Originally posted by Quicksand

Originally posted by mcburly

Originally posted by Quicksand

Originally posted by thubub

So what can be learned from the massive failure of SW:TOR.  

 

 

I was unable to continue taking the post serious after that line.

 

Didn't meet expectations? maybe

You don't like it? Sure

Maybe not even any good...

 

But MASSIVE Failure? just too funny.

dont ya know? 98% of the people that hang out on this site want this game to fail hard.

Yeah I know, just cracks me up some times.

 

It is funny though...

 

Lets say they only sold 1.5 mil copies of the game (pretty sure they sold more than that in pre sales alone) but we'll just stick with 1.5 mil

 

At $59 a copy, they made $88.5 mil from box sales alone (again, thats if they only sold 1.5 mil copies, they sold a whole lot more)

 

if only half of them subbed for one month, thats another $11.3 mil roughly (more than half subbed if they only lost 400k subs as posted by all the haters)

 

That puts a rock bottom price brought in the very first month at $99.8 mil

 

If memory serves (I may be wrong) It was widely published that the game cost $100 mil to make

 

So they need to make another $200k to break even....

 

Yeah Massive Failure

Oh I know, I just find the Doom & Gloom posting hilarious especially since I recently befriended someone who, lets just say, knows the inside scoop on the game. After having discussions with him, I can say that the game is doing well and will be fine long term.

When TOR was still in devlopment, I watched the countless threads made by zealous people declaring it would be the jeebus christ of MMOs saving the genre and making them want to play again. I followed all the dev Q&A and watched people go bonkers about BW and kotor.

Those same people now claim it has failed. funny part is they have to be subbed to post thsoe opinions on the main forums.yet they spend a great deal of time wanting a xserver LFG tool or moddable UI's and don't get them started about server transfers.

Most who play in the game seem adult and we spend more time playing then crying like babys on the forums for features and mechanics from  world of warcraft.

So bottom line is ignore those types of people like I did and just play the game.

These types of QQing people declare each new MMO will be the only MMO they will ever play and end up pissed when a loading screen appars and PVP for some reason is not like dark age of camelot.

My opinion is TOR is everything the devs promised and then some. I hated TOR from the day it was announced. but man if i'm not having the time of my life in it right now.

---

Originally posted by Zlayer77

The big studios like EA havent had a smash hit in years.

---

Fifa 11, Crysis 2, Battlefield 3, Mass Effect 3, just the recent ones..

I can understand your sentiment for "good-old-times" but you are delusioning yourself here. They are the biggest, most money making publisher on western market.

You know, buying a development studio is not a cheap stuff and you gotta make those money somehow...

Originally posted by Gdemami

 

---

Originally posted by superniceguy

it is a fail overall to the masses and to EA/Bioware

---

 

Speak for yourself only as you are not entitled in any way to speak for either "masses" nor EA/BioWare.

Why people did not re-sub? For same reasons as for any other MMO, SWTOR is no difference. The only thing is the drop appears as something extraordinary but it is not - it is only due recent launch, the numbers need to settle down.

 

---

Originally posted by Bardus
By EA's own definition, doesn't it need to maintain 1 million subs to be successful? They're the ones that said it.

 

Being 2nd largest MMO is highly debatable ATM. None of us know what the real numbers are past the spin.

 

---

 

Depends on perception of successful.

Speaking strictly in terms of expenses/income, they need about 300k subs to break even and 500k to have a profit.

Last official numbers were talking about 1.3M active subs with majority of paying customers. If I go with 50% for paying subs as the minimum to make the statement true, it is still 2nd largest MMO on western market.

Dude, he has the  data.    For all what you say, he has the data.    The data is:

1.   900K lost subscriptions if the first 70-days past trial.

2.  There are only six severs (NA) that get to 'standard' 50% or of the time.

3.  There are only 3 of the 24 EGA US East Coast servers that are healthy and a few more are 'meh.'   The rest are dead or virutally dead.   So most the most populated of the most populated Early GameAccess servers are ghost towns.   The second-wave of servers are even worse.  

4.  63 of the 124 US servers have not gotten out of ight, even at peak, for two (or more) weeks.   That's more than 50%.

5.  When XFIre log-ins were off 60%, susbscriptions had dropped 45%.   Because so many people bought long-term subs, it inflated subs vis active population.    However, those subs will toll.   And currently, XFire log ins are routinely under 2000/day.  A far cry from the 12,000/day in late December/early-Janaury.   

http://www.mmorpg.com/gamelist.cfm/game/367/view/forums/thread/349680/page/18

6.  Currently, the active log-in player base is 1/6th what it was in January.  When there were 1.7 million subs.   The churn rate has not slowed down.  In fact, in the past month it's accelerated to 60%.  (From 5K/day to 2k/day.)

You can have your own opinion.   But you don't get your own facts.    And people who are data and analysis driven, such as myself and others, look at the numbers.   And what they tell us is:   This is Warhammer all-over-again.  This is AoC all-over-again.  

