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Star Trek Online

Star Trek Online 

General Discussion  » How long until STO gets shutdown ?

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35 posts found
  Robsolf

Advanced Member

Joined: 4/21/06
Posts: 4013

Let go of my ears, I know what I'm doing!

1/24/12 9:00:27 AM#21
Originally posted by WhiteLantern
Originally posted by Dicehunter

I really like STO but F2P usually leads to a game being abandoned or shutdown, which will it be for STO, thoughts ?

LotRO - just had an expansion

DDO - about to get a major update

Champions online - consistently added to

DCUO - early, but still being updated

For something to "usually" happen, it has to be regular. Where are the games that switched and shut down?

Oh yeah, Lego Universe - Dead in a matter of days.

This.

The paradigm for F2P games has shifted drastically over the past couple years, ever since DDO(Turbine) took the plunge and revenue skyrocketed.  It's no longer a desperate "last gasp", and is probably being considered for every game that has gotten everything it can from box sales.

I've long believed that DCUO was MADE to be F2P, but they wanted to get box sales from it, first, since it's a popular IP.  I thought it would be longer before they switched, but I think their PvP bugs killed their sub base faster than expected.

Once an MMO is of a certain age, charging for a box, or even charging $15/mo with no alternatives is a revenue killer.    

  TruthXHurts

Novice Member

Joined: 6/20/10
Posts: 1641

I am here to chew bubblegum and to kick ass... and I'm all out of bubblegum!

1/24/12 9:03:08 AM#22

I'm convinced that these companies plan to fail. they hype the game till your bleeding out of your ears from anticipation. They sell a huge amount of boxes. The game turns out to be garbage, and then they switch to F2P. They then move on to the next failed project.

"I am not in a server with Gankers...THEY ARE IN A SERVER WITH ME!!!"

  gervaise1

Elite Member

Joined: 1/17/07
Posts: 1280

1/24/12 9:36:33 AM#23
Originally posted by nariusseldon
Originally posted by Dicehunter

I really like STO but F2P usually leads to a game being abandoned or shutdown, which will it be for STO, thoughts ?

hmm ... what are you smoking?

DDO turns F2P and makes a lot more money. So they are now releasing an expansion FOR FREE in the summer. Shutting now?

LOTRO also makes more money after turning F2P.

DCU seems to be doing well after turnin F2P.

I believe there are some successs story after EQ2 turns F2P too.

The only one i am not sure is AOC. How is that doing after turning F2P?

 

Actually we don't know whether any of the titles are making more money after going F2P. And with something like LotR any results are buried in the bowels of WarnerBros (if you have found some please post). For AoC it is possible to read Funcom's results: more than 600k tested the new hybrid model and revenue went up - in the first two months - and was cash flow positive. Which is good although not the same as profitable.   

Typically what is said - right after going F2P - is that they 'had lots more players' and/or 'had seen increased revenue'. Neither of which means they are making more money or even making money at all. And lets face it, if you can't get lots of players right after you go F2P in a blaze of publicity you are truly doomed. 

Example: In the last 9 months Zynga attracted 400k users. And an average Zynga user spent $150. Headlines: Zynga attracts 400k new users; Zynga revenue goes up $60M. The missing detail - and what has just been released to analysts is that Zynga spent $120M attracting these new customers. That's $300 per customer. A loss of $150 per customer. Users and revenue sound great but they don't necessarily mean profit. If the customers stick around for over 2 years then maybe.

Nor is it just Lego Universe either. EA have just announced that they are closing Baking Life - one   of the titles produced by Popcap (that EA paid mega$$$ for). Users numbers have dropped to the point that it is no longer deemed profitable; from 6.7M to a mere 760k. That's 760,000 and not profitable.

And Roma Victor - sadly - has just closed as well after server failures. This is the type of detail that cash flow positive ignores; it simply means that the money coming in covers the on-going costs but ignores depreciation etc. Better than not covering the cost however!

Yes F2P does work - at least in the short term for some games. Whether it can revitalise failed P2P mmorpgs, especially ones not designed to be F2P from the get-go is another matter. They might be - but don't mistake player numbers and revenue for profit.

