I reckon it'll be down to 450K subs by Sept this year.

no one will really know the sub # except EA b/c they can just keep giving out free month to increase that #.  Buy 1 month and play 1 month free = sub too even tho the guy is playing the free month.

Originally posted by JYCowboy

In true form, they still are in the first year.  They got time to add things  and start really turning the end-game around.  However, I think Lucas Arts is to scared to deviate from thier Market Research Reports to add anything of significates to save the subs.  They seem to proud of thier 4th Pillar (story and voice) to realize the game needs other things for its players to do.  They probably got a Card Game in design right now even though thats not the direction to go at this point; not yet anyway.  My hope is they could turn the game around like STO but try avoid the mistakes.  STO really shot themselves in the foot with the whole Lock-Box Key thing.

I think it's funny that market researches think non-traditional MMOs are a dangerous venture, AND YET every WoWclone has failed to meet expectations.

It's like they don't get the fucking hint.

Originally posted by Jason2444

Does he take new MMOs coming out into account or does he just draw the trend over to March 2013?

Don't think the said analyst has done anything more than look at the graphs on torstatus.net tbh.

Originally posted by Monorojo

http://www.mmorpg.com/gamelist.cfm/game/367/view/news/read/24228/Star-Wars-The-Old-Republic-Subscriptions-Declining-Says-Analyst.html

 

At the end of Q1 of fiscal year 2013, the analyst group is predicting a fall in subscriptions to 1.25 million.

 

That is an amazing retention rate when you think about it, and all the dom and gloom posts here would not lead one to believe that 1.25 out of 1.7 million would stay subbed. That would give SWTOr at 73% retention rate since Januaryy. Many here have been vehemtly stating that sub number are likely already under  1million. Guess that shuts that crowd up eh?

 

Anyway, good news for Bioware!

 Analysts also predicted that SWTOR would sell 3M to 4M boxes by the end of march or something in that style. An analyst prediction is just that, a prediction, not information or anything. That's not even news.

Originally posted by JoeyMMO

 Analysts also predicted that SWTOR would sell 3M to 4M boxes by the end of march or something in that style. An analyst prediction is just that, a prediction, not information or anything. That's not even news.

But that WAS an acurate prediction given the trends... until the tital wave of negativity hit.

Which is why I think this analyst is just observing trends and predicting without taking new MMO releases later this year into account.

Originally posted by Anolev

Name one other MMO, other than WoW, which has ever had 1.2M subscribers.  

You guys are all acting like 1.2M subscribers is complete crap, and meanwhile no other game in the history of MMO's has ever achieved even that.  Geesh.

Aion crushed that number... before it went F2P.

TOR will lose a LOT of subs this year.  Some with TERA but not a lot.  Some with D3.  A lot from GW2.  Some from WOW's expansion.  I have little doubt that by end of this year they will be down to 500K or less.  Judging by my guild of around 30 people now(used to be over 150) at least 3/4 of us are planning to play GW2.  They need to fire their development team and put in peope with a clue.

Playing a bit Advocatus Diaboli, 400-600k is the norm for a MMO. WoW was an exception for many reasons, a one time miracle, at least in the western market. I don't see any MMO having substantially more in the long run. People just don't stand in one MMO for years anymore, when we have 20 new MMORPGs every year. When WOW and EQ2 were new, we saw one or two MMOs per year. Grinding to max level took ages. Such days are just gone. So while it sure IS a huge drop, I think expecting anything else from a MMO today is delusional. Maybe GW2 because it's free. But no other Triple AAA MMO will fare better. People rush through content like locusts, get 2 max level chars in 3-4 months and move on to the new MMO. I doubt that can be avoided, unless you make a REALLY really great MMO.

Which these days I doubt we will ever see again.

