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Star Wars: The Old Republic

Star Wars: The Old Republic 

General Discussion  » Some Numerical Population Data

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46 posts found
  GMan3

Apprentice Member

Joined: 8/27/10
Posts: 2239

3/04/12 6:05:42 PM#21
Originally posted by jacklo
Originally posted by Monorojo

These measurement were taken on the weekday (Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday) for one, which is incredibly laughable.

Also, the method of collection has no real ground to stand on. Peak hour for most servers is not 630 PM, so the servers measured at this time were likely 100-200+ people less than actual peak hour. I know on my server peak doesnt happen til about 1030-1100 PM. I think this is a reflection of the fact that the average player in this game is older (and more mature) than a game like WoW for example.

 

These numbers really show nothing, and for all we know the collector of data could be trying to match the numbers to fit with his agenda. You guys should really take a Stats or Political Science class. The accuracy of data like this is very commonly misconstrued.

I'm sure you would have also found reason to discredit the stats if they were done at a weekend at whichever time you deem to be peak hours.

Add another couple hundred players if you like, the numbers are still appalling.

Fact is, were numbers good, BW would be touting them.

It's already clear that they are trying to hide actual numbers when you see how they are manipulating server load stats each month. But that would also be conjecture on our part wouldn't it?

Out of interest, what figures would you believe in? Do they have to come from BW themselves?

    First off, Monorojo is more accurate in his statements than the OP is.  Education would be the discerning factor is my guess there.  Second, he never says anywhere's that the OP is actually wrong, only that his data, collected at the some of the worst days and times is, at best, suspect.  Oh I am sure they look good if YOU want them too, but any mathematician worth his salt would be laughing his butt off at these numbers.

    Honestly, I do believe that server mergers are on the way.  Not due to these numbers though.  I believe they are on the way because almost every game released in the last 5 years has released with a lot more servers than they needed for the long term.  After all, if people can't play in the beginning, then the develepers get ragged on for that much more than if there are mergers later on.  It is therefore healthier for the game to have extra servers in the beginning and then cut back later on.

    As for manipulating server numbers, all they have done so far is to adjust server loads so that MORE people can play on each server.  Something that makes the servers LOOK emptier when logging in, but actually allows for better play.  Unfortunately, for people that want to do anything they can to tear down a company/game, that can easily be spun to look bad instead of good.

    Lastly, I am just glad this game wasn't made by SOE.  Otherwise we would see an entirely new game being released to totally destroy the current one in a month or two, and then it would never be working to fix bugs or add any real content.  Something BioWare is currently doing pretty well and with more experience I can only see them improving upon.

"If half of what you tell me is a lie, how can I believe any of it?"

  CujoSWAoA

Apprentice Member

Joined: 10/27/04
Posts: 1848

"Pablo Picasso said art is a lie that tells the truth."

3/04/12 6:11:10 PM#22

I can't think of a more popular topic than this that is so absolutely pointless.

  MosesZD

Novice Member

Joined: 2/10/12
Posts: 1407

3/05/12 7:13:36 AM#23
Originally posted by Bardus

I've seen this before, the guy made a toon for both factions on each server and goes around to each planet or zone or whatever and takes a head count. It's accurate for the instant he does it in that zone but still leaves at LOT of room for speculation.

 

Without EA spilling the beans on subscriptions there's just no way to know anything for certain but the lack of any bragging from EA since that 1st month leaves a LOT of speculation going towards things are not going as planned, if they were they would be bragging.

 

They are bragging.   They're bragging about quiet forums and MMO players playing 4-to-6 hours a session.    Which, of course, MMOs like AoC and Warhammer can brag about, too.    Because while they may have less than 100K subs,those subs play 4-to-6 hours each...   And like BioWare, their forums, once hot beds of angry fans screaming at the devs to fix the game with equal amounts of fanboys screaming at the fans they're making too much noise and the game is fine and people aren't quitting are quiet.

 

I still look back on that late Janauary/early February memo...   The one talking about the 1.7 million subs on 12/31/2011...   And the 2.0 million sales at the end of January...      It was like the declaring "we won the game" after the first score when there are still 58 minutes left to play...

 

 

 

 

  MosesZD

Novice Member

Joined: 2/10/12
Posts: 1407

3/05/12 7:14:37 AM#24
Originally posted by CujoSWAoA

I can't think of a more popular topic than this that is so absolutely pointless.

