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Star Wars: The Old Republic

Star Wars: The Old Republic 

General Discussion  » What will the final nail in the coffin be?

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144 posts found
  MosesZD

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/10/12
Posts: 1407

7/11/12 9:56:16 AM#101
Originally posted by HellCaster
Originally posted by Karteli

Sadly this game is on it's way out, whether YOU like it, or I like it, it simply is.

There is nothing to hold gamers onto.  While I strongly promoted this game, I now regret it, because it is just one humungous catastrophe, one which cannot be described, only experienced.

I feel bad for gamers, because this was their hope for a long term MMO.  In the end, it was a shit grinder that keeps turning to pump out more shit. /sigh

^ This sums up my relationship with SWTOR as well. I did love it but I did cancel my 2 accounts a few weeks back and they are about to lapse. I was really hopeful for this title but they failed the IP.

To me this isn't a WoW clone but it wasn't really original either. Who makes a game touting "choices" that really mean nothing at all? I got to the point that I'd just picking the most obnoxious choices trying to goad my sith masters into actually trying to kill me but, alas, the situation reset every-other dialog like nothing ever happened - to force you back on the hard-coded destiny not of your choosing - pathetic!

 

I had both these feelings.   I'm just glad I cut my losses early.  

 

As for the choices, it's what BioWare does.   I noticed it during NWN when I started modding.  Once you got into their dialog trees you realized virutally all of  the branching didn't mean squat and in the whole game there were only a few meaningful choices.  And they weren't that meaningful because, no matter what, you were going to have the highly scripted boss fight.

  gameguy369

Hard Core Member

Joined: 8/19/09
Posts: 425

7/11/12 9:56:22 AM#102
Originally posted by HellCaster
Originally posted by Karteli

Sadly this game is on it's way out, whether YOU like it, or I like it, it simply is.

There is nothing to hold gamers onto.  While I strongly promoted this game, I now regret it, because it is just one humungous catastrophe, one which cannot be described, only experienced.

I feel bad for gamers, because this was their hope for a long term MMO.  In the end, it was a shit grinder that keeps turning to pump out more shit. /sigh

^ This sums up my relationship with SWTOR as well. I did love it but I did cancel my 2 accounts a few weeks back and they are about to lapse. I was really hopeful for this title but they failed the IP.

To me this isn't a WoW clone but it wasn't really original either. Who makes a game touting "choices" that really mean nothing at all? I got to the point that I'd just picking the most obnoxious choices trying to goad my sith masters into actually trying to kill me but, alas, the situation reset every-other dialog like nothing ever happened - to force you back on the hard-coded destiny not of your choosing - pathetic!

Bioware. See ME3.

  MosesZD

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/10/12
Posts: 1407

7/11/12 9:59:34 AM#103
Originally posted by Valua
Originally posted by superniceguy
Originally posted by Valua

 

 

But nothing this year will be the "final nail in the coffin." Expect The Old Republic to be around for at least another year as a sub game, then it'll go F2P if it does as badly as people make out, and then be round forever?

 

I do not think it will go F2P, as they already have the free trials and free play to level 15. EA/Bioware are saying they are "looking at" F2P, but that probably means they are trying to convince LA. LA prevented SOE taking SWG  F2P

I can not see SWTOR working as F2P. They still need more systems in place to keep people playing. People will still play/pay through the game, and when hit 50 will just as likely quit again still. It is better off as it is now - buy the game, play though it in one or two months, and then quit. SWTORs current payment model is cheaper than what F2P will be. People on F2P will probably end up paying more than it is now once hit 50.

 

The thing with F2P though is that it might not keep players for as long as subscription games, but it gets new players in constantly, therefore they can afford to lose people with the rate they gain them.

 

If The Old Republic falls below 300,000 subs I can bet my house on it that it'll go F2P, LA will probably force them too. You have to remember that this game cost 100-200million to make, and they wouldn't have yet even made back that yet, let alone a profit.

 

And we all know what LA is all about, milking the cash cow that is Star Wars. They will go F2P to make any profits they can.

 

Also, I'd just like to point out that LA probably didn't let SoE make SWG F2P because The Old Republic was already in the works, LA would have known they were closing down SWG for at least two years before it shutdown sadly.

 

Two Star Wars MMO's doesn't work profit wise.

So, by your logic, if Toyota makes cars, all other car manufacturers should just give up because they can't make a profit?    I would suggest you rethink your assertion.

 

 

  hikaru77

Advanced Member

Joined: 3/28/07
Posts: 791

7/11/12 10:01:03 AM#104
Originally posted by Clawzon

So, now when it's been so long since the awful reality appeared to us....the complete failure. What will the final nail in the coffin be?

 

 

How the most populated P2P MMO but WoW in the west is a fail?, i couldnt find any hater to answer that question. We will see a drop with the release of gw2 but just for a few weeks, gw2 is B2P and casual and we wont get regular content updates. Then BW have more content updates and a expansion by the end of the year so people will come back once again. swtor is a fail, thats just from a hater point of view, and far far away from the real world.  

  superniceguy

Elite Member

Joined: 2/17/07
Posts: 1917

NGE > NGE 2, LOTRO > NGE 2, STO > NGE 2, KOTOR > NGE 2, Lego Star Wars > NGE 2. NGE 2 = SWTOR

7/11/12 10:01:53 AM#105
Originally posted by Valua

 

The thing with F2P though is that it might not keep players for as long as subscription games, but it gets new players in constantly, therefore they can afford to lose people with the rate they gain them.

 

If The Old Republic falls below 300,000 subs I can bet my house on it that it'll go F2P, LA will probably force them too. You have to remember that this game cost 100-200million to make, and they wouldn't have yet even made back that yet, let alone a profit.