Originally posted by mcburly

Originally posted by Quicksand

Originally posted by mcburly

Originally posted by Quicksand

Originally posted by thubub

So what can be learned from the massive failure of SW:TOR.  

 

 

I was unable to continue taking the post serious after that line.

 

Didn't meet expectations? maybe

You don't like it? Sure

Maybe not even any good...

 

But MASSIVE Failure? just too funny.

dont ya know? 98% of the people that hang out on this site want this game to fail hard.

Yeah I know, just cracks me up some times.

 

It is funny though...

 

Lets say they only sold 1.5 mil copies of the game (pretty sure they sold more than that in pre sales alone) but we'll just stick with 1.5 mil

 

At $59 a copy, they made $88.5 mil from box sales alone (again, thats if they only sold 1.5 mil copies, they sold a whole lot more)

 

if only half of them subbed for one month, thats another $11.3 mil roughly (more than half subbed if they only lost 400k subs as posted by all the haters)

 

That puts a rock bottom price brought in the very first month at $99.8 mil

 

If memory serves (I may be wrong) It was widely published that the game cost $100 mil to make

 

So they need to make another $200k to break even....

 

Yeah Massive Failure

Oh I know, I just find the Doom & Gloom posting hilarious especially since I recently befriended someone who, lets just say, knows the inside scoop on the game. After having discussions with him, I can say that the game is doing well and will be fine long term.

Are you guys forgetting all bout LA getting a piece of the profit pie? Do you really think EA banks every dollar from subs and box sales?

What about LA's share? None of us know what it is but maybe the guy that knows someone on the inside can find out for us.. What about overhead, salaries, vacations, donuts, light bill, advertising, unemployment insurance and so on?

Come on guys, every dollar in sales can't be applied to the development cost. Oh, it's even more widely publicized that it cost $200+ million, not $100 million.

To the guy that says "I recently befriended someone who, lets just say, knows the inside scoop", I'm looking for a horse hockey emote, can anyone direct me to a horse hockey emote? Seriously dude, do you take us for that much fools?

Originally posted by Gdemami

 

---

Originally posted by Zlayer77

 

The big studios like EA havent had a smash hit in years.

---

 

Fifa 11, Crysis 2, Battlefield 3, Mass Effect 3, just the recent ones..

I can understand your sentiment for "good-old-times" but you are delusioning yourself here. They are the biggest, most money making publisher on western market.

You know, buying a development studio is not a cheap stuff and you gotta make those money somehow...

Skyrim soldl more units than the entier Mass Effect Series.   Obsidian out-sells BioWare 2 to 1.    Bethesda has completely buried BioWare.    Other companies routinely out-sell BioWare.    They are, to put it bluntly, like an old rock band.   Yeah, they sell some games to the fanboys.   But their fan base gets smaller and smaller and smaller each release.

What's worse, their games are not only doing progressively worse...   The market has, over the past decade, expanded four-fold while their sales have gone flat to slightly declining...

BF3 was buried by MW3.   Didn't come near the units the wanted.   Madden and the other sports properties keep declining each year as people get tired of paying $60 for a glorified roster update.   The Sims3 may have sold a lot of units, but it wasn't anywhere close to Sims2.   

So, yeah....     They have some properties.   But they just keep declining.  Year after year.

-op

The main thing I have learned from SWTOR is that no company is too big to fail.  I was stupid enough to think that because it was being made by Bioware it would be good.  Looking back, that is such a moronic stance, I'm kind of ashamed.  I guess this sort of thing makes you more critical of developers which is only good.

Originally posted by Quicksand

Originally posted by mcburly

Originally posted by Quicksand

Originally posted by thubub

So what can be learned from the massive failure of SW:TOR.  

 

 

I was unable to continue taking the post serious after that line.

 

Didn't meet expectations? maybe

You don't like it? Sure

Maybe not even any good...

 

But MASSIVE Failure? just too funny.

dont ya know? 98% of the people that hang out on this site want this game to fail hard.

Yeah I know, just cracks me up some times.

 

It is funny though...

 

Lets say they only sold 1.5 mil copies of the game (pretty sure they sold more than that in pre sales alone) but we'll just stick with 1.5 mil

 

At $59 a copy, they made $88.5 mil from box sales alone (again, thats if they only sold 1.5 mil copies, they sold a whole lot more)

 

if only half of them subbed for one month, thats another $11.3 mil roughly (more than half subbed if they only lost 400k subs as posted by all the haters)

 

That puts a rock bottom price brought in the very first month at $99.8 mil

 

If memory serves (I may be wrong) It was widely published that the game cost $100 mil to make

 

So they need to make another $200k to break even....

 

Yeah Massive Failure

Ah.  You're obviously not an accountant.   I am. 

So, first, 67% of the units were through retail distribution, not Origin.  Fifty-percent of that money went to the retailer.   Of the other one-third, they got all that money at retail.  But they dont' get to keep it all.    Then there's Lucas Arts, the PUBLISHER  of the game.   They take a 30% royalty off the top.   So, they didn't get anything close to what you project.    

