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Star Wars: The Old Republic

Star Wars: The Old Republic 

General Discussion  » Seems like the game has peaked on XFire - Part 2

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693 posts found
  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10942

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

6/05/12 7:53:52 PM#381


Originally posted by Blackbrrd

Originally posted by lizardbones  

Originally posted by Blackbrrd

Originally posted by lizardbones You are predicting real world results using XFire's numbers. At the same time, you're saying you can't relate XFire's numbers to get real world results. Please explain how this makes sense. Unless your last paragraph wasn't using XFire numbers...in which case why post that little bit of information in this thread?
Well, I haven't actually done any calculation, if I did, I think I would get a get a range between 400k and 1000k. It's such a large range, coming up with a specific number like 420k or 600k is a bit meaningless to me. Even with the margin of error, I can easily see that the trend is downwards.   The reasons why I haven't done any calculations is that I actually don't care what number I get, because the developers sacking developers is something you only do if you are getting a negative return.
See, that's real information. You don't let people go if you're making more money than you really need. Now, in all honestly, is there anyone besides Bioware who didn't think there was going to be fewer subscribers at 6 months after launch compared to launch day? Other than Bioware, I don't think there's anyone who thought there would be more people playing SWToR 6 months after launch compared to launch. Does XFire add more information to that bit of information? Does it add any accuracy to that information?  
Regarding your question about subscribers, Bioware said they needed 500k subscribers (in average over the first year I assume) to break even. With 2million+ sold, and players staying for around 3 months, they have achieved that goal. It's basically impossible to predict how good your game is going to be at player retention before launch. Hell, it was hard even a month after launch.

Anyway, xfire does add some additional information, and currently it's that there is no stop in the downward trend. There has been a slight slowdown though and they might be able to keep enough players to keep a decent number of developers on the game. (Most likely in my opinion).




Look at the chart that Metenso has been keeping up with. SWToR's players are stable. They're even increasing slightly. That doesn't jive with what you're saying. If you're going to give credence to XFire's numbers, give credence to all of them.

I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10942

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

6/05/12 8:02:45 PM#382


Originally posted by Sandbox

Originally posted by lizardbones

Originally posted by Sandbox

Originally posted by lizardbones
If the data were actually good, you could use 1 data point and get something related to reality. The numbers either reflect reality, or they don't. XFire's numbers do not reflect reality. If XFire's information had anything at all to do with reality, you wouldn't probably get good numbers, you would get good numbers. You're trying to say you're not using the numbers because you're using the 'trends'. Where do the 'trends' come from if not XFire's numbers? You are predicting real world results using XFire's numbers. At the same time, you're saying you can't relate XFire's numbers to get real world results. Please explain how this makes sense. Unless your last paragraph wasn't using XFire numbers...in which case why post that little bit of information in this thread?


The reality is not linear and you have the exceptional behavior at boarders. The reality is more complex than taking one or two points and make a linear projection. It’s math, functions and statistic. Anyone with suitable education and experience of working with this kind of figures would recognize the patterns.
Edit: I guess you are the kind of person that back in the days would argue with all your heart that the earth was flat, because that’s how the reality is.



Anyone with a suitable education would know that you don't look at graphs and 'see' the patterns. That's a load cr@p for which we can thank movies and television. The patterns, if they existed, and if they were real would not require finding. If the numbers could be reconciled with reality, they would be. If the trends could be reconciled with reality, they would be. They can't be reconciled with reality by any repeatable method. Not even for the same game. XFire numbers are just noise. If the information was at all valuable, XFire would be selling it. Just the fact that this information is free should tell you it's not worth selling, and it's not worth buying. The information is worthless*. * A couple people have pulled useful information out of XFire. If nothing else, I'm reasonably sure they've pulled some entertainment out of them.

Your last post is a big denial because you have no clue about how to apply math and statistics on any figures and that’s why you don't see the "patterns".

Your conclusion: Since Xfire doesn’t sell their information it must be wrong.

