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The Pub at MMORPG.COM  » WoW vs. SWTOR viability - the key stat is new players

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112 posts found
  Axehilt

Novice Member

Joined: 5/09/09
Posts: 7213

3/25/12 2:08:04 PM#21
Originally posted by blackweb

You are letting your personal bias interfere with your objectivity.   Objectively, which is a better recruiting pool for guild leaders, 28 characters scattered across 15 zones or 88 characters in 3 zones?

I recruited 20 new players in one 10-16 zone, Courscant yesterday.   Only about 1/4 of them were alts.   Today in Westfall there were only 3 characters from 10-15.  Yesterday on Courscant there were 20-35 all day.

1. MMORPGs don't make money based on guild leaders' ability to recruit.

2. Overall population is way more important than lowbie zone population.

3. Installs (new players) are important for any game of course, but to call it "the key stat" is to undervalue the importance of retaining existing players.  There's a reason that the lion's share of WOW's live development work has gone into the part of the game with the most players (max level content.)  The only criticism that makes a little sense is that Cataclysm's revamp to newbie content was a long time coming and probably should've been done much earlier (letting leveling content become that outdated almost certainly reduced how many players stuck through until endgame.)

4. Also it's ridiculous to compare the install rates of two games of vastly different ages.  Obviously a newer AAA MMORPG is going to win.

I have nothing against ToR (I rather enjoyed it,) but the way you're presenting this thread makes no damn sense and is completely irrelevant to most players.

  Bunks

Novice Member

Joined: 1/08/12
Posts: 987

3/25/12 2:10:23 PM#22

http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=340773 Server Merges
 http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=350700&page=71 Server  population is dropping...
 http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=375176 Is this game dying already or is it just slowing down?
http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=340708 When will there be a "SERVER MERGE?"
 http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=374849 Give us 1.2 as it is FAST !!! Too many players leaving the game !!!

and of course who can forget the "active" players polled http://i.imgur.com/DMObE.png

 

Yeah, sure this game is surging! LOL

 

and listen to the radio podcast from teh guild leader sumit. All but two guilds were crying about a severe drop in members and no new players joning, well except rerolling alts.

  sicness277

Advanced Member

Joined: 2/01/11
Posts: 39

3/25/12 2:23:35 PM#23
Originally posted by blackweb
Originally posted by echose7en
Originally posted by blackweb
 

You are comparing a game that was just released to a game that has been out for 7 odd years, mmos after so long tend to be top heavy level wise.

Just becasue thats what you encounted on that server with your guild does not making it fact across the board, one of the biggest thread on SWTOR is one complaining about their servers being dead and that is a new game thats not been released long, not a good sign.

 

Again, just because facts disagree with your closely held beliefs does not make them wrong.  Go take a look on your server(s), prove me wrong if you can.   I think you will find a pattern across almost all WoW and SWTOR servers, SWTOR is growing, WoW is in maintenance mode at  best.

These so called 'facts' are hardly definitive though. Just because you came to a conclusion from your personal experience doesn't mean in any way that's the actual situation of these games. Your point of view is considerably more biased than anyone countering you because you're basing your 'conclusion' off extremely minimal research.

Stop trying to write people's opinions off just because they disagree with your obviously flawed research that you claim is conclusive when it's anything but. I could just as easily make the same claims that you did in favor of WoW, but without any any logical research done it's not as definitive as you'd like it to be.

  gu357u53r

Apprentice Member

Joined: 3/09/12
Posts: 117

3/25/12 2:27:06 PM#24
Originally posted by blackweb

The key to MMORPG viability is "how many new players are coming to the game?" or "how many players are leveling new characters?" when the starting zones are empty, its over for an MMORPG. Why are starting zone numbers so important to MMORPG viability?  Because without new players it is very difficult for guilds to recruit and form new guilds or replace losses due to attrition in existing guilds.   New blood is the key to guild and MMORPG viability.