 

Oh, harmony then.  Because I just quoted a post that is absolutely pointless...

  Cromica

Advanced Member

Joined: 6/03/09
Posts: 662

3/05/12 7:26:03 AM#25

This game will be a ghost town if 1.2 is not the best patch ever created.

  MosesZD

Novice Member

Joined: 2/10/12
Posts: 1407

3/05/12 7:27:00 AM#26
Originally posted by Monorojo

These measurement were taken on the weekday (Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday) for one, which is incredibly laughable.

Also, the method of collection has no real ground to stand on. Peak hour for most servers is not 630 PM, so the servers measured at this time were likely 100-200+ people less than actual peak hour. I know on my server peak doesnt happen til about 1030-1100 PM. I think this is a reflection of the fact that the average player in this game is older (and more mature) than a game like WoW for example.

 

These numbers really show nothing, and for all we know the collector of data could be trying to match the numbers to fit with his agenda. You guys should really take a Stats or Political Science class. The accuracy of data like this is very commonly misconstrued.

 

lol.  Liberal arts stats?   People who took that couldn't pass the quantative methods test (quant-exam( needed to matriculate from lower-division (freshman/sophmore) to upper-division (junior/senior) course work.  Sure, it counted as taking a stats course...   But the material was so dumbed down that those that used stats from a social-sciences field ended with a huge performance penalty on the quant-exam.

 

That's why people like me took statistics for engineers and math majors.   Far more rigorous and demanding.    And had you done so, you wouldn't have written the post you wrote.    We're dealing with large populations with scalable and predictible behaviors, and 6:30PM on MWF is as good a time as any AND as long as he's consistent with method, time and place of measurement his data will provide accurate trends.

 

No matter how much you want to live in denial and throw BS against the wall in the hopes some of it sticks.

  MosesZD

Novice Member

Joined: 2/10/12
Posts: 1407

3/05/12 7:51:12 AM#27
Originally posted by alexhpy98721

My server has a lot of people on it, most come to it, rerolling on it because their servers are empty...

 

They need to merge fast, it`s no secret they lose a lot of subs but they said they only need 500k anyway and 500k they have i`m sure of it.

 

So they need to merge the servers and do it fast before they lose whatever other people they have on the low population ones...

 

Don't be so sure it's a long-term 500K.     When Warhammer came out it sold about 800K boxes right off the bat.   The population peaked at 800K.   Because of the intial excitement before realizing the game was bad, people ran out and bought long-term subscriptions either via credit car or game time code. Same with SWTOR. It's what people do.

 

Still, the one-month people quit like crazy.  So while some more units were sold, the quitters far out-weighed the influx and the population dropped to 300k.   A month later the subscriptions were still at 300K, after all, just because nobody isn't using the subscription doesn't mean it's not a subscription.

 

Then those subscriptions ended.    And by June the population was at 150K.   At the one-year anniversary, the population was 100K.

 

Now, here's the important point:  People like me pointed all this out.   And people who had no skills to understand that data, interpret the data but had an emotional investment in the game screamed and yelled, screamed and held thier breaths and told us all our mulitiple, independent sources of data telling us the same exact story -- crashing server populations -- was wrong.  

 

They told us XFire trend analysis was wrong.   They told us server status trends were wrong.   They told us server population counts were wrong.  They told us 'active guild member counts' were wrong.   Even as the game died around them, it took months for them to admit it so strong was their denial.   Then they screamed for server mergers and blamed the people who quit for 'trolling the game and making it fail.'   Just like they're doing right now on the BioWare boards

 

I see the same thing with this game.    And I see it, like Warhammer, going F2P.   The trends are all bad.  I mean, really bad.   Especially the failed marketing campaign.  TV, Internet, Print...   The add are everywhere and the retail sales are in the toilet.   They can't even stop the weekly decline in sales.   There hasn't been one single week better than the prior since the game came out.   A game that sold two million copies by the end of January will be lucky to have sold an additional 150,000 in February.   Despite the marketing.

 

The BioWare fanboys have been harvested (not me).    The Star Wars fanboys have been harvested (me).    Huge swaths have left, probably to never return.    All they have left are the 'MMO players' who, having read, or most likely heard, about how crappy the MMO features of this game are, aren't going to play it.   