Guess what.... they do. By advertisement.




Hmmm. It's not denial. XFire's numbers can't be applied to anything in the world. Pick any time frame of statistics from XFire, and you have to use a different set of assumptions to get them to reconcile with reality. Pick any range of data, and what one range of data says is different from what another range of data says. Pick any game, and the assumptions made to get the numbers to reconcile with reality are different than the assumptions used for any other game. Nothing about XFire's numbers reconciles with reality without making up some assumptions. XFire's trends can't be reconciled with reality.

The only available option to make XFire reconcile with reality is to abandon any sort of math and just 'see' the patterns. That isn't statistical science. That isn't science at all.

They aren't selling their statistical information that they are showing the public through advertising. That doesn't even make sense. They are getting people to use their product through the features they've developed or bought. Namely, the chat overlay, Facebook integration, etc. The stuff they advertise on their home page. Then, they sell the people to advertisers. People using XFire are shown targeted advertisements. That's what they are selling.

** edit **
Sometimes I really don't like MMORPG.com's post editor.

I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  Vandarix

Novice Member

Joined: 7/30/04
Posts: 117

6/05/12 8:04:57 PM#383

Epic youtube video about the rise and fall of the TORTANIC

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuzc4jgwlT8

  gervaise1

Elite Member

Joined: 1/17/07
Posts: 1432

6/05/12 10:11:23 PM#384

Lizardbones is going a little further than trends - and that's OK and it is clever. It is dangerous and maybe the boat is being pushed out a little far but:

The assumption is that an XFire player is as likely to play SWTOR as EVE; I am OK with that. It won't be totally accurate because the games are not the same but that just goes into the error margin.

I haven't checked the exact numbers - which vary as we know depending on what day tou look at them but I'm going to assume it is a reasonable estimate. So - based on knowm EVE subs this gives an estimate of 4M - and we know that EA announced a maximum of 1.7M subs.

The big unknowm of course is the ratio of subs to active players. Lizardbones has dealt with a part of this looking at the average hours - again there will be a bit of varation due to days of the week etc. of course with an older game you may just get people who play on a Monday, some on a Tuesdayy however etc. We can't say though so ignore it: this is a peg in the ground.

Now as Eve, as an old game, may have some 'sleeper' accounts - folks who basically only play once a week for an hour or whatever. Even SWTOR will have some - people who subbed for 6 months but have now stopped playing. It is a possibility but again we don't know. A lot of people say that there are and there certainly it was the reason that Funcom gave when Microsoft ended collecting subs for AC years back and people had to actively resub. Ditto WAR in EU when EA took direct control numbers appeared to plummet. But we don'y jnow.

So if Eve is accurate etc. and the games are comparable then XFire would suggest 4M, in reality it is only 1.7M. A factor of 2.35 or so. Not brilliant if 100% correct but not way, way off. More interesting is the suggestion that SWTOR may be doing worse than XFire suggests.

I tend to play safe and assume it is doing better but they went with th etype of free trial with AR when the subs were under 300k. (300 k being what they announced so lower when they went with the trial).

 

Good job. We know there are roundings and errors and so forth but in a "is it in the ball park sense" fine.

Caveat: we are pushing th eboat out again when this is done ogf course.    

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10942

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

6/05/12 10:54:43 PM#385


Originally posted by gervaise1
Lizardbones is going a little further than trends - and that's OK and it is clever. It is dangerous and maybe the boat is being pushed out a little far but:

The assumption is that an XFire player is as likely to play SWTOR as EVE; I am OK with that. It won't be totally accurate because the games are not the same but that just goes into the error margin.

I haven't checked the exact numbers - which vary as we know depending on what day tou look at them but I'm going to assume it is a reasonable estimate. So - based on knowm EVE subs this gives an estimate of 4M - and we know that EA announced a maximum of 1.7M subs.

The big unknowm of course is the ratio of subs to active players. Lizardbones has dealt with a part of this looking at the average hours - again there will be a bit of varation due to days of the week etc. of course with an older game you may just get people who play on a Monday, some on a Tuesdayy however etc. We can't say though so ignore it: this is a peg in the ground.