Lets compare The number of players in WoW's Alliance starting zones on the Maelstrom RP-PvP server to the number of players in the Republic starting zones on the Ven Zallow RP-PvP server from levels 1-20 today, Sunday March 3/25/2012 at 11:00 AM CST. Both servers are medium population. Here are the numbers;

  • Maelstrom Alliance: 1-20 - 28 characters
  • Ven Zallow Repuplic: 1-20 - 88 characters.

The numbers speak for themselves. SWTOR is clearly growing twice as fast as wow by sufficient numbers more than replace any losses due to attrition while WoW is in maintenance mode at best or is slowly losing players.  Neither game is dying but SWTOR is clearly more healthy than WoW.  You will likely find similar results on most servers in WoW and SWTOR.

Edit:

Objectively, which is a better recruiting pool for guild leaders, 28 characters scattered across 15 zones or 88 characters in 3 zones?

I recruited 20 new players in one 10-16 zone, Courscant yesterday. Only about 1/4 of them were alts. Today in Westfall there were only 3 characters from 10-15. Yesterday on Courscant there were 20-35 all day.

 

Feel free to post your results from your server(s).  

Keep trying to open the eyes of gamers.  Don't let the ones who disagree with you try to manipulate your thinking.  Never give up!  It is us the gamers who drive online multiplayer games.  Without players, where is the game?

  mgilbrtsn

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 2/14/09
Posts: 1310

He who fights and runs away... misses out on the loot

3/25/12 2:29:52 PM#25

There is a kind of error in the logic that both can't be viable.  You will see both games for a long time to come.  Whether you like, one, the other, or neither.  Might as well live with it with good grace.

 

They are coming for you!

  blackweb

Novice Member

Joined: 11/18/11
Posts: 15

 
OP  3/25/12 2:31:33 PM#26
Originally posted by Bunks

http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=340773 Server Merges
 http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=350700&page=71 Server  population is dropping...
 http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=375176 Is this game dying already or is it just slowing down?
http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=340708 When will there be a "SERVER MERGE?"
 http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=374849 Give us 1.2 as it is FAST !!! Too many players leaving the game !!!

and of course who can forget the "active" players polled http://i.imgur.com/DMObE.png

 

Yeah, sure this game is surging! LOL

 

and listen to the radio podcast from teh guild leader sumit. All but two guilds were crying about a severe drop in members and no new players joning, well except rerolling alts.

QQ threads are not facts.

  RefMinor

Novice Member

Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 3545

Hipster

3/25/12 2:35:28 PM#27
Originally posted by blackweb
Originally posted by Bunks

http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=340773 Server Merges
 http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=350700&page=71 Server  population is dropping...
 http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=375176 Is this game dying already or is it just slowing down?
http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=340708 When will there be a "SERVER MERGE?"
 http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=374849 Give us 1.2 as it is FAST !!! Too many players leaving the game !!!

and of course who can forget the "active" players polled http://i.imgur.com/DMObE.png

 

Yeah, sure this game is surging! LOL

 

and listen to the radio podcast from teh guild leader sumit. All but two guilds were crying about a severe drop in members and no new players joning, well except rerolling alts.

QQ threads are not facts.

 

On January  8th, with sales at 1.88 miillion,  one week after the new year, servers were (by hours/status) approximately 30% heavy, 45% standard, 25% light and wait times were still possilble on the heaviest servers.     This weekend's peak, including TRIAL USERS was 4% heavy 44% standard and 52% light on 2.22 million units sold.     Further, over 80% of all servers now run at 50% or less time at standard.   Some servers have not gotten out of light for weeks.

 

Thanks to MosesZD for the info.
  blackweb

Novice Member

Joined: 11/18/11
Posts: 15

 
OP  3/25/12 2:36:05 PM#28
Originally posted by sicness277
Originally posted by blackweb
 

These so called 'facts' are hardly definitive though. Just because you came to a conclusion from your personal experience doesn't mean in any way that's the actual situation of these games. Your point of view is considerably more biased than anyone countering you because you're basing your 'conclusion' off extremely minimal research.