 

Where is the market for 500K constant-level subs at $15 a month?     I don't see it.   I think 200K to 300K is achievable if they fix a lot of the game.   If they don't...    Maybe it's Tabula Rosa time...

 

 

  Acmegamer

Novice Member

Joined: 7/16/10
Posts: 337

3/05/12 8:59:13 AM#28
Originally posted by Bardus

I've seen this before, the guy made a toon for both factions on each server and goes around to each planet or zone or whatever and takes a head count. It's accurate for the instant he does it in that zone but still leaves at LOT of room for speculation.

 

Without EA spilling the beans on subscriptions there's just no way to know anything for certain but the lack of any bragging from EA since that 1st month leaves a LOT of speculation going towards things are not going as planned, if they were they would be bragging.

 

   I did something similar for a few days in a more generic sense. That said, sure his info isn't totally accurate but like what I monitored it can give you a good sense of what is going on. So I wouldn't discount the data by any means, Bardus.

 

 

  ajax7

Novice Member

Joined: 1/15/07
Posts: 367

The Greatest Story Ever Told Yours.

3/05/12 9:22:04 AM#29
Originally posted by Monorojo

These measurement were taken on the weekday (Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday) for one, which is incredibly laughable.

Also, the method of collection has no real ground to stand on. Peak hour for most servers is not 630 PM, so the servers measured at this time were likely 100-200+ people less than actual peak hour. I know on my server peak doesnt happen til about 1030-1100 PM. I think this is a reflection of the fact that the average player in this game is older (and more mature) than a game like WoW for example.

 

These numbers really show nothing, and for all we know the collector of data could be trying to match the numbers to fit with his agenda. You guys should really take a Stats or Political Science class. The accuracy of data like this is very commonly misconstrued.

I notice the servers peak about 9:30PM on most days Sunday are very crowded.

 

Were the SWG General Disscusions like SWTOR's al negative and such.

 

Ajax

  hikaru77

Hard Core Member

Joined: 3/28/07
Posts: 947

3/05/12 9:54:28 AM#30

Just LoL at this ¨Population Data¨ when you have people log in and log out all the time info like this is just useless. I mean, people dont play 24/7 so in 2hs you can have like 1000 different players log in and log out from the game in a single server. 

You want real info about the population? http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/stats  that is. 

  User Deleted
3/05/12 9:57:53 AM#31
Originally posted by ajax7

 

Were the SWG General Disscusions like SWTOR's al negative and such.

 

 

The official forums were.   I don't know what the forums here were like until after the NGE.

 

SWG:  You definitely had the people playing the game as one crowd and the people who played the forums were another crowd.   In game for me at least was pretty pleasant... the forums were just as bad as for TOR.

 

At least that's what I remember.. someone else may have a different perception of things.

 

 

  AmbrosiaAmor

Hard Core Member

Joined: 11/24/10
Posts: 734

3/05/12 10:05:43 AM#32
Bioware will have to merge servers sooner or later. But chances are they are going to wait till later until some servers really do hit critically low numbers. They won't do it this soon because it will look really bad all around for such a huge AAA MMO title to have to merge so soon. Those folks that subscribed for 30 days only had their time run out I think yesterday or today. Those that got the 60 day prepaid cards won't have their time run out till the beginning of the 3rd week of March.
 
 
So while I am sure the company is looking closely at population numbers and simultaneous log ins, I don't think they will act till anytime sooner than that. If they make an announcement of merges it most likely won't happen till the end of Spring with the actual merger happening till sometime during the summer at the earliest. Granted all MMOs do have some sort of decline especially during the 1st couple of months, but let's hope it isn't a nosedive. News travel much faster today than let's say 5-10 years ago, so they need that PR balancing act.
 
 
I'm pretty sure they were hoping not to have to merge before the 1st year is up, but things don't always go according to plan.

  Monorojo

Novice Member

Joined: 6/19/08
Posts: 422

3/05/12 12:21:22 PM#33
Originally posted by MosesZD
Originally posted by Monorojo

These measurement were taken on the weekday (Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday) for one, which is incredibly laughable.

Also, the method of collection has no real ground to stand on. Peak hour for most servers is not 630 PM, so the servers measured at this time were likely 100-200+ people less than actual peak hour. I know on my server peak doesnt happen til about 1030-1100 PM. I think this is a reflection of the fact that the average player in this game is older (and more mature) than a game like WoW for example.