 

If the F2P to level 15 does not bring in too many players, and the past free trials have not done, then they may not be bothered to spend time / money converting it to F2P. They may just cut their losses and shut the game down. It will only be worth converting to F2P if they are sure that people will play, otherwise it is just more money down the drain.

SWG proved people would have played still with the free 45 days (and that was only on existing SOE accounts), the multiple accounts, TCG spending etc.

Star Trek Online - Best Free MMORPG of 2012
Do not take peoples opinion for the truth, search the internet to see if it is true

  MosesZD

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/10/12
Posts: 1407

7/11/12 10:04:33 AM#106
Originally posted by Valua

The fact that Mists of Pandaria has the lowest votes shows that this poll is stupid and swarmed by Guild Wars 2 fangurls that believe the game they like will make a massive impact on every single game in the MMO genre.

 

At the end of the day we all should know by now that Pandaria is a massive threat to every game being released this year, as was every other WoW expansion.

 

3v3 PvP and B2P might affect WoW more so than other games in the past, but not by much. 

 

But I think all of the options in the poll will impact ToR negatively combined, just Pandaria will clearly make the biggest impact, nothing will come close to the dent it will make (on any MMO for that matter.)

 

Edit;

 

But nothing this year will be the "final nail in the coffin." Expect The Old Republic to be around for at least another year as a sub game, then it'll go F2P if it does as badly as people make out, and then be round forever?

 

MoP, like Cata, will sell between 5 and 5.5 million copies.   It is, however, an EXPANSION PACK, which will (for all reasonable discussion purposes) only be bought by WoW players.   In short, it's being sold to a captive, defined audience and not the general gaming public.

 

SWTOR and GW2 are competing in the general MMO, non-WoW market.    Which is why GW2 will have more impact on SWTOR than WoW.   Especially as, if only anecdotally, most of the bored WoW players went back to WoW pretty quick because WoW offers what they want and SWTOR doesn't really...

 

 

  CujoSWAoA

Novice Member

Joined: 10/27/04
Posts: 1844

"Pablo Picasso said art is a lie that tells the truth."

7/11/12 10:06:40 AM#107

You guys can't predict LucasArts' stupidity.

All anyone asks for is Battlefront 3.

Is LA making it?

No. They're making 1313... a bounty hunter game.

The 2nd most asked for game?

Star Wars: Boba Fett.

Is 1313 a Boba Fett game?

No.

You cannot predict how stupid LucasArts is.

  Icewhite

Made History

Joined: 7/11/11
Posts: 5511

Pink, it's like red but not quite.

7/11/12 10:12:16 AM#108
Originally posted by MosesZD

Warhammer has gone from 100 to 2 servers.   They haven't pulled the plug.   Heck, they're even doing some kind expansion or development work (which IMO illustrates the Fallacy of Sunk Costs) on it in some hopes of making another go at it...

We've never really seen a game "come back" from the bottom before, but we have seen innumerable games cling to life for years.  It just goes to show how very little a working mmo needs (income) to survive indefinitely.  Look at those old classics (declared 'dead' years ago) that are working towards a second decade.

Gamer spectators talk only about millions of players or fail, all or nothing.  But that isn't how the real world of mmo producers works, never has been.

  ktanner3

Master

Joined: 3/19/06
Posts: 3922

Trolls will be ignored

7/11/12 10:35:21 AM#109
Originally posted by Icewhite
Originally posted by MosesZD

Warhammer has gone from 100 to 2 servers.   They haven't pulled the plug.   Heck, they're even doing some kind expansion or development work (which IMO illustrates the Fallacy of Sunk Costs) on it in some hopes of making another go at it...

We've never really seen a game "come back" from the bottom before, but we have seen innumerable games cling to life for years.  It just goes to show how very little a working mmo needs (income) to survive indefinitely.  Look at those old classics (declared 'dead' years ago) that are working towards a second decade.

Gamer spectators talk only about millions of players or fail, all or nothing.  But that isn't how the real world of mmo producers works, never has been.

This.

-No company keeps a game going when it isn't making a profit..

-No company will shut a game down when  it's making profit.

I'v enever played UO, but there is obviously some one that is or else it would have been shut down by now. The final nail for TOR will be when the license is up for renewal and EA/bioware decides that it  isn't worth keeping.  Nothing more nothing less. 

 

NGE killed SWG. Get over it like the rest of us did in 2005.

  Zorgo

Elite Member

Joined: 12/05/05
Posts: 1792

Who did wrong? The advertiser hired to sell the game or the consumer who put faith in advertising?

7/11/12 10:42:10 AM#110
Originally posted by MosesZD
Originally posted by Valua

The fact that Mists of Pandaria has the lowest votes shows that this poll is stupid and swarmed by Guild Wars 2 fangurls that believe the game they like will make a massive impact on every single game in the MMO genre.

 

At the end of the day we all should know by now that Pandaria is a massive threat to every game being released this year, as was every other WoW expansion.

 

3v3 PvP and B2P might affect WoW more so than other games in the past, but not by much. 

 

But I think all of the options in the poll will impact ToR negatively combined, just Pandaria will clearly make the biggest impact, nothing will come close to the dent it will make (on any MMO for that matter.)

 

Edit;

 

But nothing this year will be the "final nail in the coffin." Expect The Old Republic to be around for at least another year as a sub game, then it'll go F2P if it does as badly as people make out, and then be round forever?

 

MoP, like Cata, will sell between 5 and 5.5 million copies.   It is, however, an EXPANSION PACK, which will (for all reasonable discussion purposes) only be bought by WoW players.   In short, it's being sold to a captive, defined audience and not the general gaming public.

