Originally posted by thekid1

I think GW2 will have over a million players 6 months after release and box sales should be 5 million over the years easily.

 

You could very well be correct but I would probably bet your way under on the numbers there... Has been a lot of talk that they already sold close to a million prepurchases based on the size of the BWE and Stress Test recently.

For the first time in a very long time, I actually expect GW2 to grow post-release as word of mouth gets out about just how good the game is.  Few MMOs have managed that over the past decade as most fight merely to retain current subcribers.  

This, of course, doesn't mean the naysayers will go away :p

Originally posted by Homitu

For the first time in a very long time, I actually expect GW2 to grow post-release as word of mouth gets out about just how good the game is.  Few MMOs have managed that over the past decade as most fight merely to retain current subcribers.  

This, of course, doesn't mean the naysayers will go away :p

I really hope so, and hopefully the naysayers will atleast give it a shot. =P

Originally posted by sammyeli

Originally posted by NeoZcar2

Originally posted by sammyeli

I know it shouldn't be compared to D3 but it looks like they have sold around  6.3 mil in a week, atleast thats what blizzard is saying I guess.

They havent sold 6.3 million in a week. They have sold 6.3 million in the last year ever since they first offered the free DIablo 3 with purchase of annual WoW pass crap... Also every WoW player who purchased a Annual pass without any intention of playing D3 is considered a Diablo 3 purchase.

Ahh I see ok thanks for the clarification.

One thing you have to remember any time you are looking at a Blizzard product is that every single number they release publicly is grossly exxagerated due to shady bookkeeping. Just like they claim there is 10+million people subscribed to WoW... But their numbers include both the free to lvl 20 guest accounts and the 6+ million players in China who only spend about 2 - 5$ US per month to play. Because their definition of subscription is any active account... Which includes the pay per hour accounts(chinese), free game time accounts, guest accounts, and regular subscriptions.

Originally posted by Pivotelite

GW2 will trump SWTOR in box sales, Diablo 3 is not an MMO but will easily trump GW2 and already has.

 

That's about all there is to say in here, rolling out.

lol, love that you had to tell the OP to read his own comment. 

At first I said this 

I still think that the IP an marketing of EA is going to make SWTOR the winner of box sales (or who has already).  I think their at 3 or 4 miillion, whether they have that many subscribers, that's going to be doubtful.  

Thinking about the recent layoffs and EA's placement of SWTOR in their strategy, i don't think they will have the total average players on lock for long.

There are going to be a half dozen games that are going to outsell guild wars this year.  I can't see any MMOs on the horizon that is going to have the power behind it.   I even think that SWTOR  and TSW are going to encourage many studios to use their extra funding to make sure the game is as polished as Rift upon release . I think some games go off the case that they will eventually make it up and underestimated what people are willing to accept.  

Originally posted by NeoZcar2

Originally posted by thekid1

I think GW2 will have over a million players 6 months after release and box sales should be 5 million over the years easily.

 

You could very well be correct but I would probably bet your way under on the numbers there... Has been a lot of talk that they already sold close to a million prepurchases based on the size of the BWE and Stress Test recently.

Ohyeah sure, I wouldn't be surprised if 2 million people would play 6 months after release.

Originally posted by Homitu

For the first time in a very long time, I actually expect GW2 to grow post-release as word of mouth gets out about just how good the game is.  Few MMOs have managed that over the past decade as most fight merely to retain current subcribers.  

This, of course, doesn't mean the naysayers will go away :p

It's very rare for general video games even to grow much after release, not to meantion mmo's. It's not that it's not possible, but mostly it's the people who are really into the game. The word of mouth thing only works, IMO, if the game is really unkown. GW2 is already well known in the mmorpg community and alot in pc community, but i just don't see it growing into the overall market, like console players and all around people like casual players.

Originally posted by NeoZcar2

Originally posted by sammyeli

Originally posted by NeoZcar2

Originally posted by sammyeli

I know it shouldn't be compared to D3 but it looks like they have sold around  6.3 mil in a week, atleast thats what blizzard is saying I guess.

They havent sold 6.3 million in a week. They have sold 6.3 million in the last year ever since they first offered the free DIablo 3 with purchase of annual WoW pass crap... Also every WoW player who purchased a Annual pass without any intention of playing D3 is considered a Diablo 3 purchase.

Ahh I see ok thanks for the clarification.

One thing you have to remember any time you are looking at a Blizzard product is that every single number they release publicly is grossly exxagerated due to shady bookkeeping. Just like they claim there is 10+million people subscribed to WoW... But their numbers include both the free to lvl 20 guest accounts and the 6+ million players in China who only spend about 2 - 5$ US per month to play. Because their definition of subscription is any active account... Which includes the pay per hour accounts(chinese), free game time accounts, guest accounts, and regular subscriptions.

