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2/14/12 3:04:31 PM#41
TSW - Bugs and incomplete content will have players raging and from there it will be an uphill strugle for Funcom. It wont be as bad as AoC, but still a rather bad launch. SWTOR - Steady decline in subs till the first ex-pack comes out, then everybody re-subs for a month or two. GW2 - 2 mill sales at launch, 3 mill first year. Will be seen as the first game to truly evolve the mmo-genre in many years. A lot of hardcore mmo-players will write the game off as being too lite, too easy and designed for casual players. Perhaps they'll stay around for WvW, we'll see. The game will fail to take off as an e-sport to the extent Arenanet hope. Tera - Will fail to make an impact with subs below 200k and go f2p. Archeage - Nowhere to be seen, but youtube. |
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2/14/12 3:09:55 PM#42
2012?
-Pete Townsend |
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2/14/12 3:11:33 PM#43
WoW will keep being WoW although with a few less subs around 8 million TSW will have around 500k subs Tera will have around 300k subs SWTOR will have around 700k subs GW2 will sell 3 million copies All of these at the end of 2012. |
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2/14/12 3:38:18 PM#44
GW2 will inspire absolutely legendary forum wars as nobody is quite sure whether it is a success or not. Haters will swear blind that nobody who bought it actually enjoys it and still plays. Fanbois will swear blind that it has the greatest satisfaction and retention ever. Lack of a subscription model ensures that neither side can be proved correct. Pass the popcorn.
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2/14/12 4:10:04 PM#45
Originally posted by darker70
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2/14/12 4:51:57 PM#46
SWTOR Will change the face of mmo forever and will be looked upon as the biggest fail ever and developper will now stop (hopefully) making copy/past of the teampark trend we get served since Everquest and World of warcraft, up to 200 millions fail will maybe bring back creativity. After a lot of patch the game finaly become a niche for hardcore SW fan and the last supporter of the thempark mmo as we know it since eq, wow.
TSW Well made and loved by their creator but at the same time a very unusual game that won't please that much people even tho it will be a high quality produce, will still get a particulary loyal fan base and become a niche for years to come, overall the game do well and sustain on it's own.
TERA Will do initialy well and fall flat after some months, overshadowed by others product, dev will adapt and the game become a F2P and a very well working one at that as well as a refuge for Lineage 2
GW2 Good game, show people that u can have fun with something different and not hardcore, people will learn to relax and enjoy a game without all the work we are used to in regular mmo, will of course not please some self proclamed hardcore who will get back to waiting for the holy graal again.
WOW Less player base and not being the game everyone look upon finaly after so many years will do the game wonderfull, wow get a little closer back to his root, is more fun than ever, its not giant we used to know and its nice like that
D3 Will do better than everyone tough, will be a refuge for a lot of holy graal of mmo seeker and a home for people bored with the mmo genre, we get back to the roots of fun, every player even on hardcore mmo will come and pass some times on D3 to relax and have some quick fun.
My guess for this year The fail of SWTOR would be god send for the little mmo world and probably the end of the trend we are used to since eq and wow, i call a year of diversity, a year of quality and finaly some originality and a breath of fresh air. It will also be the year of the niche with a lot of quality title appealing to a whole lot of different kind of people, everyone will be happy, well all but sadly the sandbox lover, dreaming of a very distant archeage, maybe some hope of announcement for a eastern version by the end of the year hopefully. Wow lover will still have wow even more fun than before and swtor as an added bonus, lineage 2 fan and more hardcore pvp people will have tera, and GW 2 will finaly fit a missing hole in the mmo genre today and appeal the mass, TSW will be a niche dream for a lot of people who think different. Money wise i still say it will be Blizzard year yet again, BNET will become a more and more used interface and the blizzard hub of success, with D3, a wow expansion and a SC2 expansion, Bnet will win the year :) |
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2/14/12 6:10:57 PM#47
2012 should be a banner year for MMO's. There are more varied and interesting well-funded MMO's coming out in a single 12 month span than have ever come before. 2 or more of these games are going to deliver. Here are the games listed in order of success.
1. Planetside 2- Releasing in end of 2012(or possibly early 2013) PS2 will come out of the gate modestly and then explode due to word of mouth. Once news of the game reaches the ears of the average FPS gamers they will descend upon the game to see what it offers. Many will instantly fall in love with the massive battles and loads of customization. The F2P League of Legends style payment model will make SOE boatloads of cash. By the end of 2013 PS2 will be one of the most widely played games in the world which will spawn a generation of MMOFPS clones. Most of which suck.
2. GW2- This is going to be a smash success but will surprisingly not be the biggest hit of 2012. 3-5 million box sales by Xmas with a slow but steady growth from there. Since its not P2P retention is mostly irrelevant. It wont be everything the hype suggests but it will still mostly deliver and be a great new experience which is sorely needed in the genre.
3. TSW- The Secret World will launch in surprisingly good shape but to modest numbers. The average MMO gamer wont know what to make of the modern day/sci-fi/horror setting and be initially turned off. Slowly people will get bored of other MMO's and give it a try and find it surprisingly fun and refreshing. The game grows slowly and at the end of 2012 has a healthy 500k subs. Because of the lack of competition in the moden day sci-fi genre TSW carves out a lucrative little corner of the MMO world and becomes an EVE like niche game which is quite profitable and recieves high acclaim.