 

SWTOR and GW2 are competing in the general MMO, non-WoW market.    Which is why GW2 will have more impact on SWTOR than WoW.   Especially as, if only anecdotally, most of the bored WoW players went back to WoW pretty quick because WoW offers what they want and SWTOR doesn't really...

 

 

So what leads you to believe only half of WoW subscribers will buy Panderia? I find that to be a ludicrously low number.

I admit there seems to be more anamosity toward this expansion even from wow players than any before, but still I can't imagine that it is 50% of the population.

  superniceguy

Elite Member

Joined: 2/17/07
Posts: 1917

NGE > NGE 2, LOTRO > NGE 2, STO > NGE 2, KOTOR > NGE 2, Lego Star Wars > NGE 2. NGE 2 = SWTOR

7/11/12 10:57:05 AM#111
Originally posted by ktanner3
Originally posted by Icewhite
Originally posted by MosesZD

Warhammer has gone from 100 to 2 servers.   They haven't pulled the plug.   Heck, they're even doing some kind expansion or development work (which IMO illustrates the Fallacy of Sunk Costs) on it in some hopes of making another go at it...

We've never really seen a game "come back" from the bottom before, but we have seen innumerable games cling to life for years.  It just goes to show how very little a working mmo needs (income) to survive indefinitely.  Look at those old classics (declared 'dead' years ago) that are working towards a second decade.

Gamer spectators talk only about millions of players or fail, all or nothing.  But that isn't how the real world of mmo producers works, never has been.

This.

-No company keeps a game going when it isn't making a profit..

-No company will shut a game down when  it's making profit.

I'v enever played UO, but there is obviously some one that is or else it would have been shut down by now. The final nail for TOR will be when the license is up for renewal and EA/bioware decides that it  isn't worth keeping.  Nothing more nothing less. 

 

 

Actually SOE kept EQmac going, and that does not make a profit. SWG was making a profit and it got shut down, otherwise they would have given 1-3 months notice for closure (instead of 6) if it was not making money. There was definately some conttract/dealing with SWG and SWTOR which made SWG get shut down regardless how well it was doing or was going to do. SWG having 6 months notice and gets shut down as SWTORs launches is just too coincindental

SOE can keep games going even if not making a profit as long as their other games are making enough money to support them.

Nothing makes sense where LA is concerned.

Star Trek Online - Best Free MMORPG of 2012
Do not take peoples opinion for the truth, search the internet to see if it is true

  Esquire1980

Apprentice Member

Joined: 8/12/07
Posts: 526

7/11/12 11:39:39 AM#112
Originally posted by superniceguy
Originally posted by ktanner3
Originally posted by Icewhite
Originally posted by MosesZD

Warhammer has gone from 100 to 2 servers.   They haven't pulled the plug.   Heck, they're even doing some kind expansion or development work (which IMO illustrates the Fallacy of Sunk Costs) on it in some hopes of making another go at it...

We've never really seen a game "come back" from the bottom before, but we have seen innumerable games cling to life for years.  It just goes to show how very little a working mmo needs (income) to survive indefinitely.  Look at those old classics (declared 'dead' years ago) that are working towards a second decade.

Gamer spectators talk only about millions of players or fail, all or nothing.  But that isn't how the real world of mmo producers works, never has been.

This.

-No company keeps a game going when it isn't making a profit..

-No company will shut a game down when  it's making profit.

I'v enever played UO, but there is obviously some one that is or else it would have been shut down by now. The final nail for TOR will be when the license is up for renewal and EA/bioware decides that it  isn't worth keeping.  Nothing more nothing less. 

 

 

Actually SOE kept EQmac going, and that does not make a profit. SWG was making a profit and it got shut down, otherwise they would have given 1-3 months notice for closure (instead of 6) if it was not making money. There was definately some conttract/dealing with SWG and SWTOR which made SWG get shut down regardless how well it was doing or was going to do. SWG having 6 months notice and gets shut down as SWTORs launches is just too coincindental

SOE can keep games going even if not making a profit as long as their other games are making enough money to support them.

Nothing makes sense where LA is concerned.

Actualy, as a long term player of SWG myself, the signs were all there.  The point of "SOE giving up on SWG" was after the failure of C6CD thru GU-Whatever and the hiring and removal of Lorin Jameison (Deadmeat) as the SWG producer.  DM came in with yet another NGE type plan to "save the game" only this time doing the deed in increments instead of 1 large patch.  His year long plan failed, just the same as CU and NGE did when the same exact design of CHANGES came into view.  Before C6CD, Smed annouced he had "over 100K" subs to SWG.  After C6CD and even after C7 and C8 (which were addition CHANGES and done well actualy) the playerbase was estimating 30K subs.  The problem was C6 that CHANGED everything yet again.  DM was "promoted" to get him out of there, the producer for the upcoming "Clone Wars" was brought in as nothing more than on the job training (which he gave us zombies) and when CW was ready, he was pulled and T2 took over and added producer responsibiltys onto his existing job.  (letting the contract run out without any more costs)

The decision to close SWG was made at the point of DM's pulling as producer.

On the MMORPG.com vet refuge forums, it was stated, back then (above) that LA was "forgiving" the 1 mil IP payments, per/yr, since the sub fall at C6CD.  When the time came to renew, they simply would not go with "forgivness" any longer and SOE basicly had no other choice in the matter anylonger.  LA, I'm sure thought they had a goldmine with TOR, and no longer needed SWG with all of it's problems around.

