Trending Games | Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn | Guild Wars 2 | Rift | World of Warcraft
Network: Gamertube FPSguru RTSguru
| 83 posts found | |
|---|---|
|
3/18/12 3:46:23 PM#41
Originally posted by Kakkzooka As I said, I dont play SWTOR, I just hate bad statistics and all these dumb Xfire trend threads in general. Except this one, which mocks them. |
|
|
3/18/12 3:48:24 PM#42
Originally posted by evilastroOriginally posted by Kakkzooka I think it mocks the deniers! But to each their own "i don't waste my time building relationship in games" - nariusseldon |
|
|
Deathofsage
Apprentice Member
Joined: 2/11/11
Honestly: |
3/18/12 3:51:19 PM#43
There certainly are companies in better positions to provide an XFire like service that would be more widely used. I'd say the chief reason that those companies don't is because it's hard to pay lipservice to a product when your own software shows how the game is really performing. Like many people say in every XFire thread since the beginning of the Internet, "I don't know anyone who uses it, and never have.". Spec'ing properly is a gateway drug. |
Originally posted by RefMinor You are correct. My intent was, secondarily, to playfully mock the deniers and, firstly, to praise Guild Wars 2. And thirdly, to covet ArenaNet's as-of-yet-unpurchased, massive flotilla of modestly expensive yachts. Re: SWTOR "Remember, remember - Kakk says 'December.'" |
|
|
3/18/12 3:55:39 PM#45
Originally posted by KakkzookaOriginally posted by RefMinor Also you will have the pride of starting a massive GW2 XFire thread debate by getting in so early, I might do one for ArcheAge :-) "i don't waste my time building relationship in games" - nariusseldon |
|
|
3/18/12 3:56:07 PM#46
Originally posted by RefMinor The problem is I did random poll sampling for quite a while (market research), for anything from Airlines to Political parties. using census data, voter registration numbers etc.., we had a rough idea on how our sample size represented a certain demographic ( registered republicans in Boise, Idaho as an example, if they weren't they would be omitted from the published results). This information is what made our conclusions possible. Without it the information gathered was useless. On a more related product/service basis, the information we had was provided to us by the company, say we wanted to find the answer to this question."how many passengers of the 2000, who used the service on a certain day had a pleasent experience?" The only way to gauge this is to know, 2000 people used the service, and that you are polling 200 of that 2000/ you need to know how large of a sample you need, in order to get a decent idea of that overall opinion (precedented statistics), which can vary greatly depending on the type of information you're looking for. In short, the main thing you need to know is how your sample fits into your overall pool. Therein lies the issue with using something like xfire. It doesn't tell us much more than the TOR forum here does, it's all completely random with no source information avilable on what the sample size is we're looking at. The best you can possibly hope to learn from it is, TOR dropped a lot in usage by x-fire users. Or, TOR isn't a very popular game here at MMORPG.com.
For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson If you can't argue the point don't say anything at all. |
|
|
3/18/12 4:27:47 PM#47
Lol...for a second there thought I was on the wrong forum. 1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical. 2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself. 3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose. |
|
|
3/18/12 4:37:47 PM#48
Originally posted by evilastro
The problem is that you are so indoctrinated in solving problems you've already encountered that you can't see the forest for the trees. Just because A doesn't directly cause B and vice versa, it doesn't automatically mean that they are unrelated. Depending on the data available, we maybe be able to estimate the relation between them. Here is where old data regarding how Xfire population and total population in other MMORPGs, becomes useful. ------
As for bias: whether or not the bias will affect the result depends on what the question is and what kind of bias it is.
Example: Behold the city of Pawnee. In Pawnee there are exactly 10000 citizens, due to a legislation advocated by their blonde major. Out of those Pawnee-citizens, 8000 prefer oranges over apples, while 2000 prefer apples over oranges. Much like this forum, these citizens do not know temperance, so you have to hate one of those fruits while fanboying the other one.
Out of those 10000, only 1000 owns a Ford. A Ford company is running a health-campaign in Pawnee and as a part of their strategy they want to send a fruit as a present to their previous customers. They are well aware of the very serious fruit war, so they made sure to investigate the taste of all the affected 1000.
The result from the investigation indicates that 802 Ford-owners prefer oranges over apples, while 198 feel the opposite.
But, wait? How the hell is that possible? How is it possible that the tastes are percentwise basically identical? Since we only used Ford-owners, shouldn't there be like, hmmm, OMG, BIAS? We hate bias, right? How can this happen?
Well, it appears as if the preference of fruits in this scenario was practically independent of whether or not you owned a Ford. The bias in form of only choosing Ford-owners and not the full population had, in practice, no significance.
|
|
|
3/18/12 5:52:45 PM#49
Oh god OP what have you done. You invited all the statistic retards and common sense deriven speculants into the GW2 forum either. It was meant to occupy the ignorant fools in the SW forums and distract them from GW2.
