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MMORPG.com Discussion Forums

Star Wars: The Old Republic

Star Wars: The Old Republic 

General Discussion  » Seems like the game has peaked on XFire

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1805 posts found
  Sukiyaki

Elite Member

Joined: 8/14/09
Posts: 1288

2/12/12 6:22:39 PM#941
Originally posted by Vrika
Originally posted by Sukiyaki

 They are always affected by an almost permanent decline, which I have seen never considered. 

Look at the 4th column of my table.

DATE SWTOR WOW SWTOR/WOW
Dec 24th 62k hours 79k hours 78%
Dec 31st 63k hours 72k hours 88%
Jan 7th 73k hours 102k hours 72%
Jan 14th 68k hours 101k hours 67%
Jan 21st 56k hours 96k hours 58%
Jan 28th 40k hours 98k hours 41%
Feb 4th 44k hours 82k hours 54%
Feb 11th 39k hours 89k hours 44%

 

I think that by dividing SWTOR hours played with WoW hours played, it should be possible to eliminate the changes in number of XFire users.

Of course most MMORPG.com users will not look beoynd the 3rd row, because those numbers that are thousands of hours look much cooler then percents.

Er no? Not really? You are calculating with accumulated playtimes, not even online activity of player . I am talking about each individual player using xfire which of course the playtimehours are related to. You are doing it backwards from hours to players, but you are completely ignoring the individual playtime hour trends as a factor for the general playtime hours. Even the daily online activity on xfire (even when not as much) are related to the daily individual activity. A person who plays only 3 days a week instead of the 6 during launch is not suddenly just half a person. But you left it out completely. And this is yet another example why I say the speculation is stupid because you guys continously make such obvious yet grave errors. I am not even insting the game is not dropping on subscriber, just these postulations made here and the reasoning is mostly fundamentally wrong and I continue to point it out. (Yes I made a similar datatable once before but the point was to mock and shoo away some WoW fanbois who called the game dying and a flop based on xfire playtime, when WoW had hardly much more, not to support xfire)

What you are currently doing is even almost pointless for the argument about the subscriber and could actually end up with results "appearing" in favor of SWTOR because unlike some guys would ever admit, SWTOR is currently slowing down with its decline both in daily playtime hours and online activity aka its leveling out, while those of WoW started to drop faster the last weeks.

Of course I would not expect any MMORPG user look at the 5th row which is factoring the playtime hours of the vs daily active user in the 4th row and repeat that for the next several games to bring everything into a context  before making any statements about it and take a look at what really going on, because hitting stop at the next discovered pleasantly dropping numbers irrelevant of what they actually tell is so much easier..

 

How about we look at this:  (datapoints from each week wednesday)

This is a often enough brought up argument despite its importance fast ridiculed as "insignificant". SWToR player on xifre start to play at normal rates, instead of increased. Its a drop of almost 40% for the average individual player. Keyword is "normal". This is a frequently ignored key factor for the drop of playtime hours that occurs after ANY launch even xpacks. This is why saying 60% playtime hours loss = 60% player loss is just not right. Of course player may quit either. But people here including yourself act like these other trends dont even exist or happily overlook them and just grasp for anything thats going "down" and then base your whole speculation on just that.

At this point of time the game is even slightly above most of the others, (Aion being an exception because it launched it beta as F2P) the game is still in the normalization phase (and all just on xfire). Its of course open to question whether it would be higher if existing "quitter" wouldnt play less before actually quitting, but thats not relevant to my point. The game is dropping so fast in playtimehours, just like any game including WoW after any expansion, but not because it is losing player at the same rate as it is frequently attempted to look like or even insisted to do. Thats a simply untrue or at least unproven statement.

And this whole matter is even pretty much irrelevant to the almost permanent drop of xfire itself I was talking about. Because just holding two games against each other is inaccurate itself. The other may drop or grow for other reasons, you cant even tell how much that was affected by the drop. Just like Wow in you sample is dropping faster than usual. The simplest and probably only way would be looking at games that have official stats ONLY about Western player, not even sampling multiple games and compare them to later dates would give you accurate answers. Any of them could just really decline or even grow and skew the results completely. We didnt even touch again the mater of mere correlation with real stats.

  jacklo

Novice Member

Joined: 7/29/09
Posts: 582

2/12/12 6:52:25 PM#942

The reason people are resorting to third party charts and measurements is because they are seeing a significant population decline in-game.