I have to /agree with some of the LA haters statements that if SWG was up today it would of been doing "better" as the TOR failure would of been the absolute best advertisment for SWG that ever was.  There are posters in this very thread that said they would of tried SWG after TOR.  But, Smed is now convinced that F2P is now the way to go and LA thought they had the ultimate cashcow with TOR so it was really never going to even get a chance of happening.  No meeting of the minds there at all.

  ktanner3

Master

Joined: 3/19/06
Posts: 3922

Trolls will be ignored

7/11/12 11:59:56 AM#113
Originally posted by Esquire1980
Originally posted by superniceguy
Originally posted by ktanner3
 

This.

-No company keeps a game going when it isn't making a profit..

-No company will shut a game down when  it's making profit.

I'v enever played UO, but there is obviously some one that is or else it would have been shut down by now. The final nail for TOR will be when the license is up for renewal and EA/bioware decides that it  isn't worth keeping.  Nothing more nothing less. 

 

 

Actually SOE kept EQmac going, and that does not make a profit. SWG was making a profit and it got shut down, otherwise they would have given 1-3 months notice for closure (instead of 6) if it was not making money. There was definately some conttract/dealing with SWG and SWTOR which made SWG get shut down regardless how well it was doing or was going to do. SWG having 6 months notice and gets shut down as SWTORs launches is just too coincindental

SOE can keep games going even if not making a profit as long as their other games are making enough money to support them.

Nothing makes sense where LA is concerned.

Actualy, as a long term player of SWG myself, the signs were all there.  The point of "SOE giving up on SWG" was after the failure of C6CD thru GU-Whatever and the hiring and removal of Lorin Jameison (Deadmeat) as the SWG producer.  DM came in with yet another NGE type plan to "save the game" only this time doing the deed in increments instead of 1 large patch.  His year long plan failed, just the same as CU and NGE did when the same exact design of CHANGES came into view.  Before C6CD, Smed annouced he had "over 100K" subs to SWG.  After C6CD and even after C7 and C8 (which were addition CHANGES and done well actualy) the playerbase was estimating 30K subs.  The problem was C6 that CHANGED everything yet again.  DM was "promoted" to get him out of there, the producer for the upcoming "Clone Wars" was brought in as nothing more than on the job training (which he gave us zombies) and when CW was ready, he was pulled and T2 took over and added producer responsibiltys onto his existing job.  (letting the contract run out without any more costs)

I almost forgot about that whole zombie debacle. I remember reading that on the forums here. The constant changes with that game is one of the reasons I never went back to it.

The decision to close SWG was made at the point of DM's pulling as producer.

On the MMORPG.com vet refuge forums, it was stated, back then (above) that LA was "forgiving" the 1 mil IP payments, per/yr, since the sub fall at C6CD.  When the time came to renew, they simply would not go with "forgivness" any longer and SOE basicly had no other choice in the matter anylonger.  LA, I'm sure thought they had a goldmine with TOR, and no longer needed SWG with all of it's problems around.

I have to /agree with some of the LA haters statements that if SWG was up today it would of been doing "better" as the TOR failure would of been the absolute best advertisment for SWG that ever was.  There are posters in this very thread that said they would of tried SWG after TOR.  But, Smed is now convinced that F2P is now the way to go and LA thought they had the ultimate cashcow with TOR so it was really never going to even get a chance of happening.  No meeting of the minds there at all.

 That's pretty much my feelings on the matter. One million dollars a year is just a ridiculous price to pay for any IP. That would be a quarter of SWG's revenue back in their best days of 350k subs. There was no way to retain that once the subs dropped below 100k. So as others have said, it wasn't making a profit and the plug was pulled. End of story. ,

NGE killed SWG. Get over it like the rest of us did in 2005.

  superniceguy

Elite Member

Joined: 2/17/07
Posts: 1917

NGE > NGE 2, LOTRO > NGE 2, STO > NGE 2, KOTOR > NGE 2, Lego Star Wars > NGE 2. NGE 2 = SWTOR

7/11/12 1:01:34 PM#114
Originally posted by Esquire1980
Originally posted by superniceguy
Originally posted by ktanner3
Originally posted by Icewhite
Originally posted by MosesZD

Warhammer has gone from 100 to 2 servers.   They haven't pulled the plug.   Heck, they're even doing some kind expansion or development work (which IMO illustrates the Fallacy of Sunk Costs) on it in some hopes of making another go at it...

We've never really seen a game "come back" from the bottom before, but we have seen innumerable games cling to life for years.  It just goes to show how very little a working mmo needs (income) to survive indefinitely.  Look at those old classics (declared 'dead' years ago) that are working towards a second decade.

Gamer spectators talk only about millions of players or fail, all or nothing.  But that isn't how the real world of mmo producers works, never has been.

This.

-No company keeps a game going when it isn't making a profit..

-No company will shut a game down when  it's making profit.

I'v enever played UO, but there is obviously some one that is or else it would have been shut down by now. The final nail for TOR will be when the license is up for renewal and EA/bioware decides that it  isn't worth keeping.  Nothing more nothing less. 

 

 

Actually SOE kept EQmac going, and that does not make a profit. SWG was making a profit and it got shut down, otherwise they would have given 1-3 months notice for closure (instead of 6) if it was not making money. There was definately some conttract/dealing with SWG and SWTOR which made SWG get shut down regardless how well it was doing or was going to do. SWG having 6 months notice and gets shut down as SWTORs launches is just too coincindental

SOE can keep games going even if not making a profit as long as their other games are making enough money to support them.

Nothing makes sense where LA is concerned.