Now as Eve, as an old game, may have some 'sleeper' accounts - folks who basically only play once a week for an hour or whatever. Even SWTOR will have some - people who subbed for 6 months but have now stopped playing. It is a possibility but again we don't know. A lot of people say that there are and there certainly it was the reason that Funcom gave when Microsoft ended collecting subs for AC years back and people had to actively resub. Ditto WAR in EU when EA took direct control numbers appeared to plummet. But we don'y jnow.

So if Eve is accurate etc. and the games are comparable then XFire would suggest 4M, in reality it is only 1.7M. A factor of 2.35 or so. Not brilliant if 100% correct but not way, way off. More interesting is the suggestion that SWTOR may be doing worse than XFire suggests.

I tend to play safe and assume it is doing better but they went with th etype of free trial with AR when the subs were under 300k. (300 k being what they announced so lower when they went with the trial).

 

Good job. We know there are roundings and errors and so forth but in a "is it in the ball park sense" fine.

Caveat: we are pushing th eboat out again when this is done ogf course.    




I suspect you've missed the point of the 4 million players bit. I'm not saying that SWToR had 4 million players. I'm saying if you give any credence to XFire's numbers or XFire's trends, you end up with ridiculous results.

The response to this is that you can't take XFire numbers or trends at face value...you just have to 'see' the trends. Apparently this is supposed to happen without using any actual methods and especially without using any math. You're not supposed to relate XFire numbers to real world numbers, but at the same time you're supposed to make lots of estimates about real world values. Again, either without using any actual math, or if you do use some procedure to get that estimate, you sure as heck don't explain the procedure you're using. See that line representing XFire users playing SWToR? Well, just because that is a single line doesn't mean you can use the same methods of estimation at the beginning of the line as you would at the end of the line or the middle of the line for that matter. You're also supposed to remove the 5% of outliers in your head and that will somehow fix the numbers so they relate to reality. Which is something of a feat since we can't see the outliers. That, apparently, is how it's done.

As far as the method you've highlighted goes, we still end up with ridiculous values. It works in one spot if you make assumptions, but it breaks down when you move away from that spot in time. You end up having to change assumptions in other places to make it work. There is just no consistent or repeatable method to get XFire numbers to make sense. The numbers are nonsense.

I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  Blackbrrd

Novice Member

Joined: 2/24/09
Posts: 812

6/06/12 5:27:25 AM#386
Originally posted by lizardbones

Look at the chart that Metenso has been keeping up with. SWToR's players are stable. They're even increasing slightly. That doesn't jive with what you're saying. If you're going to give credence to XFire's numbers, give credence to all of them.

 

The number of xfire-players is at 1426, which is an all time low.

You are probably looking at hours played, which I find less useful, primarily because more time played doesn't mean more players.

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10942

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

6/06/12 7:02:49 AM#387


Originally posted by Blackbrrd

Originally posted by lizardbones Look at the chart that Metenso has been keeping up with. SWToR's players are stable. They're even increasing slightly. That doesn't jive with what you're saying. If you're going to give credence to XFire's numbers, give credence to all of them.  
The number of xfire-players is at 1426, which is an all time low.

You are probably looking at hours played, which I find less useful, primarily because more time played doesn't mean more players.




If you're going to bother responding, at least make the effort to look at the same set of information I'm viewing. Metenso's chart, which he has posted every week for many weeks shows the number of players. The trend for SWToR in the past 4 weeks is up.

I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  Sandbox

Advanced Member

Joined: 8/23/06
Posts: 309

6/06/12 7:24:20 AM#388
Originally posted by lizardbones
 The trend for SWToR in the past 4 weeks is up.

 

Hmm, so 1426 is greater than 2497...