 

These numbers really show nothing, and for all we know the collector of data could be trying to match the numbers to fit with his agenda. You guys should really take a Stats or Political Science class. The accuracy of data like this is very commonly misconstrued.

 

lol.  Liberal arts stats?   People who took that couldn't pass the quantative methods test (quant-exam( needed to matriculate from lower-division (freshman/sophmore) to upper-division (junior/senior) course work.  Sure, it counted as taking a stats course...   But the material was so dumbed down that those that used stats from a social-sciences field ended with a huge performance penalty on the quant-exam.

 

That's why people like me took statistics for engineers and math majors.   Far more rigorous and demanding.    And had you done so, you wouldn't have written the post you wrote.    We're dealing with large populations with scalable and predictible behaviors, and 6:30PM on MWF is as good a time as any AND as long as he's consistent with method, time and place of measurement his data will provide accurate trends.

 

No matter how much you want to live in denial and throw BS against the wall in the hopes some of it sticks.

Yikes so much wrong with this post. It wasnt MWF it was MThFfor one. Second you dont have to take a more rigorous course to be aware of the fundamental problems with this kind of data collection from an untrusted third party source.

  dotdotdash

Apprentice Member

Joined: 6/01/11
Posts: 343

3/05/12 12:39:51 PM#34
Originally posted by Monorojo
Originally posted by MosesZD
Originally posted by Monorojo

These measurement were taken on the weekday (Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday) for one, which is incredibly laughable.

Also, the method of collection has no real ground to stand on. Peak hour for most servers is not 630 PM, so the servers measured at this time were likely 100-200+ people less than actual peak hour. I know on my server peak doesnt happen til about 1030-1100 PM. I think this is a reflection of the fact that the average player in this game is older (and more mature) than a game like WoW for example.

 

These numbers really show nothing, and for all we know the collector of data could be trying to match the numbers to fit with his agenda. You guys should really take a Stats or Political Science class. The accuracy of data like this is very commonly misconstrued.

 

lol.  Liberal arts stats?   People who took that couldn't pass the quantative methods test (quant-exam( needed to matriculate from lower-division (freshman/sophmore) to upper-division (junior/senior) course work.  Sure, it counted as taking a stats course...   But the material was so dumbed down that those that used stats from a social-sciences field ended with a huge performance penalty on the quant-exam.

 

That's why people like me took statistics for engineers and math majors.   Far more rigorous and demanding.    And had you done so, you wouldn't have written the post you wrote.    We're dealing with large populations with scalable and predictible behaviors, and 6:30PM on MWF is as good a time as any AND as long as he's consistent with method, time and place of measurement his data will provide accurate trends.

 

No matter how much you want to live in denial and throw BS against the wall in the hopes some of it sticks.

Yikes so much wrong with this post. It wasnt MWF it was MThFfor one. Second you dont have to take a more rigorous course to be aware of the fundamental problems with this kind of data collection from an untrusted third party source.

You don't have to take such a course to be aware of the inherent strengths of this kind of data collection either.

People like you really do baffle me. Every metric available to us suggests that the game's active population is declining, which invariably suggests that the number of active subscriptions is declining. There are no metrics available that tell us anything different. You can draw attention to the weaknesses inherent to those metrics, but it doesn't change the fact that they offer valuable and insiteful information supported by very reasonable and acceptable data collection methodology. 

You can muddy the water all you want. It's a favoured tactic of those that have no counterpoint. It's best to discredit the testimony of the "other side" to the Nth degree, rather than offer your own data or information that suggests anything different to the above. You obviously have no meaninful counterpoint to make, so it's best to just blow hot air endlessly. And whilst those you detract have gone to great lengths to be as transparent as possible, you refuse to move beyond the vagueries of your argument because - when it comes down to it - you don't actually have a point beyond, "well regardless of what the data says, it may be wrong."