Then there's costs.    The biggest line-item cost was marketing and the $35 million they dropped in the advertising campaign.    Then there are all those discs, etc., for the retail box.  That's $5 a pop just to press and jewel-case them.    Then you have to distribute them which is another $2 a box.

Then the direct costs to run the game.  Fully-weighted server costs are 30% of revenue.    Then there's over-head, customer service, bug-patches, on-going programming, beneifits, payroll taxes, rent, utilities, legal, etc, etc., etc.

And after all this, they've got to recoup a $250 million (not $100 million) investment.

As an accountant, I sat down one day and figured out just how many units they'd need to sell with a 5% churn rate to break even on this game over the next two years.   It was over 6 million units assuming a 'best case' 5% churn rate.

SWTOR has a 20%+ churn rate and sales are less than 50K a month now and declining every week with a total of  2.3 million copies to date and only 500K+ (most of which were in January) for 2012.     The subs are bleeding like crazy and the active log-in play-base is 1/6th of what  it was in Janaury.    The stable, long term population projects to under 300K now in the best-case.  In the worst...   100K maybe... 

Even worse, they cannot leave the game as it is and have even a remote chance of recouping the investment.  It needs at least another $50 million worth of work (a typical large MMO expansion cost).   

So, yeah, failure.  

Originally posted by MosesZD

Originally posted by Quicksand

Originally posted by mcburly

Originally posted by Quicksand

Originally posted by thubub

So what can be learned from the massive failure of SW:TOR.  

 

 

I was unable to continue taking the post serious after that line.

 

Didn't meet expectations? maybe

You don't like it? Sure

Maybe not even any good...

 

But MASSIVE Failure? just too funny.

dont ya know? 98% of the people that hang out on this site want this game to fail hard.

Yeah I know, just cracks me up some times.

 

It is funny though...

 

Lets say they only sold 1.5 mil copies of the game (pretty sure they sold more than that in pre sales alone) but we'll just stick with 1.5 mil

 

At $59 a copy, they made $88.5 mil from box sales alone (again, thats if they only sold 1.5 mil copies, they sold a whole lot more)

 

if only half of them subbed for one month, thats another $11.3 mil roughly (more than half subbed if they only lost 400k subs as posted by all the haters)

 

That puts a rock bottom price brought in the very first month at $99.8 mil

 

If memory serves (I may be wrong) It was widely published that the game cost $100 mil to make

 

So they need to make another $200k to break even....

 

Yeah Massive Failure

Ah.  You're obviously not an accountant.   I am. 

 

So, first, 67% of the units were through retail distribution, not Origin.  Fifty-percent of that money went to the retailer.   Of the other one-third, they got all that money at retail.  But they dont' get to keep it all.    Then there's Lucas Arts, the PUBLISHER  of the game.   They take a 30% royalty off the top.   So, they didn't get anything close to what you project.    

 

Then there's costs.    The biggest line-item cost was marketing and the $35 million they dropped in the advertising campaign.    Then there are all those discs, etc., for the retail box.  That's $5 a pop just to press and jewel-case them.    Then you have to distribute them which is another $2 a box.

 

Then the direct costs to run the game.  Fully-weighted server costs are 30% of revenue.    Then there's over-head, customer service, bug-patches, on-going programming, beneifits, payroll taxes, rent, utilities, legal, etc, etc., etc.

 

And after all this, they've got to recoup a $250 million (not $100 million) investment.

 

As an accountant, I sat down one day and figured out just how many units they'd need to sell with a 5% churn rate to break even on this game over the next two years.   It was over 6 million units assuming a 'best case' 5% churn rate.

 

SWTOR has a 20%+ churn rate and sales are less than 50K a month now and declining every week with a total of  2.3 million copies to date and only 500K+ (most of which were in January) for 2012.     The subs are bleeding like crazy and the active log-in play-base is 1/6th of what  it was in Janaury.    The stable, long term population projects to under 300K now in the best-case.  In the worst...   100K maybe... 

 

Even worse, they cannot leave the game as it is and have even a remote chance of recouping the investment.  It needs at least another $50 million worth of work (a typical large MMO expansion cost).   

 

So, yeah, failure.  

nice post.. only part im curious is how you came up with 30% revenue for server costs

Originally posted by MosesZD

Originally posted by Quicksand

Originally posted by mcburly

Originally posted by Quicksand

Originally posted by thubub

So what can be learned from the massive failure of SW:TOR.  

 

 

I was unable to continue taking the post serious after that line.

 

Didn't meet expectations? maybe

You don't like it? Sure

Maybe not even any good...

 

But MASSIVE Failure? just too funny.

dont ya know? 98% of the people that hang out on this site want this game to fail hard.

Yeah I know, just cracks me up some times.

 

It is funny though...

