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Star Wars: The Old Republic

Star Wars: The Old Republic 

General Discussion  » Current Graphs Showing Decline - (Found something interesting).

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184 posts found
  teakbois

Apprentice Member

Joined: 5/06/06
Posts: 2190

1/20/12 5:37:13 PM#81
Originally posted by Teala

 

One thing is for certain, based on the numbers we're seeing from these two wesbites, SWTOR has lost a lot of players in just its first month.

 

 

 

If you want to go by xfire, xfire shows a drop in about 7.5% activity from the first weekend to the last weekend

  Caldicot

Hard Core Member

Joined: 7/10/07
Posts: 330

Hobbes was right, Rousseau was wrong.

1/20/12 5:40:06 PM#82

What's the big deal? Of course a large enough sample is going to provide data to draw general conclusions from. It's basic statistics. Using two independent sources provides even more reliable data. The conclusion to be drawn from this example is that SWTOR is in decline at the moment. Are there any numbers that says anything other than that?

"If you wish to make an apple pie from scratch, you must first invent the universe." - Carl Sagan

  teakbois

Apprentice Member

Joined: 5/06/06
Posts: 2190

1/20/12 5:40:38 PM#83
Originally posted by Bunks

funny now that you mention it, WOW had a peak on Jan 15 like SWTOR only wow stayed constant (within 15%) even though SWTOR had a 55% drop off.

you might want to go look at the chart again.

 

Also WoW didnt have downtime, SWTOR did.  Weekday numbers are more or less useless, gotta check the weekend peaks.

  Ridrith

Apprentice Member

Joined: 7/11/08
Posts: 161

1/20/12 5:42:17 PM#84

The graphs are really cool, but I'm about to ask the most important question of all.  Who actually gives a shit?  I know I don't.  I bought the game, played it for a days until I got to level 13 and quit.  Wasted $60.00.  I'm done with the game, and I'll never play it again.  HOWEVER.  Does it really matter that the playerbase is in decline?  In the grand scheme of things nobody is going to care about this information.  Unless you're an invenstor.  Which I doubt you are.

 

The regular player is going be either:  A.  Playing the game, and not caring.  B.  Not playing the game, and still not caring.

 

It's cool that this information is out there for us to look at, but, uh...  It's not really interesting.

  Bunks

Novice Member

Joined: 1/08/12
Posts: 987

1/20/12 5:43:56 PM#85
Originally posted by teakbois
Originally posted by Bunks

funny now that you mention it, WOW had a peak on Jan 15 like SWTOR only wow stayed constant (within 15%) even though SWTOR had a 55% drop off.

you might want to go look at the chart again.

 

Also WoW didnt have downtime, SWTOR did.  Weekday numbers are more or less useless, gotta check the weekend peaks.

someone needs a new calcualtor , and it isn't me.

  teakbois

Apprentice Member

Joined: 5/06/06
Posts: 2190

1/20/12 5:44:58 PM#86
Originally posted by Ridrith

 

It's cool that this information is out there for us to look at, but, uh...  It's not really interesting.

I find it interesting personally, but then again I like statistics.

  User Deleted
1/20/12 5:45:14 PM#87
Originally posted by Ridrith

The graphs are really cool, but I'm about to ask the most important question of all.  Who actually gives a shit?  I know I don't.  I bought the game, played it for a days until I got to level 13 and quit.  Wasted $60.00.  I'm done with the game, and I'll never play it again.  HOWEVER.  Does it really matter that the playerbase is in decline?  In the grand scheme of things nobody is going to care about this information.  Unless you're an invenstor.  Which I doubt you are.

 

The regular player is going be either:  A.  Playing the game, and not caring.  B.  Not playing the game, and still not caring.

 

It's cool that this information is out there for us to look at, but, uh...  It's not really interesting.

People care for lots of different reasons.  I care because I hope that there are many others who quit for some of the same reasons and that we can make a big enough dent to get them to make some much needed design changes.  Others care because they like to think XFire numbers mean something and want to see a correlation with more legitimate stats.  Others predicted the game to fail and like to look at anything that may prove them right.

  BizkitNL

Old School

Joined: 12/29/02
Posts: 2162

"Free to play, pay to win""

1/20/12 5:45:18 PM#88
Originally posted by Ridrith

The graphs are really cool, but I'm about to ask the most important question of all.  Who actually gives a shit?  I know I don't.  I bought the game, played it for a days until I got to level 13 and quit.  Wasted $60.00.  I'm done with the game, and I'll never play it again.  HOWEVER.  Does it really matter that the playerbase is in decline?  In the grand scheme of things nobody is going to care about this information.  Unless you're an invenstor.  Which I doubt you are.