  Vyeth

Novice Member

Joined: 12/17/07
Posts: 1464

Celebrated pariah of MMORPG.com

1/24/12 9:50:23 AM#24

Failed P2P MMO's that do not switch to F2P die much faster than ones that convert...

This community hates F2P, but it is not so much a negative when it comes to a sinking ship..

Some MMO's aren't even worth a full on sub, yet attempt it anyway and end up falling on their faces or shutting down early..

Developers are more serious about the deciding which pay scheme to use these days, because the wrong decision could be the difference between financial success or failure..

  Dragonantis

Novice Member

Joined: 12/16/10
Posts: 970

1/24/12 9:53:26 AM#25

I have been watching STO since release, while completly under Atari control the game didnt get very far, but I have to give credit to Perfect World for taking it in the right direction, I would call the F2P launch a success

  Robsolf

Advanced Member

Joined: 4/21/06
Posts: 4013

Let go of my ears, I know what I'm doing!

1/24/12 10:04:24 AM#26
Originally posted by TruthXHurts

I'm convinced that these companies plan to fail. they hype the game till your bleeding out of your ears from anticipation. They sell a huge amount of boxes. The game turns out to be garbage, and then they switch to F2P. They then move on to the next failed project.

I think that's a bit harsh, really.  Do you intentionally do crappy work at your job?  I think most gaming companies try to make the best game they can(yes, even Cryptic!) with the resources they have.  The resources may not be sufficient, or they may be pressured by influence outside of development, and yes, sometimes they even fail to make the game they wanted.  But the idea that they purposefully take a dump in a dvd case and sell it for $60... you can't go far doing business like that.

But I'm sure they plan for obsolescence.  An MMO can and should have a longer shelf life than a single player game, but sooner or later, people are gonna stop playing and move on.  and yep, seeing that happen is probably what spurred Turbine to give DDO that "one last chance" to bring in revenue.  But I don't think that's the only reason, or even the biggest reason so many games do it, today.

I do wonder what will happen as more and more games become F2P.  Can't help but wonder if it's gonna be a "race to the bottom", after all.

  TruthXHurts

Novice Member

Joined: 6/20/10
Posts: 1641

I am here to chew bubblegum and to kick ass... and I'm all out of bubblegum!

1/24/12 10:07:02 AM#27
Originally posted by Robsolf
Originally posted by TruthXHurts

I'm convinced that these companies plan to fail. they hype the game till your bleeding out of your ears from anticipation. They sell a huge amount of boxes. The game turns out to be garbage, and then they switch to F2P. They then move on to the next failed project.

I think that's a bit harsh, really.  Do you intentionally do crappy work at your job?  I think most gaming companies try to make the best game they can(yes, even Cryptic!) with the resources they have.  The resources may not be sufficient, or they may be pressured by influence outside of development, and yes, sometimes they even fail to make the game they wanted.  But the idea that they purposefully take a dump in a dvd case and sell it for $60... you can't go far doing business like that.

But I'm sure they plan for obsolescence.  An MMO can and should have a longer shelf life than a single player game, but sooner or later, people are gonna stop playing and move on.  and yep, seeing that happen is probably what spurred Turbine to give DDO that "one last chance" to bring in revenue.  But I don't think that's the only reason, or even the biggest reason so many games do it, today.

I do wonder what will happen as more and more games become F2P.  Can't help but wonder if it's gonna be a "race to the bottom", after all.

SPAM has been around for a long time, and I'm pretty sure that's a dump in a can.

"I am not in a server with Gankers...THEY ARE IN A SERVER WITH ME!!!"

  Fadedbomb

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 5/19/06
Posts: 2149

1/24/12 10:07:03 AM#28
Originally posted by Dicehunter

I really like STO but F2P usually leads to a game being abandoned or shutdown, which will it be for STO, thoughts ?

I just started STO with a friend because i was SO UNGODLY BORED. I logged into my old character to find HUNDREDS of people, just in my instance alone, running around doing stuff. There isn't a single bit of space that i've found that is dead.

 

Apparently, STO has come up from death to "meh" with their F2P model. That being said, i don't see it lasting. Their game design is so much more linear that SWTOR that it won't last for more than a year.