Look its not even two pages and they already try to compare the (lacking) interdependence of "fruit preferences vs. car brand choice" with "selection of instant messenger/livesteam software dedicated to online gamers vs. online gamers game preferences)" ... This is literaly comparing apples and oranges. Its like moking the grand history of the apples vs oranges analogy, by making an apples vs oranges comparison with a literal apples vs oranges comparison and failing at the own example at the next greater context in the same move. This is just the start... its like "DUDE 4 post ago you even mistook the playtime with player, just to force your extrapolation results lower, 3 post ago you insisted the increased activity of individual player at launch is insignificant for accumulated playtimehours, when even xfire itself contradicts that, again to force them lower, 2 posts before you drew a straight line trough a f***ing obvious exponential decay curve, again to drag the speculation into depths, 1 post before your called the choice to install a software dedictated to accomodate the very same online games the whole analysis is based upon, "random selection" to defend assumptions with circular reasoning, and now you claim to be an expert scholar at statistical analysis ,who was "always right before" and demand heaps of evidence contradicting your baseless assumptions you cant even support yourself in first place!?" except everything x3/page over and over again You dragged them into this forum... you should feel terrible. 'Seamless world' - A world lacking visible or phys. seams, forming forced breaking points during transition and movement;
|
|
|
3/18/12 6:00:11 PM#50
bravo sir, bravo We really need separate forums for every newly launched game. There can be the anti-<MMO> one and there can be the 'what general discussion should be' one. All the lamenting can happen together where each can find solace in like minded can't-move-on-ers leaving the rest of us to actually move forward and discuss meaningful and relevant topics. |
|
|
3/18/12 6:17:35 PM#51
Originally posted by Sukiyaki
How do you know that the choice of using Xfire is severely related to how a person will change their amount of playtime in a major MMORPG as a function of time? How do you know for sure that they are practically not independent at all? I used cars and fruits in my example, because it would easier to understand the concept if there were clear extremes.
If the "Xfire for measuring trends" -fans can show example after example where the two factors are shown to be very independent, then the burden of proof falls over to the "Xfire for measuring trends"-haters to show examples where there is strong dependance.
Whether or not, any of the groups have shown such examples, I do not know. I am merely commenting the situation per se.
Edit: Even if the bias has a significant effect, it may be of such a form that we can easily take account for it. Imagine if data showed that Xfire-users on average decrease their playtime twice as fast as the average regular user (in MMORPGs), then due to the simplicity of the relation, we can take account for that bias effect.
|
|
|
3/18/12 6:34:27 PM#52
really? Currently bored with MMO's. |
|
|
3/18/12 6:36:23 PM#53
Originally posted by InFaVilla Your example is correct. But you have the actual process backward. What we have here, is that 802 ford owners prefer oranges and 198 prefers apples. We know that there are 10,000 citizens, and based on the above data, we are trying to estimate how many of them prefer oranges. Knowing the actual population statistics is a full cencus, and almost no one has that kind of luxury. If you have previously determines that owning a ford is independent from liking a fruit, then great, you essesntially have a random data set and can proceed to do the statistical analysis. You will infer that 8020 (plus minus some margin of error) likes oranges. But if have no idea whether or not owning a ford is independent from liking a fruit, and absolutely no idea how they are correlated, then the data set is perfectly useless. It could be that ford owners prefers oranges much more compared to the general population, and the actual population statistics is 5000-5000. It could even be that for some reason, ford owners are likely to like oranges, eventhough practially no one else in the population likes it. Then the actual population statistics may be 900-9100. So the key thing is you need to justify that independence first, it cannot just be assumed. I've never used x-fire and don't know much about it, so can't comment on how independent it actually is. |
|
|
3/18/12 6:49:43 PM#54
LOL good one OP! Its funny that I nor any of my gaming pals have never used X-Fire. |
|
|
3/18/12 6:53:22 PM#55
Yeah a game that's not even out yet has reached its peak on something quite a few people don't use it must be dead... |
|
|
3/18/12 7:05:34 PM#56
Originally posted by ananda Thank you for understanding. You are right when you say that the process is backwards since normally we do not know the actual distribution of the target. It was an example to illustrate the point that even though there may be a form a bias, it may not be of relevance.
Of course, independence cannot be just assumed. That's where it is up to the "xfire as a trend indicator" - fans to show either independence or a simple relation between "choosing to use xfire" and "change in playing time (as a function of time)". Because if either of those two are shown, we can start trusting xfire as a trend indicator.
|
|
|
3/18/12 7:14:08 PM#57
Soo... it's still doing better than ToR? |
|
|
3/18/12 7:22:04 PM#58
UGH and the servers are STILL DOWN
/epicfail |
|
|
3/18/12 7:22:37 PM#59
Originally posted by Dragim You know, i've never been interviewed for a presidential poll, yet they generally are within 5 points either way of being right. Now there is nothing scientific about xfire and I feel dirty even using that first sentence, but you can get usefull data from a few as 500 people to tell how nearly 100 million people are going to vote. So the fact that you nor anyone you know uses xfire means nothing. Now the fact that xfire isn't a random sample, however, means everything. Edit: And I knew before clicking that nothing good could come from this thread, and I wasn't wrong. But I just had to, damn lack of self control. |
|
|
3/18/12 7:30:40 PM#60
What's xfire? Sounds dangerous
|
|
Friends: vgchartz.com
Not a member? You can still subscribe to our newsletters and daily updates here!
May 21, 2013 5:21 AM
- Page Created in 0.703 seconds -