I now do understand why we see things differently.

  komobo

Apprentice Member

Joined: 8/24/08
Posts: 145

6/06/12 9:02:38 AM#389

While lizardbones expertly demonstrates his lack of understanding of applied statistics and how firmly his head is stuck up SWTORS' behind, i am sure the OP of this thread is thoroughly thankful for the constant source of bumps that is lizardbones. It is great how we all contribute...

Anyway keep up the interesting work Metentos.

 

 

* Waves at Pushkina *

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10942

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

6/06/12 1:04:48 PM#390


Originally posted by Sandbox

Originally posted by lizardbones
The trend for SWToR in the past 4 weeks is up.


Hmm, so 1426 is greater than 2497...
I now do understand why we see things differently.



This is your post earlier in the thread.


Originally posted by Sandbox
Did you not understand any of the "not's" in the post you just quoted?
4 millions.... I assume you have no other response to the fact that xfire is measuring trends, not absolute numbers, and now you are trolling with fantasy numbers.



If XFire is only measuring 'trends', why do you keep bringing up a single number*? I was under the impression that single numbers didn't matter. Make up your mind. Either XFire's job is to display trends and the individual numbers don't matter, or it measures trends and the individual numbers do matter.

If XFire only displays trends, then it has exactly 3 output values; "Less", "The Same" or "More". In that case, displaying the individual numbers makes no sense. The % of the rise or fall is irrelevant. The % of rise or fall in one game's numbers is not relevant to the % of rise or fall in another game's numbers. In this case, it is not possible that anyone has calculated or predicted anything using XFire's numbers because the numbers are known to be bad and should be ignored.

If XFire measures trends, then the individual numbers do matter, the percentage of rise and fall in the numbers does matter and it's wrong. These values cannot be reconciled with reality.

* The number isn't on Metenso's chart yet. When it's added to the chart with all the other numbers, I'll take a look at it.

I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  fadis

Novice Member

Joined: 12/16/09
Posts: 473

6/06/12 2:48:12 PM#391

1417 for Tuesday AND the game is ranked 14th overall... #15 is Aion.

 

 

  maniacfox

Novice Member

Joined: 8/04/06
Posts: 161

6/06/12 2:52:11 PM#392

Seriously? XFire peaked on XFire about 5 years ago, who the hell still uses it?

  Metentso

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 8/14/10
Posts: 1458

6/06/12 4:06:41 PM#393
Originally posted by maniacfox

Seriously? XFire peaked on XFire about 5 years ago, who the hell still uses it?

1417 SWTOR players yesterday.

  JNA0349

Novice Member

Joined: 6/17/06
Posts: 23

6/06/12 4:53:19 PM#394

guys it's not hard.

 

everybody does not use xfire.

 

simple solution.

 

look at other guys and use those as standards.

 

if swtor > other games = swtor doing good

if swtor < other games = swtor doing poorly.

 

this isn't difficult.

 

if swtor has 1,000,000 players yipie;

if on average every other game has 20,000,000 players....

what if on average other games have 20 players...

 

called standards. simple.

  Sandbox

Advanced Member

Joined: 8/23/06
Posts: 309

6/06/12 5:07:43 PM#395
Originally posted by lizardbones

 


Originally posted by Sandbox

Originally posted by lizardbones
The trend for SWToR in the past 4 weeks is up.



Hmm, so 1426 is greater than 2497...
I now do understand why we see things differently.



This is your post earlier in the thread.

 

 


Originally posted by Sandbox
Did you not understand any of the "not's" in the post you just quoted?
4 millions.... I assume you have no other response to the fact that xfire is measuring trends, not absolute numbers, and now you are trolling with fantasy numbers.



If XFire is only measuring 'trends', why do you keep bringing up a single number*? I was under the impression that single numbers didn't matter. Make up your mind. Either XFire's job is to display trends and the individual numbers don't matter, or it measures trends and the individual numbers do matter.

