Originally posted by Onomas

Originally posted by Ecoces

only on MMORPG.com and with the "super SWTOR hater club" would 2 million copies sold NOT be a successful launch.

2 million copies of the game sold and 2 million active subscriptions (after the 30 days free) are two different things. Selling 2 million copies and only ending up with a mil or so subs does not make for a successful game. The launch was good, one of the best i took part in. But the game overall, will not keep those 2 mil people. And you can see all the TOR lovers keep using this as an example why their game is so awesome because they dont have anything else to use ;) And within a month or 2, they wont have that 1.7 mil subs either.

Considering that would put TOR at numbers surpassed only by WoW, I'd call that a pretty damn big success.

Originally posted by fadis

Everyone is talking about retention rates and how many "real" subscribers this game actually has...

 

I think the bigger question is why did it only sell 2 million copies in the first 6 weeks?  I don't care how that is spun by EA - that cannot be something they are pleased about.

 

This is an EA/Bioware game... supposed to be the next big thing.  To see sales drying up as fast as they did in January...

I think the real question is Why do you need to find more things about swtor to hate on it?  Or is hating on swtor the only big thing you have going on in your life?

Originally posted by sanosukex

Originally posted by Sovrath

 

general MMOers is a smaller group but they are also the group who pays and plays for years..  I don't agree when you say if you advertise to the masses you aren't going to convince them to play. It does exactly that, thats what marketing is all about thats why companies pay big bucks for this stuff, thats why sites like this one stay afloat and sites like IGN and gamespot. Advertising is what gets the idea of a game in peoples heads which in turns increases interest which in turns makes sales. All you need to sell something is good advertising. But having a famous IP is just the icing on the cake.

WOW is a whole other monster though because of the time it came out specifically. MMOs were a very small community back then and it was the first real themepark made for the masses.

Except if that was true, anything you threw money at as far as advertising would be a success. But it doesn't work that way.

Yes, marketing is about making something seem not only palatable but also something you just "have to have" or "have to be a part of".

But it's a two way street. People seeing that advertising have to not only be willing to be swayed but have to be the correct demographic that would consider taking part in that product.

So if you were to throw, say, WoW advertising dollars at Dark Fall you might get a few more people willing to try it out. But in no way, shape or form is Dark Fall going to start heading towards millions of players.

There are niche products in all genres as well as break out products that get the masses participating. ADvertise as much as you want you are not going to get the masses liking niche products. You might get some who are genuinely curious but Advertising can only do so much.

Originally posted by fadis

Everyone is talking about retention rates and how many "real" subscribers this game actually has...

 

I think the bigger question is why did it only sell 2 million copies in the first 6 weeks?  I don't care how that is spun by EA - that cannot be something they are pleased about.

 

This is an EA/Bioware game... supposed to be the next big thing.  To see sales drying up as fast as they did in January...

Comparing the initial sales to anything else in the MMO industry they surpased the norm by about a million sales. Look at the sales numbers for AOC, WAR and STO, large IP products mind you, and you'll see just how successful TOR was.

Originally posted by Ecoces

Originally posted by Onomas

Originally posted by Ecoces

only on MMORPG.com and with the "super SWTOR hater club" would 2 million copies sold NOT be a successful launch.

2 million copies of the game sold and 2 million active subscriptions (after the 30 days free) are two different things. Selling 2 million copies and only ending up with a mil or so subs does not make for a successful game. The launch was good, one of the best i took part in. But the game overall, will not keep those 2 mil people. And you can see all the TOR lovers keep using this as an example why their game is so awesome because they dont have anything else to use ;) And within a month or 2, they wont have that 1.7 mil subs either.

2 million copies sold is successful. if they retain 1 million it would be the second highest populated MMO in the west. I know those lacking common sense think a new MMO should get 10 million boxes sold and retain ALL 10 million of those subscribers = FAILURE.

but thats not how this genre works.

50% lose is no successful game. It will be the largest lose in the quickest time of any mmo ever that i can remember. It shows how bad this game is. The 1.7 million subs BW/EA was so proud of also included the free 30 days in it. So once those run out........

And its funny you mention genre, its called an industry not genre ;) Genre would be like sci-fi, fantasy, etc. A style, form, etc. And on that subject, this game lacks everything to be an epic mmorpg. This game is like playing KOTOR3 on your pc and paying 15 a month for it. How long do you think these people will continue to pay that much money for a console rpg? When real mmorpgs are coming out very soon ;)

Originally posted by Sovrath

Originally posted by sanosukex

Originally posted by Sovrath

 

general MMOers is a smaller group but they are also the group who pays and plays for years..  I don't agree when you say if you advertise to the masses you aren't going to convince them to play. It does exactly that, thats what marketing is all about thats why companies pay big bucks for this stuff, thats why sites like this one stay afloat and sites like IGN and gamespot. Advertising is what gets the idea of a game in peoples heads which in turns increases interest which in turns makes sales. All you need to sell something is good advertising. But having a famous IP is just the icing on the cake.

