Originally posted by gervaise1

 

Difficult to correct all the poor numbers / observations in this thread but I will do a few:

1. 2M boxes sold @ $60 does not equal $120M for EA; last I heard people who make the boxes want paying and people like Amazon who sell the boxes - yep they want paying as well. Funcom reported that for AoC they got c. 20%. Now EA do there own distribution and it will depend on how much they got from retailers + how many Origins sales they had but I was OK with the analysts estimates of $60M for 2M copies sold.

2. 1.7M x 4 months.

-  the 4 months includes the 30 days included - so it would be 3 months.

There is no 4 months.  The 1.7 million is for the end of period report, which was December 31, 2011.  At that point they had not received any suscription money. They also had already sold 300K (roughly) more games, assuming that there wasn't a big rash of players that bought the game and cancelled it within a week.  Maybe it's 6 weeks (Feb 1st), not 100% sure on their responsibilities for the timing of comments.
 
Unfortunately the industry isn't in the habit of reporting the # of subscribers for MMO's, so unless the number is seen as "good news" by EA, it's unlike they will report it again.

Originally posted by bigsmiff

Originally posted by BloodyViking

Well they shut down SWG because it wasnt good enough

Wrong. They shut down SWG because it was a competitor to the new kid in town.

because... it wasn't good enough.  Metacritic average of the game and it's expansions was a 72 (rounded up).  TOR = 85.

Originally posted by grimfall

Originally posted by bigsmiff

Originally posted by BloodyViking

Well they shut down SWG because it wasnt good enough

Wrong. They shut down SWG because it was a competitor to the new kid in town.

because... it wasn't good enough.  Metacritic average of the game and it's expansions was a 72 (rounded up).  TOR = 85.

This is not at its basis about good or bad. It's about making "some" money or "shitloads" of money. SWG might have a worse score than TOR, but that in itself was not what made them flush the toilet. It's all about the money or a lack thereof.

Originally posted by hh33

My numbers are obviously generalized, but my point is still valid either way.

1,700,000 x $15 = $25,500,000 in lost revenue.

Sorry, but EA/Bioware are in panic mode over this project to willingly take a revenue hit like this no matter which way you try to spin it.

F2P by Dec 2012, I have no doubt about it anymore.

They stated more than 1 time:
 "We need 500.000 subcribers to keep the Game alive and healthy"

Now....

Calculate again. And....again perhaps....and you have proof of your fail mate.

Funny how people forget how much staff cost.

yay for doom and gloom...If you like the game play it, if not stfu and go play something else....I think people forget when it comes to games, especially MMOs almost everything is opinion, not fact.  If you don't LIKE something that's an opinion, not a fact.  If you do like something, that's and opinion too.  Only thing with facts about games is if something is broken or soemthing like that.  Whether YOU like it or not is totally irrelevant.  I've played numerous games that "critics" and alot of people hated, but I absolutely loved...Play it, if you like it, play it.  If you don't like it, stfu and go play something you do like.  /rant :)

Well pro or con, you gotta remember they gotta pay Lucas, someone had that at 30%, but i don't know if that is real or just pulled out of no where....Either way it isn't cheap though, I guarantee that.

Originally posted by Ilaya

Originally posted by hh33

My numbers are obviously generalized, but my point is still valid either way.

1,700,000 x $15 = $25,500,000 in lost revenue.

Sorry, but EA/Bioware are in panic mode over this project to willingly take a revenue hit like this no matter which way you try to spin it.

F2P by Dec 2012, I have no doubt about it anymore.

They stated more than 1 time:
 "We need 500.000 subcribers to keep the Game alive and healthy"

Now....

Calculate again. And....again perhaps....and you have proof of your fail mate.

I could have sworn they said 200k subs to keep the game going and healthy, this was a pre-release statement.

Originally posted by Cthulhu23

What in the hell are you talking about?  You have to add that 25,500,000 every single month, btw.  And don't forget to add in the price of box sales for those subs.  

Nice math.  lol.

