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Age of Conan: Unchained

Age of Conan 

General Discussion  » How is pop

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28 posts found
  DaSpack

Novice Member

Joined: 11/11/09
Posts: 593

4/13/12 3:00:58 PM#21
Originally posted by Connmacart

 



Originally posted by DaSpack


Originally posted by Connmacart



Originally posted by DaSpack



Originally posted by Connmacart
Erm I don't see how you could ever use revenue as a source for player population in a f2p game. You can't count the people that never buy anything. Then there are the people with a sub that also use the cashshop. You won't know the payment plan that people use for subs either. I can go on for awhile with this.
The biggest error though is making an assumption how much a player pays funcom. You can not make a guess and hope to get the correct end result it doesn't work.
Constantly running into the same people in different areas will tell you player population isn't exactly high. And my girkfriend who still plays does see the same names quite often.


Well thats the thing it's a F2P game with microtransactions and it would be very very very conservative to make a 10 USD pr month assumption on all players in average. If you then are willing to use this assumption you easily can derive the minimum amount of players. This number is fare above 100 000 it's actually about 150 000 ish. All these players are naturally not logged on simultanously, some in night, some in day, some every third day and some just every 2 weeks. What is common though is that these are all unique different people playing the game (some more than the others).
Population is more than decent actually, otherwise we would not have been able to complete the very hard raid dungeons, but our guilds are healthy and rather large if we set up an event on specific weekday. This is coming from someone that is playing the game. If you want a guess on what the development will be in future I think we will see growth. There is a lot of new material coming in that is really epic (i.e. crafting).


There are only 3 guilds that have killed the Garden Imp and 2 that have killed the Zodiac on Crom. General Sheng has been nerfed quite a few times now and the basilisk has always been a push over. so because there are about a 150, very generous here, people able to do the new raid encounters does not make the population decent.
Circle of Eternity my old guild, the guild my girlfriend still belongs to, absorbed Band of Brothers a few months back. If the playerbase had truly been healthy then getting people for the top raiding guild on Crom would have been easy and they wouldn't have had to agree to taking them in.
And again you can not make assumptions on how much people pay, not without knowing how much of the revenue is from subs. You are fooling yourself if you think you can.


Well the end game of AoC is not lacking any more. The last and hardest raids are no walk in the park by any means and few are those able to actually complete them. This does however not tell much about the population in general. One thing is for sure the revenue AoC generate have to come from customers and to say that millions of USD is comming from a very few players is also not right. The question comes down to what is the correct conversion rate. 10 USD pr person is a lot for a F2P game, so I think I am guessing very conservatively here. Some people play the game but never pays a dime... you see what I am saying? 10 USD pr month is a conservative guess and even with this you end up on about 150 000 players. If you want to guess on outrageous 20 USD pr month pr customer you still have 75 000 players... So regardless of how you want to spin this the revenue in itself gives away that there is a good group of people playing AoC. Also that amount is picking up now that SWTOR is winding down.

 

Let me quote yourself from another thread.



lalala and the wheel goes around.

 

Keep deluding yourself about player population all you want.

Oki, fine I'll accept that if you can explain to me where the revenue comes from. NOONE have donated it out of kindness. It comes from players, period.. And btw that matches well with my own observations ingame. February was the worst month populationwise, but it is picking up again now.

 

The Ultimate Breakdown

  tares

Novice Member

Joined: 8/16/11
Posts: 384

4/13/12 7:13:59 PM#22
Originally posted by DaSpack
Originally posted by Connmacart

 


Oki, fine I'll accept that if you can explain to me where the revenue comes from. NOONE have donated it out of kindness. It comes from players, period.. And btw that matches well with my own observations ingame. February was the worst month populationwise, but it is picking up again now.

 

Ok 4,284,000 over three months .  Minus 2 million the average fourth quarter income from the two years before AoC's launch (2,146,000 + 1,745,000)/2  http://www.funcom.com/ir_archive/files/Funcom_Q407_report.pdf    AO brings in a over a million a quarter and Funcom launched two games since AoC so they should be generating revenue or why would a business launch them?