4. SWTOR- The behemoth is the last of a generation of MMO's which has simply gone out of style in the themebox heavy era of the nextgen. Early 2012 is an absolute disaster for the game as subs drop dramactically after March's 1.2 patch which is still more of the same. Still, because of the Star Wars IP and Biowares name the game trudges along through a slew of big releases in 2012. By the summer of 2012 Bioware fires its current Lead Dev and hires someone with a better vision for the game. SWTOR goes in a different direction and moves to reinvent itself as a themebox which is the new rage in the genre. Space Combat and exploration becomes a primary focus as well as randomly generated Planets and planet content which is actually quite innovative. At the end of 2012 SWTOR is struggling with disapointing 400k subs but by the end of 2013 SWTOR resembles the game everyone was hoping it could be and has around 1 million subs again. Bioware learns from its mistakes with SWTOR and works on a Mass Effect MMO which greatly resembles SWTOR in its late 2013 format.
5. Dominus- This game from a small indie developer releases with barely a whimper. Without a great hype machine or even a moderately sized advertising campaign only the most informed and aware of MMO gamers are aware it was even released. It also doesnt help Dominus is the first MMO since SWTOR which uses the Hero Engine. Because of SWTOR's Hero engine problems many assume dominus is DOA (if they even knew of the game to begin with) ...........However....Dominus actually turns out to be a good game and the only true Sandbox/PvP game released in 2012. It doesnt take long for the sandbox crowd to catch onto Dominus and as word of mouth spreads the game finds a nice following of 250k.
6. TERA- Much like AION and every other Korean game since time began, TERA fails to find a following in the West. It survives through early 2013 but goes F2P and eventually closes servers by 2014 in North America.
2013 and Beyond- Archage releases in early 2013 and does better than TERA but not by much. EQnext releases in late 2013 and is a bit too last generation but still does well because there are fewer themeparks to compete with. It becomes the De facto Themepark until Titan releases in 2015. Titan- Releases in 2015 and goes gangbusters due to being well-made and having a massive following because its a Blizzard title.
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2/14/12 6:54:48 PM#48
Originally posted by BilboDoggins
I was over at their site for the first time a couple of weeks back... looks promising. Btw, Sanya Weathers, the original DAOC community manager is the community manager for Dominus. |
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2/14/12 6:58:45 PM#49
Originally posted by 77lolmac77 Someone does not know much about GW2 it seems....anyway...
GW2 will get about 2-3 Million Subs in the first 6 months and then stay at the top of the Food Chain for 5+ Years. That's wishful thinking on my part. :) TGIF...Thank God I'm Female "Those with the most Opinions tend to have the fewest Facts" |
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2/14/12 7:40:26 PM#50
Originally posted by darker70 Ouch, so what does that say about Bioware? I do like the guys who are Dominus, I'd been watching their videos when I go over and remember. They seem like nice guys. If they can make HeroEngine work a lot better then Bioware, then I'll give it a try.
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2/14/12 7:43:39 PM#51
Originally posted by Jessina Its also rediculous. GW2 is B2P and does not have subs. |
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2/14/12 7:47:28 PM#52
The GW2 naysayers will end up shoving both feet in their mouth, and will likely go on to sell around 3.5-4m copies in 2012, and even more in 2013 as word of mouth spreads. ToR will even out at around 250k subs. Tera will flop in the west. TSW will go unnoticed by many and as a result will never see much success.
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2/14/12 7:54:28 PM#53
2012 will be like 2011. Some major titles, but none will live up to the expectations. The interesting PC MMOs will be delayed until 2013. Some Single Player RPG for PC and Console will steal the show once again this year (which one remains to be seen). ------ |
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2/14/12 7:55:42 PM#54
Originally posted by AcmeGamer The Dominus people have said the exact same thing about SWTOR as The Repopulation team. They said Bioware took the Hero Engine and tweaked it so much it barely resembles the Vanilla Hero Engine.
One of the reasons I'm really looking forward to beta testing Dominus is to see just how much of a difference there is between the two. If Dominus is technically sound it is going to make Bioware look really really incompetant. |
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2/14/12 8:01:39 PM#55
GW2 will attract many but lose a lot of actives after the first month. People will realize its still a reskinned theme park.
Mortal online will increase sub numbers.
Wow will get an initial bump but then fall further.
Swtor will continue to lose subs but then increase when the next expansion is announced.
TSW will start better than expected but won't break any records.
Salem will start slow but have a dedicated following.
VG will go FTP.
AA will be popular but not as much as people expect. It will not be enuf sandbox for sandbox fans and too Grindy for themeparkers.
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2/14/12 8:20:40 PM#56
Originally posted by xDayx
As a B2P it doesnt need to maintain them, it just needs to bring them back with every expansion. Serious PvPers who arent just after shiny gear which makes them better than newbies will play GW2 (just like they still play GW1), even if its just on the side as a PvP fix. PvE players will probably lose interest after playing a few classes, since the carrot on a stick isnt as great as the themeparks. |
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darker70
 Apprentice Member
Joined: 10/21/08
A child of five would understand this. Send someone to fetch a child of five. |
2/14/12 8:23:52 PM#57
Originally posted by BilboDoggins Thanks guys i feel vindicated,well i'll wager Dominus and The Repopulation show more creativity in their Alpha/Beta's than Bioware do in the lifetime of SWTOR unless they do a Bethesda and actually start to make their product better.
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2/14/12 8:28:18 PM#58
(1) I think it'll be difficult to account for the number of subscribers but I think Guild Wars 2 will sell 1.8 million units worldwide. (2) SW:TOR will hold steady at about 800,000 active subscribers (3) Secret World will be lucky to get 300,000 Subscribers (4) Tera will also have about 300,000 subscribers (5) WoW will still be the most popular game but Mists of Panderan will have little to no effect on retaining subscribers. (6) We'll all be playing Diablo 3 |
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2/14/12 8:34:50 PM#59
I predict ZeniMax Online reveals what they are working on any month now AND announces a late 2012 release date. This MMO will be the big hit of 2012. |
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2/14/12 8:45:12 PM#60
"Tera online" will Rock the MMO Wrold! The End......
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