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Star Wars: The Old Republic

Star Wars: The Old Republic 

General Discussion  » Seems like the game has peaked on XFire

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1805 posts found
  Monorojo

Novice Member

Joined: 6/19/08
Posts: 422

4/03/12 2:36:26 AM#1461

You guys undertand that you can play less and still have a sub right?

 

I mean everyone I know is waiting for 1.2 to start again. I wonder if Xfire will reflect that fact that fleet numbers will increase greatly once 1.2 comes out?

  Skuz

Novice Member

Joined: 12/25/08
Posts: 1041

"If you can''t laugh at yourself there''s always someone around to show you how it''s done!"

4/03/12 2:43:28 AM#1462
Originally posted by Monorojo

You guys undertand that you can play less and still have a sub right?

 

I mean everyone I know is waiting for 1.2 to start again. I wonder if Xfire will reflect that fact that fleet numbers will increase greatly once 1.2 comes out?

And almost everyone I know that left will not be returning for 1.2, I think that BioWare will definitely get some returning for 1.2 but I also think that they will be bitterly disappointed by how many that turns out to be.

  GMan3

Apprentice Member

Joined: 8/27/10
Posts: 2239

4/03/12 4:19:25 AM#1463
Originally posted by Metentso
Originally posted by GMan3

    Can someone tell me if SWTOR is still the second highest played MMO tracked by XFire?  Last I knew it was second only to WoW and for obvious reasons.

Yes it is, but it's much closer to Aion than to WoW. Wow has 18.000 players, SWTOR 4.000, Aion 2.000, Eve 1000.

In january SWTOR had 12.000, so you can guess where this is going if things don't change. It's losing 2-4% every week.

    So basically what you are saying is that this game is STILL second among MMOs and STILL has about twice the number of players (on XFire) than the MMO in third place.  Not bad for a game that is now going on 4 months old.  Concidering that most MMOs tend to stabilize at around the six month mark, and often grow some after that as content is added and the game smoothes out the wrinkles, I don't see any problem when following your scenario.

"If half of what you tell me is a lie, how can I believe any of it?"

  Bardus

Novice Member

Joined: 2/13/12
Posts: 475

4/03/12 4:36:06 AM#1464
Originally posted by Skuz
Originally posted by Monorojo

You guys undertand that you can play less and still have a sub right?

 

I mean everyone I know is waiting for 1.2 to start again. I wonder if Xfire will reflect that fact that fleet numbers will increase greatly once 1.2 comes out?

And almost everyone I know that left will not be returning for 1.2, I think that BioWare will definitely get some returning for 1.2 but I also think that they will be bitterly disappointed by how many that turns out to be.

Wonder how many will come back for the 'can opener man armor set' or so they can have a force choking, lighting throwing jumping bounty hunter? 

 

1.2 does have some good things although everyone should of been standard at launch. I love seeing 1.2 being hyped when it's all standard features.  What I don't see in 1.2 is addressing the core defect which is social aspects that might actually get everyone to call it a MMO. Whatever 1.2 does bring there is still no long term hook to keep the game from bleeding subs IMO.

  gervaise1

Elite Member

Joined: 1/17/07
Posts: 1474

4/03/12 9:19:41 AM#1465
Originally posted by GMan3
Originally posted by Metentso
Originally posted by GMan3

    Can someone tell me if SWTOR is still the second highest played MMO tracked by XFire?  Last I knew it was second only to WoW and for obvious reasons.

Yes it is, but it's much closer to Aion than to WoW. Wow has 18.000 players, SWTOR 4.000, Aion 2.000, Eve 1000.

In january SWTOR had 12.000, so you can guess where this is going if things don't change. It's losing 2-4% every week.

    So basically what you are saying is that this game is STILL second among MMOs and STILL has about twice the number of players (on XFire) than the MMO in third place.  Not bad for a game that is now going on 4 months old.  Concidering that most MMOs tend to stabilize at around the six month mark, and often grow some after that as content is added and the game smoothes out the wrinkles, I don't see any problem when following your scenario.

Second amongst subscription based games on the XFire chart - so ignoring LoL etc.