2,284,000 / 3 months =  $761,333 / month from AoC

761,333 / $ 15 subscriber (because USD < EURO conversion subscriptions cost more) =  50,755 subscribers

BUT WAIT! http://l3cdn.funcom.com/funcomportal/pdf/investor/2012/funcom-4q11-presentation_final.pdf page 17.

funcom said the cash shop matches revenue from subscribers when projecting TSW. so subscription is only half of AoC income and cash shop is the other half!

50,755 x (1/2) =  25,377 subscribers

There must be some free to play players that use the cah shop, who knows how many it takes to match sub revenue but Funcom claims a 1:1 ratio of cash shop:subscription revenue. Also, remember, Funcom claims revenues to be going down next quarter.

 

  DaSpack

Novice Member

Joined: 11/11/09
Posts: 593

4/15/12 3:05:59 AM#23
Originally posted by tares
Originally posted by DaSpack
Originally posted by Connmacart

 


Oki, fine I'll accept that if you can explain to me where the revenue comes from. NOONE have donated it out of kindness. It comes from players, period.. And btw that matches well with my own observations ingame. February was the worst month populationwise, but it is picking up again now.

 

Ok 4,284,000 over three months .  Minus 2 million the average fourth quarter income from the two years before AoC's launch (2,146,000 + 1,745,000)/2  http://www.funcom.com/ir_archive/files/Funcom_Q407_report.pdf    AO brings in a over a million a quarter and Funcom launched two games since AoC so they should be generating revenue or why would a business launch them?

2,284,000 / 3 months =  $761,333 / month from AoC

761,333 / $ 15 subscriber (because USD < EURO conversion subscriptions cost more) =  50,755 subscribers

BUT WAIT! http://l3cdn.funcom.com/funcomportal/pdf/investor/2012/funcom-4q11-presentation_final.pdf page 17.

funcom said the cash shop matches revenue from subscribers when projecting TSW. so subscription is only half of AoC income and cash shop is the other half!

50,755 x (1/2) =  25,377 subscribers

There must be some free to play players that use the cah shop, who knows how many it takes to match sub revenue but Funcom claims a 1:1 ratio of cash shop:subscription revenue. Also, remember, Funcom claims revenues to be going down next quarter.

 

 

wth you lnk in a repport from 2007 to prove that AO have 1 mill revenue. Its 2012 and AO have close to 0 revenue.... This is where you proove that you dont care about the argument/discussion anymore. You are pretty much ready to fudge anything to be right. 4.2 mill/3 = 1.4 mill pr month. Each player using 10 USD equals 140 000 players.. 140 000 that would be F2Pers and Preium players.

The Ultimate Breakdown

  tares

Novice Member

Joined: 8/16/11
Posts: 384

4/15/12 5:01:43 AM#24
Originally posted by DaSpack
Originally posted by tares
Originally posted by DaSpack
Originally posted by Connmacart

 


Oki, fine I'll accept that if you can explain to me where the revenue comes from. NOONE have donated it out of kindness. It comes from players, period.. And btw that matches well with my own observations ingame. February was the worst month populationwise, but it is picking up again now.

 

Ok 4,284,000 over three months .  Minus 2 million the average fourth quarter income from the two years before AoC's launch (2,146,000 + 1,745,000)/2  http://www.funcom.com/ir_archive/files/Funcom_Q407_report.pdf    AO brings in a over a million a quarter and Funcom launched two games since AoC so they should be generating revenue or why would a business launch them?

2,284,000 / 3 months =  $761,333 / month from AoC

761,333 / $ 15 subscriber (because USD < EURO conversion subscriptions cost more) =  50,755 subscribers

BUT WAIT! http://l3cdn.funcom.com/funcomportal/pdf/investor/2012/funcom-4q11-presentation_final.pdf page 17.

funcom said the cash shop matches revenue from subscribers when projecting TSW. so subscription is only half of AoC income and cash shop is the other half!