 

Lets say they only sold 1.5 mil copies of the game (pretty sure they sold more than that in pre sales alone) but we'll just stick with 1.5 mil

 

At $59 a copy, they made $88.5 mil from box sales alone (again, thats if they only sold 1.5 mil copies, they sold a whole lot more)

 

if only half of them subbed for one month, thats another $11.3 mil roughly (more than half subbed if they only lost 400k subs as posted by all the haters)

 

That puts a rock bottom price brought in the very first month at $99.8 mil

 

If memory serves (I may be wrong) It was widely published that the game cost $100 mil to make

 

So they need to make another $200k to break even....

 

Yeah Massive Failure

Ah.  You're obviously not an accountant.   I am. 

 

So, first, 67% of the units were through retail distribution, not Origin.  Fifty-percent of that money went to the retailer.   Of the other one-third, they got all that money at retail.  But they dont' get to keep it all.    Then there's Lucas Arts, the PUBLISHER  of the game.   They take a 30% royalty off the top.   So, they didn't get anything close to what you project.    

 

Then there's costs.    The biggest line-item cost was marketing and the $35 million they dropped in the advertising campaign.    Then there are all those discs, etc., for the retail box.  That's $5 a pop just to press and jewel-case them.    Then you have to distribute them which is another $2 a box.

 

Then the direct costs to run the game.  Fully-weighted server costs are 30% of revenue.    Then there's over-head, customer service, bug-patches, on-going programming, beneifits, payroll taxes, rent, utilities, legal, etc, etc., etc.

 

And after all this, they've got to recoup a $250 million (not $100 million) investment.

 

As an accountant, I sat down one day and figured out just how many units they'd need to sell with a 5% churn rate to break even on this game over the next two years.   It was over 6 million units assuming a 'best case' 5% churn rate.

 

SWTOR has a 20%+ churn rate and sales are less than 50K a month now and declining every week with a total of  2.3 million copies to date and only 500K+ (most of which were in January) for 2012.     The subs are bleeding like crazy and the active log-in play-base is 1/6th of what  it was in Janaury.    The stable, long term population projects to under 300K now in the best-case.  In the worst...   100K maybe... 

 

Even worse, they cannot leave the game as it is and have even a remote chance of recouping the investment.  It needs at least another $50 million worth of work (a typical large MMO expansion cost).   

 

So, yeah, failure.  

Saying that you're an accountant doesn't make you right, just as saying that they were expert analysts didn't make renowned analysts right with all their predictions that often wildly differed from eachother about all kinds of stuff.

I couldn't care less about SWTOR, but seeing your figures, it looks just as much as wild guessing and speculating mixed in with some facts, than any other bogus amateur analysis I've seen posted on these forums by people who only used it to give a shiny sheen over their viewpoint.

In particular, I miss reliable source reference to the server costs being 30% of revenues (which sound blatantly false or off compared to other figures regarding MMO server costs from even more expert and specialist analysts I've read), the 250 million dollars investment, the 35 million dollar advertisement, and expansions always costing 50 million dollars. They all sound like a lot of conjecture and wild speculations, which usually makes me suspicious of the persons using that mix of a few facts with their own personal wild guesses, especially if they try to sell it as 'the truth'. Been there, seen that far too often in all kinds of areas.

Oh, I do recall btw an EA/BW statement that Lucasarts percentage fee only would kick in after they'd broken even and recuperated the development costs, not during or before.

@Mcburly: yeah, I gather that there are a lot of people on this site that don't even play MMO's anymore, whose only fun is hanging around MMO forums, and who have a vivid, almost obsessive hatred towards themepark MMO gameplay, or 'WoW clones' as they like to call it. So here's my own wild guess: I bet that 50% or more that visit and post on these forums aren't even having fun in MMO's anymore, or even play them anymore.

Originally posted by MosesZD

Originally posted by Quicksand

Originally posted by mcburly

Originally posted by Quicksand

Originally posted by thubub

So what can be learned from the massive failure of SW:TOR.  

 

 

I was unable to continue taking the post serious after that line.

 

Didn't meet expectations? maybe

You don't like it? Sure

Maybe not even any good...

 

But MASSIVE Failure? just too funny.

dont ya know? 98% of the people that hang out on this site want this game to fail hard.

Yeah I know, just cracks me up some times.

 

It is funny though...

 

Lets say they only sold 1.5 mil copies of the game (pretty sure they sold more than that in pre sales alone) but we'll just stick with 1.5 mil

 

At $59 a copy, they made $88.5 mil from box sales alone (again, thats if they only sold 1.5 mil copies, they sold a whole lot more)

 

if only half of them subbed for one month, thats another $11.3 mil roughly (more than half subbed if they only lost 400k subs as posted by all the haters)

 

That puts a rock bottom price brought in the very first month at $99.8 mil

 

If memory serves (I may be wrong) It was widely published that the game cost $100 mil to make

 

So they need to make another $200k to break even....

 

Yeah Massive Failure

Ah.  You're obviously not an accountant.   I am. 

