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Star Wars: The Old Republic

Star Wars: The Old Republic 

General Discussion  » EA falls on broker concerns about 'Star Wars'

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146 posts found
  ComfyChair

Novice Member

Joined: 7/22/10
Posts: 766

1/19/12 1:27:23 PM#61

Invest in NCSoft.

Pretty much the safest bet in publishers at the moment. GW2 will be big once people get wind of it. The fact is, i've yet to see a naysayer that wasn't just misinformed about the game or talking about something we simply don't know about yet. Each mechanic announced so far seems to have been honed to perfection.

Off the top of my head, the only nitpick i can think of is that the world isn't one continuous world, it has zones (each one is pretty big though, roughly 4-6 times the size of the biggest GW1 maps). But then again, what MMO's are these days?

The second nitpick for some is the *rumour* of exp scrolls. But GW1 had exp scrolls in game too, they simply don't make much difference in guild wars, as levelling is not such a big deal. The levelling curve is flat after level 20 at around 90 minutes a level and levelling only serves the purpose of semi-gating content. I say semi as you can still go to harder areas and you'll be somewhat boosted so that you and a few friends can still play in that area for a 'challenge'. The developers have even said it's one of the ways players can seek 'challenging' content in the open world apart from elite events on Orr ect. Unless the scrolls are offensively good, like a 100% boost, i doubt anyone is going to mind. I'd compare it to a less powerful version of the exp boosters in LoL.

  TheHavok

Advanced Member

Joined: 7/13/04
Posts: 2406

"Free crack and everybody gets laid."

1/19/12 1:32:11 PM#62
Originally posted by Paragus1
Originally posted by noncley
Originally posted by Tyvolus3
Originally posted by Airwren
Originally posted by altair4

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ea-falls-on-broker-concerns-about-star-wars-2012-01-19?siteid=yhoof2

In before some fanboi tries to discredit the wall street journal.

I am the farthest thing from a SWTOR or EA or bioware fanboi you will ever find....BUT, WSJ is owned by fox news (sic) corp.....just sayin'.

Exactly, and everyone knows Rupert Murdoch isa typical h8er obsessed with SWG sandboxes. Well, sorry., SWTOR is a dull little repetitive themepark and if you don't like that, Roops, go play Eve. KTHXBAI

LOL!

All joking aside, I am kind of curious what the projected initial box sales were.  The game seemed to do really well in this department, unless maybe they are counting retention past the first month into this?

I think they might be counting box sales for the first complete 30 days.  Judging by SWTOR's server pop going down, I think that box sales had a huge drop after christmas and the game is no longer growing - which I assume must be below expectations.

  Bunks

Novice Member

Joined: 1/08/12
Posts: 987

1/19/12 1:42:10 PM#63

You guys are making this way to complicated. EA never came out with a number, nor a baseline expectation. The investor groups pitching it, like Pratcher of Wedbush Securities, did. Who has been EA's staunch pitch man.

 

He was the one who sold investors the pitch that SWTOR could earn $80 million in profit with at least 3-4 million sales and a 1.5 million subscription base. Then Activision's CEO and a few other CEO's (Bigpoints for example) threw a few elbows at investors trying to scare some off with the whole (only Lucas will make money argument). This was at a time, EA needed more cash because the budget for SWTOR was already exceeding the $80 million mark and the only way to justify more expenses was the promise of big returns.. THose investors who bought the pitch are now panicking, those who didn't are now circling like sharks to take out Riccitiello.

This is just kabuki theater till the hard numbers come in.

  TUX426

Inquisitor

Joined: 8/04/09
Posts: 1971

Always remember that you're unique. Just like everyone else.

1/19/12 1:43:45 PM#64
Originally posted by ComfyChair

Invest in NCSoft.

Pretty much the safest bet in publishers at the moment. GW2 will be big...

Yeah, because just what the market needs is another sword and fairy game right?!