50,755 x (1/2) =  25,377 subscribers

There must be some free to play players that use the cah shop, who knows how many it takes to match sub revenue but Funcom claims a 1:1 ratio of cash shop:subscription revenue. Also, remember, Funcom claims revenues to be going down next quarter.

 

 

wth you lnk in a repport from 2007 to prove that AO have 1 mill revenue. Its 2012 and AO have close to 0 revenue.... This is where you proove that you dont care about the argument/discussion anymore. You are pretty much ready to fudge anything to be right. 4.2 mill/3 = 1.4 mill pr month. Each player using 10 USD equals 140 000 players.. 140 000 that would be F2Pers and Preium players.

Funcom gets money from a lot of places and states it in the financials,  AoC isn't 99% of the revenue.  To ignore that fact shows a huge fudge in integrity.  The financial report we are using says 2011 and it is 2012, so 2007 would be 2008 or four years ago a few months before AoC launched and remember preorders don't get charged until release.

So you expect anyone to believe AO survived a horrid launch to stay alive from 2001 to 2008 and earned 1.5 million a quarter on average the morning before AoC released and then 95% of the players left without it being mentioned? Some left but Funcom's new projects bring in more revenue to cover that. AO had an expansion launch at the same time as AoC's expansion so it has subscribers.

Fincancials isn't my thing, who cares but is funny how you think AoC is the only thing Funcom has. 

AoC doesn't have very many Free riders, they can't get any AAs, they can't do more instances, they can't use the expansion and there is nothing to do before the expansion at level 80.  The trial people buy races and classes and then either subscribe or do like most players hit level 40-80 then quit.

140,000 active players would fill 12 servers,  Age of conan only has at most 2 half full servers and the rest are varying degrees of empty.  Also you have to watch out for stuff like this http://forums.ageofconan.com/showthread.php?t=241049 that falsely inflates the revenue.

DaSpeck have you tried age of conan? maybe you should try it out like I did.

  DaSpack

Novice Member

Joined: 11/11/09
Posts: 593

4/15/12 11:40:48 AM#25
Originally posted by tares
Originally posted by DaSpack
Originally posted by tares
Originally posted by DaSpack
Originally posted by Connmacart

 


Oki, fine I'll accept that if you can explain to me where the revenue comes from. NOONE have donated it out of kindness. It comes from players, period.. And btw that matches well with my own observations ingame. February was the worst month populationwise, but it is picking up again now.

 

Ok 4,284,000 over three months .  Minus 2 million the average fourth quarter income from the two years before AoC's launch (2,146,000 + 1,745,000)/2  http://www.funcom.com/ir_archive/files/Funcom_Q407_report.pdf    AO brings in a over a million a quarter and Funcom launched two games since AoC so they should be generating revenue or why would a business launch them?

2,284,000 / 3 months =  $761,333 / month from AoC

761,333 / $ 15 subscriber (because USD < EURO conversion subscriptions cost more) =  50,755 subscribers

BUT WAIT! http://l3cdn.funcom.com/funcomportal/pdf/investor/2012/funcom-4q11-presentation_final.pdf page 17.

funcom said the cash shop matches revenue from subscribers when projecting TSW. so subscription is only half of AoC income and cash shop is the other half!

50,755 x (1/2) =  25,377 subscribers

There must be some free to play players that use the cah shop, who knows how many it takes to match sub revenue but Funcom claims a 1:1 ratio of cash shop:subscription revenue. Also, remember, Funcom claims revenues to be going down next quarter.

 

 

wth you lnk in a repport from 2007 to prove that AO have 1 mill revenue. Its 2012 and AO have close to 0 revenue.... This is where you proove that you dont care about the argument/discussion anymore. You are pretty much ready to fudge anything to be right. 4.2 mill/3 = 1.4 mill pr month. Each player using 10 USD equals 140 000 players.. 140 000 that would be F2Pers and Preium players.