 

The regular player is going be either:  A.  Playing the game, and not caring.  B.  Not playing the game, and still not caring.

 

It's cool that this information is out there for us to look at, but, uh...  It's not really interesting.

If I want to buy a banana, first thing I do is check if Chiquita's stocks are okay. If not, to hell with them! If so, then I gots me a yum-in-yer-tum banana.

Elementary.

0___x "I'm afraid I can't do that, Dave".

  teakbois

Apprentice Member

Joined: 5/06/06
Posts: 2190

1/20/12 5:48:03 PM#89
Originally posted by Bunks
Originally posted by teakbois
Originally posted by Bunks

funny now that you mention it, WOW had a peak on Jan 15 like SWTOR only wow stayed constant (within 15%) even though SWTOR had a 55% drop off.

you might want to go look at the chart again.

 

Also WoW didnt have downtime, SWTOR did.  Weekday numbers are more or less useless, gotta check the weekend peaks.

someone needs a new calcualtor , and it isn't me.

105,000 down to 75,000 is more than 15%, dont need a calculator to see that

 

Also 70,000 to 40,000 is not 55%.   Dont need a calculator for that either.

  teakbois

Apprentice Member

Joined: 5/06/06
Posts: 2190

1/20/12 5:53:04 PM#90
Originally posted by Ridrith
  Boobs sell.

would you prefer the pirate over here? ------->

  alexmino

Novice Member

Joined: 11/15/11
Posts: 134

1/20/12 5:53:48 PM#91

This is a post where i make guesses at how a game that isn't my pet game is doing to make myself feel better because i take ownership of games i didn't make.

Previous to this time, i talked about how World of Warcraft really wasn't that successful.

 

  Chieftan

Novice Member

Joined: 5/16/05
Posts: 1306

1/20/12 5:54:51 PM#92
Originally posted by Bunks
Originally posted by Chieftan
Originally posted by Teala

I find something rather interesting.  I know people keep saying you can't use xFire to measure the overall health of an MMO and it only shows the health of the game for those people that use xfire.   Cool, cool...if you want to believe that doesn't show the overall health of the game in general you're free to believe that.

However, when matched against SWArena.com's graphic of server population numbers I saw something very intersting.   The peaks and valleys from the two graphics match up very well.   SWArena.com numbers take into account only SWTOR and it's player base.  It is weird that these two websites graphcs are so close to being the same(check out the peaks and valleys) it is, in my opinion, very telling.

One thing is for certain, based on the numbers we're seeing from these two wesbites, SWTOR has lost a lot of players in just its first month.

Hey sweetie when you were formulating this hypothesis did you happen to check the graphs of any of the other games on xFire?  You might want to do that before you start forming any more opinions.

funny now that you mention it, WOW had a peak on Jan 15 like SWTOR only wow stayed constant (within 15%) even though SWTOR had a 55% drop off.

All of the games in xFire's top 5 show a decline since December 19th. 

  Bunks

Novice Member

Joined: 1/08/12
Posts: 987

1/20/12 5:56:25 PM#93
Originally posted by teakbois
Originally posted by Bunks

funny now that you mention it, WOW had a peak on Jan 15 like SWTOR only wow stayed constant (within 15%) even though SWTOR had a 55% drop off.

you might want to go look at the chart again.

 

Also WoW didnt have downtime, SWTOR did.  Weekday numbers are more or less useless, gotta check the weekend peaks.

1/15

70569 swtor

1/19

38669

= .5479

so yeah it dropped to 54% of its peak

  teakbois

Apprentice Member

Joined: 5/06/06
Posts: 2190

1/20/12 5:59:20 PM#94
Originally posted by Chieftan

All of the games in xFire's top 5 show a decline since December 19th. 

3 of those games are ancient and the other is a 2 year old f2p game.

 

In other words:  none of them had anywhere near the amount of new people joining since dec 19th as swtor did

  teakbois

Apprentice Member

Joined: 5/06/06
Posts: 2190

1/20/12 6:03:10 PM#95
Originally posted by Bunks
Originally posted by teakbois
Originally posted by Bunks

funny now that you mention it, WOW had a peak on Jan 15 like SWTOR only wow stayed constant (within 15%) even though SWTOR had a 55% drop off.

you might want to go look at the chart again.

 

Also WoW didnt have downtime, SWTOR did.  Weekday numbers are more or less useless, gotta check the weekend peaks.