Actualy, as a long term player of SWG myself, the signs were all there.  The point of "SOE giving up on SWG" was after the failure of C6CD thru GU-Whatever and the hiring and removal of Lorin Jameison (Deadmeat) as the SWG producer.  DM came in with yet another NGE type plan to "save the game" only this time doing the deed in increments instead of 1 large patch.  His year long plan failed, just the same as CU and NGE did when the same exact design of CHANGES came into view.  Before C6CD, Smed annouced he had "over 100K" subs to SWG.  After C6CD and even after C7 and C8 (which were addition CHANGES and done well actualy) the playerbase was estimating 30K subs.  The problem was C6 that CHANGED everything yet again.  DM was "promoted" to get him out of there, the producer for the upcoming "Clone Wars" was brought in as nothing more than on the job training (which he gave us zombies) and when CW was ready, he was pulled and T2 took over and added producer responsibiltys onto his existing job.  (letting the contract run out without any more costs)

The decision to close SWG was made at the point of DM's pulling as producer.

On the MMORPG.com vet refuge forums, it was stated, back then (above) that LA was "forgiving" the 1 mil IP payments, per/yr, since the sub fall at C6CD.  When the time came to renew, they simply would not go with "forgivness" any longer and SOE basicly had no other choice in the matter anylonger.  LA, I'm sure thought they had a goldmine with TOR, and no longer needed SWG with all of it's problems around.

I have to /agree with some of the LA haters statements that if SWG was up today it would of been doing "better" as the TOR failure would of been the absolute best advertisment for SWG that ever was.  There are posters in this very thread that said they would of tried SWG after TOR.  But, Smed is now convinced that F2P is now the way to go and LA thought they had the ultimate cashcow with TOR so it was really never going to even get a chance of happening.  No meeting of the minds there at all.

I suppose it was pretty obvious until May 2011, but when the game came back online after the breach and with the free CTS along with the free 45 days, the populations quadrupled. May/June 2011 was the best time I had in SWG for a long time, and then they go pull the plug when it was reviving? To not give it one or two months after that, to see if people subbed or not, and give 4 months notice instead of 6, just seems dumb to me. They potentially lost out on loads of subs, and more than what they had in a while.

Now SWTOR is heading into the same end, and I doubt it will have 100k subs by the end of the year.

As for the Zombies, there seriously was no pronlem with that other than the thought, and another reason for the SWG haters to bash for SWG - 1)  Death Troopers was SW canon and 2) It waa in the corner of dathomir and out of the way and 3) It is not much difference to the Rakgouls in SWTOR. The Meat Lump theme park should have gotten the most complaints as that was not SW canon, that was an extended joke that came from the SWG forums.

Star Trek Online - Best Free MMORPG of 2012
Do not take peoples opinion for the truth, search the internet to see if it is true

  Esquire1980

Apprentice Member

Joined: 8/12/07
Posts: 526

7/11/12 2:05:29 PM#115
Originally posted by superniceguy
Originally posted by Esquire1980
Originally posted by superniceguy
Originally posted by ktanner3
Originally posted by Icewhite
Originally posted by MosesZD

Warhammer has gone from 100 to 2 servers.   They haven't pulled the plug.   Heck, they're even doing some kind expansion or development work (which IMO illustrates the Fallacy of Sunk Costs) on it in some hopes of making another go at it...

We've never really seen a game "come back" from the bottom before, but we have seen innumerable games cling to life for years.  It just goes to show how very little a working mmo needs (income) to survive indefinitely.  Look at those old classics (declared 'dead' years ago) that are working towards a second decade.

Gamer spectators talk only about millions of players or fail, all or nothing.  But that isn't how the real world of mmo producers works, never has been.

This.

-No company keeps a game going when it isn't making a profit..

-No company will shut a game down when  it's making profit.

I'v enever played UO, but there is obviously some one that is or else it would have been shut down by now. The final nail for TOR will be when the license is up for renewal and EA/bioware decides that it  isn't worth keeping.  Nothing more nothing less. 

 

 

Actually SOE kept EQmac going, and that does not make a profit. SWG was making a profit and it got shut down, otherwise they would have given 1-3 months notice for closure (instead of 6) if it was not making money. There was definately some conttract/dealing with SWG and SWTOR which made SWG get shut down regardless how well it was doing or was going to do. SWG having 6 months notice and gets shut down as SWTORs launches is just too coincindental

SOE can keep games going even if not making a profit as long as their other games are making enough money to support them.

Nothing makes sense where LA is concerned.

Actualy, as a long term player of SWG myself, the signs were all there.  The point of "SOE giving up on SWG" was after the failure of C6CD thru GU-Whatever and the hiring and removal of Lorin Jameison (Deadmeat) as the SWG producer.  DM came in with yet another NGE type plan to "save the game" only this time doing the deed in increments instead of 1 large patch.  His year long plan failed, just the same as CU and NGE did when the same exact design of CHANGES came into view.  Before C6CD, Smed annouced he had "over 100K" subs to SWG.  After C6CD and even after C7 and C8 (which were addition CHANGES and done well actualy) the playerbase was estimating 30K subs.  The problem was C6 that CHANGED everything yet again.  DM was "promoted" to get him out of there, the producer for the upcoming "Clone Wars" was brought in as nothing more than on the job training (which he gave us zombies) and when CW was ready, he was pulled and T2 took over and added producer responsibiltys onto his existing job.  (letting the contract run out without any more costs)

The decision to close SWG was made at the point of DM's pulling as producer.

On the MMORPG.com vet refuge forums, it was stated, back then (above) that LA was "forgiving" the 1 mil IP payments, per/yr, since the sub fall at C6CD.  When the time came to renew, they simply would not go with "forgivness" any longer and SOE basicly had no other choice in the matter anylonger.  LA, I'm sure thought they had a goldmine with TOR, and no longer needed SWG with all of it's problems around.

