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Star Wars: The Old Republic

Star Wars: The Old Republic 

General Discussion  » More Than 1.7 Million Active Subscribers 2/1/12 [EA Conf Call Discussion Thread]

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732 posts found
  zymurgeist

Hard Core Member

Joined: 12/24/04
Posts: 5212

2/03/12 7:47:13 PM#661
Originally posted by I_Return
Originally posted by zymurgeist
Originally posted by I_Return
Originally posted by zymurgeist
Originally posted by MartinZ
Originally posted by Dredphyre
Originally posted by I_Return
Originally posted by I_Return
19.26  -0.31 (-1.56%)
 
So much for that theory .....
19.24 -0.33 (-1.66%) closing. SWTOR continues to drag the stock down.

Have to quote yourself because nobody pays attention to your silly presumptions?

 

How about EA stock soaring a few days ago ( up 6%) after the earnings report and conference call regarding SWTOR? 

EA's stock is down 20% in the past three months. Around 10% since SWTOR was release. And back down another 1.66% today on a 11 year record high for the NASDAQ.

EA was outperforming the NASDAQ this year until almost exactly when SWTOR was released where it suddenly dropped like mad.

Even worse EA warned in their conference call that their revenue and profits and revenue for this coming quarter are going to be below expectations.

Looks like EA knows this game is dying rapidly and won't be the WoW killer they spent all this money hoping to be.

 

 

 EA stock is fine, EA profits are fine, SWTOR is fine. As usuall dumb asses ran the stock up in anticipation of a new MMO launch and it corrected. It will slowly creep back up in the next few months.  It Happens Every Time. It did the same thing for Warhammer only it made a bigger swing down.

Teala SWTOR currently has in excess or 1.7 million subscribers. It probably does not have an 85% retention rate. As usual people are confabulating numbers to mean things they don't.

tyvm for the laugh. SWTOR is the thorn in EA stocks side . All of the other products EA published last year is what is stabalizing the slower then expected downward spiral of the current stock quotes.

 Yeah it'll probably drop like a rock the way AoC caused Funcom to go out of business in a month, no three months, no six months, no a year, Uh wait a minute....... 

I sold my EA stock three days before launch. I might buy some back after the dilittantes are done with their panic attack. Hard to say. I don't normally hold it but Blizzard is possibly about to take a short steep slide. We shall see.

you seem to be looking at this the wrong way. No one has said anything about a comapny going out of business. What I am looking at is the declining stock for the past three months, with a quartly report cutting the debit by 1/3  , from positive growth "outside" of SWTOR.

 

People are trying to relay that because the stock went up 6% in one day it was a direct reflection of SWTOR success, which is simply not true. The fact is BF3 , and other games had a great sales.

 

The factt hat SWTOR is not the WoW killer is scaring investors off , and we will see a decline in the stock over the next 3 months to 6 months until something better is released and projected to ship over 5-10million boxes.

 The fact that SWTOR isn't the WoW killer didn't scare anyone off. The day traders just went somewhere else to ride the next  hype bubble. 6% in one day means about as much as the drop after launch. Nothing. The AoC thing is just another example of people making predictions of catasrophe based on little or no information. And being inevitably wrong. The stock is fine, profits are fine, the game is fine. There are no large gains or losses on the horizon.

"Strong and bitter words indicate a weak cause" ~Victor Hugo

  zakiyawow

Novice Member

Joined: 2/28/10
Posts: 631

2/03/12 8:00:36 PM#662
Originally posted by zymurgeist
 

 The fact that SWTOR isn't the WoW killer didn't scare anyone off. The day traders just went somewhere else to ride the next  hype bubble. 6% in one day means about as much as the drop after launch. Nothing. The AoC thing is just another example of people making predictions of catasrophe based on little or no information. And being inevitably wrong. The stock is fine, profits are fine, the game is fine. There are no large gains or losses on the horizon.

The funny thing is: EA stock dropped and SOME PEOPLE ( you know who you are ) was jumping up and down about how SWTOR is causing the stock to drop. Now the stock goes up, those SAME PEOPLE ( again, you know who you are ) now turns around and say it is not SWTOR causing it to go up....really  ?? Flip-flop much ?

 

To Zymurgeist

I am quoting you just because I want to continue this context. I don't think you were one those the guys I am mentioned above.

 

  dubyahite

Novice Member

Joined: 1/17/11
Posts: 2506

2/03/12 8:33:47 PM#663
I have to post here because the post count is at 666 and it's freaking me out!


I don't know (or care) much about stocks and all that.

Can someone explain to a layman like myself how the EA stock is affected directly by SWTOR, and how everyone is so sure that the only thing causing it to drop is this game?

Maybe I'm just dumb, but it would seem that EA is a huge company with lots of titles and that the situation is more complex than you make it seem.