Yeah... it may be wrong. That's always a possibility. It's not a good foundation for an argument however, and It's not the death nail you seem to think it is.

  teoyaomiqui

Novice Member

Joined: 7/15/08
Posts: 98

3/05/12 12:56:19 PM#35

I tend to agree with the opinion that the subs are declining, that is based on x-fire, tor-status and mmo-junkies, and is supported by my personal view of the game. Played 60 bucks for  poorly executed avarage mmo, that said to be "epic" omg best game. But i can't say that you have undisputed facts that the game is declining, and the real argument that beats all xfire-mmojunkies etc... quater report, that have shown 80% retention rate (Or something like that).

 

  GMan3

Apprentice Member

Joined: 8/27/10
Posts: 2239

3/05/12 2:31:14 PM#36
Originally posted by dotdotdash
Originally posted by Monorojo
Originally posted by MosesZD
Originally posted by Monorojo

These measurement were taken on the weekday (Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday) for one, which is incredibly laughable.

Also, the method of collection has no real ground to stand on. Peak hour for most servers is not 630 PM, so the servers measured at this time were likely 100-200+ people less than actual peak hour. I know on my server peak doesnt happen til about 1030-1100 PM. I think this is a reflection of the fact that the average player in this game is older (and more mature) than a game like WoW for example.

 

These numbers really show nothing, and for all we know the collector of data could be trying to match the numbers to fit with his agenda. You guys should really take a Stats or Political Science class. The accuracy of data like this is very commonly misconstrued.

 

lol.  Liberal arts stats?   People who took that couldn't pass the quantative methods test (quant-exam( needed to matriculate from lower-division (freshman/sophmore) to upper-division (junior/senior) course work.  Sure, it counted as taking a stats course...   But the material was so dumbed down that those that used stats from a social-sciences field ended with a huge performance penalty on the quant-exam.

 

That's why people like me took statistics for engineers and math majors.   Far more rigorous and demanding.    And had you done so, you wouldn't have written the post you wrote.    We're dealing with large populations with scalable and predictible behaviors, and 6:30PM on MWF is as good a time as any AND as long as he's consistent with method, time and place of measurement his data will provide accurate trends.

 

No matter how much you want to live in denial and throw BS against the wall in the hopes some of it sticks.

Yikes so much wrong with this post. It wasnt MWF it was MThFfor one. Second you dont have to take a more rigorous course to be aware of the fundamental problems with this kind of data collection from an untrusted third party source.

You don't have to take such a course to be aware of the inherent strengths of this kind of data collection either.

People like you really do baffle me. Every metric available to us suggests that the game's active population is declining, which invariably suggests that the number of active subscriptions is declining. There are no metrics available that tell us anything different. You can draw attention to the weaknesses inherent to those metrics, but it doesn't change the fact that they offer valuable and insiteful information supported by very reasonable and acceptable data collection methodology. 

You can muddy the water all you want. It's a favoured tactic of those that have no counterpoint. It's best to discredit the testimony of the "other side" to the Nth degree, rather than offer your own data or information that suggests anything different to the above. You obviously have no meaninful counterpoint to make, so it's best to just blow hot air endlessly. And whilst those you detract have gone to great lengths to be as transparent as possible, you refuse to move beyond the vagueries of your argument because - when it comes down to it - you don't actually have a point beyond, "well regardless of what the data says, it may be wrong."

Yeah... it may be wrong. That's always a possibility. It's not a good foundation for an argument however, and It's not the death nail you seem to think it is.

    The biggest problem I see with this persons data collection, it that it is being done (suspiciously?) on the lowest played days of pretty much any MMO. This makes for the absolute worst looking data available. That alone is a little on the wonkie side. Add to that it is only data for three days out of a seven day week. Regardless of how you look at it, that weakens his arguement. Third, I have to agree with the first poster that the time is not, in my experience, peak playing hours by any means. Fourth, I see no comparisson being done to previous weeks for the last few months. Fifth, I see a huge problem with assuming that 6 planets and the fleet station represents 45% of the playing population. That totally ignores anyone that is traveling, engaging in Space Combat, playing a Flashpoint, playing an Operation, or playing a PvP Match.  Oh and then Sixth, he is assuming that one server is representational of ALL the other servers.  That alone is particularly stupid. Fif 

    Keep in mind, I am not suggesting the population is not making a downward trend, but half baked data collection and figures based on it can supply only the worst possible information.  I had an old friend of mine check out this thread last night.  Math Major in college and currently working as a statistician for the last 20 years.  AFTER he got done laughing at the original source pages methods, he then had a rather rousing time with most of the armchair mathematician supports in this thread.  He then surprised me when he told me he plays the game as well and is seeing a drop in players, but the information gleaned from this "data" is so far off as to be useless.  Even went so far as to call it "Politician Statistics".  Ouch!    