I have to /agree with some of the LA haters statements that if SWG was up today it would of been doing "better" as the TOR failure would of been the absolute best advertisment for SWG that ever was.  There are posters in this very thread that said they would of tried SWG after TOR.  But, Smed is now convinced that F2P is now the way to go and LA thought they had the ultimate cashcow with TOR so it was really never going to even get a chance of happening.  No meeting of the minds there at all.

I suppose it was pretty obvious until May 2011, but when the game came back online after the breach and with the free CTS along with the free 45 days, the populations quadrupled. May/June 2011 was the best time I had in SWG for a long time, and then they go pull the plug when it was reviving? To not give it one or two months after that, to see if people subbed or not, and give 4 months notice instead of 6, just seems dumb to me. They potentially lost out on loads of subs, and more than what they had in a while.

Now SWTOR is heading into the same end, and I doubt it will have 100k subs by the end of the year.

As for the Zombies, there seriously was no pronlem with that other than the thought, and another reason for the SWG haters to bash for SWG - 1)  Death Troopers was SW canon and 2) It waa in the corner of dathomir and out of the way and 3) It is not much difference to the Rakgouls in SWTOR. The Meat Lump theme park should have gotten the most complaints as that was not SW canon, that was an extended joke that came from the SWG forums.

You know, I actualy attribute that rise in subs ALL to T2.  The absolute BEST producer of SWG that the game EVER had.  He talked to the playerbase, he listened, he developed according to the wants of the playerbase, and the game and subs prospered.  Just look at the "secret" progects that he and Hjal were doing such as atmos flight.  Something that had been asked for since JTL.  And JUST 2 guys pulled it off.

I think the SOE devs/managers were just as taken by the announcement as you appearently were.  In fact, they pretty much said that SWG was doing better but they just couldn't understand why.  SOE Austin/San Diego NEVER figured out that if you gave people what they wanted they would have more subs/money.  They were more interested in how to CHANGE the game to make those WoW numbers.  T2 did figure it out tho and acted accordingly.  Little bit of a secret, from way back when, I actualy had convos with T2 about a CU classic server(s) and he was FULL on board with the idea, bugs or not, and tried to get it. In fact, he told me he could have it up in less than 60 days using the old servers, that were still in the rack (Kauri et al) and at hardly ANY cost at all, with just his 2 guy development team.  He got shot down via SOE San Diego.  SWG would of still been up if T2 had taken the reigns long before he did.  T2's problem was, and yours in all probability, was the decision had already been made, way back when.

TOR is just a mess, no other way to put it.  They gave me a free 7 days yesterday in fact, I guess for me to hit the transfer button before they did later on in the summer, so I patched up, loaded in, did the Blackhole dailys, and just logged off and went to STO.  They nerfed my Guardian DPS to no end, my sage as well via healing.  This is the same exact thing that ruined SWG, (NERFs and CHANGES) from some of the same developers in fact, and until BioWare gets rid of these old NGE devs/leads, the game just doesn't have a chance.  I call it the "Blixtev mentality".  "Your just gamers, you don't have a clue, you don't like what I'm CHANGING, you must have a tinfoil hat on".  So, like SWG and Blix, gamers just gathered up their toys, took their money with them, and went home.  As bad as the original NGE was in SWG, TOR is the "Ultimate NGE" design by some of the exact same people.  A recipe for disaster. 

  gervaise1

Elite Member

Joined: 1/17/07
Posts: 604

7/11/12 2:10:09 PM#116

^^^^^SuperniceGuy

Pretty sure that SoE didn't have any say in the matter (unless they wanted to close it).

LA will have asked EA whether they were going to launch in 2011 around Jan-Mar ' 11 (maybe earlier) and once EA said yes LA will have advised SoE that their licence to run SWG was not being renewed - say in April/May. Enough time anyway to allow SoE to prepare their announcement and to give everyone on SWG a "final 6 months".

Now if EA had said no then LA would have renewed SoE's licence for another year and SWTOR would have been launching this year.

Whether EA had to launch in 2011 once they had said yes ...? Maybe they would have been using up their licence period if they hadn't; maybe they would have had to pay a penalty or maybe they just wanted to catch the closure of SWG + the reworked film in Feb. Corners were cut to get SWTOR out of the door at the end.

Either way SoE will not have had any say once LA pulled the IP.

 

  Tarric

Apprentice Member

Joined: 5/16/12
Posts: 7

7/11/12 2:52:39 PM#117
Originally posted by FrodoFragins

The final nail will be Lucas Arts.  I'd put it at close to 80% chance to be the cause.  EA is about 19% and the other 1% is a catch all.

 

LucasArts let SOE dink along for years after the NGE dropped SWG below 100k subs....  SW:TOR has somewhere around 1 million subs.  Anyone thinking LucasArts is going to pull the plug is delusional.  EA won't pull it either.  At roughly 1 million subs this is a very successful game whether users, myself included, want to admit it or not.  I left the game 4 months ago and don't regret it but the bottom line is that it's got 1mil subs and that means it's not going anywhere unless that number drops down into the 100-200k sub range... and even there the game will still be quite profitable... or have you forgotten that EVE Online has been running a profit for over 7 years now on under 300,000 subscribers and, for it's first 5 years, had under 100,000 subs

 

I agree that the game is not great (I unsubbed after all) but saying it's going to die is ridiculous.  Likewise the claim that EA will kill it.... UO is still around with under 200,000 subs and it's run by EA.  Same for Dark Age of Camelot.  I don't see EA pulling the plug unless the game actually becomes un-profitable, which is highly unlikely given the IP and the fact that they're still developing for it.  They're not bashful about closing failures (Earth and Beyond, for example) but if it's cutting a profit it's safe, period.