The Theory of Conservative Conservation of Ignorant Stupidity:
Having a different opinion must mean you're a troll.

  Vyeth

Novice Member

Joined: 12/17/07
Posts: 1464

Celebrated pariah of MMORPG.com

1/24/12 10:17:32 AM#29
Originally posted by Robsolf

I do wonder what will happen as more and more games become F2P.  Can't help but wonder if it's gonna be a "race to the bottom", after all.

The thing these companies need to understand is that the more of these AAA F2P games that are released, the harder it will be for a true P2P game to find success..

Even after the launch of SWTOR, EQ2 has had a good stable population.. Lotro still has a good playerbase.. DDO still has a good playerbase.. Now STO grabs a few players..

 

The question is, how "good" does a game have to be to warrant a subscription to play? Chances are they would have to offer a lot more than the current F2P generation or why should someone stop paying for what they want and start paying simply to play?

 

Companies that consider F2P have to consider the competition on the market in this genre.. There are many F2P games that have the "WoW" formula, would releasing another that requires a user to pay to play persuade the fans of the already free game to start paying to play another?

  ShardWarrior

Advanced Member

Joined: 4/18/11
Posts: 296

1/24/12 10:40:20 AM#30
Originally posted by Vyeth

The thing these companies need to understand is that the more of these AAA F2P games that are released, the harder it will be for a true P2P game to find success..

Just a nitpick, but I personally would not categorize STO as AAA by any stretch of the imagination. 

  Cruis.In

Novice Member

Joined: 12/21/06
Posts: 16

1/24/12 2:17:14 PM#31

it is one thing to go free to play, its another to have a good money making revenue model.

 

you can be f2p but have no appealing way for people to spend money, then it'll kill you.

For what does it profit a man that he gain the whole world, but loseth his soul?

  fenistil

Novice Member

Joined: 9/22/11
Posts: 3016

1/24/12 2:20:52 PM#32
Originally posted by ShardWarrior
Originally posted by Vyeth

The thing these companies need to understand is that the more of these AAA F2P games that are released, the harder it will be for a true P2P game to find success..

Just a nitpick, but I personally would not categorize STO as AAA by any stretch of the imagination. 

Agreed. STO never even was close to being AAA title.

  hercules

Apprentice Member

Joined: 4/21/03
Posts: 4791

1/28/12 7:19:51 AM#33
Originally posted by Dicehunter

I really like STO but F2P usually leads to a game being abandoned or shutdown, which will it be for STO, thoughts ?

f2p actually brings new life to games.good examples are DDO,EQ2,LOTRO and DUO.

 

  mgilbrtsn

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 2/14/09
Posts: 1130

He who fights and runs away... misses out on the loot

1/28/12 7:27:42 AM#34
Originally posted by CujoSWAoA

Which big budget MMORPG that has gone to a Free 2 Play model has been shut down?

Where do you get this idea that "going free to play usually means its about to be shut down"

The only MMORPG that has recently been shut off was Star Wars Galaxies, and that game wasn't F2P.

Where do you guys come up with this shit?

I agree with your sentiment that the logic of it doesn't hold up.  However, there is a common belief that the new evolutionary model goes something like this.

 

Game launches (high box sale, high subscription)

Game begins to lose subscribers, game adds free trial to get subscriptions back up.

Game continues to lose subscriptions, game goes F2P

F2P for as long as possible to milk store sales in preperation for the end.

 

The fact is, that F2P has not been proven to be an evolutionary part of a games demise.  Like CujoSWAoA says, there just aren't the examples out there to base this common view out there.  But like many things, perceptions can be a powerful thing, even if there aren't facts to back it up.

They are coming for you!

  darker70

Apprentice Member

Joined: 10/21/08
Posts: 821

A child of five would understand this. Send someone to fetch a child of five.
Groucho Marx

1/28/12 7:29:02 AM#35

Lol,this thread made me laugh Perfect World Entertainment now own Cryptic/ STO i can only see it getting stronger as PE are makeing money by the bucketload and with a very fair F2P system STO will live long and prosper 

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