Stop trying to write people's opinions off just because they disagree with your obviously flawed research that you claim is conclusive when it's anything but. I could just as easily make the same claims that you did in favor of WoW, but without any any logical research done it's not as definitive as you'd like it to be.

 It is a fact that there were 20-35 characters leveling on Courscant yesterday.   It is a fact that in SWTOR yesterday on Courscant, I recruited 20 new characters, about 1/4 of whom were alts in a few hours.  While these facts may disagree with the myths and outright falsehoods spewed in this an other forums about SWTOR, they are nonetheless facts.

  waynejr2

Elite Member

Joined: 4/12/11
Posts: 3881

RIP City of Heroes!

3/25/12 2:38:14 PM#29
Originally posted by tixylix
Originally posted by Damon

I think there is a design flaw in SW:TOR.  The zones are planets.  On top of this, the fleet is the hub of social interaction.  So, most players do not intereact with new players and the starting areas are empty.  In contrast, WoW has starting areas just outside the major cities.  I think it is important to have starting areas around major hubs, then have the content designed to be progressively difficult the further you venture away from the hub.

Yeh and in beta it was like that with the Capitals being used until they added fleets in which ruined the game.

I agree, adding the fleets hurt imo.  They should have keep people on the planets.

  sicness277

Advanced Member

Joined: 2/01/11
Posts: 39

3/25/12 2:38:40 PM#30
Originally posted by blackweb
Originally posted by sicness277
Originally posted by blackweb
 

These so called 'facts' are hardly definitive though. Just because you came to a conclusion from your personal experience doesn't mean in any way that's the actual situation of these games. Your point of view is considerably more biased than anyone countering you because you're basing your 'conclusion' off extremely minimal research.

Stop trying to write people's opinions off just because they disagree with your obviously flawed research that you claim is conclusive when it's anything but. I could just as easily make the same claims that you did in favor of WoW, but without any any logical research done it's not as definitive as you'd like it to be.

 It is a fact that there were 20-35 characters leveling on Courscant yesterday.   It is a fact that in SWTOR yesterday on Courscant, I recruited 20 new characters, about 1/4 of whom were alts in a few hours.  While these facts may not disagree with the myths and outright falsehoods spewed in this an other forums about SWTOR, they are nonetheless facts.

Again though, while they are facts they're hardly conclusive enough to make the claims that you're making. If you want to actually have a more definitive result then you must do much more research than random recruiting information from 2 servers.

Your entire 'research' is the problem here. You think it's enough to make a valid conclusion that SWTOR is doing better than WoW when it's not even remotely close. You would need to do much more, unbiased, research.

The facts may support your point of view, but they hardly define it in the way you're trying to claim.

  MosesZD

Novice Member

Joined: 2/10/12
Posts: 1407

3/25/12 2:38:48 PM#31
Originally posted by blackweb
Originally posted by Damon

I think there is a design flaw in SW:TOR.  The zones are planets.  On top of this, the fleet is the hub of social interaction.  So, most players do not intereact with new players and the starting areas are empty.  In contrast, WoW has starting areas just outside the major cities.  I think it is important to have starting areas around major hubs, then have the content designed to be progressively difficult the further you venture away from the hub.

If new characters is the measure of good design, SWTOR is clearly winning.

 

Besides ineptly interpreted comments by incomptent game "journalists" (and I wince everytime I connect those terms) where is the evidence?    Or, in short, why are the trends so bad for SWTOR?   http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/trends

 

Do your trends.  Know they haven't added servers, besides the 3 Oceanic servers, since the 20th of December.  

 

And now...   More than 80% of them spend at least 50% of their time in 'light' status, which is around 450 or fewer players.  (I know with 477 you'll get a "standard" population.)   The threads for server mergers are constantly spawning and constantly being shut down.   The 'official' server merger thread has gone over 1,000s of posts repeatedly...