 

  KingPinoy

Novice Member

Joined: 12/14/11
Posts: 55

1/19/12 1:48:06 PM#65
Originally posted by TUX426
Originally posted by ComfyChair

Invest in NCSoft.

Pretty much the safest bet in publishers at the moment. GW2 will be big...

Yeah, because just what the market needs is another sword and fairy game right?!

 

I dont see a problem with it. Kinda just seems like Star Wars is nothing more than a wizard with a sword. People using guns is no different than a bow, just skined differently. IDK though, havent touched this game nor do i plan to. Always been a huge fan and supporter of mass pvp.

  Moaky07

Advanced Member

Joined: 2/24/07
Posts: 2199

MMO sandbox games are as exciting as watching paint dry.

1/19/12 1:49:44 PM#66
Originally posted by Wickedjelly
Originally posted by Tyvolus3

maybe to you it doesnt, but I most certainly do not share your opinion on this matter.  journalistic credibility has been tainted for their parent company and in my world, that means something.

What possible agenda or motivation would they have for misreporting on this? It isn't like dissing this game will somehow help them from a personal standpoint or give the finger to liberals.

 

I dont think the person would have an agenda, but where is his polling for the "churn".

 

I would think the person was checking out comments on the Internet.....namely Metacritic and possibly this site. If so, I would be thinking the game is gonna die as well.

 

Which is why what has been going on with this forum is BS. Some of the folks in this thread are the same individuals that have done nothing but whine for months now. Some of you really need to STFU. As a PVE game, I am having a blast in TOR. If it doesnt fit your style, find something else to play.

Asking Devs to make AAA sandbox titles is like trying to get fine dining on a McDonalds dollar menu budget.

  Wickedjelly

Novice Member

Joined: 4/19/09
Posts: 5064

The Dude abides

1/19/12 2:00:30 PM#67
Originally posted by Moaky07

I would think the person was checking out comments on the Internet.....namely Metacritic and possibly this site. If so, I would be thinking the game is gonna die as well.

I doubt it. These guys are pretty good at what they do. There's a reason people pay attention to them so much. Granted that isn't to say they aren't ever wrong.

Really don't think that is the case though here. As I said before some people's expectations over this whole affair were simply completely unrealistic.

As I said before though I'm actually not bashing the game nor am I even referring to this game being a bust or failure. The reality though is that this game is not going to be the huge success some planned on least not anytime soon outside of the initial sale burst. It isn't going to be a complete failure like some are hoping for either.

It will do well and over time it could even have a really enormous player base and retention rate pending on how EA and BW handle matters. Simply isn't going to happen overnight or as quickly as some assumed it would.

 

1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.

2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.

3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.

  Bunks

Novice Member

Joined: 1/08/12
Posts: 987

1/19/12 2:05:29 PM#68
Originally posted by Wickedjelly
Originally posted by Moaky07

I would think the person was checking out comments on the Internet.....namely Metacritic and possibly this site. If so, I would be thinking the game is gonna die as well.

I doubt it. These guys are pretty good at what they do. There's a reason people pay attention to them so much. Granted that isn't to say they aren't ever wrong.

Really don't think that is the case though here. As I said before some people's expectations over this whole affair were simply completely unrealistic.

As I said before though I'm actually not bashing the game nor am I even referring to this game being a bust or failure. The reality though is that this game is not going to be the huge success some planned on least not anytime soon outside of the initial sale burst. It isn't going to be a complete failure like some are hoping for either.

It will do well and over time it could even have a really enormous player base and retention rate pending on how EA and BW handle matters. Simply isn't going to happen overnight or as quickly as some assumed it would.

 

Spot on. They just oversold it and reality is settling in.

