Originally posted by Anolev

Originally posted by Greenzor

Originally posted by Monorojo

http://www.mmorpg.com/gamelist.cfm/game/367/view/news/read/24228/Star-Wars-The-Old-Republic-Subscriptions-Declining-Says-Analyst.html

 

At the end of Q1 of fiscal year 2013, the analyst group is predicting a fall in subscriptions to 1.25 million.

 

That is an amazing retention rate when you think about it, and all the dom and gloom posts here would not lead one to believe that 1.25 out of 1.7 million would stay subbed. That would give SWTOr at 73% retention rate since Januaryy. Many here have been vehemtly stating that sub number are likely already under  1million. Guess that shuts that crowd up eh?

 

Anyway, good news for Bioware!

Retention rate? You're forgetting the new subscribers. I'm not an analyst myself, but 1.2m subscribers after all the marketing, the high inversion and the big IP doesn't sound that good.

Name one other MMO, other than WoW, which has ever had 1.2M subscribers.  

You guys are all acting like 1.2M subscribers is complete crap, and meanwhile no other game in the history of MMO's has ever achieved even that.  Geesh.

Yeah, and that includes SWTOR.

I think every game will drop subs this year not just SWTOR due to the volume of new games coming out, games that have be awaited for years are now going to release in the same year, to players will be bouncing between alot of games.

Originally posted by huskie77

I love how so many people here say they don't believe the analysts but then expect us to take their analysis! Hahaha, I love this place.

So you believe an analyst that predicts SWOTOR subscriber figures will DECLINE to 1.25m when EA's former CFO Eric Brown has informed us that the Subscriber figures are already only 875,000+?

In other words, you're believing an analyst who says subscriber figures will decline UPWARDS?

Originally posted by Monorojo

http://www.mmorpg.com/gamelist.cfm/game/367/view/news/read/24228/Star-Wars-The-Old-Republic-Subscriptions-Declining-Says-Analyst.html

 

At the end of Q1 of fiscal year 2013, the analyst group is predicting a fall in subscriptions to 1.25 million.

 

That is an amazing retention rate when you think about it, and all the dom and gloom posts here would not lead one to believe that 1.25 out of 1.7 million would stay subbed. That would give SWTOr at 73% retention rate since Januaryy. Many here have been vehemtly stating that sub number are likely already under  1million. Guess that shuts that crowd up eh?

 

Anyway, good news for Bioware!

You ever hear the phrase "garbage in, garbage out?"  It's what you do when predicting how future events will react based on present assumptions that may or may not reflect reality. 

You really can't make predictions about gaming behavior a year on out.  Actually, according to the analysis, the game is slated to lose probably I'd wager 40% of it's current population base.  (New arrivals replace old ones leaving.)  This really is only slightly better than other MMOs, it is just on a different scale.

It's a far cry from the days when people were boasting projections of 3-5 million before launch.

This doesn't really shut the crowd up, because BW hasn't released the actual subscription numbers.  The analyst could just be working with the assumption that 1.7 million people are currently playing.  Though there's no way of knowing that.  Hence, "garbage in, garbage out."  I'd say a 25-30% burn rate is pretty accurate for any game, but what if we are dealing with 800k to 1 million, instead of 1.7 million?  The numbers look a little different.

Besides, when the game isn't even 6 months old, and you are already talking about a future with 1/4 of your playerbase gone, and that is by conservative estimates, that isn't what you want to be talking about.  Notice how the analyst doesn't think EA's latest marketing campaign will pay off.  Bioware isn't out promoting this as positive news, because they realize it isn't.  Only the fanboi will try to spin this.

Originally posted by Monorojo

Originally posted by adam_nox

Originally posted by Monorojo

That is an amazing retention rate when you think about it, and all the dom and gloom posts here would not lead one to believe that 1.25 out of 1.7 million would stay subbed. That would give SWTOr at 73% retention rate since Januaryy. Many here have been vehemtly stating that sub number are likely already under  1million. Guess that shuts that crowd up eh?

lol you believe an analyst.  Do you even know what those are?

I believe a real analyst over the armchair analysts you can find here at MMORPG.com (likely blizzard viral marketers). No question about that sir.