Funcom gets money from a lot of places and states it in the financials,  AoC isn't 99% of the revenue.  To ignore that fact shows a huge fudge in integrity.  The financial report we are using says 2011 and it is 2012, so 2007 would be 2008 or four years ago a few months before AoC launched and remember preorders don't get charged until release.

So you expect anyone to believe AO survived a horrid launch to stay alive from 2001 to 2008 and earned 1.5 million a quarter on average the morning before AoC released and then 95% of the players left without it being mentioned? Some left but Funcom's new projects bring in more revenue to cover that. AO had an expansion launch at the same time as AoC's expansion so it has subscribers.

Fincancials isn't my thing, who cares but is funny how you think AoC is the only thing Funcom has. 

AoC doesn't have very many Free riders, they can't get any AAs, they can't do more instances, they can't use the expansion and there is nothing to do before the expansion at level 80.  The trial people buy races and classes and then either subscribe or do like most players hit level 40-80 then quit.

140,000 active players would fill 12 servers,  Age of conan only has at most 2 half full servers and the rest are varying degrees of empty.  Also you have to watch out for stuff like this http://forums.ageofconan.com/showthread.php?t=241049 that falsely inflates the revenue.

DaSpeck have you tried age of conan? maybe you should try it out like I did.

Not bothered to read this garbage. Read my previous post.

Join us for a weekend in AoC and I'll show you around.

The Ultimate Breakdown

  paul43

Novice Member

Joined: 4/27/11
Posts: 116

4/19/12 5:28:03 AM#26

In my opinion the population is very low right now. I've gone F2P the last weeks, and I've tried to find some T1 raids for one of my blue geared alts. During the last 2 weeks I havent been able to find a raid even if I've been on 1-2 hours solo'ing at various hours (prime time/non prime time). This week I decided to stop playing as I found myself hardly logging on after I gave up finding raids for my alt.

The game is basicly in a bit deadtime now. Normal players haven't had a update since January, and the big boss in the HoC Social dungeon seems to be more or less unkillable. The big guilds doing T4 raids seems to be doing allright I think..

There's two new Solo dungeons coming( or updated versions) and a new group instance. After that there's the big Crafting update, then there's the adventure pack towards the end of the year.

I'll defnetly check out the crafting update and the adventure pack later in the year. But for now. It looks like AOC is going to be pretty dead during the summer.

 

  Connmacart

Novice Member

Joined: 2/24/12
Posts: 693

4/19/12 5:56:53 AM#27
Originally posted by DaSpack
Originally posted by tares
Originally posted by DaSpack
Originally posted by Connmacart

 


Oki, fine I'll accept that if you can explain to me where the revenue comes from. NOONE have donated it out of kindness. It comes from players, period.. And btw that matches well with my own observations ingame. February was the worst month populationwise, but it is picking up again now.

 

Ok 4,284,000 over three months .  Minus 2 million the average fourth quarter income from the two years before AoC's launch (2,146,000 + 1,745,000)/2  http://www.funcom.com/ir_archive/files/Funcom_Q407_report.pdf    AO brings in a over a million a quarter and Funcom launched two games since AoC so they should be generating revenue or why would a business launch them?

2,284,000 / 3 months =  $761,333 / month from AoC

761,333 / $ 15 subscriber (because USD < EURO conversion subscriptions cost more) =  50,755 subscribers

BUT WAIT! http://l3cdn.funcom.com/funcomportal/pdf/investor/2012/funcom-4q11-presentation_final.pdf page 17.

funcom said the cash shop matches revenue from subscribers when projecting TSW. so subscription is only half of AoC income and cash shop is the other half!

50,755 x (1/2) =  25,377 subscribers

There must be some free to play players that use the cah shop, who knows how many it takes to match sub revenue but Funcom claims a 1:1 ratio of cash shop:subscription revenue. Also, remember, Funcom claims revenues to be going down next quarter.

 

 

wth you lnk in a repport from 2007 to prove that AO have 1 mill revenue. Its 2012 and AO have close to 0 revenue.... This is where you proove that you dont care about the argument/discussion anymore. You are pretty much ready to fudge anything to be right. 4.2 mill/3 = 1.4 mill pr month. Each player using 10 USD equals 140 000 players.. 140 000 that would be F2Pers and Preium players.