Key points: SWTOR was expensive to make and EA have said that they would not have made the investment if they didn't believe they could get/,aintain 1M subs - a number which will include recouping EA's investment. On an on-going basis - if they write off the investment - they can break even / make a profit on 500k (break even point put at c. 350k by some analysts).

One reason the numbers of subs needed is high will be because of the royalty payment to LucasArts - put at 35% by some analysts. So 300k subs in SWTOR would be equal - in profit terms - to 200k in WoW.

The game is some way off 4 months old and at that point people who opted for a 3 month sub will decide whether to renew or not; could be ugly.

Content in SWTOR will only be added slowly - the voice over stuff takes time; quarterly content drops are planned but many seem less than impressed by the new content in 1.2. That is speculation however.

Any evidence that games grow after the 6 month mark? I can think of a lot that don't appear to have done so - we don't get many official figures of course. And at a time of growing F2P, faster consumption of content, the growth of browser games etc. , lots of new games coming out - both mmo and others e.g. Star Wars Kinnect. Tough markey out there.

  Metentso

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 8/14/10
Posts: 1458

4/03/12 10:03:28 AM#1466
Originally posted by GMan3
Originally posted by Metentso
Originally posted by GMan3

    Can someone tell me if SWTOR is still the second highest played MMO tracked by XFire?  Last I knew it was second only to WoW and for obvious reasons.

Yes it is, but it's much closer to Aion than to WoW. Wow has 18.000 players, SWTOR 4.000, Aion 2.000, Eve 1000.

In january SWTOR had 12.000, so you can guess where this is going if things don't change. It's losing 2-4% every week.

    So basically what you are saying is that this game is STILL second among MMOs and STILL has about twice the number of players (on XFire) than the MMO in third place.  Not bad for a game that is now going on 4 months old.  Concidering that most MMOs tend to stabilize at around the six month mark, and often grow some after that as content is added and the game smoothes out the wrinkles, I don't see any problem when following your scenario.

Well in 3 months it has lost 70% of the xFire players, so...

1.2 will probably stop the decline, otherwise it would be fighting with Aion for the 2nd MMO place in may.

About having twice the number of players of Aion, which sounds big, it depends on the magnitude of the numbers. If one game has 1 player, and another game has 2 players, it has twice. In this case it's 2.000 and 4.000.  Actually, 1.879 and 3.587 today, a difference of 1.700 players. SWTOR has lost 8.000 in 3 months and it's losing around 200-300 every week now.

Also consider that SWTOR had the biggest budge in history, and was going to change MMOs forever. If xFire numbers has any relation with total number of subscriptions (i said "if"), it's not looking pretty.

  gervaise1

Elite Member

Joined: 1/17/07
Posts: 1474

4/03/12 10:32:07 AM#1467

Comparing any 'new' game to an 'old' one also ignores the fact that - in most cases - new games lose subs faster than old games. Like used car values; a new car may lose 40 % of its value once it is out of the show room but only another 10% or so in the following year.

  RefMinor

Apprentice Member

Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 3545

Hipster

4/03/12 10:32:32 AM#1468
Originally posted by Rasputin
Originally posted by wowfan1996

OMG, 146 pages of beating a dead horse. Even for nerd forums it's a bit too much.

You may like XFire or hate it but you can't deny that SWTOR peaked *there* in the late December of the last year. It's been three months since then. And about XFire being a reliable source... come on, people, it's is far from the only indicator of SWTOR popularity decline. Just look at torstatus.net. Peace.

I only have 73 pages. I suggest you increase the number of posts per page.

 

I only have 49, page numbers are not a reliable source of a threads popularity.
  superniceguy

Novice Member

Joined: 2/17/07
Posts: 2278

NGE, LOTRO, STO, KOTOR, Lego Star Wars > NGE 2 (SWTOR). SWG>ALL. Above hopefully subject to change.

4/03/12 1:31:47 PM#1469

I can not seem to access the Xfire website atm, been like this for about 24 hours. I can log into my account OK, and see my sig which links to the Xfire website, but can not access the website, including the link in the OP - Just says it is unavailable or does not exist - Weird

They did have a new Beta website, and if you did not like it, could go back to the old one - maybe the old one no longer exists, and they are just using the new site now?