If XFire only displays trends, then it has exactly 3 output values; "Less", "The Same" or "More". In that case, displaying the individual numbers makes no sense. The % of the rise or fall is irrelevant. The % of rise or fall in one game's numbers is not relevant to the % of rise or fall in another game's numbers. In this case, it is not possible that anyone has calculated or predicted anything using XFire's numbers because the numbers are known to be bad and should be ignored.

If XFire measures trends, then the individual numbers do matter, the percentage of rise and fall in the numbers does matter and it's wrong. These values cannot be reconciled with reality.

* The number isn't on Metenso's chart yet. When it's added to the chart with all the other numbers, I'll take a look at it.

 

The "4 millions" was brought up by YOU, don't you dare put me responsible for YOUR predicted figures, that's a lie. I quoted and commented on YOUR post, repeated below.
Originally posted by lizardbones
That would mean SWToR started with something like 4 million players.
 
And, as everyone that followed this thread has seen, I have never presented any calculations, predictions or absolute numbers about subscribers.  You on the other hand...

 

I did comment the xfire figures, those are raw data directly from the source we are discussing, no invention of mine.

If you need to resort to lying and pick text out of context to feel good, so be it. I'm done discussing with you.

You have certainly proven your point...

  Monorojo

Novice Member

Joined: 6/19/08
Posts: 422

6/06/12 6:09:21 PM#396
Originally posted by lizardbones

 


Originally posted by Vrika

Originally posted by lizardbones  

Originally posted by Vrika

Originally posted by Praetalus I have been playing MMO's since about 2001. I have never used xfire. I have been in countless guilds in the past 11 years.... I have never been asked to use xfire or talked about xfire in guild. 
Statistic 101: Sample needs to be random and large enough, but it doesn't need to be significant compared to whole population. Same sample size gives same accuracy whether you're trying to trying to find out statistics about Milkwaukee's population or China's population (assuming the sample size is significantly smaller than Milwaukee's population).   You don't need to have used X-Fire, none of your friends need to have used it. If there are two million of players and one in a thousand uses it that'll allready give X-Fire sample of 2 000 and statistical margin of error of only a few procents. But if the game is very small, let's say Mortal online, the statistical margin of error would be large even if 50% of Mortal Online's players used X-Fire.
You left out the whole bit about the sample being carefully selected to not show a bias, or barring that, randomly selected from the population. Neither of these applies to XFire's users.  
I admit that it's not random or carefully selected to not show bias. I was just trying to say that the sample is large enough, not that it wouldn't have other problems.


With no way to calculate a margin of error, the samples are either 'good' or 'bad'. We don't know the population for most of the games, so we don't know the sample sizes' relation to the overall populations. SWToR is a possible exception, but you would have to believe Bioware's numbers. We do know that the samples are not randomly selected and they are not selected to eliminate bias. XFire's samples are just 'bad'.

 

Correct. End of discussion. Xfire is a bad sample no matter how you slice it. Not random, no way to measure margin of error, nothing tangible whatsoever.

  JoeyMMO

Novice Member

Joined: 10/09/11
Posts: 1334

To busy playing GW2 to post much around here... *shrug*

6/06/12 6:10:29 PM#397
Originally posted by maniacfox

Seriously? XFire peaked on XFire about 5 years ago, who the hell still uses it?

 Well, back when it was ranked the forth most played game, did you then also think nobody used Xfire? When it's down to 14th spot, now you insinuate that "nobody" uses it? Poor excuses don't disguise the fact that TOR is a sinking ship.