 

So, first, 67% of the units were through retail distribution, not Origin.  Fifty-percent of that money went to the retailer.   Of the other one-third, they got all that money at retail.  But they dont' get to keep it all.    Then there's Lucas Arts, the PUBLISHER  of the game.   They take a 30% royalty off the top.   So, they didn't get anything close to what you project.    

 

Then there's costs.    The biggest line-item cost was marketing and the $35 million they dropped in the advertising campaign.    Then there are all those discs, etc., for the retail box.  That's $5 a pop just to press and jewel-case them.    Then you have to distribute them which is another $2 a box.

 

Then the direct costs to run the game.  Fully-weighted server costs are 30% of revenue.    Then there's over-head, customer service, bug-patches, on-going programming, beneifits, payroll taxes, rent, utilities, legal, etc, etc., etc.

 

And after all this, they've got to recoup a $250 million (not $100 million) investment.

 

As an accountant, I sat down one day and figured out just how many units they'd need to sell with a 5% churn rate to break even on this game over the next two years.   It was over 6 million units assuming a 'best case' 5% churn rate.

 

SWTOR has a 20%+ churn rate and sales are less than 50K a month now and declining every week with a total of  2.3 million copies to date and only 500K+ (most of which were in January) for 2012.     The subs are bleeding like crazy and the active log-in play-base is 1/6th of what  it was in Janaury.    The stable, long term population projects to under 300K now in the best-case.  In the worst...   100K maybe... 

 

Even worse, they cannot leave the game as it is and have even a remote chance of recouping the investment.  It needs at least another $50 million worth of work (a typical large MMO expansion cost).   

 

So, yeah, failure.  

You try tossing out exact numbers and %'s in order to make it look like you really know what your talking about instead of generalizing them like I did to illistrate a point. So lets look into those numbers of yours

Point 1.  67% of the units: You have no idea EXACTLY what % were box sales vs DD. So, you're making uninformed guesses but trying to make it look like you know something that you don't, there by discrediting everything you say.

Point 2. 30% taken off the top by Lucas Arts, see point 1.

Point 3. Your projected lasting subs... you have zero bases for thse numbers, NONE, and unless you can actually see into the future you can't even guess. but again, see point 1.

But anyways, you are super smart and since you don't like SWTOR then it must be a failure.

One thing this thread has done is get me interested in resubbing to TOR. Haven't played since the included month ended, but I think I may go and check it out again.

*Edit*

Forgot your 30% server cost thing, that happens to be one thing I know about, I spent 2 1/2 years as an engineer for the Denver Data Center for eBay Inc located on Revere Parkway in Centennial Colo. I worked 4 10 hr shifts a week while working for them. during my shifts I was the only guy there. I made $21 hr. and we had just over 300 servers (including facility IT servers). You claiming 30% rev to run their servers? Wrong.

Originally posted by MosesZD

Originally posted by Quicksand

Originally posted by mcburly

Originally posted by Quicksand

Originally posted by thubub

So what can be learned from the massive failure of SW:TOR.  

 

 

I was unable to continue taking the post serious after that line.

 

Didn't meet expectations? maybe

You don't like it? Sure

Maybe not even any good...

 

But MASSIVE Failure? just too funny.

dont ya know? 98% of the people that hang out on this site want this game to fail hard.

Yeah I know, just cracks me up some times.

 

It is funny though...

 

Lets say they only sold 1.5 mil copies of the game (pretty sure they sold more than that in pre sales alone) but we'll just stick with 1.5 mil

 

At $59 a copy, they made $88.5 mil from box sales alone (again, thats if they only sold 1.5 mil copies, they sold a whole lot more)

 

if only half of them subbed for one month, thats another $11.3 mil roughly (more than half subbed if they only lost 400k subs as posted by all the haters)

 

That puts a rock bottom price brought in the very first month at $99.8 mil

 

If memory serves (I may be wrong) It was widely published that the game cost $100 mil to make

 

So they need to make another $200k to break even....

 

Yeah Massive Failure

Ah.  You're obviously not an accountant.   I am. 

 

So, first, 67% of the units were through retail distribution, not Origin.  Fifty-percent of that money went to the retailer.   Of the other one-third, they got all that money at retail.  But they dont' get to keep it all.    Then there's Lucas Arts, the PUBLISHER  of the game.   They take a 30% royalty off the top.   So, they didn't get anything close to what you project.    

 

Then there's costs.    The biggest line-item cost was marketing and the $35 million they dropped in the advertising campaign.    Then there are all those discs, etc., for the retail box.  That's $5 a pop just to press and jewel-case them.    Then you have to distribute them which is another $2 a box.

 

Then the direct costs to run the game.  Fully-weighted server costs are 30% of revenue.    Then there's over-head, customer service, bug-patches, on-going programming, beneifits, payroll taxes, rent, utilities, legal, etc, etc., etc.

 

And after all this, they've got to recoup a $250 million (not $100 million) investment.