Shall we start with the actual financial report http://l3cdn.funcom.com/funcomportal/pdf/investor/2012/funcom_4q2011_report.pdf

You know the one with numbers that have a bit more meaning.

Segment 12: Large Scale MMO revenue was 3.900

3.900 is the total for Both AoC and AO. Both are said to be cashflow positive. Nowhere in the report is a statement how much revenue either of them make seperately.

So the 4.284 number people are using is already wrong and you can not prove how much revenue is being made for AoC alone, so how can you ever calculate player population from an unknown number and a guessed number on how much is being spend.

You can't, it's that simple, but please keep spouting your uninformed faulty number all you want. You are more the fool if you do.

  DaSpack

Novice Member

Joined: 11/11/09
Posts: 593

4/22/12 8:58:48 PM#28
Originally posted by Connmacart
Originally posted by DaSpack
Originally posted by tares
Originally posted by DaSpack
Originally posted by Connmacart

 


Oki, fine I'll accept that if you can explain to me where the revenue comes from. NOONE have donated it out of kindness. It comes from players, period.. And btw that matches well with my own observations ingame. February was the worst month populationwise, but it is picking up again now.

 

Ok 4,284,000 over three months .  Minus 2 million the average fourth quarter income from the two years before AoC's launch (2,146,000 + 1,745,000)/2  http://www.funcom.com/ir_archive/files/Funcom_Q407_report.pdf    AO brings in a over a million a quarter and Funcom launched two games since AoC so they should be generating revenue or why would a business launch them?

2,284,000 / 3 months =  $761,333 / month from AoC

761,333 / $ 15 subscriber (because USD < EURO conversion subscriptions cost more) =  50,755 subscribers

BUT WAIT! http://l3cdn.funcom.com/funcomportal/pdf/investor/2012/funcom-4q11-presentation_final.pdf page 17.

funcom said the cash shop matches revenue from subscribers when projecting TSW. so subscription is only half of AoC income and cash shop is the other half!

50,755 x (1/2) =  25,377 subscribers

There must be some free to play players that use the cah shop, who knows how many it takes to match sub revenue but Funcom claims a 1:1 ratio of cash shop:subscription revenue. Also, remember, Funcom claims revenues to be going down next quarter.

 

 

wth you lnk in a repport from 2007 to prove that AO have 1 mill revenue. Its 2012 and AO have close to 0 revenue.... This is where you proove that you dont care about the argument/discussion anymore. You are pretty much ready to fudge anything to be right. 4.2 mill/3 = 1.4 mill pr month. Each player using 10 USD equals 140 000 players.. 140 000 that would be F2Pers and Preium players.

Shall we start with the actual financial report http://l3cdn.funcom.com/funcomportal/pdf/investor/2012/funcom_4q2011_report.pdf

You know the one with numbers that have a bit more meaning.

Segment 12: Large Scale MMO revenue was 3.900

3.900 is the total for Both AoC and AO. Both are said to be cashflow positive. Nowhere in the report is a statement how much revenue either of them make seperately.

So the 4.284 number people are using is already wrong and you can not prove how much revenue is being made for AoC alone, so how can you ever calculate player population from an unknown number and a guessed number on how much is being spend.

You can't, it's that simple, but please keep spouting your uninformed faulty number all you want. You are more the fool if you do.

Look I'm no fanboi or hater(and have certainly not wasted my time reading a full financial report... and why have you btw??). I picked up in a forum that Funcom had 4.3ish Mill USD last quarter in revenue. Combine that with the quite known fact that AoC is the main contributor and next thing you know you have a fair enough estimate for AoC population. If you say the right number is 3.9 Mill USD you still would land on pretty much the same conclusion because AO contribute Jack Shit in revenue. I simply do not understand why you want to make this harder than what it really is.

Try the game and you would get all answers fairly rapid. The game is live and healthy. Some servers more than others.

 

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