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  User Deleted
2/03/12 8:39:21 PM#664

They can't lie to their investors like it or not. Hell they can't even really mislead their investors. It's a very grey area and it doesn't lean in a companies favor.  U.S. politicians love publicly roasting company ceo's and exe's that do such. They can't say we retained most of our subs to investors, then come to find out they only retained a little over half.  

If the company keeps holding those subs after a few months who knows. The people who say "they lied" are just  in denial.

  sanosukex

Advanced Member

Joined: 4/08/05
Posts: 1857

2/03/12 8:44:53 PM#665
Originally posted by dubyahite
I have to post here because the post count is at 666 and it's freaking me out!


I don't know (or care) much about stocks and all that.

Can someone explain to a layman like myself how the EA stock is affected directly by SWTOR, and how everyone is so sure that the only thing causing it to drop is this game?

Maybe I'm just dumb, but it would seem that EA is a huge company with lots of titles and that the situation is more complex than you make it seem.

stocks are irrelevant.. box sales irrelevant... what peopel are claiming as the number of "active" players irrelevant. What IS relevant? how many people are actually playing the damn game when you are. How many people are around in your guild or your friends or just around period to group with to do warzones with. Whole point of playing an MMO is to play with lots of other people. For me my server was declining I was seeing less and less people week after week. The starter zones were ghost towns. It was getting more and more difficult to find groups for flashpoints. As imperial i was doing nothing but huttball over and over and over... To me all this says a million times more than any of those numbers you can throw at me.. if your server is one of the still thriving ones than good for you go any play but not all of us are so lucky to be in one of those handfull of servers that still maintain heavy at peak hours...

http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/339443/Video-FollowUp-Guide-For-Enhancing-Graphics-and-Performance-in-SWTORSorry-still-Nvidia-Only.html

  Dren_Utogi

Advanced Member

Joined: 8/21/10
Posts: 1479

2/03/12 9:02:29 PM#666
Originally posted by zymurgeist
Originally posted by I_Return
Originally posted by zymurgeist
Originally posted by I_Return
Originally posted by zymurgeist
Originally posted by MartinZ
Originally posted by Dredphyre
Originally posted by I_Return
Originally posted by I_Return
19.26  -0.31 (-1.56%)
 
So much for that theory .....
19.24 -0.33 (-1.66%) closing. SWTOR continues to drag the stock down.

Have to quote yourself because nobody pays attention to your silly presumptions?

 

How about EA stock soaring a few days ago ( up 6%) after the earnings report and conference call regarding SWTOR? 

EA's stock is down 20% in the past three months. Around 10% since SWTOR was release. And back down another 1.66% today on a 11 year record high for the NASDAQ.

EA was outperforming the NASDAQ this year until almost exactly when SWTOR was released where it suddenly dropped like mad.

Even worse EA warned in their conference call that their revenue and profits and revenue for this coming quarter are going to be below expectations.

Looks like EA knows this game is dying rapidly and won't be the WoW killer they spent all this money hoping to be.

 

 

 EA stock is fine, EA profits are fine, SWTOR is fine. As usuall dumb asses ran the stock up in anticipation of a new MMO launch and it corrected. It will slowly creep back up in the next few months.  It Happens Every Time. It did the same thing for Warhammer only it made a bigger swing down.

Teala SWTOR currently has in excess or 1.7 million subscribers. It probably does not have an 85% retention rate. As usual people are confabulating numbers to mean things they don't.

tyvm for the laugh. SWTOR is the thorn in EA stocks side . All of the other products EA published last year is what is stabalizing the slower then expected downward spiral of the current stock quotes.

 Yeah it'll probably drop like a rock the way AoC caused Funcom to go out of business in a month, no three months, no six months, no a year, Uh wait a minute....... 

I sold my EA stock three days before launch. I might buy some back after the dilittantes are done with their panic attack. Hard to say. I don't normally hold it but Blizzard is possibly about to take a short steep slide. We shall see.

you seem to be looking at this the wrong way. No one has said anything about a comapny going out of business. What I am looking at is the declining stock for the past three months, with a quartly report cutting the debit by 1/3  , from positive growth "outside" of SWTOR.

 

People are trying to relay that because the stock went up 6% in one day it was a direct reflection of SWTOR success, which is simply not true. The fact is BF3 , and other games had a great sales.

 

The factt hat SWTOR is not the WoW killer is scaring investors off , and we will see a decline in the stock over the next 3 months to 6 months until something better is released and projected to ship over 5-10million boxes.

 The fact that SWTOR isn't the WoW killer didn't scare anyone off. The day traders just went somewhere else to ride the next  hype bubble. 6% in one day means about as much as the drop after launch. Nothing. The AoC thing is just another example of people making predictions of catasrophe based on little or no information. And being inevitably wrong. The stock is fine, profits are fine, the game is fine. There are no large gains or losses on the horizon.