WTF, you mean Blizzard is supposed to be paying me for this?

Originally posted by Anolev

Originally posted by Sephiroso

Originally posted by Anolev

Originally posted by Greenzor

Originally posted by Monorojo

http://www.mmorpg.com/gamelist.cfm/game/367/view/news/read/24228/Star-Wars-The-Old-Republic-Subscriptions-Declining-Says-Analyst.html

 

At the end of Q1 of fiscal year 2013, the analyst group is predicting a fall in subscriptions to 1.25 million.

 

That is an amazing retention rate when you think about it, and all the dom and gloom posts here would not lead one to believe that 1.25 out of 1.7 million would stay subbed. That would give SWTOr at 73% retention rate since Januaryy. Many here have been vehemtly stating that sub number are likely already under  1million. Guess that shuts that crowd up eh?

 

Anyway, good news for Bioware!

Retention rate? You're forgetting the new subscribers. I'm not an analyst myself, but 1.2m subscribers after all the marketing, the high inversion and the big IP doesn't sound that good.

Name one other MMO, other than WoW, which has ever had 1.2M subscribers.  

You guys are all acting like 1.2M subscribers is complete crap, and meanwhile no other game in the history of MMO's has ever achieved even that.  Geesh.

no other game in the US maybe

Yep, fair point.  I'll re-state.  

Name one other "western MMO" that has ever had 1.2M subscribers.

Name one other "western MMO" that has ever had 1.2M subscribers and came with a $200 mil+ price tag and the most marketing per time period for any game, ever.

TOR cost at least twice as much as the next most expensive Western AAA MMO to make.

So expectations were sky high, on many fronts.

Too bad they spent all their time on hype and marketing and not enough on making good gameplay.

For the record, that 1.2 mil number is probably crap, and includes all the trials and free time and buddy keys they have been giving out like candy, even if the 1.2 mil number is not a lie.

1.2 million paying subs? No way.

People know what 1.7 mil subs looks like, if they were around for launch (both server load and at in game locations) and right now, the numbers are not even close. Probably not even half, more like one third of the original player numbers.

Originally posted by Hurvart

Originally posted by huskie77

I love how so many people here say they don't believe the analysts but then expect us to take their analysis! Hahaha, I love this place.

Analysts are payed by someone. They are not working for free. Most of the time the analyst is in some way trying to make the ones who are paying happy. Like if its a politician that wants to spend the anylysts will tell him its good and OK to spend more. Because they know that is what he wants to hear. And they want to keep the job.

So I think any prediction made by pro analysts should be taken with a grain of salt. And the fact that they believe they can predict subscription numbers one year from now really makes all my warning bells ring. Its impossible. To much can happen that we know nothing about. Unless they have invented a time machine there is no way they can predict that. They would probably have a better chance predicting the weather one year from now.

I think the problem is more working off flawed assumptions rather than with an agenda.  What he predicted was honestly pretty standard fare for an MMO.  It gets it's peak pretty early, then begins a slow decline.  25% loss after a year might be a little less than typical, or not, but I don't think it's that out of the ordinary.

Of course, "typical" MMOs didn't have 250-300 million thrown at them by the biggest name in gaming.  That marketing campaign EA is rolling out right now, you have to add that to the costs of their budget.  Yet according to the analyst, they will still be losing subscribers at a pretty significant rate.  The advertising doesn't stop the bleeding, it merely lessens it.

This analysis doesn't include the positive or negative impacts of 1.2, or any future decisions.  It also starts from the assumption that EA claims the game has 1.7 million players.  If that assumption is wrong, so then is everything else.

Analyst schmanalyst pulling numbers out of his ass... we ll get the proper numbers eventually and i think they r gonna be quite a lot less than 1,25M.

There s a good old saying: Where there s smoke there s fire... and the ammount of smoke EA is raising lately there is something going horribly wrong for them with SWTOR.

I mean come on... EA giving people a free month?!?!! I know the people actually playing the game love that idea but to me its just a desperation move comming from otherwise moneygrabing EA!

It's a good thing that they are on their heels. Some of those design decisions deserve consequences, otherwise they would have been reinforced for the deficiencies and would have certainly kept the same stupid mentality. Now they will be forced to adapt and evolve, or die.  