When they comment about it in the forums you get fanboys ridiculing every post on the subject.

It's difficult to prove the point without hard facts and these charts are just one way of adding some weight to their argument.

No they're not accurate by any means, neither do they have to be when it's easy to see just by playing the game.

 

  Vrika

Elite Member

Joined: 10/03/05
Posts: 1984

2/13/12 1:35:39 AM#943

Sukiyaki I think I need to clarify

1. By dividing SWTOR time played with WoW time played I get a relative number (eg. 44%)

2. The relative number will be changed by both changes in WoW and changes in SWTOR, but it should eliminate changes that affect both games equally

3. Even if XFire userbase suddenly dropped 50% or increased 100% that relative number should stay roughly the same. That is assuming that the group who stops/starts using XFire doesn't have much different MMO gaming habits from all XFire users, which I think is a reasonable assumption.

4. You complained that you hadn't seen decline in XFire userbase taken into account, so I posted and pointed out that there's been an attempt to do that.

5. I agree that my numbers don't tell SWTOR subcriber numbers. My table was intented to be an indicator of relative player activity WoW vs. SWTOR.

EDIT: The table was supposed to be titled SWTOR vs. WoW time played on XFire. It looks like the title went missing when I copied it from my previous post. I apologize for that mistake /EDIT

  vectrexevo

Advanced Member

Joined: 3/27/10
Posts: 135

2/13/12 1:39:20 AM#944

I find myself not wanting to log in to SWTOR any longer. It has become boring, very very boring.

  Margulis

Advanced Member

Joined: 12/14/08
Posts: 1643

2/13/12 4:49:36 AM#945

So many excuses - it is what it is - the population is dropping and the trends show it.  The data doesn't have to be 100% accurate to show a trend, deal with it people.

  patrikd23

Novice Member

Joined: 10/17/04
Posts: 1198

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts.

2/13/12 4:53:40 AM#946

Not all people use xfire, so its not really an acuarate number. If it would be total subs and people online and for how long it would be intressting.

  superniceguy

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/17/07
Posts: 2251

NGE, LOTRO, STO, KOTOR, Lego Star Wars > NGE 2 (SWTOR). SWG>ALL. Above hopefully subject to change.

2/13/12 6:24:47 AM#947
Originally posted by patrikd23

Not all people use xfire, so its not really an acuarate number. If it would be total subs and people online and for how long it would be intressting.

Not really looking at Xfire for the numbers though for actual population, but to see how well it is performing.  Xfire is good, as it is compatible with virtually all latest games, whereas things like Steam only handles a select few games.

If the figures are more or less the same then it is stabilised - people quitting are then replaced by new people joining. If the figures increase then it is doing good, as not only people are still playing but more people are joining which it should be doing at this stage of the games life, but if it is dropping which it is showing atm, then people are just leaving, which for a new MMO which is supposed to keep you subbing for about 10 years, is not a good sign.

If everyone used Xfire I am sure it would still show that the number of people playing SWTOR is dropping.

During the week last week it was 7001 and below to about 6400 being the worst day, but did shoot up to 7337 for Sunday, which is natural for weekends, although Sat yesterday was about 6900, but last weekend was about 7900 on both Sat and Sun. A loss of 1000 on Sat, and a loss of about 600 for Sun.