  RefMinor

Apprentice Member

Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 3545

Hipster

4/03/12 2:04:22 PM#1470
Originally posted by superniceguy

I can not seem to access the Xfire website atm, been like this for about 24 hours. I can log into my account OK, and see my sig which links to the Xfire website, but can not access the website, including the link in the OP - Just says it is unavailable or does not exist - Weird

They did have a new Beta website, and if you did not like it, could go back to the old one - maybe the old one no longer exists, and they are just using the new site now?

 

No account but have beta version web page opens ok, 3587 is the figure for April 2nd.
  tixylix

Hard Core Member

Joined: 12/02/11
Posts: 1143

4/03/12 6:47:18 PM#1471

Funny how they haven't announced subscription numbers and all the servers never go past standard or light anymore. I resubbed to see what the three servers were like that I made chars on and during peak time no more than 35 people in the fleet and only 1 person on Tatooine which was funny, especially as that was me.

They need to make it F2P.

  Zorgo

Elite Member

Joined: 12/05/05
Posts: 2265

Who did wrong? The advertiser hired to sell the game or the consumer who put faith in advertising?

4/03/12 7:03:56 PM#1472
Originally posted by Metentso
Originally posted by rguilbert
Originally posted by Fed1

 

I hope all realize that a drop in people playing per day or hours per day has nothing to do with the number of people subscribed. Especially in a story content driven MMO like SWTOR geared towards the more casual.

Example Casual games can have the bulk of players playing 2-3 days a week vs Hardcore where players play 6-7 days a week. So, a casual game with 500k playing a day would 1.5+ million subs. OTHO, A hardcore game with 500k would have 500k subs.

Unfortunately, XFIRE does not provide data on subs or even the relative hardcorness of its users.

 

 

If I remember right, there were 80,000 per day played in December.  Now there are 16-17000.

 

So, based on your theory about casual users:

If Xfire hours played per day  for TOR accurately shows people playing 2-3 hours per week...

Then we should interpret the 120,000 hours played per week as there being 48,000 casual players playing TOR now on Xfire.

We can also interpret the earlier 560,000 hours played per week (during the first month) as there being 224,000 casual players playing TOR per week in December on Xfire.

Seems like 176,000 casual players have quit playing TOR on Xfire.  Any way you slice it...a decline is a decline.

 

The point people are making is the relative decline.  Not how many subscriptions are active.  There is no way to spin this (no matter how much you like the game).

 

Actually it's from 12000 (max in 2th january) to 4000 (now) xFire players, per day. Would be 84000 and 28000 per week.

I'll throw another cog in this wheel.

It took folks many hours to level up. Once max, there isn't enough content to justify the same hours of play (especially as a new mmo without years of added content). Imagine Game A with 100, 000 content and happy players playing 1 hour per day = 100,000 hours. Game B has 25,000 content and happy players, and they are playing 5 hours per day - 250,000 total hours. Which game would be a 'fail'? 

Therefore, in theory, we could have an equal number of players on xfire/swtor playing much fewer hours, as they are maxed.

I don't think of course this is the only answer, but just one of the many variables one has to consider. I do think many people tried SWToR and for a variety of reasons, didn't stick with it. But I also think that those who are sticking with it, are maxed and don't have nearly as much to do in game as they did leveling, thus playing less hours.

 

 

 

  Metentso

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 8/14/10
Posts: 1458

4/04/12 3:35:45 AM#1473
Originally posted by Zorgo
Originally posted by Metentso
Originally posted by rguilbert
Originally posted by Fed1

 

I hope all realize that a drop in people playing per day or hours per day has nothing to do with the number of people subscribed. Especially in a story content driven MMO like SWTOR geared towards the more casual.

Example Casual games can have the bulk of players playing 2-3 days a week vs Hardcore where players play 6-7 days a week. So, a casual game with 500k playing a day would 1.5+ million subs. OTHO, A hardcore game with 500k would have 500k subs.

Unfortunately, XFIRE does not provide data on subs or even the relative hardcorness of its users.