 

As an accountant, I sat down one day and figured out just how many units they'd need to sell with a 5% churn rate to break even on this game over the next two years.   It was over 6 million units assuming a 'best case' 5% churn rate.

 

SWTOR has a 20%+ churn rate and sales are less than 50K a month now and declining every week with a total of  2.3 million copies to date and only 500K+ (most of which were in January) for 2012.     The subs are bleeding like crazy and the active log-in play-base is 1/6th of what  it was in Janaury.    The stable, long term population projects to under 300K now in the best-case.  In the worst...   100K maybe... 

 

Even worse, they cannot leave the game as it is and have even a remote chance of recouping the investment.  It needs at least another $50 million worth of work (a typical large MMO expansion cost).   

 

So, yeah, failure.  

I do not agree that its a failure. Failure is a game that shuts down shortly after or never maintains a 300 to 500k sub. Matrix Online = failure as an example. Just because TOR did not have or most likely will not have 11 million subscriptions doesnt make it a failure. 

Is the drastic fall of subs a bad sign? Yes

To say that because a game when it first releases does not maintains its original population is ridiculous. Rift started with around 800 to 900k and last I read was around 400k. Once again WoW has set the bar so far high for envisioned success that anything less than 11 million subscriptions is considered a failure. That is foolish. WoW is not the norm and we will probably never see another game reach that type of level.  If TOR says in order to maintain and bring in a slight profit they need at least 500k subscriptions than anything less than that will lead to an eventual failure. 

I also find it funny that in order for someone to negate the argument you say I am an accountant so therefore what I say is absolute. Really it just means you think you know it all when really none of us do because we do not have access to their books and we are not privy to their information behind the scenes. Your numbers and speculation is just that, speculation. When they close the doors on the game and can no longer host the game than you will be correct regardless of the so called financial numbers you throw out there cause it wont matter. It will be a failure. Until than not a failure. 

The bottom line is it did not meet your expectations and the bloated vision of all us Star Wars fans.

Originally posted by Unlight

I've always been of the mind that in an MMO, gameplay always trumps story.  Always.  BWEA got it backwards and ended up with an experience that for most, was only enjoyable for a short period of time, just like any good book or film.  Once the story had been explored, the weak gameplay couldn't sustain ongoing interest on a large scale. 

Everything else that's happened stemmed from that singular error.  Bioware brought a single-player mentality to an MMO and ended up with single-player game with a subscription.  I believe this is also the reason why they simply copied so many of WoW's elements into their own game.  The gameplay wasn't important enough to them to design their own, unique system so they imported someone else's.

Totally Agree, word for word.

Originally posted by raistlinm

Originally posted by superniceguy

Originally posted by Gdemami

 

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Originally posted by superniceguy

it is a fail overall to the masses and to EA/Bioware

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Speak for yourself only as you are not entitled in any way to speak for either "masses" nor EA/BioWare.

Why people did not re-sub? For same reasons as for any other MMO, SWTOR is no difference. The only thing is the drop appears as something extraordinary but it is not - it is only due recent launch, the numbers need to settle down.

 

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I have not spoken for either the masses nor EA/Bioware, they have spoken themselves by the mass cancellations, and EA/biowares reactions to it.

There should not be this amount of cancellations after only 1 month. If the game had a 10 year lifespan, there should be more subs not less. It is definately not going to reach 10 years at this rate.

The reason people quit is because the game is not substantial to warrant a monthly fee, ergo it is a failure, because the game is designed around that monthly fee.

You start your post by saying "I have not spoken for the masses" then immediately end it by.....yup you guessed it speaking for the masses. "the reason people quit is because".

you people kill me.  and honestly with SWG for your tag I would not view your opinion with skepticism only if you spoke about the game as an active subscriber not someone who either never played because they loved SWG or someone who is no longer playing but still pining away for SWG....

I still do not speak for the masses, it is what the masses post over and over again on the forums, and I am just re-iterating it.

Originally posted by Quicksand

Originally posted by MosesZD

Originally posted by Quicksand

Originally posted by mcburly

Originally posted by Quicksand

Originally posted by thubub

So what can be learned from the massive failure of SW:TOR.  

 

 

I was unable to continue taking the post serious after that line.

 

Didn't meet expectations? maybe

You don't like it? Sure

Maybe not even any good...

 

But MASSIVE Failure? just too funny.

dont ya know? 98% of the people that hang out on this site want this game to fail hard.

Yeah I know, just cracks me up some times.

 

It is funny though...

 

Lets say they only sold 1.5 mil copies of the game (pretty sure they sold more than that in pre sales alone) but we'll just stick with 1.5 mil

 

At $59 a copy, they made $88.5 mil from box sales alone (again, thats if they only sold 1.5 mil copies, they sold a whole lot more)

 

if only half of them subbed for one month, thats another $11.3 mil roughly (more than half subbed if they only lost 400k subs as posted by all the haters)

 

That puts a rock bottom price brought in the very first month at $99.8 mil

 

If memory serves (I may be wrong) It was widely published that the game cost $100 mil to make

 

So they need to make another $200k to break even....