What are you talking about.  He's referencing the free month.  And what they are giving up by doing it.  So his math is absolutely entirely sound except for the fact I dont believe the game probably has 1.7 million. 

Box subs wouldnt factor into that.  Nor would every single month.  Because he's just talking about the one month. 

Its hilarious when people try to be sarcastic with "nice math. lol " when they're entirely off in left field themselves, not the other way around.

Originally posted by hh33

My numbers are obviously generalized, but my point is still valid either way.

1,700,000 x $15 = $25,500,000 in lost revenue.

Sorry, but EA/Bioware are in panic mode over this project to willingly take a revenue hit like this no matter which way you try to spin it.

F2P by Dec 2012, I have no doubt about it anymore.

What exactly are you trying to say? If I read it one way you seem to be saying 25 mil a month is bad (if so ), if I read it another you're saying they lost 1.7 mil of their customers. Again the same emote seems fitting.

Originally posted by Corehaven

Originally posted by Cthulhu23

What in the hell are you talking about?  You have to add that 25,500,000 every single month, btw.  And don't forget to add in the price of box sales for those subs.  

Nice math.  lol.

 

What are you talking about.  He's referencing the free month.  And what they are giving up by doing it.  So his math is absolutely entirely sound except for the fact I dont believe the game probably has 1.7 million. 

 

Box subs wouldnt factor into that.  Nor would every single month.  Because he's just talking about the one month. 

 

Its hilarious when people try to be sarcastic with "nice math. lol " when they're entirely off in left field themselves, not the other way around.

The op didn't mention the free month at all, how is anyone supposed to know what he's talking about, when he doesn't even mention the most important part of what he's talking about?

Originally posted by davestr1zl

Originally posted by Deewe

Originally posted by RefMinor

Originally posted by BloodyViking

Goebbels would be proud of EA to see so many buying into the 1,7 mill subs nonsense. As others have commented, 100% retention rate isnt exactly likely.

 

Earlier MMO games that have had a bad launch have been able to repair part of the damage and still make some money.

 

SW:TOR however I believe is going to turn into a black hole moneywise for BioWare and EA. They spent at least 200 mill just on the development of the game. And they are nowhere near that amount in sales/subs. Personaly I would not be surprised to see SW:TOR shut down in 1-2 years time. Cant happen? Well they shut down SWG because it wasnt good enough, so as soon as a new SW franchise MMO can be planned this one is going away.

 

All EA have said is that they had 1.7m at 31st dec and the vast majority went past the free month, so all we know is that 1.3 to 1.69m of that original 1.7m subbed from 20th Jan to 20th Feb, that's it, EA have made no other statements on the subject of the numbers. All other indicators show falling subs.

I seriously doubt they have even one million subs by now:

 

 Star Wars: The Old Republic was built to thrive in a WoW world

Quote:

Their goal, for now, is to gain over one million subscribers in the long-term, one they’re apparently well on their way to meeting.

Ahem: aren't you supposed to have 1.7 million subscribers?

The stated goal there is long-term. The 1.7 million subscribers (whether true or not) is in the very short term.

IMHO if you are true that would be even worse meaning they have now over 1 million subs and are hoping keeping only 1 million.

In short they don't have 1 million subs or are in serious trouble.

Originally posted by Ambros123

Originally posted by Ilaya

snip

They stated more than 1 time:
 "We need 500.000 subcribers to keep the Game alive and healthy"

Now....

Calculate again. And....again perhaps....and you have proof of your fail mate.

I could have sworn they said 200k subs to keep the game going and healthy, this was a pre-release statement.

What they said pre-launch, at least as far back as Feb 2011, was that with 500k subs SWTOR would be 'substantially profitable. This was 'tweaked' at the quarterly results to: "at 500k subs SWTOR would break even". (Remember there were articles about cost overruns, delays etc) Questioning indicated that this number refered to SWTOR 'covering its on-going costs' - staff, servers, etc. Some analysts have suggested 350k would be OK - and if they cut-back on staff, content release etc. they probably could. The 500k number is EA's however and it may be so large because of the royalty. BK, CEO of Activision certainly suggested the royalty would be a problem.