 

 

If I remember right, there were 80,000 per day played in December.  Now there are 16-17000.

 

So, based on your theory about casual users:

If Xfire hours played per day  for TOR accurately shows people playing 2-3 hours per week...

Then we should interpret the 120,000 hours played per week as there being 48,000 casual players playing TOR now on Xfire.

We can also interpret the earlier 560,000 hours played per week (during the first month) as there being 224,000 casual players playing TOR per week in December on Xfire.

Seems like 176,000 casual players have quit playing TOR on Xfire.  Any way you slice it...a decline is a decline.

 

The point people are making is the relative decline.  Not how many subscriptions are active.  There is no way to spin this (no matter how much you like the game).

 

Actually it's from 12000 (max in 2th january) to 4000 (now) xFire players, per day. Would be 84000 and 28000 per week.

I'll throw another cog in this wheel.

It took folks many hours to level up. Once max, there isn't enough content to justify the same hours of play (especially as a new mmo without years of added content). Imagine Game A with 100, 000 content and happy players playing 1 hour per day = 100,000 hours. Game B has 25,000 content and happy players, and they are playing 5 hours per day - 250,000 total hours. Which game would be a 'fail'? 

Therefore, in theory, we could have an equal number of players on xfire/swtor playing much fewer hours, as they are maxed.

I don't think of course this is the only answer, but just one of the many variables one has to consider. I do think many people tried SWToR and for a variety of reasons, didn't stick with it. But I also think that those who are sticking with it, are maxed and don't have nearly as much to do in game as they did leveling, thus playing less hours.

This again...  we are talking players, not hours.

  gervaise1

Elite Member

Joined: 1/17/07
Posts: 1474

4/04/12 7:56:51 AM#1474

Fed1: your point about total hours played not being reliable is valid in and of itself however. Something that was highlighted around the end of December. Hence - as Metentso says - this thread is primarily tracking the total number of players.

Several of the points you raise also touch on the avergae hours played. Just  to reiterate this thread is mainly looking at people playing however average hours were and still are I suspect bei ng tracked as well. And in this respect the data showed: 

- big splurge early on, as EA and you say - check

- then average hours in line with what EA said - check

- and then broadly in line with other mmo games, after all people will broadly have the same amount of hours to play - check. (The number had fallen but is still around 4.)

Not proof that what we are seeing from XFire is a perfect indicator but again supporting that what it is showing is to good to simply dismiss.

 

  superniceguy

Novice Member

Joined: 2/17/07
Posts: 2278

NGE, LOTRO, STO, KOTOR, Lego Star Wars > NGE 2 (SWTOR). SWG>ALL. Above hopefully subject to change.

4/04/12 8:36:12 AM#1475
Originally posted by RefMinor
Originally posted by superniceguy

I can not seem to access the Xfire website atm, been like this for about 24 hours. I can log into my account OK, and see my sig which links to the Xfire website, but can not access the website, including the link in the OP - Just says it is unavailable or does not exist - Weird

They did have a new Beta website, and if you did not like it, could go back to the old one - maybe the old one no longer exists, and they are just using the new site now?

 

No account but have beta version web page opens ok, 3587 is the figure for April 2nd.

It is all OK now. 3389 today for 3rd April! Soon will be below 3000, then 2000, then 1000, then 0!

  RefMinor

Apprentice Member

Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 3545

Hipster

4/04/12 9:35:20 AM#1476
Originally posted by superniceguy
Originally posted by RefMinor
Originally posted by superniceguy

I can not seem to access the Xfire website atm, been like this for about 24 hours. I can log into my account OK, and see my sig which links to the Xfire website, but can not access the website, including the link in the OP - Just says it is unavailable or does not exist - Weird

They did have a new Beta website, and if you did not like it, could go back to the old one - maybe the old one no longer exists, and they are just using the new site now?

 

No account but have beta version web page opens ok, 3587 is the figure for April 2nd.

It is all OK now. 3389 today for 3rd April! Soon will be below 3000, then 2000, then 1000, then 0!