"If half of what you tell me is a lie, how can I believe any of it?"

  teoyaomiqui

Novice Member

Joined: 7/15/08
Posts: 98

3/06/12 1:31:33 AM#37

I agree that this date collected only once, means absolutely nothing, but if this data collection is going to continue, you will see how population is doing in those areas at specific times at specific places, is it droping or growing.

I don't see how your friend mathmaticians have a point, i have math major as well, in fact I have 2 majors that are connected with mathematics, and I can say that the sample is big enough, and the conditions at which sample is taken are presistant, so this data is very viable if he continues to collect it for atleast 8+ weeks., 1 week is not enough definately... as well as 2 or three weeks, since there can be third party factors that can influence the population at given times.

Sorry for poor english.

  Monorojo

Novice Member

Joined: 6/19/08
Posts: 422

3/06/12 1:36:41 AM#38
Originally posted by dotdotdash
Originally posted by Monorojo
Originally posted by MosesZD
Originally posted by Monorojo

These measurement were taken on the weekday (Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday) for one, which is incredibly laughable.

Also, the method of collection has no real ground to stand on. Peak hour for most servers is not 630 PM, so the servers measured at this time were likely 100-200+ people less than actual peak hour. I know on my server peak doesnt happen til about 1030-1100 PM. I think this is a reflection of the fact that the average player in this game is older (and more mature) than a game like WoW for example.

 

These numbers really show nothing, and for all we know the collector of data could be trying to match the numbers to fit with his agenda. You guys should really take a Stats or Political Science class. The accuracy of data like this is very commonly misconstrued.

 

lol.  Liberal arts stats?   People who took that couldn't pass the quantative methods test (quant-exam( needed to matriculate from lower-division (freshman/sophmore) to upper-division (junior/senior) course work.  Sure, it counted as taking a stats course...   But the material was so dumbed down that those that used stats from a social-sciences field ended with a huge performance penalty on the quant-exam.

 

That's why people like me took statistics for engineers and math majors.   Far more rigorous and demanding.    And had you done so, you wouldn't have written the post you wrote.    We're dealing with large populations with scalable and predictible behaviors, and 6:30PM on MWF is as good a time as any AND as long as he's consistent with method, time and place of measurement his data will provide accurate trends.

 

No matter how much you want to live in denial and throw BS against the wall in the hopes some of it sticks.

Yikes so much wrong with this post. It wasnt MWF it was MThFfor one. Second you dont have to take a more rigorous course to be aware of the fundamental problems with this kind of data collection from an untrusted third party source.

You don't have to take such a course to be aware of the inherent strengths of this kind of data collection either.

People like you really do baffle me. Every metric available to us suggests that the game's active population is declining, which invariably suggests that the number of active subscriptions is declining. There are no metrics available that tell us anything different. You can draw attention to the weaknesses inherent to those metrics, but it doesn't change the fact that they offer valuable and insiteful information supported by very reasonable and acceptable data collection methodology. 

You can muddy the water all you want. It's a favoured tactic of those that have no counterpoint. It's best to discredit the testimony of the "other side" to the Nth degree, rather than offer your own data or information that suggests anything different to the above. You obviously have no meaninful counterpoint to make, so it's best to just blow hot air endlessly. And whilst those you detract have gone to great lengths to be as transparent as possible, you refuse to move beyond the vagueries of your argument because - when it comes down to it - you don't actually have a point beyond, "well regardless of what the data says, it may be wrong."

Yeah... it may be wrong. That's always a possibility. It's not a good foundation for an argument however, and It's not the death nail you seem to think it is.

How does this data showing a declining population when it is just one week? You are literally making no sense here.

  Monorojo

Novice Member

Joined: 6/19/08
Posts: 422

3/06/12 1:38:22 AM#39
Originally posted by GMan3
Originally posted by dotdotdash
Originally posted by Monorojo
Originally posted by MosesZD
Originally posted by Monorojo

These measurement were taken on the weekday (Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday) for one, which is incredibly laughable.