What the 500k doesn't cover is recovery of the investment. Box sales only go so far. EA - again in discussion with the analysts - said that they would not have made the investment if they didn't expect 1M subs. Basically take off the 500k for operating costs and anything above that goes to repay development.  

For how long? Estimates suggest 2 years. An extra 500k subs would net $90M - say; 1/3 to LucasArts would leave $60M a year; $120M over 2 years. Add in the $60M profit on 2M box sales and you are in the $200M ball park. Obviously if they get  more than 1M subs payback would be quicker, less subs - slower. Extra box sales etc etc. Articles that suggest 2 years - can't argue with them. The 1M will be a financially driven target that EA set when costing out SWTOR.  

Just to re-iterate the 500k and 1M numbers are what EA gave out. 

Lesson 101 in how to create a long SWToR thread:

Put the number '1.7 million' in the title.

Originally posted by thedarkess

2 000 000 boxes sold (each 60$) = 120 000 000$

1 700 000 subscribers (15$) x 4 months = 102 000 000$

Total= 222 000 000$

 

So how much did it cost to make swtor? Is it 200 000 000$ or 300 000 000$ I don't see much profit yet. Maybe by the end of the year.

It varies depending on analyst. The Times said $200 million, another said $80 million, and another said closer to half a billion.

They don't get 100% of box sales at retail chains, only from origin sales. So say even 30% were from origin and the rest from amazon, gamestop, etc. So say $55 for origin sales, $5 off for cost of running the store. On a $60 box game the publisher usually gets somewhere in the ballpark of $30. Lucas Arts also gets a 35% cut for their licensing, but that is only after development costs are repaid. There is a credit card transaction fee but lets ignore that for now!

600k * $55= 33,000,000

1.4m * $30= 42,000,000

Box sales total= 75,000,000

1.7m subscribers * $15 * 3 months= 76,500,000 (assuming 100% retention rate...not likely)

Combined total 151,500,000

Now remember that costs just shot up due to needing CSR's, GM's, moderators, etc as well as continued development so for a year of operation they are looking at $50 million a year, which is what WoW averaged.

If the costs were $200 million and with continued development they are short $100 million. That means for the remaining 7 months(just gave away 1 month, 3 months paid, and 1st month is free with box) they need to average 952k subs. If the dev costs were less then they are doing alright, if they were more then I don't see the game continuing development for very long.The 30 day giveaway is a gamble. They think that by giving the time to players it will make them want to stay. The problem is that it gives players enough time to get bored of 1.2 and quit. I don't see them giving 30 days away if things were going well, considering that even at 750k subs that's 11.2 million dollars.

Personally, I don't see it happening. I think after this free month another drop off will occur. Especially since Diablo 3 will be coming out and GW2 seems to be progressing towards a launch. Bioware's failure to deal with dying servers isn't helping them either. Expect big layoffs soon if things aren't doing well and some figure head will probably get the boot(doctors are doubtful, but maybe).

Originally posted by Distaste

Originally posted by thedarkess

2 000 000 boxes sold (each 60$) = 120 000 000$

1 700 000 subscribers (15$) x 4 months = 102 000 000$

Total= 222 000 000$ 

So how much did it cost to make swtor? Is it 200 000 000$ or 300 000 000$ I don't see much profit yet. Maybe by the end of the year.

It varies depending on analyst. The Times said $200 million, another said $80 million, and another said closer to half a billion.

They don't get 100% of box sales at retail chains, only from origin sales. So say even 30% were from origin and the rest from amazon, gamestop, etc. So say $55 for origin sales, $5 off for cost of running the store. On a $60 box game the publisher usually gets somewhere in the ballpark of $30. Lucas Arts also gets a 35% cut for their licensing, but that is only after development costs are repaid. There is a credit card transaction fee but lets ignore that for now!

