Originally posted by dontadow

Originally posted by Pivotelite

GW2 will trump SWTOR in box sales, Diablo 3 is not an MMO but will easily trump GW2 and already has.

 

That's about all there is to say in here, rolling out.

lol, love that you had to tell the OP to read his own comment. 

At first I said this 

I still think that the IP an marketing of EA is going to make SWTOR the winner of box sales (or who has already).  I think their at 3 or 4 miillion, whether they have that many subscribers, that's going to be doubtful.  

Thinking about the recent layoffs and EA's placement of SWTOR in their strategy, i don't think they will have the total average players on lock for long.

There are going to be a half dozen games that are going to outsell guild wars this year.  I can't see any MMOs on the horizon that is going to have the power behind it.   I even think that SWTOR  and TSW are going to encourage many studios to use their extra funding to make sure the game is as polished as Rift upon release . I think some games go off the case that they will eventually make it up and underestimated what people are willing to accept.  

2.32 million units sold.  2.4 million units shipped.    Sales have declined every week wihtout a break and they're down to 10Kish/week, or about 40K a month.   Those numbers are going to drop again because, honestly, they've pretty much picked all the fruit off that tree...

I suspect, in a few months they'll have 'WoW like sales" of just a few thousand per month.   I don't see, at this point, their breaking 3 million in sales.  Never mind hitting 4 million.     Not when they just laid off 200 employees and all the servers, but 10, are dead...

How much is Diablo 3 already? 6 million? 

Originally posted by FredomSekerZ

Originally posted by Homitu

For the first time in a very long time, I actually expect GW2 to grow post-release as word of mouth gets out about just how good the game is.  Few MMOs have managed that over the past decade as most fight merely to retain current subcribers.  

This, of course, doesn't mean the naysayers will go away :p

It's very rare for general video games even to grow much after release, not to meantion mmo's. It's not that it's not possible, but mostly it's the people who are really into the game. The word of mouth thing only works, IMO, if the game is really unkown. GW2 is already well known in the mmorpg community and alot in pc community, but i just don't see it growing into the overall market, like console players and all around people like casual players.

That's not true.   Good MMOs do grow for months, if not years.   All of these grew for at least 9 months before slowing down then contracting while others grew for years.:

WoW.  GW1.  EQ2.  DAOC.   LOTRO.   Eve.   Ultima Online.   Liineage.  Lineage II.  Runescape.   Dofus.  FFXI.  Even Aion grew until the grind wore too many people out. 

Bad MMOs do contract, and they do it right out of the gate:

AoC.   STO.  APB.   DDO.   Warhammer.   SWTOR.   Rift.  PotBS.

Originally posted by MosesZD

Originally posted by FredomSekerZ

Originally posted by Homitu

For the first time in a very long time, I actually expect GW2 to grow post-release as word of mouth gets out about just how good the game is.  Few MMOs have managed that over the past decade as most fight merely to retain current subcribers.  

This, of course, doesn't mean the naysayers will go away :p

It's very rare for general video games even to grow much after release, not to meantion mmo's. It's not that it's not possible, but mostly it's the people who are really into the game. The word of mouth thing only works, IMO, if the game is really unkown. GW2 is already well known in the mmorpg community and alot in pc community, but i just don't see it growing into the overall market, like console players and all around people like casual players.

 

That's not true.   Good MMOs do grow for months, if not years.   All of these grew for at least 9 months before slowing down then contracting while others grew for years.:

 

WoW.  GW1.  EQ2.  DAOC.   LOTRO.   Eve.   Ultima Online.   Liineage.  Lineage II.  Runescape.   Dofus.  FFXI.  Even Aion grew until the grind wore too many people out. 

 

Bad MMOs do contract, and they do it right out of the gate:

 

AoC.   STO.  APB.   DDO.   Warhammer.   SWTOR.   Rift.  PotBS.

 

 

Rift hasn't contracted and is not a bad MMO - it is 1 yr older than TOR which is contracting after3-4 months.

Originally posted by Kalfer

How much is Diablo 3 already? 6 million? 

Don't know from the charts.   Week ending May 19th hasn't been tallied and posted.   Won't know until Monday.