 

And now we have the desperation huge marketing campaign that didn't work (sales keep dropping, game was at 58 last week, down from 53 the week before...   The free trials haven't helped.    It's a laugher.

 

And yet you're telling us SWTOR is kicking butt and taking names?    With Tera, GW2 and TSW coming out...  

 

SWTOR = Warhammer by summer's end...

 

 

  Bunks

Novice Member

Joined: 1/08/12
Posts: 987

3/25/12 2:39:07 PM#32
Originally posted by blackweb
Originally posted by Bunks

http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=340773 Server Merges
 http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=350700&page=71 Server  population is dropping...
 http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=375176 Is this game dying already or is it just slowing down?
http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=340708 When will there be a "SERVER MERGE?"
 http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=374849 Give us 1.2 as it is FAST !!! Too many players leaving the game !!!

and of course who can forget the "active" players polled http://i.imgur.com/DMObE.png

 

Yeah, sure this game is surging! LOL

 

and listen to the radio podcast from teh guild leader sumit. All but two guilds were crying about a severe drop in members and no new players joning, well except rerolling alts.

QQ threads are not facts.

Nor is your anecdotal evidence, since there is 100 times more anecdotal evidence to the contrary.

Server status, player polling, EA using nebulous statements that can be truth from one extreme to the other, Xfire trends, falling new game sales,and even forum QQing, all add up to the game headed in one direction. The only question now is, how much.

  User Deleted
3/25/12 2:40:00 PM#33

Ahh, but the key to attacting new players is your veterans or long term players. The number of new players is connected with the number of old players. The fewer you have of one, the fewer you'll have of the other.

 

  blackweb

Novice Member

Joined: 11/18/11
Posts: 15

 
OP  3/25/12 2:40:51 PM#34
Originally posted by RefMinor

 

On January  8th, with sales at 1.88 miillion,  one week after the new year, servers were (by hours/status) approximately 30% heavy, 45% standard, 25% light and wait times were still possilble on the heaviest servers.     This weekend's peak, including TRIAL USERS was 4% heavy 44% standard and 52% light on 2.22 million units sold.     Further, over 80% of all servers now run at 50% or less time at standard.   Some servers have not gotten out of light for weeks.

 

Thanks to MosesZD for the info.

As a guild leader, all that matters is actual characters logged in and playing the game.  When statistics disagree with what I actually see in game, I will go with what I see in game.

There really is only one way to verify what I am saying.  Log into both games at about the same time and go to the zone in question and do a /who 1-20 or whatever you are looking for.   Those are the only statisitcs that matter to the viablity of an MMORPG.

  gu357u53r

Apprentice Member

Joined: 3/09/12
Posts: 117

3/25/12 2:43:16 PM#35
Originally posted by sicness277

Again though, while they are facts they're hardly conclusive enough to make the claims that you're making. If you want to actually have a more definitive result then you must do much more research than random recruiting information from 2 servers.

Your entire 'research' is the problem here. You think it's enough to make a valid conclusion that SWTOR is doing better than WoW when it's not even remotely close. You would need to do much more, unbiased, research.

The facts may support your point of view, but they hardly define it in the way you're trying to claim.

You failed to read his original post it is easy to come to the conclusion that his information has a valid claim, and proves his point. Without players, where is the game?

Originally posted by blackweb

Why are starting zone numbers so important to MMORPG viability?  Because without new players it is very difficult for guilds to recruit and form new guilds or replace losses due to attrition in existing guilds.   New blood is the key to guild and MMORPG viability.

  RefMinor

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Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 3545

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3/25/12 2:43:34 PM#36
Originally posted by blackweb
Originally posted by RefMinor

 

On January  8th, with sales at 1.88 miillion,  one week after the new year, servers were (by hours/status) approximately 30% heavy, 45% standard, 25% light and wait times were still possilble on the heaviest servers.     This weekend's peak, including TRIAL USERS was 4% heavy 44% standard and 52% light on 2.22 million units sold.     Further, over 80% of all servers now run at 50% or less time at standard.   Some servers have not gotten out of light for weeks.