Originally posted by Elikal

Playing a bit Advocatus Diaboli, 400-600k is the norm for a MMO. WoW was an exception for many reasons, a one time miracle, at least in the western market. I don't see any MMO having substantially more in the long run. People just don't stand in one MMO for years anymore, when we have 20 new MMORPGs every year. When WOW and EQ2 were new, we saw one or two MMOs per year. Grinding to max level took ages. Such days are just gone. So while it sure IS a huge drop, I think expecting anything else from a MMO today is delusional. Maybe GW2 because it's free. But no other Triple AAA MMO will fare better. People rush through content like locusts, get 2 max level chars in 3-4 months and move on to the new MMO. I doubt that can be avoided, unless you make a REALLY really great MMO.

Which these days I doubt we will ever see again.

I think that's an overlooked point

As much as some complained about "the grind" - it kept a lot of people playing for longer periods of time.  The trick - of course - is having there be a reason for the grind and keep people feeling like they are making progress... 

You want it to be slow... but not sooo slow/boring that players quit :D

 I think what generally happens with subs is like this. A new games comes out and people have new hopes, these are dashed when people realise they are just as crap at the new one as they were the one before.  They remember the old games where it was not how good you were but how long you played that mattered. Now the games do not cater so much for these players their ego's get hurt and they will not recognise the truth, maybe they were not as good as they thought. It is then portrayed as the games fault. They then leave bitter and go to the next game and the cycle starts again (western companies are moving away from grind)

 Not saying this is true in all cases but i bet this accounts for many.

Originally posted by Majinash

Originally posted by Anolev

Name one other MMO, other than WoW, which has ever had 1.2M subscribers.  

You guys are all acting like 1.2M subscribers is complete crap, and meanwhile no other game in the history of MMO's has ever achieved even that.  Geesh.

Aion crushed that number... before it went F2P.

Most numbers for last few years are purely speculation, as its normally more beneficial to keep people guessing. Even the mighty WOW has been quiet as it probably does not want to let on how its bleeding.

But yes Aion confirmed having well over 3 million, bordering on 4 mill - but unconfirmed.

How about Runescape? Didnt AOC and Warhammer online break 1 million ( from memory) Even RIFT was hinted at getting past the 1 million mark not long after launch

And the last point - how do you classify subscribers, all this rubbish that SWTOR is throwing at people with free time, trial account blah blah - I can bet your life they are counted as "active subscribers"

So you may want to step outside your bubble.....The force is not strong in this one!

Originally posted by Professor78

And the last point - how do you classify subscribers, all this rubbish that SWTOR is throwing at people with free time, trial account blah blah - I can bet your life they are counted as "active subscribers"

 

It's fairly easy to bet someone else's life but would you bet your immortal soul?  The answer is if you're on free time you're counted as a subscriber. Everyone counts those because they are in fact subscribers. You don't get the free time without being one. Trial accounts on the other hand are not counted.

Impossible to predict imo how big sub drop will be.

EA-Bioware fuc** up and they are and will lose players ,but when those bleed will stop and how big loses will be - seriously there is no telling.

Imo it will do worse than those analyst say but propably far better than doom-sayers are telling as well.

Originally posted by Professor78

Originally posted by Majinash

Originally posted by Anolev

Name one other MMO, other than WoW, which has ever had 1.2M subscribers.  

You guys are all acting like 1.2M subscribers is complete crap, and meanwhile no other game in the history of MMO's has ever achieved even that.  Geesh.

Aion crushed that number... before it went F2P.

Most numbers for last few years are purely speculation, as its normally more beneficial to keep people guessing. Even the mighty WOW has been quiet as it probably does not want to let on how its bleeding.

But yes Aion confirmed having well over 3 million, bordering on 4 mill - but unconfirmed.

How about Runescape? Didnt AOC and Warhammer online break 1 million ( from memory) Even RIFT was hinted at getting past the 1 million mark not long after launch

And the last point - how do you classify subscribers, all this rubbish that SWTOR is throwing at people with free time, trial account blah blah - I can bet your life they are counted as "active subscribers"

So you may want to step outside your bubble.....The force is not strong in this one!

Aion did remarkably well.

In Asia. 

In west it did medicore at best.

Originally posted by Professor78

Originally posted by Majinash

Originally posted by Anolev

Name one other MMO, other than WoW, which has ever had 1.2M subscribers.  

You guys are all acting like 1.2M subscribers is complete crap, and meanwhile no other game in the history of MMO's has ever achieved even that.  Geesh.