Before the earnings report :

http://www.vg247.com/2012/01/20/ea-stock-drops-3-after-analyst-expresses-doubts-on-swtor/

After Earnning report :

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120201-721135.html

 

Lets keep this in mind. How can a 4th quarter released game... Lift 3rd quarter ?

 It is called Panic fluff .

reviews are !@#$ing stupid. Play what you love.

  Dredphyre

Novice Member

Joined: 9/11/10
Posts: 609

fanboi of truth

2/03/12 10:22:50 PM#667
Originally posted by zakiyawow
Originally posted by zymurgeist
 

 The fact that SWTOR isn't the WoW killer didn't scare anyone off. The day traders just went somewhere else to ride the next  hype bubble. 6% in one day means about as much as the drop after launch. Nothing. The AoC thing is just another example of people making predictions of catasrophe based on little or no information. And being inevitably wrong. The stock is fine, profits are fine, the game is fine. There are no large gains or losses on the horizon.

The funny thing is: EA stock dropped and SOME PEOPLE ( you know who you are ) was jumping up and down about how SWTOR is causing the stock to drop. Now the stock goes up, those SAME PEOPLE ( again, you know who you are ) now turns around and say it is not SWTOR causing it to go up....really  ?? Flip-flop much ?

 

To Zymurgeist

I am quoting you just because I want to continue this context. I don't think you were one those the guys I am mentioned above.

 

Yep...that was my point as well...the tortured logic these haters employ to justify their negative fantasy is amusing.

  wahchile

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/02/12
Posts: 4

2/03/12 11:48:32 PM#668
Originally posted by Teala

There is no way in hell they retained 85% of their playbase.  I'd bet mylife on that.   In fact I'd bet right - today as of now, this game has more like 1.2 million subs and has lost upwards of 750k since release.   That means they have seen 45% loss in players since the games release. 

Tag this...and in 2 months we'll come back to these words  I typed, because I am about to make another prediction.  I predict within 2 more months this game is going to be nearing 500k subs.

see ya in 2 months.

  rammur65

Novice Member

Joined: 11/30/11
Posts: 55

2/03/12 11:52:05 PM#669

Funny how people seem to think they KNOW a game is failing because THEY dont like it lol funny either way a million subs is more than enough to keep a game floating  WoW had just set a standerd when they got lucky and a bit of info WoW didnt get its 10+ mill over night took them a few years to even touch the double digit mills.

  Kruul

Novice Member

Joined: 6/06/02
Posts: 483

2/04/12 12:07:33 AM#670

I figured it was going to have a high retention rate. The guild I am in pushes around 40 members during primetime and all but a few are still subbed and having a blast. This game has brought us back together because after NGE many of us were playing different games.

  sirchive

Advanced Member

Joined: 12/18/03
Posts: 66

2/04/12 2:11:14 AM#671

Every single person I know who plays SWTOR (about 8 total) subbed for the first subscription month but plans to unsubscribe before the second is billed. 

This is purely anecdotal of course. But I think a large number of players are in the same place. We were willing to pay for one additional month past the included month in order to get to endgame or to see what was added. But now we've seen and we are not impressed. 

There is no possible way to judge the success of a highly publicized MMO in the first 60 days. Retention rate after 60 days will be the first real sign of success or failure. 

  lalartu

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/22/05
Posts: 435

2/04/12 2:21:37 AM#672

I personally see this game as a single player feature, so once I'm done with the storylines that I'm interested in, I'll unsub too.

I might resub in 1-2 years if theres enough new content though

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  Xthos

Novice Member

Joined: 4/18/10
Posts: 2651

2/04/12 2:22:17 AM#673

-1 here....Well will be 2, since the wife plays too...

 

She still messes around with an alt, but I can't get myself to log in anymore...I swear all I do is hit bugs in the end game, broken quests...I wasn't thrilled before then, but it was more solid....Seems they really dropped the ball on Ilum.

 

Just not my thing, but I got my money worth...Just not worth paying any longer for.

 

  Holyavenger1

Elite Member

Joined: 1/23/06
Posts: 425

2/04/12 2:54:35 AM#674

I forsee this game having very high churn rate and low retention rate. Too much of a single player.

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  troublmaker

Novice Member

Joined: 5/10/11
Posts: 340

2/04/12 3:07:42 AM#675
Originally posted by sirchive

Every single person I know who plays SWTOR (about 8 total) subbed for the first subscription month but plans to unsubscribe before the second is billed. 

This is purely anecdotal of course. But I think a large number of players are in the same place. We were willing to pay for one additional month past the included month in order to get to endgame or to see what was added. But now we've seen and we are not impressed. 

There is no possible way to judge the success of a highly publicized MMO in the first 60 days. Retention rate after 60 days will be the first real sign of success or failure. 