 

Thanks to MosesZD for the info.

As a guild leader, all that matters is actual characters logged in and playing the game.  When statistics disagree with what I actually see in game, I will go with what I see in game.

 

But what about the facts, you said you wanted facts, there they are, and they show problem for SWTOR.
  musicmann

Advanced Member

Joined: 12/25/05
Posts: 1123

3/25/12 2:44:48 PM#37
Originally posted by Zorgo

I believe the industry is ripe for an innovation to keep the starter zones occupied so that entering players are not in a waste land.

I have seen games 'attempt' various things to combat this, however they  seem to have either fallen short or created a domino effect of unintended consequences.

For examples:

Soloability - I believe the reason people screamed for it and the reason it was implemented in many games, including but not limited to, EQ2, WoW, Rift, WAR, etc. At last, it is possible to level an alt or enter a game after the initial crowd levels.

Unintened consequences

- the initial 'crowd' upon release stopped grouping to reach max level. It may have provided those trickling in with the ability to level up and join the fun at end game, but it killed a major social element for everyone.

- leveling ceases to be the game, it becomes a process to reach the game; although soloability isn't solely responsible for end game focus, it drew a solid line between what had been a fuzzy transition before between leveling and end game.

- the game by design, is 'lonely'. Related to the first consequence, the entire atmosphere of an mmo is forever altered by soloability.

Mentoring:

Now your high level friends can come help you in newbie zones and have some benefit for themselves.

Unintended consequence:

It formalizes 'power leveling'. Where before this was a player-driven use of skills, and totally altruistic, it became a game mechanic. All of the fun of levelling is sapped right out as it becomes a zerg fest to by-pass the game for the end game. Perhaps not so much a terrible mechanic, but definately terribly implemented.

Fast leveling:

It will take me as long to reach max level as it did the initial crowd, no matter how many expansions.

Whatever time it took you to reach 60 in vanilla WoW, is very likely to be about the same amount of time it would take to max to 85 (or 90 soon) starting a new toon today. **RULE OF THUMB ; illustration of fast leveling theory/philosophy only**

Unintended consequences:

Too many to name but to highight:

- Newbs at end game: people reach 85 without mastering initial content

- Obsolete gear and questlines. Rememer that cool quest in the level 30 zone that got you that cool epic item? Yeah don't bother, a green drop from the lvl 30 zone in the new expansion will be twice as good.

- Starter zones needing to be completely re-worked to make since with a game with twice the levels as release.

Cross-server dungeon finders:

At last a group for the level 12 dungeon.

Go to any forum about mmo's and get your popcorn for the unintended consequences.

 

-So what is next? Those either don't work, change what an 'mmo' is, or are very poorly implemented. But hey, at least they're trying.


I believe the industry is ripe for a AAA gaming company to step out from behind the so called norm mode of building mmo's and bring back true virtual world mmorpgs once again. It's time to leave the raiding and pvp gear merry go grind with WOW and bring back indepth resource crafting and a real players economy. I can't believe people think that planets are dead in TOR because the social hub is the fleet. The game feels dead because there's no real player interdependency tools that creates a strong community. For some reason, developers have brainwashed mmo gamers into believing that the game doesn't start until max level. Everything in between is just to get to that magical number and then the fun starts, and TOR is no different. The only thing they did is diguised the path with story, but once there, it is the same old merry go gear grind through raiding and pvp.

MMORPG's are supposed to take you to this virtual world that from the 1st sec on login, you are trying to figure out your place in it. It's about being social and coming together as a community in ways other than combat. It should give you fun right from the start and not be so easy to be able to figure it all out within a week, but not be so hard that you are still lost after a month. Developers are really in my opinion, trying to turn the genre into nothing more than a glorified console sub genre.