So when they say they sold 3.5 million copies in the first 24 hours, that really means.......................what? You'll have to use your tinfoil hat to decifer that one for me.

I'm sure GW2 will do pretty well at it's initial release, but I don't imagine it going much beyond 1-2 million copies it's first year as a high estimate. I'm guessing like GW1, it'll really shine where other games fail -  in the long run.

Where most sub based MMOs sell an initial amount of boxes and then rely on subs soon after as primary income, often dropping box price to a few dollars in many cases or even offer a free client, GW1 and it's expansions went on to sell over 6 million units since it's release without ever drastically reducing the price (although the bundle deals could be figured in to some degree I'm sure).

I'd bet that in the same amount of time GW2 will at least match the sales of GW1 if not surpass it (and other MMOs, possibly by quite a bit as word of mouth regarding it's overall quality spreads).

I think if Arenanet hits us with the tv commercials like blizzard did with D3 then I'm going with 3.5 - 4million in the first month, if just the usual website ads and word of mouth then yea 2 - 2.5mil.

Originally posted by Homitu

For the first time in a very long time, I actually expect GW2 to grow post-release as word of mouth gets out about just how good the game is.  Few MMOs have managed that over the past decade as most fight merely to retain current subcribers.  

This, of course, doesn't mean the naysayers will go away :p

 I'm with you.

And forum naysayers or cheerleaders don't matter in the grand scheme of things.  The only way you can tell how a game is doing is by checking cold hard facts.  For example, SWTOR seems to be floundering not because of all the forum hate, but because of the fact that EA just laid off a bunch of Bioware folks and they publicly stated that SWTOR isn't really that important to them anymore.

Originally posted by The_Korrigan

Originally posted by Thorbrand

Not once you add in refunds and the game doesn't release until Q1 2013.

If you manage to get a refund for a GW2 prepurchase, I want you to scan the receipt and post it here as proof.

Take your time, I'm not holding my breath ;)

Speaking in general terms, retailers often just give a refunds to shut up problematic, self-entitled customers who didn't have the common sense to understand the terms of purchase before they paid.  They do this because the amount of resources wasted trying to reason with someone who is clearly unreasonable, would outweigh the profit they would make off the sale.  They give it to them to make them go away.  You can probably see why it would be beneficial to make some people go away, rather than trying to placate them.  They just aren't worth the time and effort.

What difference does it make how many boxes they sell ?

Is that "proof" of how "good" the game is ? If GW2 sells 2.5M boxes in the first 6 months, does that mean it's just as "good" as SWTOR ? o.0

And how will the ongoing success of GW2 be measured ? Can't use subscriber numbers, because there's no sub. Will we be looking at X-Fire charts again ? Or the "official" server loading ratings ? But with "guesting", how can anyone actually pin down the server populations ?

This is going to be such fun, I better stock up on popcorn... :D

Originally posted by AvatarBlade

Originally posted by The_Korrigan

Originally posted by Thorbrand

Not once you add in refunds and the game doesn't release until Q1 2013.

If you manage to get a refund for a GW2 prepurchase, I want you to scan the receipt and post it here as proof.

Take your time, I'm not holding my breath ;)

It could probably be done through a chargeback, but from ANet themselves it won't.

I seriously doubt it. Even for a chargeback, you need a valid reason - aka breach of contract. Here there's nothing like that, the prepurchase conditions where limpid.

Originally posted by SpottyGekko

What difference does it make how many boxes they sell ?

Is that "proof" of how "good" the game is ? If GW2 sells 2.5M boxes in the first 6 months, does that mean it's just as "good" as SWTOR ? o.0

 

And how will the ongoing success of GW2 be measured ? Can't use subscriber numbers, because there's no sub. Will we be looking at X-Fire charts again ? Or the "official" server loading ratings ? But with "guesting", how can anyone actually pin down the server populations ?

 

This is going to be such fun, I better stock up on popcorn... :D

Aren't there going to be server status, with pop?

GW1 and expansions supposedly sold over 6 million units.

I could see GW2 reaching 2-3 million sold in the first month or two.

I think the initial sales will be around a million. If the game actually lives up to what it says it will and players don't see the cash shop as a fleecing device, then the sky is the limit post launch.

I think its already close to one million sales, judging the numbers of servers at the bwe.

regarding D3,

the 1st day sales of 3.5 million did not include the 1.2 million Annual Pass subs from WOW

D3 was available for preorder 2 months prior to release  (March 15 2012)

Guild Wars

2 years ago, GW had exceeded 6.5 million units

http://www.joystiq.com/2010/08/31/guild-wars-surpasses-6-5-million-sales-sequel-will-be-released/

but that includes all units,  different campaigns, and the one expansion

what do box sales matter when 90 percent of the people who bought the game leave in a month

id rather look at active subscribers and i guess in guild wars 2's case.active players,since its not really a pay to play mmo