STO is doing good atm, http://www.xfire.com/games/sto/Star_Trek_Online/  Although clearly not as many people playing as SWTOR, but it has grown and stabilised, and may grow further. Since it went F2P in Jan 17, over the month, it has been doing nothing but climbing, and now staying around the #20 position. SWTOR is just doing the opposite, and just staying at #5 as there is obviously a large gap between #5 and #6 as oppsoed to games lower in the Xfire charts

 

  FrodoFragins

Hard Core Member

Joined: 4/29/10
Posts: 2758

2/13/12 6:35:46 AM#948
Originally posted by Vrika

Sukiyaki I think I need to clarify

1. By dividing SWTOR time played with WoW time played I get a relative number (eg. 44%)

2. The relative number will be changed by both changes in WoW and changes in SWTOR, but it should eliminate changes that affect both games equally

3. Even if XFire userbase suddenly dropped 50% or increased 100% that relative number should stay roughly the same. That is assuming that the group who stops/starts using XFire doesn't have much different MMO gaming habits from all XFire users, which I think is a reasonable assumption.

4. You complained that you hadn't seen decline in XFire userbase taken into account, so I posted and pointed out that there's been an attempt to do that.

5. I agree that my numbers don't tell SWTOR subcriber numbers. My table was intented to be an indicator of relative player activity WoW vs. SWTOR.

EDIT: The table was supposed to be titled SWTOR vs. WoW time played on XFire. It looks like the title went missing when I copied it from my previous post. I apologize for that mistake /EDIT

Suki's numbers make sense, yours do not.  The numbers you posted are only useful if both games have the same number of users.  Suki's at least show numbers based on a per player basis.

 

People tend to play a lot more when leveling and then taper down after that as there's only so much to do at that point.

 

The most useful number is the number of players playing the game each day and tracking that.

  Vrika

Elite Member

Joined: 10/03/05
Posts: 1984

2/13/12 11:35:25 AM#949
Originally posted by FrodoFragins
Suki's numbers make sense, yours do not.  The numbers you posted are only useful if both games have the same number of users.  Suki's at least show numbers based on a per player basis.

 

People tend to play a lot more when leveling and then taper down after that as there's only so much to do at that point.

 

The most useful number is the number of players playing the game each day and tracking that.

I'm trying to track NUMBER OF HOURS PLAYED.

If I were trying to track number of people who play each day, or number of subcribers, then I would need to watch the number of players. I'm not trying to do that.

  Chieftan

Novice Member

Joined: 5/16/05
Posts: 1416

2/14/12 5:26:13 PM#950

Players per day:

WOW  17,088

SWTOR  6,475

AION 871

STO(free to play) 1,111

EVE 1,141

LOTR(free to play) 908

Guild Wars(free to play) 995

Rift 495

DC Universe 548

Age of Conan(free to play) 173

 

Ok so SWTOR players are averaging 4.94 hours played per day. 

And if Rift is doing enough business to be healthy and stay afloat with those numbers, I don't think SWTOR has anything to worry about.  They're not going to pull the plug and close up shop anytime soon.

Anyway one of my friends is bugging me to get on SWTOR.  Cya!

 

 

 

 

 

5 hours of ESO videos...and counting

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLOxuLTBCUXiJYdTTHCv4xpbOWKZKaZ17-

  keithian

Hard Core Member

Joined: 5/20/06
Posts: 2943

2/14/12 5:33:20 PM#951
Originally posted by Chieftan

Players per day:

WOW  17,088

SWTOR  6,475

AION 871

STO(free to play) 1,111

EVE 1,141

LOTR(free to play) 908

Guild Wars(free to play) 995

Rift 495

DC Universe 548

Age of Conan(free to play) 173

 

Ok so SWTOR players are averaging 4.94 hours played per day. 

And if Rift is doing enough business to be healthy and stay afloat with those numbers, I don't think SWTOR has anything to worry about.  They're not going to pull the plug and close up shop anytime soon.

Anyway one of my friends is bugging me to get on SWTOR.  Cya!

 

 

 

 

 

I wish I had 4.94 hours a day to play games :-( lol

There Is Always Hope!

  Wickedjelly

Novice Member

Joined: 4/19/09
Posts: 5064

The Dude abides

2/14/12 5:38:17 PM#952
Originally posted by keithian

I wish I had 4.94 hours a day to play games :-( lol

You and me both. Although considering how much I get to screw around on the internet at work as it is I suppose I shouldn't complain.

XD

Just wish my pc at work could handle the games I play

>_>

1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.

2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.