 
  Valua

Apprentice Member

Joined: 8/08/11
Posts: 521

7/11/12 4:14:07 PM#118
Originally posted by MosesZD
Originally posted by Valua
Originally posted by superniceguy
Originally posted by Valua

 

 

But nothing this year will be the "final nail in the coffin." Expect The Old Republic to be around for at least another year as a sub game, then it'll go F2P if it does as badly as people make out, and then be round forever?

 

I do not think it will go F2P, as they already have the free trials and free play to level 15. EA/Bioware are saying they are "looking at" F2P, but that probably means they are trying to convince LA. LA prevented SOE taking SWG  F2P

I can not see SWTOR working as F2P. They still need more systems in place to keep people playing. People will still play/pay through the game, and when hit 50 will just as likely quit again still. It is better off as it is now - buy the game, play though it in one or two months, and then quit. SWTORs current payment model is cheaper than what F2P will be. People on F2P will probably end up paying more than it is now once hit 50.

 

The thing with F2P though is that it might not keep players for as long as subscription games, but it gets new players in constantly, therefore they can afford to lose people with the rate they gain them.

 

If The Old Republic falls below 300,000 subs I can bet my house on it that it'll go F2P, LA will probably force them too. You have to remember that this game cost 100-200million to make, and they wouldn't have yet even made back that yet, let alone a profit.

 

And we all know what LA is all about, milking the cash cow that is Star Wars. They will go F2P to make any profits they can.

 

Also, I'd just like to point out that LA probably didn't let SoE make SWG F2P because The Old Republic was already in the works, LA would have known they were closing down SWG for at least two years before it shutdown sadly.

 

 

Originally posted by MosesZD

 

Two Star Wars MMO's doesn't work profit wise.

So, by your logic, if Toyota makes cars, all other car manufacturers should just give up because they can't make a profit?    I would suggest you rethink your assertion. 

I've heard MMO's be compared to cars before, which I think it's possibly the stupidest thing I've heard. 

 

Cars are bought by almost every single human in western countries, when they get to a certain age, so that means that there are billions of customers in that market. They need to sell an extreme amount of different cars to cater to the extreme amount of taste from the customers.

 

The MMO market on the other hand is very different, it's occupied by roughly 20-40 million people, 10 million of which play one specific game. There aren't enough players in this genre to have hundreds of MMO's being released a year, let alone two based on the same source material. The majority of those who play anything other than WoW tend to stick to game that are games very similar to WoW, this to me also proves that MMO players aren't as fussed about taste as they are with cars (this may be because they just don't have the option to be though.)

 

End of the day, LA closed SWG because they wanted as little competition as possible for their new game, so having two games based on the same IP doesn't make sense.

 

If Harry Potter was an MMO, and Warner Brothers decided to release a new Harry Potter MMO, it makes perfect sense to close down the initial Harry Potter MMO, not only would those players probably move over to the new Harry Potter MMO, but they've just cut out that little bit of competition too. (I think this is a better comparision, Harry Potter and Star Wars, rather than Cars and MMO's.)

 

Originally posted by MosesZD

MoP, like Cata, will sell between 5 and 5.5 million copies.   It is, however, an EXPANSION PACK, which will (for all reasonable discussion purposes) only be bought by WoW players.   In short, it's being sold to a captive, defined audience and not the general gaming public.

 

 

I read somewhere that Cata actually sold nearly 9 million copies, probably went past that point now, I'll try and find the link. So it would probably make sense for MoP to sell around that many as well. 

 

But on point, WoW players make up for more than half of the western subscription market, and WoW players tend to play other MMO's, they are no exclusive to WoW alone (or well, at least I'm not.) A lot of SWTOR's sub's are WoW players. Therefore Pandaria has a better chance of hurting SWTOR than any other game if those players leave to go back to MoP.

 

Also is MoP is good, then we can imagine most MMO's to fell the burn, with people not wanting to leave WoW soon after an expansion (crazy thought I know.) Also, it's a PvP themed expansion with Pokemon, how can that not attract a massive number of new players?

 

 

 

 

Originally posted by superniceguy

That is a reasonable point of view, although I do not think LA will need to force EA/Bioware as they have already stated that they are looking at F2P. It seems more likely that EA/Bioware will have to persuade LA to let them do it.

SWG F2P would have brought it in more revenue that SWTOR, as people showed they were willing to sub multiple accounts monthly, and spend a fortune in the TCG despite the monthly fee as well. SWG was more set up for F2P than SWTOR is.

If they were not willing to get SWG F2P, then  seems less likely to take SWTOR F2P.

 

SWG had less than 60,000 players toward the end. No way it could possibly have made more money than The Old Republic as new as it is. People like new and shiny themeparks, not old, graphically outdated sandboxes. 

 

SWTOR could easily be set up for F2P, like Lotro, DnD and DCUO. I just hope EA/Bioware is capable of doing it as well as NcSoft, Turbine and SoE.

 

 

 

 

 

  3-4thElf

Apprentice Member

Joined: 6/03/12
Posts: 390

7/11/12 4:19:07 PM#119
Originally posted by Zorgo
Originally posted by MosesZD
Originally posted by Valua

The fact that Mists of Pandaria has the lowest votes shows that this poll is stupid and swarmed by Guild Wars 2 fangurls that believe the game they like will make a massive impact on every single game in the MMO genre.

 

At the end of the day we all should know by now that Pandaria is a massive threat to every game being released this year, as was every other WoW expansion.

 

3v3 PvP and B2P might affect WoW more so than other games in the past, but not by much. 

 

But I think all of the options in the poll will impact ToR negatively combined, just Pandaria will clearly make the biggest impact, nothing will come close to the dent it will make (on any MMO for that matter.)

 

Edit;

 

But nothing this year will be the "final nail in the coffin." Expect The Old Republic to be around for at least another year as a sub game, then it'll go F2P if it does as badly as people make out, and then be round forever?