Everyone was saying one month because that's when the free sub is up.  Now people are saying two months so that people get a chance to see end game.  I suspect that evnetually people will say "its one year the drop off is coming!"

 

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  Distaste

Advanced Member

Joined: 10/03/06
Posts: 668

2/04/12 5:12:33 AM#676
Originally posted by troublmaker
Originally posted by sirchive

Every single person I know who plays SWTOR (about 8 total) subbed for the first subscription month but plans to unsubscribe before the second is billed. 

This is purely anecdotal of course. But I think a large number of players are in the same place. We were willing to pay for one additional month past the included month in order to get to endgame or to see what was added. But now we've seen and we are not impressed. 

There is no possible way to judge the success of a highly publicized MMO in the first 60 days. Retention rate after 60 days will be the first real sign of success or failure. 

Everyone was saying one month because that's when the free sub is up.  Now people are saying two months so that people get a chance to see end game.  I suspect that evnetually people will say "its one year the drop off is coming!"

 

Not entirely correct. While there are some that might have said that after 1 month the game would lose all their subs they are put into the same boat as those that thought there were already 6 million in pre-orders. Those who actually posted reasonings were fairly sound.

The first month drop is only those that bought the game and experienced something totally different than what they were sold on OR those that rushed to endgame and ran out of content. They are not the majority so unless the game is blatantly unfinished/buggy you won't see a massive exodus in a single month. Everyone else are consuming the leveling content and since there aren't major issues with that they will resub.

The 2nd month is when people are hitting endgame and finding the gigantic flaw with Bioware's game design, the story runs out. So a good chunk will quit the game there.

The 3rd month is the "hope" month as people who want to love the game are still holding on to hope that the march patch will make the game awesome. Unfortunetly there is no such thing as a miracle patch and the content being introduced will hold them for  maybe 2 weeks and more will quit.

The 6th month is when the 3 month and 6 month subs that people bought on hype alone. So while they might have stopped playing months ago their subs are finally removed from EA's numbers.

 

Do you understand the logic of the 3-6 month estimate now? It isn't just people "Maybe next month they will go under!".

  Gorilla

Old School

Joined: 6/07/04
Posts: 2218

2/04/12 6:17:15 AM#677

Too late to participate in this (massive) thread it is worth reminding (Im sure it has been pointed out many times) that this is the number of people that had 'subscribed' at the end of last year so, 10 days into release. Essentially it was people that have bought the game created an account and logged in. Tbh it seems a little on the low side though healthy enough. Really it only tells you about intial sales and next to nothing about real subs.

 

  dubyahite

Novice Member

Joined: 1/17/11
Posts: 2506

2/04/12 6:31:29 AM#678
Originally posted by Gorilla

Too late to participate in this (massive) thread it is worth reminding (Im sure it has been pointed out many times) that this is the number of people that had 'subscribed' at the end of last year so, 10 days into release. Essentially it was people that have bought the game created an account and logged in. Tbh it seems a little on the low side though healthy enough. Really it only tells you about intial sales and next to nothing about real subs.

 

Incorrect. Perhaps you should have read some of the thread.  I know it's huge but it has been confirmed multiple times that these numbers are current for the Earnings Call. 

 

They are current as of 2/1/2012.  

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  Gorilla

Old School

Joined: 6/07/04
Posts: 2218

2/04/12 7:02:04 AM#679
Originally posted by dubyahite
Originally posted by Gorilla

Too late to participate in this (massive) thread it is worth reminding (Im sure it has been pointed out many times) that this is the number of people that had 'subscribed' at the end of last year so, 10 days into release. Essentially it was people that have bought the game created an account and logged in. Tbh it seems a little on the low side though healthy enough. Really it only tells you about intial sales and next to nothing about real subs.

 

Incorrect. Perhaps you should have read some of the thread.  I know it's huge but it has been confirmed multiple times that these numbers are current for the Earnings Call. 

 

They are current as of 2/1/2012.  

If I had come to it a dozen pages in maybe I would I am not about to read 70 pages of what undoubtedly is largely BS. I was going to say the press release is clear in what it says, however after re-reading carefully it it is not, there are a couple of ambiguities. I could not see anywhere is said that the period they are talking about was as of 2/1/2012, maybe I missed that.  I guess we will have to wait for the end of fiscal year figures for a completely clear picture. 

Edit: They do seem to be doing as well as can be expected, not particularly better or worse. The market seems to have taken it reasonably well.

  dubyahite

Novice Member

Joined: 1/17/11
Posts: 2506

2/04/12 7:08:15 AM#680
This press release isn't the main source for the numbers.

This is based on information from the earnings call.

It is very clear in the call that the numbers are current.

It's been posted in thi thread 300 freakin times.


The numbers are current.

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