 

Yeah Massive Failure

Ah.  You're obviously not an accountant.   I am. 

 

So, first, 67% of the units were through retail distribution, not Origin.  Fifty-percent of that money went to the retailer.   Of the other one-third, they got all that money at retail.  But they dont' get to keep it all.    Then there's Lucas Arts, the PUBLISHER  of the game.   They take a 30% royalty off the top.   So, they didn't get anything close to what you project.    

 

Then there's costs.    The biggest line-item cost was marketing and the $35 million they dropped in the advertising campaign.    Then there are all those discs, etc., for the retail box.  That's $5 a pop just to press and jewel-case them.    Then you have to distribute them which is another $2 a box.

 

Then the direct costs to run the game.  Fully-weighted server costs are 30% of revenue.    Then there's over-head, customer service, bug-patches, on-going programming, beneifits, payroll taxes, rent, utilities, legal, etc, etc., etc.

 

And after all this, they've got to recoup a $250 million (not $100 million) investment.

 

As an accountant, I sat down one day and figured out just how many units they'd need to sell with a 5% churn rate to break even on this game over the next two years.   It was over 6 million units assuming a 'best case' 5% churn rate.

 

SWTOR has a 20%+ churn rate and sales are less than 50K a month now and declining every week with a total of  2.3 million copies to date and only 500K+ (most of which were in January) for 2012.     The subs are bleeding like crazy and the active log-in play-base is 1/6th of what  it was in Janaury.    The stable, long term population projects to under 300K now in the best-case.  In the worst...   100K maybe... 

 

Even worse, they cannot leave the game as it is and have even a remote chance of recouping the investment.  It needs at least another $50 million worth of work (a typical large MMO expansion cost).   

 

So, yeah, failure.  

You try tossing out exact numbers and %'s in order to make it look like you really know what your talking about instead of generalizing them like I did to illistrate a point. So lets look into those numbers of yours

 

Point 1.  67% of the units: You have no idea EXACTLY what % were box sales vs DD. So, you're making uninformed guesses but trying to make it look like you know something that you don't, there by discrediting everything you say.

 

Point 2. 30% taken off the top by Lucas Arts, see point 1.

 

Point 3. Your projected lasting subs... you have zero bases for thse numbers, NONE, and unless you can actually see into the future you can't even guess. but again, see point 1.

 

But anyways, you are super smart and since you don't like SWTOR then it must be a failure.

 

One thing this thread has done is get me interested in resubbing to TOR. Haven't played since the included month ended, but I think I may go and check it out again.

 

 

*Edit*

Forgot your 30% server cost thing, that happens to be one thing I know about, I spent 2 1/2 years as an engineer for the Denver Data Center for eBay Inc located on Revere Parkway in Centennial Colo. I worked 4 10 hr shifts a week while working for them. during my shifts I was the only guy there. I made $21 hr. and we had just over 300 servers (including facility IT servers). You claiming 30% rev to run their servers? Wrong.

Pot calling kettle black. Are you not just blowing numbers out your ass? Where are you backing up anything you say?

I know you are but what am I is no defense.

Originally posted by Bardus

To the guy that says "I recently befriended someone who, lets just say, knows the inside scoop", I'm looking for a horse hockey emote, can anyone direct me to a horse hockey emote? Seriously dude, do you take us for that much fools?

LOL, I knew someone was gonna come out and call me a liar. Its all good though, I have no reason to lie on these boards. take it for what it is. You dont have to believe me

Originally posted by Bardus

Originally posted by Quicksand

Originally posted by MosesZD

Originally posted by Quicksand

Originally posted by mcburly

Originally posted by Quicksand

Originally posted by thubub

So what can be learned from the massive failure of SW:TOR.  

 

 

I was unable to continue taking the post serious after that line.

 

Didn't meet expectations? maybe

You don't like it? Sure

Maybe not even any good...

 

But MASSIVE Failure? just too funny.

dont ya know? 98% of the people that hang out on this site want this game to fail hard.

Yeah I know, just cracks me up some times.

 

It is funny though...

 

Lets say they only sold 1.5 mil copies of the game (pretty sure they sold more than that in pre sales alone) but we'll just stick with 1.5 mil

 

At $59 a copy, they made $88.5 mil from box sales alone (again, thats if they only sold 1.5 mil copies, they sold a whole lot more)

 

if only half of them subbed for one month, thats another $11.3 mil roughly (more than half subbed if they only lost 400k subs as posted by all the haters)

 

That puts a rock bottom price brought in the very first month at $99.8 mil

 

If memory serves (I may be wrong) It was widely published that the game cost $100 mil to make

 

So they need to make another $200k to break even....

 

Yeah Massive Failure

Ah.  You're obviously not an accountant.   I am. 

