around makes me laugh.

 

Your logic is so flawed I don't know what to say. When EA makes, publishes and distributes a game it makes all of that money. 

100%

When they make a digital sale through origin they make 100% of the money. 

And I suppose EA owns Walmart and Gamestop as well and those companies are happy to sell EA products for free?

How about no.

For the record, other digital distributors sold plenty of copies of TOR, and no, 100% of the money did not go back to EA.

I guess you missed the word TECHNICALITY. Even so...

And then there is Origin: When they sell a copy of an EA product, a percentage of that sale, commensurate with what other sites/digital retailers get, gets put into a little a box titled: "Origin Revenue". Yes, that money goes back to big EA revenue eventually, but not at the front end, which was the whole point.

Perhaps you might look into how corporations are run or perhaps work for one, before talking ignorantly about corporate finance.

Things run this way BECAUSE more direct revenue from TOR sales would go back to EA, in the form of a "sales commission" than as part of general TOR revenue. As sales commissions are outside the general revenue sharing agreements (between EA, LA and whomever else)  for things like TOR, EA gets to keep the slice of Origin sales, and LA gets nothing. That is why they do it.

Sneaky, but fully legal.

Originally posted by Burntvet 

Good detail on the downstream distribution stuff, my own personal view of similar things has been about what does and does not come back to the developer/publisher/producer.

And I did skip the whole whole to retail mark-up as simply being part of the process and again, what goes back to the producer.

But what you say looks to be spot on.

 

Cheers.

Was just adding more info from personal experience and in no way a flame.

Originally posted by Atlan99

Originally posted by SaintPhilip

I have said it before and will continue to say it- We need an MMO crash. A BILLION SWTOR being trucked into the desert one night ala Ataris ET. We need creativity and risk taking and that will ONLY happen once these obscene sums of money are no longer reqiered for success.

Here is the problem. Until the consumer talks with his wallet and not his mouth. Things will stay as they are. Nobody plays the creative mmo's or supports them. At least to this point. 

Either you are a vocal minority or mmo players have zero willpower and integrity. Because the sales and subscription numbers tell a very different story than the ones being told on the forums.

I fully agree. And I do (support indies) and I do not play the current crop of AAA MMOs. And I am a vocal minority =(

You are right- And its the hype and marketing and brainwashing (yes, that IS what marketing is) that people keep falling for time and time again. I recently saw a documentary about Marketing for Children and thy actually take EKG measurments to see which parts of the brain light up using certain images and words. This isnt tinfoil hat stuff anymore and the top Phycologists are being employed in Marketing.

...BUT. Marketing will only go so far and as game budgets are approaching the the point of collapse (and they are) the point of no return WILL happen and there WILL be a crash.

After a few more spectacular failures we will see a focus on smaller budgets , less overhead and  more niche games made to maintain smaller playebases and still be viable. Its coming I hope) and until then I will continue to support creativity and games I like . So far the AAA market is stale IMHO but once they change I will support them as well.

-Or I will find a new hobby =(

In fact I havnt played an MMO in a Couple yteaars (as in regularly)  until very recently. And its an Idie and very creative.

Originally posted by SaintPhilip

Originally posted by Atlan99

Originally posted by SaintPhilip

I have said it before and will continue to say it- We need an MMO crash. A BILLION SWTOR being trucked into the desert one night ala Ataris ET. We need creativity and risk taking and that will ONLY happen once these obscene sums of money are no longer reqiered for success.

Here is the problem. Until the consumer talks with his wallet and not his mouth. Things will stay as they are. Nobody plays the creative mmo's or supports them. At least to this point. 

Either you are a vocal minority or mmo players have zero willpower and integrity. Because the sales and subscription numbers tell a very different story than the ones being told on the forums.

I fully agree. And I do (support indies) and I do not play the current crop of AAA MMOs. And I am a vocal minority =(

You are right- And its the hype and marketing and brainwashing (yes, that IS what marketing is) that people keep falling for time and time again. I recently saw a documentary about Marketing for Children and thy actually take EKG measurments to see which parts of the brain light up using certain images and words. This isnt tinfoil hat stuff anymore and the top Phycologists are being employed in Marketing.

...BUT. Marketing will only go so far and as game budgets are approaching the the point of collapse (and they are) the point of no return WILL happen and there WILL be a crash.

After a few more spectacular failures we will see a focus on smaller budgets , less overhead and  more niche games made to maintain smaller playebases and still be viable. Its coming I hope) and until then I will continue to support creativity and games I like . So far the AAA market is stale IMHO but once they change I will support them as well.

-Or I will find a new hobby =(

In fact I havnt played an MMO in a Couple yteaars (as in regularly)  until very recently. And its an Idie and very creative.

Then you must be a very very happy mmo:er!!! I don't see the problem!? An Indie developed mmo that you find creative and most likely adore! Nice! Right?

Originally posted by Clawzon

Originally posted by SaintPhilip

Originally posted by Atlan99

Originally posted by SaintPhilip

I have said it before and will continue to say it- We need an MMO crash. A BILLION SWTOR being trucked into the desert one night ala Ataris ET. We need creativity and risk taking and that will ONLY happen once these obscene sums of money are no longer reqiered for success.

Here is the problem. Until the consumer talks with his wallet and not his mouth. Things will stay as they are. Nobody plays the creative mmo's or supports them. At least to this point. 

Either you are a vocal minority or mmo players have zero willpower and integrity. Because the sales and subscription numbers tell a very different story than the ones being told on the forums.