1/15

70569 swtor

1/19

38669

= .5479

so yeah it dropped to 54% of its peak

Which isnt a 55% drop off (or a 54% drop off)

  Distopia

Drifter

Joined: 11/22/05
Posts: 12069

Give it a rest

1/20/12 6:06:06 PM#96

So many variables to consider here, first it was during a period of vacation that TOR was released, this alone jumbles these numbers a little bit. Add to that the simple fact that population roll-off will happen regardless of the quality of any MMO. We all know a chunk of players will play to end-game and quit it always happens. Add on top of all of that, some serious issues the game has seen over last couple of weeks, which will push even more players away. I don't find this surprising at all.

 

 

For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson

If you can't argue the point don't say anything at all.
Waiting on The Repopulation.

  smh_alot

Apprentice Member

Joined: 1/10/12
Posts: 990

1/20/12 6:07:06 PM#97
Originally posted by Professor78
Originally posted by smh_alot
Originally posted by Professor78 Most other MMORPGS's are rising over the last couple of weeks if you take Xfire as a "sample" so your "holidays over" argument is kind of flawed..

? Which ones have shown a rise? You meant Xfire, right?

LOTRO, AION, D&D, RIFT, WOW, STAR TREK, AOC, EVE........Sorry bore now, there will be more no doubt.

Heh. Ok, let's get down to the nitty-gritty, shall we?

Xfire player numbers:


WoW: 1/3 19.6k, 1/10 19.2k, 1/17 19.2k players

Aion: 1/3 980, 1/10 930, 1/17 805 players

LotrO: 1/3 860, 1/10 867, 1/17 845 players

Rift: 1/3 411, 1/10 400, 1/17 402 players



I could go on and pick another few like AoC or EVE or such, but it won't make a difference, the same trendline in player numbers as the ones I mentioned. I did pick the same day of the week of each week btw, only seems fair to compare like that, but I could have picked another day as well without it making much of a difference in trend.

So, I used Xfire like you did, and where you claimed to see a rise the past few weeks. My question, once again, where? So far not in the ones you mentioned.
Originally posted by Bunks
Originally posted by teakbois
Originally posted by Bunks

funny now that you mention it, WOW had a peak on Jan 15 like SWTOR only wow stayed constant (within 15%) even though SWTOR had a 55% drop off.

you might want to go look at the chart again.

 

Also WoW didnt have downtime, SWTOR did.  Weekday numbers are more or less useless, gotta check the weekend peaks.

1/15

70569 swtor

1/19

38669

= .5479

so yeah it dropped to 54% of its peak

 

Those are player hours, not player numbers, player numbers were 11.1k at 1/15 and 9.5k at 1/15. Furthermore, you're comparing a weekly peak (Sunday weekend) with a valley (weekday.

1/15 Sunday had 11.1k players compared to 1/7 Sunday that had 11k players

1/19 Thursday had 9.5k players compared to 1/12 Thursday that had 10.4k players


Sounds more like 10% dropoff in player numbers, not a 54%. Even more, there was no change from 1 Sunday to the next. Ofc situation will be different in the upcoming week, but you were comparing those 2 dates to support your claim, so I did too >.>
  hikaru77

Advanced Member

Joined: 3/28/07
Posts: 792

1/20/12 6:07:34 PM#98

OMG!! this people never give up?. they really want to see swtor fail, just lol. ok guys, lets say, swtor is doomed and 50% of the population just quit. Are you happy with that?. Haters gonna hate, good thing, is they are just wrong about swtor.

  teakbois

Apprentice Member

Joined: 5/06/06
Posts: 2190

1/20/12 6:09:56 PM#99
Originally posted by Distopia

Add to that the simple fact that population roll-off will happen regardless of the quality of any MMO. We all know a chunk of players will play to end-game and quit it always happens. 

 

 

This is actually a relatively new phenomenon, first seen with Rift.  LOTRO was the last quality game released before Rift, and it had a sub increase after first month.   Its easy to forget we have seen a steady diet of crap (VG, WAR, AoC) that dropped fast due to the game having major issues.

  dubyahite

Novice Member

Joined: 1/17/11
Posts: 2506

1/20/12 6:12:38 PM#100
All that either of those graphs measure is how much people play and concurrency. It doesn't measure subs at all.

You can't take data that measures one thing and say it measures something else.

OP, you claim this proves that they are losing players (which they probably are to some degree) but your graphs do not prove that or measure how many are leaving.

This is twisting data to fit your own agenda. When you don't have the data to back up your point, you can't just grab whatever data is available and pretend it means what you want it too.

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