Moaky, this has less to do with the game but more the industry itself. SWTOR fans mistake people who want to see the industry turn toward something new as an attack on the game. In fact, there are two camps. Those who are fans of other games and don't want to see their base dry up. Then there is camp two, those who don't wan't to see EA or Activision continue to keep a stale old format like WOW and SWTOR as a cash cow, because it siphons off investments away from more innovative game designs.

  gervaise1

Elite Member

Joined: 1/17/07
Posts: 1158

1/19/12 2:07:13 PM#69
Originally posted by Qazaam

I'm not sure where Todd Mitchell recieved his information from outside of pure guesswork and speculation (which stock traders use too frequently).  At this point, we don't know what 'below sales expectations' means or if that statement is even valid.  At the time of this posting, EA stock has fallen into the 'oversold' category, and should be bought up pretty quickly.  Good chance EA will end up even or even higher after today considering the lack of solid info in this 'concern' posting.  

Unless his expectations were far too high, and now he's adjusting his number to fit what he percieves as reality.  

It's impossible to know exactly what this all means for the time being.

Pre-launch analysts were increasing their expectations based in part on: EA saying vast numbers had signed up again for the  beta, Amazon pre-orders was another I saw - all sorts of 'hard info' (cough). 2 million initial with a further 1 million sales abounded (not with all analysts though). And initial sales drive subs. The analysts will have assumed some churn numbers - say 50% after the 1st month dropping to 25% say after 3 months. So if SWToR has only sold 1M (say) then they are now seeing 250k after 3 months; if they had assumed 2M initial rising to 3M sales after 3 months then they could have had 750k after 3 months - whatever. So sales drive subs. So it does look like analysts 'pulling back'.

Now based on what EA said about Q3 (at the time of their  Q2 results) I estimated that EA were only expecting c. 1.6M sales. I am not going to redo the sums but EA clearly said they expected to make $33M less in Q3 as a result of SWToR launching late.(10c a share less, c. 330M shares). Source: EA investors page e.g.

 http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ERTS/1640577211x0x512880/281c2933-f852-4d0a-9c00-7d9616fc0c30/Q2%20FY12_Prepared_Comments.pdf

Now subs fall outside EA's Q3 so if they were expecting $33M less profit this was due to fewer box/digital sales. Based on another analysts post - $60M profit from 2M sales - that would be 1M fewer sales.

as a result of fewer box sales. Amd if the analyst who predicted $60M profit from 2M sales (i.e. average profit $30 a sale) then EA clearly said that they expected to sell 1M less. They didn't add many new servers either so I suspect their expectations were pretty accurate. (Quick note: box sales to retailers will be higher than box sales to end customers and EA should get paid for all them regardless, digital sales are all direct to end customers).

So sales matter.

Looks like analyst pull back - for those analysts who got carried away.

Haven't seen Bioware claim 2M sales .....

  Wickedjelly

Novice Member

Joined: 4/19/09
Posts: 5064

The Dude abides

1/19/12 2:12:17 PM#70
Originally posted by ComfyChair

Invest in NCSoft.

Pretty much the safest bet in publishers at the moment. GW2 will be big once people get wind of it. The fact is, i've yet to see a naysayer that wasn't just misinformed about the game or talking about something we simply don't know about yet. Each mechanic announced so far seems to have been honed to perfection.

Off the top of my head, the only nitpick i can think of is that the world isn't one continuous world, it has zones (each one is pretty big though, roughly 4-6 times the size of the biggest GW1 maps). But then again, what MMO's are these days?

The second nitpick for some is the *rumour* of exp scrolls. But GW1 had exp scrolls in game too, they simply don't make much difference in guild wars, as levelling is not such a big deal. The levelling curve is flat after level 20 at around 90 minutes a level and levelling only serves the purpose of semi-gating content. I say semi as you can still go to harder areas and you'll be somewhat boosted so that you and a few friends can still play in that area for a 'challenge'. The developers have even said it's one of the ways players can seek 'challenging' content in the open world apart from elite events on Orr ect. Unless the scrolls are offensively good, like a 100% boost, i doubt anyone is going to mind. I'd compare it to a less powerful version of the exp boosters in LoL.

