Originally posted by Precusor

Originally posted by killion81

 

If they continue to lose about 23.5% of their subs per quarter, the game is going to drop under 500k sometime during Q1 2013.  That's assuming it doesn't drop significant amounts when the 3 month and 6 month subscriptions finally expire.

 

I suppose it's possible that sub numbers stabilize and even go up.  Of course, it's also possible that Earth will experience world peace in the near future... "possible" doesn't mean either are likely.

Not too long ago people claimed Swtor will go f2p by this time.

Yeah, that's nice and all, but I'm using the numbers EA provided.  Personally, I doubt their validity and believe there was some clever reporting used to define "active accounts".  My doubt of the validity of their numbers doesn't change that using their numbers and holding the current rate of decline (as a percentage) constant, the game will drop under 500k subs sometime at the beginning of next year.  What conclusion you want to draw from that is completely up to you.

Originally posted by Distopia

Originally posted by NeoZcar2

So just the numerical layout for a bit of controvercy..... Bioware/EA claims 1.3 million subs across 215 servers worldwide.... That is roughly 6050 accounts per server.... Where are all these people. Seems kinda odd that most independant studies place server populations between 400 - 800 on low pop servers, 800 - 1300 people on average servers, and 1500 - 2000 on high population servers like The Fatman.

Well only a certain percentage are going to be on at any given time. Hmm Fatman still healthy? Wonder how many bloodfiners are still there.

I understand what your saying but you have to remember more then 50% of these server have less then 200 people on at any given time... There is just no way they are hitting 1.3 million subs unless they are counting accounts like mine that have been unsubbed for almost 2 months but still say active.

Originally posted by Axehilt

Originally posted by Berikai

This game is nowhere near profitable atm,maybe years end,but not now.To think it is show's who's uninformed amirite?They may have about 120 mill back right now.People seem to think a $60 box sale = $60 to EA/Bio and it's lucky to be half that.Or should I say 1/10 to you Axe?

Simple math regarding box sales and modeling a harsh decline (losing 30% subs per month) showed $200mm revenue in like 4 months after launch.  Literally the only unknowns were retail store profit margins (which are said to be quite small, and certainly aren't 50% MSR) and ongoing post-launch run rate.

The link posted in this very thread is EA itself pointing out how profitable the game is with 1.3mm players.

Feel free to keep your arbitrary, hastily-drawn opinion with no basis in facts.  Meanwhile I'll crunch numbers with experience having actually produced games and worked closely with the product managers running them -- and discover the game is profitable independantly even before the EA link confirmed it ("profitable at 500k subscribers" is just about where my uber-conservative numbers crunch put the game 4-5 months out...at which point it became profitable.)

then my question to you would be is it worth the $200million? If you were the boss of EA and you knew then what is known now would you sign off on this game? It occurs to me that noone invests 200m just to peak at 1.7million subs and then watch it slowly drop. The risk/reward doesnt seem to be there. Other companies have cloned WoW for a lot less money.

Originally posted by spookytooth

Originally posted by Axehilt

Originally posted by Berikai

This game is nowhere near profitable atm,maybe years end,but not now.To think it is show's who's uninformed amirite?They may have about 120 mill back right now.People seem to think a $60 box sale = $60 to EA/Bio and it's lucky to be half that.Or should I say 1/10 to you Axe?

Simple math regarding box sales and modeling a harsh decline (losing 30% subs per month) showed $200mm revenue in like 4 months after launch.  Literally the only unknowns were retail store profit margins (which are said to be quite small, and certainly aren't 50% MSR) and ongoing post-launch run rate.

The link posted in this very thread is EA itself pointing out how profitable the game is with 1.3mm players.

Feel free to keep your arbitrary, hastily-drawn opinion with no basis in facts.  Meanwhile I'll crunch numbers with experience having actually produced games and worked closely with the product managers running them -- and discover the game is profitable independantly even before the EA link confirmed it ("profitable at 500k subscribers" is just about where my uber-conservative numbers crunch put the game 4-5 months out...at which point it became profitable.)

then my question to you would be is it worth the $200million? If you were the boss of EA and you knew then what is known now would you sign off on this game? It occurs to me that noone invests 200m just to peak at 1.7million subs and then watch it slowly drop. The risk/reward doesnt seem to be there. Other companies have cloned WoW for a lot less money.

Opportunity cost.  Could have used that $200 million to make many single player games, which would likely have resulted in far more total profit in a short period.  That original capital can then be reinvested in more single player games.  I am sure there are many other ways the original investment could have been used to yield far more profit in a shorter time frame.  This is what investors are concerned with and how they would rate an investment a good one, a bad one or a failure.

1.3 million may not sound bad, but I think the primary issue that most forget is that we are talking about EA here and that logic may not apply.  1.3 million subs may sound fantastic for players, but for EA it may be an utter disapointment, especially if they invested heavily into this game with the expectations that it would become a heavy hitter in the MMO industry. I know someone stated that it could survive off of 500k subs, but if EA expected this game to be a WoW killer then I doubt they are happy right now. 