I fully agree. And I do (support indies) and I do not play the current crop of AAA MMOs. And I am a vocal minority =(

You are right- And its the hype and marketing and brainwashing (yes, that IS what marketing is) that people keep falling for time and time again. I recently saw a documentary about Marketing for Children and thy actually take EKG measurments to see which parts of the brain light up using certain images and words. This isnt tinfoil hat stuff anymore and the top Phycologists are being employed in Marketing.

...BUT. Marketing will only go so far and as game budgets are approaching the the point of collapse (and they are) the point of no return WILL happen and there WILL be a crash.

After a few more spectacular failures we will see a focus on smaller budgets , less overhead and  more niche games made to maintain smaller playebases and still be viable. Its coming I hope) and until then I will continue to support creativity and games I like . So far the AAA market is stale IMHO but once they change I will support them as well.

-Or I will find a new hobby =(

In fact I havnt played an MMO in a Couple yteaars (as in regularly)  until very recently. And its an Idie and very creative.

Then you must be a very very happy mmo:er!!! I don't see the problem!? An Inde developed mmo that you find creative and most likely adore! Nice! Right?

Sure- But the indies need bigger budgets and teams. What I am talking about is an equalibrium where AAA quality games are innovative and fun. Where Indie IDEAS meet AAA quality. Mu appologies for not being clear.

I think the easiest way to stop the devs from making these horrid games is people stop preordering games. I saved so much while watching my friends jump on the latest bandwagon as it would come out. Each time, after a month or two, they lose interest. Yet they repeat the cycle.

Originally posted by Crazy_Stick

EA in particular and Bioware through association are dishonest when to comes to providing accurate subscribing player totals. They get away with it for now but I will not be surprised if they are eventually brought to heel for lying to their shareholders by ommission if not fact. It’s a shadey business practice if not yet criminal beyond shadow of a doubt. They constantly fluff numbers by including people on trial accounts, free to play week ends, and every other scheming twist that they can get away with to spin numbers higher for their shareholders without ever really indicating the current number of players logged in and paying this or that month.

 ...snip...

Indeed. I wonder if Goldman will downgrade them, hanging up on one of the mostinfluencial people on the street......classic.

Originally posted by jeremyjodes

Meanwhile on a remote beach in the caribbean...

 

Rich Vogel is fapping to a large pontoon boat filled with 150 million dollars of EAs money, laughing so hard about he just pulled off the hiest of the century.

That award would have to go to space cadet Gariott, 2 or 3 times over.

Originally posted by lugal

I think the easiest way to stop the devs from making these horrid games is people stop preordering games. I saved so much while watching my friends jump on the latest bandwagon as it would come out. Each time, after a month or two, they lose interest. Yet they repeat the cycle.

Not Necessarily.  Education through learning is the best remidy.

I preordered Cataclysm and got burned by Blizzard for an inferior product.  I won't buy another Activition-Blizzard product (and D3 looked lame compared to D2 and it was).

I won't buy another EA-Blizzard product now (unless TOR takes a serious game direction / market swing or added features).

BTW don't take that as an entitled opinion.. it's more of an unentitled opinion, thank you.

And there are plenty of fun games to take a chance on out there.  Big comapnies aren't necessarily the source of good games .. lot's of smaller games are out there that have more fun (so stop laughing at your friend for trying new things..! .. oneday he/she will hit gold).

Try em with your friend instead.

Originally posted by Gdemami

 

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Originally posted by DukeTyrion

I normally find that by the time the actual numbers come out, most of the data has already been factored in by rumours in the market.

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Yup, investors and business folk base their multi-million decisions on rumors...

There is an old adage on the street, 'buy the rumour, sell the news'. Or in EAs case 'short the rumour, buy the news'.

One thing you can be sure of people like Goldman will dump thier holdings and even get short in accounts that permit it, before downgarding them. In fact if they want to sell EA stock and have a lot of it they might even concider upgrading them to generate willing buyers to sell to. Scandalous eh?

Originally posted by Atlan99

Originally posted by Burntvet

 

A few of the game devs/publishers on different sites have discussed the "split" on retail sales a few times.

In general, the RETAILER gets 65%-75% of the box price for physical copies, depending on the retailer. So for physical copies, the publisher is getting the small slice.

For digitial distribution, the retailer gets in the 25%-30% range, for a major release large title.

And even on the Origin sales (EA's distributor) I guarantee that they split out a similar amount even though it was an EA product being sold, because any such "sales commission" would be outside any revenue sharing deal with the IP holder, i.e. EA gets to keep that 25% off the top before paying anyone else, same as if another site sold the copies. So it would be profit for Origin. A technicality, but still money not going back into the TOR pot.

 

This $50-$60 a box crap going to EA that people throw around makes me laugh.

 

Your logic is so flawed I don't know what to say. When EA makes, publishes and distributes a game it makes all of that money. 

100%

When they make a digital sale through origin they make 100% of the money. 

Shhhh don't tell Lucas.

Last post for now to this rather entertaining thread. This Yahoo chart shows EA's stock price, it would be easy to make it look like a shocking decline but it also has Activision and the NASDAQ as a whole on there so no shenanigans. It still isnt pretty.

https://www.google.co.uk/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1343419200000&chddm=101585&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC;NASDAQ:ATVI&cmptdms=0;0&q=NASDAQ:EA&&fct=big

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Originally posted by iceman00

Ever hear of speculators?  Maybe not rumors, but you make decisions based on hunches, anecdotal info, etc.  Rarely can you make moves off of clearly hard facts. 

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Yes, those make the little waves and fluctuations I talked about, however they have no impact on trends which is what was discussed here.