It's very easy to see that almost every AAA mmo that has come after WOW has been dumbed down and made less open and virtual. If you sit and compare WOW's game world to TOR's, it doesn't take much to see how closed off and dead TOR feels compared. Name a mmo and compare, facts are facts. MMORPG's should not be about  the 1, 2 , 3 direct path approach, that is how console games are made. MMO's, should never run on a straight line and should always strive to be off beat as possble. When a developer can put all that together, in my opinion, then and only then, will have a product that is worthy of the mmorpg title.

  RefMinor

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Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 3545

Hipster

3/25/12 2:46:54 PM#38
Originally posted by gu357u53r
Originally posted by sicness277

Again though, while they are facts they're hardly conclusive enough to make the claims that you're making. If you want to actually have a more definitive result then you must do much more research than random recruiting information from 2 servers.

Your entire 'research' is the problem here. You think it's enough to make a valid conclusion that SWTOR is doing better than WoW when it's not even remotely close. You would need to do much more, unbiased, research.

The facts may support your point of view, but they hardly define it in the way you're trying to claim.

You failed to read his original post it is easy to come to the conclusion that his information has a valid claim, and proves his point. Without players, where is the game?

Originally posted by blackweb

Why are starting zone numbers so important to MMORPG viability?  Because without new players it is very difficult for guilds to recruit and form new guilds or replace losses due to attrition in existing guilds.   New blood is the key to guild and MMORPG viability.

 

However, I would rather have a glass that leaked 10ml a minute that was filled by 9ml a minute (WoW) than one that leaked 50ml a minute but was filled with 20ml a minute (SWTOR)
  MosesZD

Novice Member

Joined: 2/10/12
Posts: 1407

3/25/12 2:47:20 PM#39
Originally posted by blackweb
Originally posted by echose7en
Originally posted by blackweb
 

You are comparing a game that was just released to a game that has been out for 7 odd years, mmos after so long tend to be top heavy level wise.

Just becasue thats what you encounted on that server with your guild does not making it fact across the board, one of the biggest thread on SWTOR is one complaining about their servers being dead and that is a new game thats not been released long, not a good sign.

 

Again, just because facts disagree with your closely held beliefs does not make them wrong.  Go take a look on your server(s), prove me wrong if you can.   I think you will find a pattern across almost all WoW and SWTOR servers, SWTOR is growing, WoW is in maintenance mode at  best.

 

Ah, ha ha hah ahaaa.....    That's rich.   The answer is NO.    

 

http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/trends

 

No servers have been added, save three Oceania servers, since 12/20/2011.   Server-hours are now over 50% LIGHT during weekend play.  That's peak play and a doubling of this negative measurement (25% to 50%).     Server hours are now just 3% heavy on weekends (during peak playtime), down from 30% heavy on January 8th.   That's 1/10th the 'heavy status' hours of January 8th.

 

So a doubling of time spent in light (under 450 players) and one-tenth the time spent in heavy...   And you're saying SWTOR growing?   Face the facts.   Just face 'em.   Make your peace with the upcoming server mergers and stop pretending this game is an unqualified success.   It's not.

 

The only thing SWTOR is better at is contracting.    It's crashing and burning at a  much faster rate than WoW...

 

  blackweb

Novice Member

Joined: 11/18/11
Posts: 15

 
OP  3/25/12 2:47:24 PM#40
Originally posted by Bunks

Server status, player polling, EA using nebulous statements that can be truth from one extreme to the other, Xfire trends, falling new game sales,and even forum QQing, all add up to the game headed in one direction. The only question now is, how much.

I left wow because I could no longer maintain a viable guild there due to decreasing numbers of new players coming to the game.  I concluded that wow is in fact a dying game.   In SWTOR I have found the opposite.   My guild has continued to grow and gain new members.  What is more, the quality of the new members is much higher.   In SWTOR, about half of new members stay and become active, contributing guild members.   In WoW, I found that only about 1 in 20 recruits become active, contributing guild members.  Yes, wow is moving in one direction, down and MoP will not save it.   For us on our SWTOR server, the game is moving in one direction, up.

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