Aion crushed that number... before it went F2P.

Most numbers for last few years are purely speculation, as its normally more beneficial to keep people guessing. Even the mighty WOW has been quiet as it probably does not want to let on how its bleeding.

But yes Aion confirmed having well over 3 million, bordering on 4 mill - but unconfirmed.

How about Runescape? Didnt AOC and Warhammer online break 1 million ( from memory) Even RIFT was hinted at getting past the 1 million mark not long after launch

And the last point - how do you classify subscribers, all this rubbish that SWTOR is throwing at people with free time, trial account blah blah - I can bet your life they are counted as "active subscribers"

So you may want to step outside your bubble.....The force is not strong in this one!

So this line of discussion often leads to someone asserting that we are only interested in western subscriptions/attrition; which leads to someone else countering that ignoring asian markets is unnecessarily biased and/or even racist.  Related to these differing views, one might wonder which market's mainstream consumer's opinion matters most when determining the value of any given MMO.  Somehow we keep treading on this very same topic without ever reaching the obvious and logical conclusion that we are in fact off topic, and that our assumptions are bizarrely out of touch with what is actually meaningful to the issue.

So, subscription/population numbers matter to us because, one, we want to have a reasonable amount of other people populating the MMO world so that certain events and activities, crucial to the game's ability to engage/entertain us, are viable, insofar as certain events and activities require a certain level of population saturation; and two, we want the developer/publisher to have enough revenue/profit with which to reinvest into the game's continued viability, with obvious and demonstrative reference to those systems from which we draw the most value (as in those that engage and entertain us).  And yes this post has become rather convoluted, but I still think this is far far less convoluted than the constant and meaningless back and forth bickering about which game has this or that many people playing or paying or sub'ing or free-to-playing or even buy-to-playing.

And if somone comes back with something like yeah, these are forums so stop trying to make sense of it all and just let discussion happen; I agree but I already spent too much time writing this to simply not press the reply button.  Also, I'm right.

Originally posted by Karahandras

Ummm, wasn't there a release somewhere recently basically stating they were on their way to a million subs? i.e. they have an undisclosed number somewhere between 500k and up?

If so how exactly is this number going to 'fall' to 1.25mil in 9 months?

*edit* or should I say under a mil and falling?

They have 1.7M subs at some point after release. That has been publicly stated.

Originally posted by fenistil

Originally posted by Professor78

Originally posted by Majinash

Originally posted by Anolev

Name one other MMO, other than WoW, which has ever had 1.2M subscribers.  

You guys are all acting like 1.2M subscribers is complete crap, and meanwhile no other game in the history of MMO's has ever achieved even that.  Geesh.

Aion crushed that number... before it went F2P.

Most numbers for last few years are purely speculation, as its normally more beneficial to keep people guessing. Even the mighty WOW has been quiet as it probably does not want to let on how its bleeding.

But yes Aion confirmed having well over 3 million, bordering on 4 mill - but unconfirmed.

How about Runescape? Didnt AOC and Warhammer online break 1 million ( from memory) Even RIFT was hinted at getting past the 1 million mark not long after launch

And the last point - how do you classify subscribers, all this rubbish that SWTOR is throwing at people with free time, trial account blah blah - I can bet your life they are counted as "active subscribers"

So you may want to step outside your bubble.....The force is not strong in this one!

Aion did remarkably well.

In Asia. 

 

In west it did medicore at best.

I saw someone provide a link that stated that around 90% of ncsofts income came from asia, but i could be wrong on the number if someone wants to correct.

Originally posted by nariusseldon

Originally posted by Karahandras

Ummm, wasn't there a release somewhere recently basically stating they were on their way to a million subs? i.e. they have an undisclosed number somewhere between 500k and up?

If so how exactly is this number going to 'fall' to 1.25mil in 9 months?

*edit* or should I say under a mil and falling?

They have 1.7M subs at some point after release. That has been publicly stated.

It was from their first quarterly report which i think means it was 31st december 2011 that they had 1.7 mil

Analysts:  People that make things up based on who pays them the most.