WOW is a whole other monster though because of the time it came out specifically. MMOs were a very small community back then and it was the first real themepark made for the masses.

Except if that was true, anything you threw money at as far as advertising would be a success. But it doesn't work that way.

Yes, marketing is about making something seem not only palatable but also something you just "have to have" or "have to be a part of".

But it's a two way street. People seeing that advertising have to not only be willing to be swayed but have to be the correct demographic that would consider taking part in that product.

So if you were to throw, say, WoW advertising dollars at Dark Fall you might get a few more people willing to try it out. But in no way, shape or form is Dark Fall going to start heading towards millions of players.

There are niche products in all genres as well as break out products that get the masses participating. ADvertise as much as you want you are not going to get the masses liking niche products. You might get some who are genuinely curious but Advertising can only do so much.

this is my point and why I feel in the next 3-6 months this game will decline heavily.. once all those who bought into the hype and advertising find how shallow the game really is they will unsubscribe.. 

Advertising is what sells boxes, the game itself is what sells subscriptions

Originally posted by sanosukex

Originally posted by Ecoces

2 million copies of the game sold and 2 million active subscriptions (after the 30 days free) are two different things. Selling 2 million copies and only ending up with a mil or so subs does not make for a successful game. The launch was good, one of the best i took part in. But the game overall, will not keep those 2 mil people. And you can see all the TOR lovers keep using this as an example why their game is so awesome because they dont have anything else to use ;) And within a month or 2, they wont have that 1.7 mil subs either.

2 million copies sold is successful. if they retain 1 million it would be the second highest populated MMO in the west. I know those lacking common sense think a new MMO should get 10 million boxes sold and retain ALL 10 million of those subscribers = FAILURE.

but thats not how this genre works.

so in your example warhammer online was a very successfull game since it sold plenty of copies to make up for what it cost to make.

Stating the success of an MMO based solely on box sales is pretty much as worthless as using XFire stats to rate overall populations.

It depends 100% on the business model. Guild Wars is 100% box sales and xpack game. No subs and they are wildly successful.

Warhammer Online could be very successful based on box sales alone or it could be barely profitable. It depends on what they based the budget on.

Some companies might need higher retention rates than others. If SWTOR expects to make dev costs back in X time and beat that goal, then yes, they are successful.

On the flip side, 2mm copies sold without a high enough retention rate may not be successful for SWTOR. You just have to wait for a press release or have inside knowledge.

Originally posted by sanosukex

 

this is my point and why I feel in the next 3-6 months this game will decline heavily.. once all those who bought into the hype and advertising find how shallow the game really is they will unsubscribe.. 

Advertising is what sells boxes, the game itself is what sells subscriptions

I actually would temper that.

"yes" the game will lose subs because people who wanted something different are just not going to stick around. But those people who are casual "non-gamers" who just like playing games here won't necessarily be so quick to unsubscribe. And there are mmo players who are actually enjoying the game for what it is.

I would be surprised if the game grew to be a juggernaut.

Originally posted by sanosukex

Originally posted by Sovrath

Originally posted by sanosukex

Originally posted by Sovrath

 

general MMOers is a smaller group but they are also the group who pays and plays for years..  I don't agree when you say if you advertise to the masses you aren't going to convince them to play. It does exactly that, thats what marketing is all about thats why companies pay big bucks for this stuff, thats why sites like this one stay afloat and sites like IGN and gamespot. Advertising is what gets the idea of a game in peoples heads which in turns increases interest which in turns makes sales. All you need to sell something is good advertising. But having a famous IP is just the icing on the cake.

WOW is a whole other monster though because of the time it came out specifically. MMOs were a very small community back then and it was the first real themepark made for the masses.

Except if that was true, anything you threw money at as far as advertising would be a success. But it doesn't work that way.

Yes, marketing is about making something seem not only palatable but also something you just "have to have" or "have to be a part of".

But it's a two way street. People seeing that advertising have to not only be willing to be swayed but have to be the correct demographic that would consider taking part in that product.

So if you were to throw, say, WoW advertising dollars at Dark Fall you might get a few more people willing to try it out. But in no way, shape or form is Dark Fall going to start heading towards millions of players.