 

MoP, like Cata, will sell between 5 and 5.5 million copies.   It is, however, an EXPANSION PACK, which will (for all reasonable discussion purposes) only be bought by WoW players.   In short, it's being sold to a captive, defined audience and not the general gaming public.

 

SWTOR and GW2 are competing in the general MMO, non-WoW market.    Which is why GW2 will have more impact on SWTOR than WoW.   Especially as, if only anecdotally, most of the bored WoW players went back to WoW pretty quick because WoW offers what they want and SWTOR doesn't really...

 

 

So what leads you to believe only half of WoW subscribers will buy Panderia? I find that to be a ludicrously low number.

I admit there seems to be more anamosity toward this expansion even from wow players than any before, but still I can't imagine that it is 50% of the population.

Half will right away. I think the stat for WoW and EQ2 both were 2 to 3 years for full expansion intergration. With a loss of 10% possible and another 10% just fine with the base game. Odd I know. But I honestly think there's a large group of people out there that treat WoW like facebook.

a yo ho ho

  Phry

Elite Member

Joined: 7/01/04
Posts: 3799

7/11/12 4:27:29 PM#120
Originally posted by Valua
Originally posted by MosesZD
Originally posted by Valua
Originally posted by superniceguy
Originally posted by Valua

 

 

But nothing this year will be the "final nail in the coffin." Expect The Old Republic to be around for at least another year as a sub game, then it'll go F2P if it does as badly as people make out, and then be round forever?

 

I do not think it will go F2P, as they already have the free trials and free play to level 15. EA/Bioware are saying they are "looking at" F2P, but that probably means they are trying to convince LA. LA prevented SOE taking SWG  F2P

I can not see SWTOR working as F2P. They still need more systems in place to keep people playing. People will still play/pay through the game, and when hit 50 will just as likely quit again still. It is better off as it is now - buy the game, play though it in one or two months, and then quit. SWTORs current payment model is cheaper than what F2P will be. People on F2P will probably end up paying more than it is now once hit 50.

 

The thing with F2P though is that it might not keep players for as long as subscription games, but it gets new players in constantly, therefore they can afford to lose people with the rate they gain them.

 

If The Old Republic falls below 300,000 subs I can bet my house on it that it'll go F2P, LA will probably force them too. You have to remember that this game cost 100-200million to make, and they wouldn't have yet even made back that yet, let alone a profit.

 

And we all know what LA is all about, milking the cash cow that is Star Wars. They will go F2P to make any profits they can.

 

Also, I'd just like to point out that LA probably didn't let SoE make SWG F2P because The Old Republic was already in the works, LA would have known they were closing down SWG for at least two years before it shutdown sadly.

 

 

Originally posted by MosesZD

 

Two Star Wars MMO's doesn't work profit wise.

So, by your logic, if Toyota makes cars, all other car manufacturers should just give up because they can't make a profit?    I would suggest you rethink your assertion. 

I've heard MMO's be compared to cars before, which I think it's possibly the stupidest thing I've heard. 

 

Cars are bought by almost every single human in western countries, when they get to a certain age, so that means that there are billions of customers in that market. They need to sell an extreme amount of different cars to cater to the extreme amount of taste from the customers.

 

The MMO market on the other hand is very different, it's occupied by roughly 20-40 million people, 10 million of which play one specific game. There aren't enough players in this genre to have hundreds of MMO's being released a year, let alone two based on the same source material. The majority of those who play anything other than WoW tend to stick to game that are games very similar to WoW, this to me also proves that MMO players aren't as fussed about taste as they are with cars (this may be because they just don't have the option to be though.)

 

End of the day, LA closed SWG because they wanted as little competition as possible for their new game, so having two games based on the same IP doesn't make sense.

 

If Harry Potter was an MMO, and Warner Brothers decided to release a new Harry Potter MMO, it makes perfect sense to close down the initial Harry Potter MMO, not only would those players probably move over to the new Harry Potter MMO, but they've just cut out that little bit of competition too. (I think this is a better comparision, Harry Potter and Star Wars, rather than Cars and MMO's.)

 

Originally posted by MosesZD

MoP, like Cata, will sell between 5 and 5.5 million copies.   It is, however, an EXPANSION PACK, which will (for all reasonable discussion purposes) only be bought by WoW players.   In short, it's being sold to a captive, defined audience and not the general gaming public.

 

 

I read somewhere that Cata actually sold nearly 9 million copies, probably went past that point now, I'll try and find the link. So it would probably make sense for MoP to sell around that many as well. 

 

But on point, WoW players make up for more than half of the western subscription market, and WoW players tend to play other MMO's, they are no exclusive to WoW alone (or well, at least I'm not.) A lot of SWTOR's sub's are WoW players. Therefore Pandaria has a better chance of hurting SWTOR than any other game if those players leave to go back to MoP.

 

Also is MoP is good, then we can imagine most MMO's to fell the burn, with people not wanting to leave WoW soon after an expansion (crazy thought I know.) Also, it's a PvP themed expansion with Pokemon, how can that not attract a massive number of new players?

 Last time i checked WoW had around 10.2 million active subs, its probably a fair bet that if they all bought Cataclysm and their probably going to be buying MoP, it is so to speak, a captive audience, fortunately WoW subs are among the cheapest out there, which probably means that WoW players are probably subbed to several games at a time, only really question is, will those players buy any other games that come out around the same time as MoP, because im guessing that they'll probably put off that purchase in favour of MoP. Maybe for several months, wouldnt surprise me if any game developer, either made sure to release their game at least 2 months before MoP is released, or postpone it for several months after MoP's release. Would kind of mess up their sales figures otherwise.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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