 

It will be interesting to match up what we are seeing here when EA publish their financials, amazing to believe some people think they have 1.7m subscribed players. Massively now report the amount of people you can invite to he friends trial is up to 25 from 3, soon they will have a permanent free trial I guess.
  Zorgo

Elite Member

Joined: 12/05/05
Posts: 2265

Who did wrong? The advertiser hired to sell the game or the consumer who put faith in advertising?

4/04/12 3:20:37 PM#1477
Originally posted by Metentso
Originally posted by Zorgo
Originally posted by Metentso
Originally posted by rguilbert
Originally posted by Fed1

 

I hope all realize that a drop in people playing per day or hours per day has nothing to do with the number of people subscribed. Especially in a story content driven MMO like SWTOR geared towards the more casual.

Example Casual games can have the bulk of players playing 2-3 days a week vs Hardcore where players play 6-7 days a week. So, a casual game with 500k playing a day would 1.5+ million subs. OTHO, A hardcore game with 500k would have 500k subs.

Unfortunately, XFIRE does not provide data on subs or even the relative hardcorness of its users.

 

 

If I remember right, there were 80,000 per day played in December.  Now there are 16-17000.

 

So, based on your theory about casual users:

If Xfire hours played per day  for TOR accurately shows people playing 2-3 hours per week...

Then we should interpret the 120,000 hours played per week as there being 48,000 casual players playing TOR now on Xfire.

We can also interpret the earlier 560,000 hours played per week (during the first month) as there being 224,000 casual players playing TOR per week in December on Xfire.

Seems like 176,000 casual players have quit playing TOR on Xfire.  Any way you slice it...a decline is a decline.

 

The point people are making is the relative decline.  Not how many subscriptions are active.  There is no way to spin this (no matter how much you like the game).

 

Actually it's from 12000 (max in 2th january) to 4000 (now) xFire players, per day. Would be 84000 and 28000 per week.

I'll throw another cog in this wheel.

It took folks many hours to level up. Once max, there isn't enough content to justify the same hours of play (especially as a new mmo without years of added content). Imagine Game A with 100, 000 content and happy players playing 1 hour per day = 100,000 hours. Game B has 25,000 content and happy players, and they are playing 5 hours per day - 250,000 total hours. Which game would be a 'fail'? 

Therefore, in theory, we could have an equal number of players on xfire/swtor playing much fewer hours, as they are maxed.

I don't think of course this is the only answer, but just one of the many variables one has to consider. I do think many people tried SWToR and for a variety of reasons, didn't stick with it. But I also think that those who are sticking with it, are maxed and don't have nearly as much to do in game as they did leveling, thus playing less hours.

This again...  we are talking players, not hours.

Point taken...but as food for thought, if players are maxed and there isn't enough content to warrant playing every day, wouldn't the player numbers drop too?

I started playing every day on release. Now I log in 2 or 3 times a week because I have a max lvl toon. I'm still subscribing, I still think it is a good game, but it is new and doesn't have years of added content, I'm not mad, just ahead of the development curve.

The above scenario is common, and you know it's true if you think about it. This too, would account for fewer people per day.

But I know it must be frustrating when you want to ignore pertinent variables and people keep bringing them up over and over.

 

  RefMinor

Apprentice Member

Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 3545

Hipster

4/04/12 3:22:50 PM#1478
Originally posted by Zorgo
Originally posted by Metentso
Originally posted by Zorgo
Originally posted by Metentso
Originally posted by rguilbert
Originally posted by Fed1

 

I hope all realize that a drop in people playing per day or hours per day has nothing to do with the number of people subscribed. Especially in a story content driven MMO like SWTOR geared towards the more casual.

Example Casual games can have the bulk of players playing 2-3 days a week vs Hardcore where players play 6-7 days a week. So, a casual game with 500k playing a day would 1.5+ million subs. OTHO, A hardcore game with 500k would have 500k subs.

Unfortunately, XFIRE does not provide data on subs or even the relative hardcorness of its users.

 

 

If I remember right, there were 80,000 per day played in December.  Now there are 16-17000.

 

So, based on your theory about casual users:

If Xfire hours played per day  for TOR accurately shows people playing 2-3 hours per week...