There are niche products in all genres as well as break out products that get the masses participating. ADvertise as much as you want you are not going to get the masses liking niche products. You might get some who are genuinely curious but Advertising can only do so much.

this is my point and why I feel in the next 3-6 months this game will decline heavily.. once all those who bought into the hype and advertising find how shallow the game really is they will unsubscribe.. 

Advertising is what sells boxes, the game itself is what sells subscriptions

 You're assuming no one else will buy the game. That is a mistake. WoW was wildly successful not just because of suscriber retention but because even to this day new sales continue. SWTOR will have a more modest success but the real question is will new sales continue?

Originally posted by Sovrath

Originally posted by sanosukex

 

this is my point and why I feel in the next 3-6 months this game will decline heavily.. once all those who bought into the hype and advertising find how shallow the game really is they will unsubscribe.. 

Advertising is what sells boxes, the game itself is what sells subscriptions

I actually would temper that.

"yes" the game will lose subs because people who wanted something different are just not going to stick around. But those people who are casual "non-gamers" who just like playing games here won't necessarily be so quick to unsubscribe. And there are mmo players who are actually enjoying the game for what it is.

I would be surprised if the game grew to be a juggernaut.

i would not only be suprised I would loose all faith in the gaming community if this game became a juggernaut. I'm sure it will go the route of rift and have a decent but not great sized population for awhile.. but within the next 6 months we have 3 and depending on scheduling 4 big releases coming to the MMO world. At release swtor didn't any "new" compitition but this year it will. I really don't feel the core game design is strong enough to keep even a good amount of players after all these new games are released.

Originally posted by Valua

Originally posted by ShakyMo

GW2 will take people from SWTOR

Guild Wars 2 is Buy to Play. Like Guild Wars 1 players they will buy it and then continue to sub to another game.

 

Guild Wars 2 will only be competition to Guild Wars 1, and very little competition to anyone else. Even though it might sell more boxes than every other game.

 

Star Wars doesn't have much to worry about when it comes to GW2 other than maybe people not subscribing because they think The Old Republic is unplayable after playing GW2. Which I doubt will be the case. 

 

When GW2 releases The Old Republic will have had many patches and changes, and it will probably be considered a great game.

I happen to think this same way agout b2p and p2p. But..... we have to take into consideration, depending on GW2 success things can get ugly for subscription based games. It is a possibility and a reality. If GW2 becomes the most successful mmorpg second to WoW (even if it becomes more popular that WoW)  then people might start to wonder why are they wasting money on subscription based games when GW2 is the best thing ever happened with no monthly fee?

Things can happen and we have to see all the possibilities. If a B2P mmo becomes the next big thing, subscriptions can have a sad future (WoW included).

I clicked on this thread expecting an enlightned, insightful "bigger question"...you know, something really inspired...and instead I got the same stupid argument.

Originally posted by NightCloak

Originally posted by sanosukex

Originally posted by Ecoces

2 million copies of the game sold and 2 million active subscriptions (after the 30 days free) are two different things. Selling 2 million copies and only ending up with a mil or so subs does not make for a successful game. The launch was good, one of the best i took part in. But the game overall, will not keep those 2 mil people. And you can see all the TOR lovers keep using this as an example why their game is so awesome because they dont have anything else to use ;) And within a month or 2, they wont have that 1.7 mil subs either.

2 million copies sold is successful. if they retain 1 million it would be the second highest populated MMO in the west. I know those lacking common sense think a new MMO should get 10 million boxes sold and retain ALL 10 million of those subscribers = FAILURE.

but thats not how this genre works.

so in your example warhammer online was a very successfull game since it sold plenty of copies to make up for what it cost to make.

Stating the success of an MMO based solely on box sales is pretty much as worthless as using XFire stats to rate overall populations.

 

SWG sold 1 mil copies by 2005, that was huge for back in those days, with the exception of WOW but they didnt hit their 10mil mark until 2011. WAR only sold about 1.5 mil copies roughly. EQ sold 2.5 mil copies since launch including expansions and only had about 450k subs. Rift even sold 1 mil copies eventualy. But most these games have small player bases now or are gone. As stated above sopies mean nothing, subs are the real money makers.

Those numbers above are just a quick look on google*

Originally posted by sanosukex

this is my point and why I feel in the next 3-6 months this game will decline heavily.. once all those who bought into the hype and advertising find how shallow the game really is they will unsubscribe.. 

Advertising is what sells boxes, the game itself is what sells subscriptions

What I would love to know is the reason for why they cancel. Because right now there are three things that seem to be the main driving force for those disenfranchised at this time:

1. endgame

2. PvP

3.faction/server population issues

Those three things are becoming more and more prevalent. It will be interesting to see how those are handled. I would especially love to see how many related it to number three because I personally believe this is a much bigger issue and a growing one that some refuse to acknowledge.