3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.

  superniceguy

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/17/07
Posts: 2251

NGE, LOTRO, STO, KOTOR, Lego Star Wars > NGE 2 (SWTOR). SWG>ALL. Above hopefully subject to change.

2/14/12 5:48:50 PM#953
Originally posted by Chieftan

Players per day:

WOW  17,088

SWTOR  6,475

AION 871

STO(free to play) 1,111

EVE 1,141

LOTR(free to play) 908

Guild Wars(free to play) 995

Rift 495

DC Universe 548

Age of Conan(free to play) 173

 

Ok so SWTOR players are averaging 4.94 hours played per day. 

And if Rift is doing enough business to be healthy and stay afloat with those numbers, I don't think SWTOR has anything to worry about.  They're not going to pull the plug and close up shop anytime soon.

Anyway one of my friends is bugging me to get on SWTOR.  Cya!

 

 

 

 

 


The figures for SWTOR are dropping daily, last week it was 7001 for Monday. As people start to reach 50 they seem to be quitting more so than other MMOs at max level.

Also SWTOR is under licence, so would need higher numbers than other MMOs that do not, like Rift.

When they announced SWG to shut down, it had more people playing it than DC Universe. Nothing is safe where LA is concerned. They are no longer wanting to work with 3rd party developers, and Bioware is the last with  SWTOR (unless they change their mind again) and unless EA sells Bioware to LA, then there will probably not be a KOTOR 3 at all.

The only thing that is going to keep SWTOR afloat for now, is that they have already made loads of content for it, and has a licence for it for a while with LA. If by the time the licence comes up for reneal and LA do not think the game is working out well, they could pull it like SWG, and then just focus on developing games themselves.

  Chieftan

Novice Member

Joined: 5/16/05
Posts: 1416

2/14/12 11:03:29 PM#954
Originally posted by superniceguy


The figures for SWTOR are dropping daily, last week it was 7001 for Monday. As people start to reach 50 they seem to be quitting more so than other MMOs at max level.

Also SWTOR is under licence, so would need higher numbers than other MMOs that do not, like Rift.

Really?  Who says?  I'm sure you wouldn't be taking something a competitor said and interpreting it in your own special way.

5 hours of ESO videos...and counting

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLOxuLTBCUXiJYdTTHCv4xpbOWKZKaZ17-

  superniceguy

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/17/07
Posts: 2251

NGE, LOTRO, STO, KOTOR, Lego Star Wars > NGE 2 (SWTOR). SWG>ALL. Above hopefully subject to change.

2/15/12 6:43:59 AM#955
Originally posted by Chieftan
Originally posted by superniceguy


The figures for SWTOR are dropping daily, last week it was 7001 for Monday. As people start to reach 50 they seem to be quitting more so than other MMOs at max level.

Also SWTOR is under licence, so would need higher numbers than other MMOs that do not, like Rift.

Really?  Who says?  I'm sure you wouldn't be taking something a competitor said and interpreting it in your own special way.

Because that is what happened with SWG and the reason it closed, it was under a licence. Star Wars is the IP of LA, and LA licenece the SW brand to SOE, Bioware etc It is not something that a competitor said, it is common knowledge. SWTOR is developed by Bioware and published by LA and EA, with IP under LA and licenced out to EA/Bioware. Rift is develeoped and published all by Trion Worlds, and is their IP, not licencing involved.

If LA can pull the plug on SWG, they can pull the plug on SWTOR, but who knows whet goes through LAs mind, they seem to do whatever they want, and do not seem very focussed lately, and not wanting to let 3rd party developers create their games any more, which is why there is no Battlefront 3, as doubt if LA created it it will be as good.

Licencing and SOE having to buy the SW licence, was the only reason SWG shut down. Vanguard has virtually zero population, and both the only 2 servers have been rock bottom for years, and when SOE announced the shutdown of SWG it had 4 full servers and the rest medium/light, and could have lasted a bit longer on 4 full servers like they did with DCUO, which only has 4 servers. In fact last year SOE were in discussions to merge servers further with the possibility of dropping down to four. Smedley said in of his interviews about SWG closing, that if SWG was not under a licence he would have kept it going.

  zymurgeist

Hard Core Member

Joined: 12/24/04
Posts: 5178

2/15/12 6:47:59 AM#956
Originally posted by Kimmyboy
SW TOR's stats are dramatic.
 
