I would be more worried about active players after the first few months. I can see a lot of things turning people off pretty quickly.

People like their shinies, people don't like waiting in WvW lines. I mean, those are just two main things. You could go on about optimisation among other things. You better hope GW2 doesn't "succeed" like D3 did. Sure, it sold a ton..but..the game is pretty horrible if you ask most, especially considering it took them like 7 years to make it. What a joke...

5 million.

Think of all the disappointed Diablo 3 players that are going to break down and buy this game, even the ones that bash it and haven't even played it yet.

1-2 million.

Originally posted by Justsomenoob

5 million.

 

Think of all the disappointed Diablo 3 players that are going to break down and buy this game, even the ones that bash it and haven't even played it yet.

Actually I think a lot of Diablo 3 players will be looking more at games in the same genre, such as Torchlight 2, Path of Exile or Grim Dawn. (Guessing TL2 will have the biggest success of these three, since it'll actually be a good game rather than a suckfest.)

Over 9000!

...

I think I'll go kill myself now.

Yeah it will sell well initially, but as the person above said...

People like progression.  They want to advance days, weeks and months after hitting level cap.   Cosmetic advancement isn't that much of an incentive for many people.   My friend, when I introduced him to the game, has gotten very hyped-up about it, but just gave me a confused look when I said there was 'no gear progression' after a point.

Not many people like a gear grind.  But I still want to advance my character and get more powerful after launch.  

I would say under 2.5 million, simply because it does'nt have the words 'Guildcraft or Guild Wars the Old Republic' in the title of the game 

i am going to come out and say this

0 subs by launch, 0 subs by 2 month mark and 0 subs by 2085

to b

Originally posted by Axxar

Originally posted by Justsomenoob

5 million.

 

Think of all the disappointed Diablo 3 players that are going to break down and buy this game, even the ones that bash it and haven't even played it yet.

Actually I think a lot of Diablo 3 players will be looking more at games in the same genre, such as Torchlight 2, Path of Exile or Grim Dawn. (Guessing TL2 will have the biggest success of these three, since it'll actually be a good game rather than a suckfest.)

This is certainly true.   I don't expect them to ALL go to GW2 or anything like that.   However there's certainly plenty of overlap between MMO players and action RPG players.    In fact I am one of them here now, as I played D3 and was disappointed...and now have bought GW2.

There's also a fair bit of discussion on their forums from people looking forward to this game (not as much as PoE and TL2, but a good amount).   Or at least there was back when I read it.

I think Guild Wars 2 might be a great pull for anyone that invested in Diablo III. At this point players will be getting fairly tired and looking for another option. Diablo III is probably the closest true competitor given box price, payment model and actual system requirements.

Realistically, I think Guild Wars 2 has the potential to break 5 million in EU and NA, in actuality it will probably closer to 3 million.

2 mil

2 mil maybe 2.2 mil tops

Originally posted by CujoSWAoA

slams down juice box.

LETS DO THIS.

500k to 1.5k

Ease up on the juice buddy. . . I think your second 'k' was meant to be an 'm'?    Maybe your keyboard i slick from the juice.

Originally posted by Justsomenoob

Originally posted by Axxar

Actually I think a lot of Diablo 3 players will be looking more at games in the same genre, such as Torchlight 2, Path of Exile or Grim Dawn. (Guessing TL2 will have the biggest success of these three, since it'll actually be a good game rather than a suckfest.)

This is certainly true.   I don't expect them to ALL go to GW2 or anything like that.   However there's certainly plenty of overlap between MMO players and action RPG players.    In fact I am one of them here now, as I played D3 and was disappointed...and now have bought GW2.

out of the games mentioned, only Torchlight 2 is hoping to release before 09/25 (end of summer)

http://www.joystiq.com/2012/07/19/torchlight-2-devs-still-planning-summer-launch/

Ah, I love these "pulling-numbers-out-of-your-behind" kinda threads.

So I'll say 3.7 million in two months.

I'm going to vote 1.2-2 million copies sold.  However if it suddenly becomes a wild success in the way of Minecraft or something along those lines I wouldn't be surprised if we saw 2.5-3 million sales.

Originally posted by BigAndShiny

Yeah it will sell well initially, but as the person above said...

 

People like progression.  They want to advance days, weeks and months after hitting level cap.   Cosmetic advancement isn't that much of an incentive for many people.   My friend, when I introduced him to the game, has gotten very hyped-up about it, but just gave me a confused look when I said there was 'no gear progression' after a point.

Not many people like a gear grind.  But I still want to advance my character and get more powerful after launch.  

You say this, yet 7 million people bought GW1 to date and the market has grown probably 10x the amount of players that were around since GW1 came out. GW1 had less progression incentive then GW2 has, and GW1 only had minor support for content beyond the expansions. This game will be supported as much as a sub game AND have expansions just as often as the original game had. 

This game has no sub and offers the same amount of content if not more then most sub based MMOs. ALL sub based MMOs have very minimal content but just make it last longer with huge grinds. With GW2 ArenaNet is actually putting out content, not artificial content gates with item progression. You may like item progression, which means this game is probably not for you. But let's be realistic here. Probably 10-20% of people actually raid in games with raiding, (WoW included) alot of the players playing MMOs never even hit max level, and of the people who do raid most of them don't raid on the cutting edge. You think those people care about item progression? You can pretty much max out on gear pre-raiding in every MMO with raiding within a few weeks of casual dungeon runs. This is the reason that sub based MMOs have such a high turn over rate. These guys want to see the content and be done with it, they don't care about grinding for items. If the content is compelling enough people will enjoy it, but because GW2 is not sub based...ArenaNet does not need to force people to keep playing. 

Millions of people buy games without progression. Our genre, hell the RPG genre, has been saturated by gear grinds. The reason that the RPG genre never really got as big as something like the FPS genre is because of stuff like this. People like to be able to hop in and enjoy the game which should have enough replay value just because it is fun -- not because it requires you to play it to continue having fun. (ie, grind for gear) At this point I would say hell yeah, get outta here if you want a gear grind. Sorry that 99% of gamers have lives and cannot dedicate hours and hours to simply grinding the same dungeons for a 10 strength upgrade. This is the modern world now and the way developers are going to make money. They need to cater to a larger audience, and that is the direction MMOS are heading. No, it does not support a sub model, either.

My guess is around 2.5M. 

2,457,658 +/- 2m

Originally posted by azmundai

less than 9 billion

You win !