Originally posted by Wickedjelly

Originally posted by sanosukex

this is my point and why I feel in the next 3-6 months this game will decline heavily.. once all those who bought into the hype and advertising find how shallow the game really is they will unsubscribe.. 

Advertising is what sells boxes, the game itself is what sells subscriptions

What I would love to know is the reason for why they cancel. Because right now there are three things that seem to be the main driving force for those disenfranchised at this time:

1. endgame

2. PvP

3.faction/server population issues

Those three things are becoming more and more prevalent. It will be interesting to see how those are handled. I would especially love to see how many related it to number three because I personally believe this is a much bigger issue and a growing one that some refuse to acknowledge.

to me the main issue was the very stale and shallow classes/ horribly generic talent trees. Just this kept me from even getting to level 50. Oh and the heavily heavily instanced/phased zones

Originally posted by sanosukex

Originally posted by BarCrow

Originally posted by Valua

Originally posted by sanosukex

with the MMO market as large as it is today and with how long its been since the last AAA title and not to mention the super team of bioware + star wars I can't see how anyone would think this game wouldn't sell well off the get go.. does it make it a good game? or a rousing success? i don't think so if it can maintain 1 mill+ subs over the course of a year i'd say its a sure fire hit but i highly doubt it will keep anywhere close to that in a years time.

You don't think The Old Republic will keep close to 1 million subscribers? I can't even begin to imagine how you came to that conclusion.

 

I predict that after a year The Old Republic will have 1million to 2million active subscribers, easy.

 

I don't know how people are preicting lower than 1million? Let alone you predicting "anywhere close" to 1million.

 

With patches, more advertising, free trials and cheaper boxes this game will continue to thrieve for the next year atleast easily.

 

 

Anything could happen..but I see this as a very probable future for SWTOR as well. Especially as they do additional fixes...patches..polish and add more content...making it attractive to more people and hopefully drawing back some disgruntled defectors.lol.

and by then several new AAA mmo's will be released or just about to be released... like wow before it SWTOR came out at a prestine time when no other MMOs had been released recently. Only Rift was released in the same year and that was way back in March. Not to mention it was released right near christmas. You really think both these things are coincidence? I bet you the developers would of prefered to polish the game and work on a summer 2012 release but with everything in the works for then I'm sure the corporate guys pushed for the christmas 2011 release.. it's all about the money..

No doubt that is why they released...and yes..rushed the game for a December release. I still think it was fairly smooth from my experiences (compared to many other mmo releases except RIFT). I also realize its bugs and failures but enjoy the game none-the -less. There is definitely competition heading our way (and will be sampling those as well..Wildstar oddly intrigues me tho I usually dislike the degree of stylization it seems to incorporate..and Archage if we ever see that in the west)....but I still think SWTOR can pull-off a great playerbase as they continue to refine their rushed product. I really can't blame bioware too much and hatelessly blame EA mostly for the too-early release. I also blame the many fans screaming for a release date so they could get their grubby mitts on a copy...myself included..lol.

Originally posted by Wickedjelly

What I would love to know is the reason for why they cancel. Because right now there are three things that seem to be the main driving force for those disenfranchised at this time:

1. endgame

2. PvP

3.faction/server population issues

Those three things are becoming more and more prevalent. It will be interesting to see how those are handled. I would especially love to see how many related it to number three because I personally believe this is a much bigger issue and a growing one that some refuse to acknowledge.

1. and 3. were the main reasons my roommate stopped playing and gave me his copy to play for the rest of his free month. He played through 2-3 characters to 50(or at least one of them) in a couple weeks. Joined a guild. The guild feel apart from people quitting the game. He's not a PVPer.

After that there is absolutely nothing to do in the game.

Originally posted by TheeazD

 

LoTRO was, and still is, a massive success.

in NA or EU? because they are closing Asian servers, theres a post here somewhere with the news link

Originally posted by fadis

Everyone is talking about retention rates and how many "real" subscribers this game actually has...

 

I think the bigger question is why did it only sell 2 million copies in the first 6 weeks?  I don't care how that is spun by EA - that cannot be something they are pleased about.

 

This is an EA/Bioware game... supposed to be the next big thing.  To see sales drying up as fast as they did in January...

2 million is awesome for just the US/EU in such a short amount of time.  If it grows it will be by word of mouth and advertisemtns, just as WOW did.

Blizzard clearly has a lot of fans that want finished products before leaving WOW.  They also made a bold move and offered D3 free with a years subscription.