Highest point in activity: 81K in the launching weeks.
Lowest point in activity: today at 25K.
 
Highest point of players: 11.6K in the launching weeks.
Lowest point of players: 5.8K today.
 
That's a loss of 70% in activity and exactly 50% loss in player numbers in 7 weeks (!).
 
 
Since its launching week, SW TOR added a huge bunch of new people due to more sales (round 500K extra copies were sold). All these new players had zero influence on these drops
 
The retention is worse than WAR. Incredible but true as WAR still had a 40% retention of Xfire players after 4 months.
 
Successful games grew in activity over several years. The latest example was League of Legends which grew from top 10 to top 1 in just over a year. These games had staying power at their launches.
 
 
Is anyone even surprised ?
 
 

 And one more time. Trying to apply Xfire numbers outside of Xfire users is absurd. When you have actual numbers come back and we'll talk about it. Until then you're just making things up.

"Strong and bitter words indicate a weak cause" ~Victor Hugo

  superniceguy

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/17/07
Posts: 2251

NGE, LOTRO, STO, KOTOR, Lego Star Wars > NGE 2 (SWTOR). SWG>ALL. Above hopefully subject to change.

2/15/12 6:54:53 AM#957
Originally posted by zymurgeist
Originally posted by Kimmyboy
SW TOR's stats are dramatic.
 
Highest point in activity: 81K in the launching weeks.
Lowest point in activity: today at 25K.
 
Highest point of players: 11.6K in the launching weeks.
Lowest point of players: 5.8K today.
 
That's a loss of 70% in activity and exactly 50% loss in player numbers in 7 weeks (!).
 
 
Since its launching week, SW TOR added a huge bunch of new people due to more sales (round 500K extra copies were sold). All these new players had zero influence on these drops
 
The retention is worse than WAR. Incredible but true as WAR still had a 40% retention of Xfire players after 4 months.
 
Successful games grew in activity over several years. The latest example was League of Legends which grew from top 10 to top 1 in just over a year. These games had staying power at their launches.
 
 
Is anyone even surprised ?
 
 

 And one more time. Trying to apply Xfire numbers outside of Xfire users is absurd. When you have actual numbers come back and we'll talk about it. Until then you're just making things up.

The actual numbers will be more, but It will still give the same loss of activity % even if everyone used it. It could even be worse if more Xfire users play SWTOR than other games

  Shivam

Novice Member

Joined: 5/02/10
Posts: 480

2/15/12 6:59:43 AM#958
Originally posted by superniceguy
Originally posted by zymurgeist
Originally posted by Kimmyboy
SW TOR's stats are dramatic.
 
Highest point in activity: 81K in the launching weeks.
Lowest point in activity: today at 25K.
 
Highest point of players: 11.6K in the launching weeks.
Lowest point of players: 5.8K today.
 
That's a loss of 70% in activity and exactly 50% loss in player numbers in 7 weeks (!).
 
 
Since its launching week, SW TOR added a huge bunch of new people due to more sales (round 500K extra copies were sold). All these new players had zero influence on these drops
 
The retention is worse than WAR. Incredible but true as WAR still had a 40% retention of Xfire players after 4 months.
 
Successful games grew in activity over several years. The latest example was League of Legends which grew from top 10 to top 1 in just over a year. These games had staying power at their launches.
 
 
Is anyone even surprised ?
 
 

 And one more time. Trying to apply Xfire numbers outside of Xfire users is absurd. When you have actual numbers come back and we'll talk about it. Until then you're just making things up.

The actual numbers will be more, but It will still give the same loss of activity % even if everyone used it. It could even be worse if more Xfire users play SWTOR than other games

No one  knows that   because no one knows actual numbers and retention rates. You are still making stuff up.                                                      

You must not lose faith in humanity. Humanity is an ocean; if a few drops of the ocean are dirty, the ocean does not become dirty -- Mahatma Gandhi

  superniceguy

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/17/07
Posts: 2251

NGE, LOTRO, STO, KOTOR, Lego Star Wars > NGE 2 (SWTOR). SWG>ALL. Above hopefully subject to change.