 No matter how well TOR fairs, if it does not meet EA's expectations then there is trouble for TOR. 

Again, 1.3 million subs is not bad, but we are talking about EA here, not actual MMO players. 

Originally posted by Axehilt

Originally posted by Berikai

This game is nowhere near profitable atm,maybe years end,but not now.To think it is show's who's uninformed amirite?They may have about 120 mill back right now.People seem to think a $60 box sale = $60 to EA/Bio and it's lucky to be half that.Or should I say 1/10 to you Axe?

Simple math regarding box sales and modeling a harsh decline (losing 30% subs per month) showed $200mm revenue in like 4 months after launch.  Literally the only unknowns were retail store profit margins (which are said to be quite small, and certainly aren't 50% MSR) and ongoing post-launch run rate.

The link posted in this very thread is EA itself pointing out how profitable the game is with 1.3mm players.

Feel free to keep your arbitrary, hastily-drawn opinion with no basis in facts.  Meanwhile I'll crunch numbers with experience having actually produced games and worked closely with the product managers running them -- and discover the game is profitable independantly even before the EA link confirmed it ("profitable at 500k subscribers" is just about where my uber-conservative numbers crunch put the game 4-5 months out...at which point it became profitable.)

This is a breakdown of where the money goes for a $60 game:

• Developer - $15
• Publisher - $20
• Licensing - $10
• Retailer - $12
• Manufacturing and Distribution - $3

Digital sales will differ somewhat.

Somehow, I think your number crunching and 'experience' of game production might be... lacking foundation.

'Post-launch run rate' for this game, which was released before it was ready and missing major features, is going to be high. They must still be paying a large team of developers just to get the game stable and out of pseudo beta status.

I'd be suprised if they make a profit by this time next year!

Didn't EA said that they needed 1m subs for a year to break even?

Originally posted by jacklo

Originally posted by Axehilt

Originally posted by Berikai

This game is nowhere near profitable atm,maybe years end,but not now.To think it is show's who's uninformed amirite?They may have about 120 mill back right now.People seem to think a $60 box sale = $60 to EA/Bio and it's lucky to be half that.Or should I say 1/10 to you Axe?

Simple math regarding box sales and modeling a harsh decline (losing 30% subs per month) showed $200mm revenue in like 4 months after launch.  Literally the only unknowns were retail store profit margins (which are said to be quite small, and certainly aren't 50% MSR) and ongoing post-launch run rate.

The link posted in this very thread is EA itself pointing out how profitable the game is with 1.3mm players.

Feel free to keep your arbitrary, hastily-drawn opinion with no basis in facts.  Meanwhile I'll crunch numbers with experience having actually produced games and worked closely with the product managers running them -- and discover the game is profitable independantly even before the EA link confirmed it ("profitable at 500k subscribers" is just about where my uber-conservative numbers crunch put the game 4-5 months out...at which point it became profitable.)

This is a breakdown of where the money goes for a $60 game:

• Developer - $15
• Publisher - $20
• Licensing - $10
• Retailer - $12
• Manufacturing and Distribution - $3

Digital sales will differ somewhat.

Somehow, I think your number crunching and 'experience' of game production might be... lacking foundation.

'Post-launch run rate' for this game, which was released before it was ready and missing major features, is going to be high. They must still be paying a large team of developers just to get the game stable and out of pseudo beta status.

I'd be suprised if they make a profit by this time next year!

 

Doesn't Lucas Arts get some of that money too? Or is that covered in the licensing expense?

I think it's safe to say that the game is experiencing negative growth (more people leaving than joining). 

This is not really surprising given that this is what happens in most subscription-based MMOs after their launch. WoW Classic (and TBC I guess) was the only MMO different in this regard - they continued to grow after release. 

From this point on, I doubt SWTOR's population will grow. It's very unlikely that it will, given how population works out in MMOs. 

Originally posted by Precusor

Originally posted by maplestone

Originally posted by Myria

1.3 million paying customers, making it easily the second largest western MMO, is... Dying?

It's a question of return on investment.  If you cut through the cheering/jeering from the stands, there is a real serious question here about the entire future of our hobby.

If the game is sufficiently profitable, it will become the template for the entire next generation of clones (from the tiny collection of companies able to afford to pay the cost).  If the game fails to turn a profit, it will be unlikely we see another fully voice-acted story-driven MMO attempted any time soon. 

Given the astronomical sums whispered about how much was spent to construct the game, it is entirely possible for it to have one of the highest subscription rates ever and still be the death of its infant subgenre.  That said, there are so many contradictory numbers and so much spin flying around that I'm finding it difficult to get a feel on exactly what's going on.  I guess only time will tell how investors and publishers are reading these reports.