600k * $55= 33,000,000

1.4m * $30= 42,000,000

Box sales total= 75,000,000

1.7m subscribers * $15 * 3 months= 76,500,000 (assuming 100% retention rate...not likely)

Combined total 151,500,000

Now remember that costs just shot up due to needing CSR's, GM's, moderators, etc as well as continued development so for a year of operation they are looking at $50 million a year, which is what WoW averaged. 

If the costs were $200 million and with continued development they are short $100 million. That means for the remaining 7 months(just gave away 1 month, 3 months paid, and 1st month is free with box) they need to average 952k subs. If the dev costs were less then they are doing alright, if they were more then I don't see the game continuing development for very long.The 30 day giveaway is a gamble. They think that by giving the time to players it will make them want to stay. The problem is that it gives players enough time to get bored of 1.2 and quit. I don't see them giving 30 days away if things were going well, considering that even at 750k subs that's 11.2 million dollars. 

Personally, I don't see it happening. I think after this free month another drop off will occur. Especially since Diablo 3 will be coming out and GW2 seems to be progressing towards a launch. Bioware's failure to deal with dying servers isn't helping them either. Expect big layoffs soon if things aren't doing well and some figure head will probably get the boot(doctors are doubtful, but maybe).

    I see one HUGE flaw with this whole model.  You are not including NEW players buying the game.  Plain and simple, new people are buying the game every day.  New players means more money for box / on-line sales.  Even with loosing subs, these new box sale makes up for about two months worth of subs and that is including the free month you get witht he game.

Let's see, this forums is full of armchair developers, armchair CEO's, armchair designers, armchair lawyers, armchair accountants, armchair engineers, armchair journalists, and the worst of all: armchair gamers.

@OP

Your very simple "math" doesn't really have any bearing on how actual accounting and bookkeeping is done. Any idiot with a calculator can multiply 1.7 million by $15. You're not breaking some revolutionary news that noone else could possibly think of here.

What you are leaving out is the rest of the equation. You do not know of the true costs of developing this game. You do not know the actual revenue collected. You do not know the ongoing costs of creating content and maintaining the game. Hell, you don't even really know how many paying subs there are. You don't know how many box sales there were, or how many of those were CE, DD, and SE. You don't know what kind of investment deals EA has made. You don't know the details of the liscensing agreement. You don't know if the game is or will be profitable. You don't know if the game will ever go F2P, let alone when it will. You don't know what effect future and current content patches will have on the financials. 

Lastly, you don't understand how much fun some people have with the game.

Basically, the only thing that I can take from your post and say that you do know for sure is that the subscription costs $15 a month.  That's some pretty good investigative journalism.

    I see one HUGE flaw with this whole model.  You are not including NEW players buying the game.  Plain and simple, new people are buying the game every day.  New players means more money for box / on-line sales.  Even with loosing subs, these new box sale makes up for about two months worth of subs and that is including the free month you get witht he game.

You are right new players are buying the game every day. But far more people are leaving SWTOR on a daily basis then they are gaining. Also the numbers in this thread from almost everyone are estimates and way high. Educated estimates are placing the game at well below 800k current subscribers and dropping every day. There is only 3 worldwide servers left that are hitting Standard population. 30 - 40 are at Light population and all others are below Light status.

Originally posted by NeoZcar2

    I see one HUGE flaw with this whole model.  You are not including NEW players buying the game.  Plain and simple, new people are buying the game every day.  New players means more money for box / on-line sales.  Even with loosing subs, these new box sale makes up for about two months worth of subs and that is including the free month you get witht he game.

You are right new players are buying the game every day. But far more people are leaving SWTOR on a daily basis then they are gaining. Also the numbers in this thread from almost everyone are estimates and way high. Educated estimates are placing the game at well below 800k current subscribers and dropping every day. There is only 3 worldwide servers left that are hitting Standard population. 30 - 40 are at Light population and all others are below Light status.

i don't know how busy the aus and US servers are during their primetime but all 3 asian servers are always at heavy/very heavy traffic during prime time. I'm sure once BW opens up transfers for aus servers those will be heavy-full during their respective primetimes also. The game is far from dead, but they do need to merge US servers and if they could do a cluster server thing for wz that would be a good move also.