 

So, first, 67% of the units were through retail distribution, not Origin.  Fifty-percent of that money went to the retailer.   Of the other one-third, they got all that money at retail.  But they dont' get to keep it all.    Then there's Lucas Arts, the PUBLISHER  of the game.   They take a 30% royalty off the top.   So, they didn't get anything close to what you project.    

 

Then there's costs.    The biggest line-item cost was marketing and the $35 million they dropped in the advertising campaign.    Then there are all those discs, etc., for the retail box.  That's $5 a pop just to press and jewel-case them.    Then you have to distribute them which is another $2 a box.

 

Then the direct costs to run the game.  Fully-weighted server costs are 30% of revenue.    Then there's over-head, customer service, bug-patches, on-going programming, beneifits, payroll taxes, rent, utilities, legal, etc, etc., etc.

 

And after all this, they've got to recoup a $250 million (not $100 million) investment.

 

As an accountant, I sat down one day and figured out just how many units they'd need to sell with a 5% churn rate to break even on this game over the next two years.   It was over 6 million units assuming a 'best case' 5% churn rate.

 

SWTOR has a 20%+ churn rate and sales are less than 50K a month now and declining every week with a total of  2.3 million copies to date and only 500K+ (most of which were in January) for 2012.     The subs are bleeding like crazy and the active log-in play-base is 1/6th of what  it was in Janaury.    The stable, long term population projects to under 300K now in the best-case.  In the worst...   100K maybe... 

 

Even worse, they cannot leave the game as it is and have even a remote chance of recouping the investment.  It needs at least another $50 million worth of work (a typical large MMO expansion cost).   

 

So, yeah, failure.  

You try tossing out exact numbers and %'s in order to make it look like you really know what your talking about instead of generalizing them like I did to illistrate a point. So lets look into those numbers of yours

 

Point 1.  67% of the units: You have no idea EXACTLY what % were box sales vs DD. So, you're making uninformed guesses but trying to make it look like you know something that you don't, there by discrediting everything you say.

 

Point 2. 30% taken off the top by Lucas Arts, see point 1.

 

Point 3. Your projected lasting subs... you have zero bases for thse numbers, NONE, and unless you can actually see into the future you can't even guess. but again, see point 1.

 

But anyways, you are super smart and since you don't like SWTOR then it must be a failure.

 

One thing this thread has done is get me interested in resubbing to TOR. Haven't played since the included month ended, but I think I may go and check it out again.

 

 

*Edit*

Forgot your 30% server cost thing, that happens to be one thing I know about, I spent 2 1/2 years as an engineer for the Denver Data Center for eBay Inc located on Revere Parkway in Centennial Colo. I worked 4 10 hr shifts a week while working for them. during my shifts I was the only guy there. I made $21 hr. and we had just over 300 servers (including facility IT servers). You claiming 30% rev to run their servers? Wrong.

Pot calling kettle black. Are you not just blowing numbers out your ass? Where are you backing up anything you say?

I know you are but what am I is no defense.

Where did I ever give any exact numbers about SWTOR ? I used guesses and said that that's what they were.  HUGE difference in my original post using numbers that were rounded DOWN numbers from the previously released info, so You make zero since slim.

*Edit*

Just in case I typed something that reads different to everyone else than it does to me, I don't claim to know anything about TOR, I base everything on the numbers released during preordering only (1.5 mil) and the price of a standard edition (not counting any delux or CE) of $59 Nothing more.

Originally posted by Sovrath

And are you of the opinion that every game can be everything to all people?

There is a reason why certain games speak to certain demographics of people. Hate to say it but unless you (royal "you") had blinders on, SWToR is exactly what they said it would be. Not inlcuding Illum. That was just an ill thought out mess.

Let's take it to another place.

In LOTRO, many peopel left because there wasn't "meaningful" pvp. Even though the game added pvp to hopefuly make people happy.

Since people left because of that should Turbine have added a huge pvp component?

Apparently not. they focused on what the game was actually about. In SWToR's case it's their stories. But for some reason there is a slew of people who didn't believe them even though they said it enough.

 

Clearly I am saying that by saying to stop looking at just what you like. CLEARLY by saying lets look at why people are leaving I am saying they must make a game for 100% of gamers living or have lived in the universe...hell, even for those that may live at some point and time in the future.

Clearly.

BTW, I loved how you used LOTRO as an example of why games dont do that...you know, the game that lost so many players that it went free to play to survive...

Bravo. lol...

In insider should write a book about SWTOR production from all aspects, I would LOVE to read all the juicy details....

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Originally posted by MosesZD

Skyrim soldl more units than the entier Mass Effect Series. 

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Fifa 11 sold as much copies as Skyrim alone + other millions of units of games I mentioned and those I forgot...

You are not making any point here. You really want to compare revenue of Bethesda and EA...really?

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Originally posted by MosesZD

And people who are data and analysis driven, such as myself and others, look at the numbers.

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Sorry but I am not moved by your random meaningless and completely way off "facts" and pseudo-analysis based upon them - especially when considering your "accounting post"...