2/15/12 7:08:22 AM#959
Originally posted by Shivam
Originally posted by superniceguy
Originally posted by zymurgeist
Originally posted by Kimmyboy
SW TOR's stats are dramatic.
 
Highest point in activity: 81K in the launching weeks.
Lowest point in activity: today at 25K.
 
Highest point of players: 11.6K in the launching weeks.
Lowest point of players: 5.8K today.
 
That's a loss of 70% in activity and exactly 50% loss in player numbers in 7 weeks (!).
 
 
Since its launching week, SW TOR added a huge bunch of new people due to more sales (round 500K extra copies were sold). All these new players had zero influence on these drops
 
The retention is worse than WAR. Incredible but true as WAR still had a 40% retention of Xfire players after 4 months.
 
Successful games grew in activity over several years. The latest example was League of Legends which grew from top 10 to top 1 in just over a year. These games had staying power at their launches.
 
 
Is anyone even surprised ?
 
 

 And one more time. Trying to apply Xfire numbers outside of Xfire users is absurd. When you have actual numbers come back and we'll talk about it. Until then you're just making things up.

The actual numbers will be more, but It will still give the same loss of activity % even if everyone used it. It could even be worse if more Xfire users play SWTOR than other games

No one  knows that   because no one knows actual numbers and retention rates. You are still making stuff up.                                                      


Only because you do not want to beleive it. STO is a game that shows it is is doing good since Jan 17 when goes F2P. It works OK for other games but not SWTOR right?

SWTOR servers are dropping, Full to Very Heavy, Very Heavy to Heavy, Heavy to Standard, Standard to Light - each day, no rise or static activity for ages

STOs servers are getting full, with more and more instances showing up, and being stuck in a queue to log into the game out of 1000-2000 players.

The stats may not be accurate but are an excellent guide

  Blackbrrd

Novice Member

Joined: 2/24/09
Posts: 812

2/15/12 7:15:44 AM#960
Originally posted by Shivam
Originally posted by superniceguy
Originally posted by zymurgeist
Originally posted by Kimmyboy
SW TOR's stats are dramatic.
 
Highest point in activity: 81K in the launching weeks.
Lowest point in activity: today at 25K.
 
Highest point of players: 11.6K in the launching weeks.
Lowest point of players: 5.8K today.
 
That's a loss of 70% in activity and exactly 50% loss in player numbers in 7 weeks (!).
 
 
Since its launching week, SW TOR added a huge bunch of new people due to more sales (round 500K extra copies were sold). All these new players had zero influence on these drops
 
The retention is worse than WAR. Incredible but true as WAR still had a 40% retention of Xfire players after 4 months.
 
Successful games grew in activity over several years. The latest example was League of Legends which grew from top 10 to top 1 in just over a year. These games had staying power at their launches.
 
 
Is anyone even surprised ?
 
 

 And one more time. Trying to apply Xfire numbers outside of Xfire users is absurd. When you have actual numbers come back and we'll talk about it. Until then you're just making things up.

The actual numbers will be more, but It will still give the same loss of activity % even if everyone used it. It could even be worse if more Xfire users play SWTOR than other games

No one  knows that   because no one knows actual numbers and retention rates. You are still making stuff up.                                                      

He is extrapolating, although I think he is wrong regarding the retention rate.

I have recorded the amount of xfire-players and have for January 17. 10336 players and 6475 for February 14. (it's the same week day). It's a reduction of 38%. January 17. is long enough from launch date to not have too inflated numbers and at the same time, no subscriptions had run out.

If I take 2 million players as a starting point, we have 1,24 million active players now. The number of subscribers is probably higher, it's probably not before after 19th of february the next bunch of unsubscribes start. Personally, I think well over one million players is really really good and the retention rate if not the best is very good still.

The are several assumptions made here, for instance that the xfire-players are representative for SWTOR. It was pretty accurate for a Age of Conan, and 10.000 players is a very sizeable sample.

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