Also, the method of collection has no real ground to stand on. Peak hour for most servers is not 630 PM, so the servers measured at this time were likely 100-200+ people less than actual peak hour. I know on my server peak doesnt happen til about 1030-1100 PM. I think this is a reflection of the fact that the average player in this game is older (and more mature) than a game like WoW for example.

 

These numbers really show nothing, and for all we know the collector of data could be trying to match the numbers to fit with his agenda. You guys should really take a Stats or Political Science class. The accuracy of data like this is very commonly misconstrued.

 

lol.  Liberal arts stats?   People who took that couldn't pass the quantative methods test (quant-exam( needed to matriculate from lower-division (freshman/sophmore) to upper-division (junior/senior) course work.  Sure, it counted as taking a stats course...   But the material was so dumbed down that those that used stats from a social-sciences field ended with a huge performance penalty on the quant-exam.

 

That's why people like me took statistics for engineers and math majors.   Far more rigorous and demanding.    And had you done so, you wouldn't have written the post you wrote.    We're dealing with large populations with scalable and predictible behaviors, and 6:30PM on MWF is as good a time as any AND as long as he's consistent with method, time and place of measurement his data will provide accurate trends.

 

No matter how much you want to live in denial and throw BS against the wall in the hopes some of it sticks.

Yikes so much wrong with this post. It wasnt MWF it was MThFfor one. Second you dont have to take a more rigorous course to be aware of the fundamental problems with this kind of data collection from an untrusted third party source.

You don't have to take such a course to be aware of the inherent strengths of this kind of data collection either.

People like you really do baffle me. Every metric available to us suggests that the game's active population is declining, which invariably suggests that the number of active subscriptions is declining. There are no metrics available that tell us anything different. You can draw attention to the weaknesses inherent to those metrics, but it doesn't change the fact that they offer valuable and insiteful information supported by very reasonable and acceptable data collection methodology. 

You can muddy the water all you want. It's a favoured tactic of those that have no counterpoint. It's best to discredit the testimony of the "other side" to the Nth degree, rather than offer your own data or information that suggests anything different to the above. You obviously have no meaninful counterpoint to make, so it's best to just blow hot air endlessly. And whilst those you detract have gone to great lengths to be as transparent as possible, you refuse to move beyond the vagueries of your argument because - when it comes down to it - you don't actually have a point beyond, "well regardless of what the data says, it may be wrong."

Yeah... it may be wrong. That's always a possibility. It's not a good foundation for an argument however, and It's not the death nail you seem to think it is.

    The biggest problem I see with this persons data collection, it that it is being done (suspiciously?) on the lowest played days of pretty much any MMO. This makes for the absolute worst looking data available. That alone is a little on the wonkie side. Add to that it is only data for three days out of a seven day week. Regardless of how you look at it, that weakens his arguement. Third, I have to agree with the first poster that the time is not, in my experience, peak playing hours by any means. Fourth, I see no comparisson being done to previous weeks for the last few months. Fifth, I see a huge problem with assuming that 6 planets and the fleet station represents 45% of the playing population. That totally ignores anyone that is traveling, engaging in Space Combat, playing a Flashpoint, playing an Operation, or playing a PvP Match.  Oh and then Sixth, he is assuming that one server is representational of ALL the other servers.  That alone is particularly stupid. Fif 

    Keep in mind, I am not suggesting the population is not making a downward trend, but half baked data collection and figures based on it can supply only the worst possible information.  I had an old friend of mine check out this thread last night.  Math Major in college and currently working as a statistician for the last 20 years.  AFTER he got done laughing at the original source pages methods, he then had a rather rousing time with most of the armchair mathematician supports in this thread.  He then surprised me when he told me he plays the game as well and is seeing a drop in players, but the information gleaned from this "data" is so far off as to be useless.  Even went so far as to call it "Politician Statistics".  Ouch!    

Exactly. Underlined what people should read and get from this "data".

  noncley

Apprentice Member

Joined: 1/16/12
Posts: 618

3/06/12 2:38:29 AM#40
Originally posted by Ryukan
Originally posted by Elikal

Can someone sum this up? I am too lazy for so many charts.

Yeah, it means that server merges are going to be incoming sooner rather than later.

I don't think there will be server mergers, not for a long time, because that would be an admission by EA that the game was haemmorhaging subscribers and EA can't afford to admit that.

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