Originally posted by SonicTHI

Analyst schmanalyst pulling numbers out of his ass... we ll get the proper numbers eventually and i think they r gonna be quite a lot less than 1,25M.

There s a good old saying: Where there s smoke there s fire... and the ammount of smoke EA is raising lately there is something going horribly wrong for them with SWTOR.

I mean come on... EA giving people a free month?!?!! I know the people actually playing the game love that idea but to me its just a desperation move comming from otherwise moneygrabing EA!

Well to be fair of the analyst, he was using numbers probably before the constant free weekends started.  One of them was almost certainly a distraction from the Mass Effect 3 debacle.  Others, yeah, game has been losing subs, and they need to make it look more populated.

That's the only reason you have a sub based game and you offer a free whatever.

You guys forget the convenient truth that playing less =/= unsub.

Of course there will be less activity now than compared to launch, that is not indication that the subs are under a million.

A legit analysts words weigh more than 20 trolls on mmorpg "special analysis" no matter how hard you kids cry and try lol

Originally posted by Monorojo

You guys forget the convenient truth that playing less =/= unsub.

 

Of course there will be less activity now than compared to launch, that is not indication that the subs are under a million.

 

A legit analysts words weigh more than 20 trolls on mmorpg "special analysis" no matter how hard you kids cry and try lol

Oh you're gonna come down so hard lol.

Monorojo, I hope in 3 months when those numbers are revised to 500,000 you are here to eat crow. Actually, I doubt people would still be following SWTOR to even care to predict its pathetic retention rate, including you.

This is the same guy that also agreed that TOR would have 2 million subscribers by end of CY2012.

This is the same guy that months before called the game "highly derivative" and "unimpressive."

Check him out... he offers a lot of analysis about VG... I don't see anything to make me think he knows more about game sales than anyone in these forums.  Hell... he bases his conclusions off of TOR server stats sites... c'mon.

I do the same thing and have probably put a lot more research and thought into it than this guy... 1.25 million paying subscribers just doesn't sound right.  Maybe there will be some way to fudge those numbers up - but I'd put a reasonable estimate of people actually paying $15/mo @ 800k (and falling...) 

1.25 million "active" subscribers or 1.25 million paying subscribers?

Originally posted by Treebyrn

(IE do trial accounts count as a subscriber)

I think Bioware would include trial accounts as subscribers, because trial access is a form of arranged access. They included players who had a free month in that 1.7 million number. I doubt they would pass down another way to bloat numbers.

Are you sure there isnt a typo in the title?

Should be "Analyst predicts just 450k subs by Q1 2013"

That seems more plausable

BW knows their game better than any analyst and even they couldn't predict the massive drop in subs after only a few months release, if they could have predicted it they would not have released the POS when they did. Analyst are not taking into account the massive impact that games like TSW and GW2 will have on TOR.

I applaud anyone still playing TOR. I had 2million credits on my account and still canceled a month ago and feel they should pay me for wasting all those hours I did in their ultra ordinary sub par attempt at an MMO. I would litteraly rather play nothing than play TOR. IMO Rift puts TOR to so much shame it's not even funny. No Rift doesn't have the billion dollar IP and no where near the budget but game engine, grafics and smoothness are so much better. Had Trion had $100M and the Star Wars IP they really could have done it justice. BW execs that made these questionable game decision such as Ohlen and Dickenson should be fired IMO.

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Originally posted by Monorojo

http://www.mmorpg.com/gamelist.cfm/game/367/view/news/read/24228/Star-Wars-The-Old-Republic-Subscriptions-Declining-Says-Analyst.html

 

At the end of Q1 of fiscal year 2013, the analyst group is predicting a fall in subscriptions to 1.25 million.

 

That is an amazing retention rate when you think about it, and all the dom and gloom posts here would not lead one to believe that 1.25 out of 1.7 million would stay subbed. That would give SWTOr at 73% retention rate since Januaryy. Many here have been vehemtly stating that sub number are likely already under  1million. Guess that shuts that crowd up eh?

 

Anyway, good news for Bioware!

It doesn't matter. The majority of people on this site know the "truth" and that truth is the one that suits them best...