EA spent around 100 million to developed SWTOR and they got all that money back from their box sales.

 

 

Got a source that says they spent only 25% more than it took to make vanilla WoW, especially considering Blizzard didn't have to pay a third party for their IP, and were able to do a substantial amount of their marketing through battle.net?

Originally posted by spaceport

Didn't EA said that they needed 1m subs for a year to break even?

It was actually 500k subs over 12 months to break even.

They also said 1 million over 12 months would be a good profit but nothing to write home about, the investors would not be happy!

at least 1/2-1/3 came back to play the free month and left so u are looking at about 600k-800k or less.

Originally posted by Berikai

Originally posted by Axehilt

This blows my earlier model out of the water in terms of subscriber retention.

Running the numbers I think I used 1.6m as a baseline and assumed a 30% bleed in customers every month.  Even with that ultra-conservative "the game is dying zomg" style of customer loss, the game broke even after only 3-4 months against their $200MM cost to produce it.

Sounds like they're doing way better than that and probably broke even on the 2nd or 3rd month and unless they're still running the full team (extremely doubtful) they're swimming in profits.

Out of 2.4 mill sales they probably made 70-80 mill profit max as they only get a portion of the box sales and that's not even counting I believe %35 to LA.So maybe 50 mill profit.The first 30 days are included and when you figure 1.5mill subs at $15x3 month's = about $67 mill you're not even close to breaking even.By the time you figure server cost's and such and more sub bleed they may turn a profit by years end.

 

Then you gotta factor in the 65 mill marketing blitz they launched, then the cut to the people outside the company who bankrolled this project (there's always a few of those)

Originally posted by Games888

at least 1/2-1/3 came back to play the free month and left so u are looking at about 600k-800k or less.

You know this.. how?

Originally posted by Distopia

Originally posted by Blackwater56

Originally posted by Distopia

Originally posted by Blackwater56

Originally posted by FrodoFragins

 

Personally, 1.3 million as of March 31 is still pretty good

Uh, no. Not when you sold 2.3 million copies total

 

So SWTOR lost 1 million subs AND STILL hasn't merged server.

 

That's all that can be said about the business mantality of EA. 

And yes, the free month was included. The report was from the end of April

What 1.3 million isn't a decent sub base? What?

THEY LOST

ONE MILLION

SUBSCRIBERS

 

In 5 months.

WoW, with 13 million subs, lost 1 million IN ONE YEAR

 

SWTOR has taken a MASSIVE hit.

Massive hit sure, but that's the norm, people could say that about just about every MMO since 05. But 1.3 mil is something many sub based games wish they had, many never even reach a million in sales.

So, you grant the numbers are a near 50% loss, and you spin it with "so, everyone wishes they still had 1.3 mill."  I actually am not as eeyorish on the numbers.  But if I was, I wouldn't be trying to say it was okay.  That's terrible numbers, and proof more of the power of hype than anything else.  That's not something to look forward to for the future of MMOs.

Originally posted by Precusor

Originally posted by Games888

at least 1/2-1/3 came back to play the free month and left so u are looking at about 600k-800k or less.

You know this.. how?

It strikes me as an obvious conjecture. 

Originally posted by Precusor

Originally posted by Games888

at least 1/2-1/3 came back to play the free month and left so u are looking at about 600k-800k or less.

You know this.. how?

He doesnt know, another wonder kid pulling figures out of his.... well you know.

Originally posted by jacklo

Originally posted by spaceport

Didn't EA said that they needed 1m subs for a year to break even?

It was actually 500k subs over 12 months to break even.

They also said 1 million over 12 months would be a good profit but nothing to write home about, the investors would not be happy!

 

Looks like Axehilt "inside the industry" analysis is laughable.

And let's not forget how LA get's 30% of the subs income :P

Originally posted by jacklo

Originally posted by spaceport

Didn't EA said that they needed 1m subs for a year to break even?

It was actually 500k subs over 12 months to break even.

They also said 1 million over 12 months would be a good profit but nothing to write home about, the investors would not be happy!

 

You know nothing about business so stop trying.  If the break even point is 500K then double that amount is definitely good news because its nearly all profit from that point on.  Lets not forget that WoW did not start at 12 million subs but built up to that.

Way i look at it is that SWTOR has all the bases covered for an mmo with a story that none of them can compare too.  Soon they will have dungeon finder too.

          Question for everyone responding to this thread about boasting about numbers??? Does this 1.3 million they showed include the people who signed up for 6 months game time by being noobs and not knowing what they were doing??? 

          Because i feel that in those numbers maybe 1/3 or more are stuck with a 6 month subscription and I'm pretty sure they got counted regardless whethere they are playing or not!  So in Actuality we won't know the real effect until the next quarter, considering 6 month subscriptions probably will all end in late April , Early May! I wouldn't be exicted on those numbers as of yet till we see the numbers then!