Then we should interpret the 120,000 hours played per week as there being 48,000 casual players playing TOR now on Xfire.

We can also interpret the earlier 560,000 hours played per week (during the first month) as there being 224,000 casual players playing TOR per week in December on Xfire.

Seems like 176,000 casual players have quit playing TOR on Xfire.  Any way you slice it...a decline is a decline.

 

The point people are making is the relative decline.  Not how many subscriptions are active.  There is no way to spin this (no matter how much you like the game).

 

Actually it's from 12000 (max in 2th january) to 4000 (now) xFire players, per day. Would be 84000 and 28000 per week.

I'll throw another cog in this wheel.

It took folks many hours to level up. Once max, there isn't enough content to justify the same hours of play (especially as a new mmo without years of added content). Imagine Game A with 100, 000 content and happy players playing 1 hour per day = 100,000 hours. Game B has 25,000 content and happy players, and they are playing 5 hours per day - 250,000 total hours. Which game would be a 'fail'? 

Therefore, in theory, we could have an equal number of players on xfire/swtor playing much fewer hours, as they are maxed.

I don't think of course this is the only answer, but just one of the many variables one has to consider. I do think many people tried SWToR and for a variety of reasons, didn't stick with it. But I also think that those who are sticking with it, are maxed and don't have nearly as much to do in game as they did leveling, thus playing less hours.

This again...  we are talking players, not hours.

Point taken...but as food for thought, if players are maxed and there isn't enough content to warrant playing every day, wouldn't the player numbers drop too?

I started playing every day on release. Now I log in 2 or 3 times a week because I have a max lvl toon. I'm still subscribing, I still think it is a good game, but it is new and doesn't have years of added content, I'm not mad, just ahead of the development curve.

The above scenario is common, and you know it's true if you think about it. This too, would account for fewer people per day.

But I know it must be frustrating when you want to not have to think about pertinent variables and people keep bringing them up over and over.

 

 

Some of the drop will be people like that, but the less people play the more likely they are to stop completely and unsub.
  Twisted77

Novice Member

Joined: 8/30/10
Posts: 77

4/04/12 3:36:12 PM#1479
No need for xfire stats- just login and play. ghost towns. Some servers have increased due to players re-rolling on populated servers ... instead of waiting for merges.

  gervaise1

Elite Member

Joined: 1/17/07
Posts: 1474

4/04/12 4:07:46 PM#1480

sn ip

This again...  we are talking players, not hours.

Point taken...but as food for thought, if players are maxed and there isn't enough content to warrant playing every day, wouldn't the player numbers drop too?

I started playing every day on release. Now I log in 2 or 3 times a week because I have a max lvl toon. I'm still subscribing, I still think it is a good game, but it is new and doesn't have years of added content, I'm not mad, just ahead of the development curve.

The above scenario is common, and you know it's true if you think about it. This too, would account for fewer people per day.

But I know it must be frustrating when you want to ignore pertinent variables and people keep bringing them up over and over. 

What is really frustrating is trying to treat someone with respect and they continue to attack people; be civil rather then throwing in the snide "I know it must be frustrating drivel".

What you have actually stated is that you are a pretty average user. Why?

In the beginning the average hours played was very high, typically close to 9 hours, it even peaked higher. This was people like you logging in everyday because SWTOR was new and shiny and then there was the holiday season.

Now the average hours played is 4. Less than half - so this represents people logging in about 3 times a week, Hence you are pretty average and confirm the data.

For your scenario to be true:

option 1: the number of people playing would have to remain very high - it peaked at just below 12,000 - and these 12k would have to log in less than 1 day a week.   Not what you are doing and not what the data suggets.

option 2: there are the 3-4k players logging in and 8k or so players who are playing an average of 0 days a week just waiting for the next patch. Hmmm, this is a 3 month old game. If they are not logging then I would suggest that most of them have a) left b) will leave when their 3 month sub runs out.

Both of these scenarios are, I think you will agree, pretty bleak.

We are not, however, trying to be this exact however. We know that there will be a margin of error etc. Things could be better ... or worse!

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