But this article says 6.5 million:

Blizzard have announced that Diablo 3 has sold over 6.5 million copies in its first week alone, with 4.7 million of those sales coming on the FIRST DAY. And you wonder why you had an Error 37.

http://www.co-optimus.com/article/8303/diablo-3-breaks-pc-sales-records-in-first-week-first-patch-released-too.html

Originally posted by Kalfer

How much is Diablo 3 already? 6 million? 

No offense, but there are better topics / subforums to ask this because it's completely irrelvant to the topic since D3 isn't an mmo, not even remotely simmilar to it.

Originally posted by botrytis

Originally posted by MosesZD

Originally posted by FredomSekerZ

Originally posted by Homitu

For the first time in a very long time, I actually expect GW2 to grow post-release as word of mouth gets out about just how good the game is.  Few MMOs have managed that over the past decade as most fight merely to retain current subcribers.  

This, of course, doesn't mean the naysayers will go away :p

It's very rare for general video games even to grow much after release, not to meantion mmo's. It's not that it's not possible, but mostly it's the people who are really into the game. The word of mouth thing only works, IMO, if the game is really unkown. GW2 is already well known in the mmorpg community and alot in pc community, but i just don't see it growing into the overall market, like console players and all around people like casual players.

 

That's not true.   Good MMOs do grow for months, if not years.   All of these grew for at least 9 months before slowing down then contracting while others grew for years.:

 

WoW.  GW1.  EQ2.  DAOC.   LOTRO.   Eve.   Ultima Online.   Liineage.  Lineage II.  Runescape.   Dofus.  FFXI.  Even Aion grew until the grind wore too many people out. 

 

Bad MMOs do contract, and they do it right out of the gate:

 

AoC.   STO.  APB.   DDO.   Warhammer.   SWTOR.   Rift.  PotBS.

 

 

Rift hasn't contracted and is not a bad MMO - it is 1 yr older than TOR which is contracting after3-4 months.

Don't act like a SWTOR fanboy.  Irrational opinions to the contrary, Rift has contracted.      It does, IMO, have a chance at rebound.   But pretending it hasn't contracted is just BS.

I mean, seriosly, they did all those server mergers for a reason.  They went try-before-you-buy for a reason.  They went deep discount for a reason.   It wasn't because things were growing and they just, out of the goodness of their hearts, wanted people to sponge off them.

XFIRE Game Rank : 74

Up from 1 yesterday

Highest Rank: 5 on 2011-03-31

Publisher : Trion Worlds

Release Date : 2011-3-1

Genre : Massively Multiplayer Online

http://beta.xfire.com/games/rft

You don't go from #5 to #75 because you stayed the same...

Originally posted by MosesZD

Originally posted by TwoThreeFour

Originally posted by Puremallace

Rift has sold close to 2 million boxes to be honest. It is not hard when they price the game at $5. Pay to play games are about the sub fee. Buy to play games are about th box sales and cash shop.

 

It is pretty damn easy to estimate to be honest considering Guild Wars sold close to 7 million. Take a game that is hyped up to be UO 2.0, DAoC 2.0 + free to play after you buy the box and my guess would be 2-3million sold easily.

The original Guild Wars did not sell close to 7 millions. That number counts the major "content packs"  individually. You are welcome to though to show me how many bought Guild Wars Prophecies (the original). 

 

Edit:

Buying the "content packs" is analogous to buying expansion packs and paying subscription. It measures how much players they have retained.

 

Last I checked the 'to-date' figures It sold 6.5 million base units.   I don't include expansions because many of them became bundled with the base-game, so I just count the base-only in those cases.   

 

I will certainly say that purchases have been pretty slow since 2009.   They've only sold 500K combo packs since then.   And those are fairly heavily discounted, down to $20 for all last time I saw one.

 

Still, pretending it didn't sell a lot of units...   Ok.  Sure.  Whatever makes you happy...

 

I am using http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_PC_video_games, which is not the most reliable source, but you are welcome to show a more accurate source which explicitily remarks that it is "base units" so that buying prophecies and one of the content packs still only counts as one and not as several.

agree, its difficult to count unique players

when Guild Wars announced 2 million a year later, Factions was already released

http://www.guildwars.com/events/press/releases/

 there was no bundle packs on the Factions launch  - that happened later

when GW announced 3 million, Nightfall had already been released for 2 months