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10942

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

6/06/12 6:36:45 PM#398


Originally posted by Sandbox

Originally posted by lizardbones  

Originally posted by Sandbox

Originally posted by lizardbones The trend for SWToR in the past 4 weeks is up. Hmm, so 1426 is greater than 2497... I now do understand why we see things differently. This is your post earlier in the thread.     Originally posted by Sandbox Did you not understand any of the "not's" in the post you just quoted? 4 millions.... I assume you have no other response to the fact that xfire is measuring trends, not absolute numbers, and now you are trolling with fantasy numbers.
If XFire is only measuring 'trends', why do you keep bringing up a single number*? I was under the impression that single numbers didn't matter. Make up your mind. Either XFire's job is to display trends and the individual numbers don't matter, or it measures trends and the individual numbers do matter. If XFire only displays trends, then it has exactly 3 output values; "Less", "The Same" or "More". In that case, displaying the individual numbers makes no sense. The % of the rise or fall is irrelevant. The % of rise or fall in one game's numbers is not relevant to the % of rise or fall in another game's numbers. In this case, it is not possible that anyone has calculated or predicted anything using XFire's numbers because the numbers are known to be bad and should be ignored. If XFire measures trends, then the individual numbers do matter, the percentage of rise and fall in the numbers does matter and it's wrong. These values cannot be reconciled with reality. * The number isn't on Metenso's chart yet. When it's added to the chart with all the other numbers, I'll take a look at it.  
The "4 millions" was brought up by YOU, don't you dare put me responsible for YOUR predicted figures, that's a lie. I quoted and commented on YOUR post, repeated below. Originally posted by lizardbones That would mean SWToR started with something like 4 million players.
  And, as everyone that followed this thread has seen, I have never presented any calculations, predictions or absolute numbers about subscribers.  You on the other hand... 

I did comment the xfire figures, those are raw data directly from the source we are discussing, no invention of mine.

If you need to resort to lying and pick text out of context to feel good, so be it. I'm done discussing with you.

You have certainly proven your point...




The 4 millions was brought up by me. I'm reasonably sure that there's nobody in this thread who would attribute that to you. If what you posted was misleading, that's not my problem. I at least did you the courtesy of copying your entire post.

If you're going to use any individual XFire numbers as a reference point, then the numbers at some point have to make some sort of sense compared to reality. That includes using a percentage of change from one point in time to another. The numbers do not make any sort of sense and cannot be reconciled with reality with any degree of accuracy whatsoever. Using the numbers gets you crazy values like SWToR starting with 4 million subscribers.

An accurate reflect of what XFire says, would be a chart with one word on it. That word would be "Less", "No Change" or "More". You could even go so far as to have a chart of each week's players, and each week your data point would go up 1, go down 1 or not change position. That would display the trend with all the accuracy that XFire can bring. It would display the trend on a weekly basis without actually trying to measure it, which XFire cannot do.

I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10942

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

6/06/12 6:38:06 PM#399


Originally posted by JoeyMMO

Originally posted by maniacfox Seriously? XFire peaked on XFire about 5 years ago, who the hell still uses it?
 Well, back when it was ranked the forth most played game, did you then also think nobody used Xfire? When it's down to 14th spot, now you insinuate that "nobody" uses it? Poor excuses don't disguise the fact that TOR is a sinking ship.



I didn't think it was any more accurate then than I think it is now. It was nice to see the game doing well somewhere, but that didn't validate XFire's numbers.

I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  Blackbrrd

Novice Member

Joined: 2/24/09
Posts: 812

6/06/12 7:20:26 PM#400
Originally posted by lizardbones

 


Originally posted by Blackbrrd

Originally posted by lizardbones Look at the chart that Metenso has been keeping up with. SWToR's players are stable. They're even increasing slightly. That doesn't jive with what you're saying. If you're going to give credence to XFire's numbers, give credence to all of them.  
The number of xfire-players is at 1426, which is an all time low.

 

You are probably looking at hours played, which I find less useful, primarily because more time played doesn't mean more players.




If you're going to bother responding, at least make the effort to look at the same set of information I'm viewing. Metenso's chart, which he has posted every week for many weeks shows the number of players. The trend for SWToR in the past 4 weeks is up.

 

You are either looking at some faulty data or are reading them wrong. The chart you are refering to is saying the same thing I am saying: http://i50.tinypic.com/2pzgu8p.png

The number of xfire players 4 weeks previous to the number for yesterday is 2624 (I might have missed by +/- 2 days).

A drop from 2624 xfire players to 1426 xfire players in 4 weeks is a extremely steep decent.

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