Actually you want to know a company to consider investing in? Probably going to sound hilarious coming from me but Funcom. That's right I said it. Me...the person that spent many posts pointing out how much of a fuckup they were with AoC.

Why do I say this? Because if...and I stress if...their new game ends up being a sleeper hit it could be a game that really gathers some steam. Add to the fact that they have such a bad wrap from their past business dealings you could make an argument they may even be a bit undervalued at this point. The potential is there anyways.

Assuming they don't have their heads completely up their asses this time like they did with AoC. Time will tell and I haven't played the game yet so no telling what condition it is in or if Funcom may have finally learned what management and customer service means yet but I'm putting it out there now that the potential is there.

Now watch, ten to one those assholes make me regret ever posting this.

XD

There's a lot there with that game though if they actually pull it off and the game is polished. Could really catch on with players due to how they're handling gameplay, skills, factions, and the genre in use as the backdrop for the game.

Then again all one has to say is "but its Funcom". And really...much as I would love to can't really argue with them haha. Although that could very well be a reason if they do pull this off some investors are going to be dances of joy from now until doomsday. Least monetarily speaking anyways.

1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.

2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.

3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.

  scotty899

Novice Member

Joined: 1/01/06
Posts: 173

1/19/12 2:16:17 PM#71

i dont know if it has been said yet here in the forums. but i was not about to read someones novel length reply.

george lucas announced yesterday that he will not be making any more starwars/mainstream movies. his latest film is his

last and then he is moving on to arthouse stuff. his reasons: fan bois getting on his nerve for the past 10 years or more.

so that is also another possibility of why shares have dropped

  gervaise1

Elite Member

Joined: 1/17/07
Posts: 1158

1/19/12 2:26:24 PM#72
Originally posted by Bunks

You guys are making this way to complicated. EA never came out with a number, nor a baseline expectation. The investor groups pitching it, like Pratcher of Wedbush Securities, did. Who has been EA's staunch pitch man.

 

He was the one who sold investors the pitch that SWTOR could earn $80 million in profit with at least 3-4 million sales and a 1.5 million subscription base. Then Activision's CEO and a few other CEO's (Bigpoints for example) threw a few elbows at investors trying to scare some off with the whole (only Lucas will make money argument). This was at a time, EA needed more cash because the budget for SWTOR was already exceeding the $80 million mark and the only way to justify more expenses was the promise of big returns.. THose investors who bought the pitch are now panicking, those who didn't are now circling like sharks to take out Riccitiello.

This is just kabuki theater till the hard numbers come in.

Agree Bunks.

Add the fact that the game cost EA a % of the $620M that they paid for Bioware/Pandemic (an investment sure but only 12 games so far and Pandemic 'absorbed' - EA now has debt that is costing money) and questions may well be asked. And it cost EA shareholders even more of course - the stock options taking the headline figure to $860M.

As I said above though EA themselves, I believe, were much more conservative than Pratcher. What happens owever if SWToR gets less than the 500k subs it needs to be substantially profitable? As you say until the hard numbers come out around the end of the month we won't know. How much will EA say?

  ReaperUk

Elite Member

Joined: 9/20/06
Posts: 548

1/19/12 2:27:15 PM#73
Originally posted by Creslin321

If anyone is interested, I just checked EA's stock on Google Finance, and it's dropping pretty quickly:  http://www.google.com/finance?q=ERTS#

Almost down 6% when I checked...ouch.  I don't know if investors are panicking just because of SWTOR, but something is definitely up.

Yes but the stock rallied in the afternoon. It's a typical graph for a falling stock. Down a lot then recover a bit. The pattern I see there is that the share price will fall even further tomorrow on fears of a big drop in player numbers for SWTOR's first subcription date. After that, it depends what EA comes up with to placate the markets.

  MMartian

Apprentice Member

Joined: 6/25/10
Posts: 46

1/19/12 2:53:01 PM#74
Originally posted by gervaise1

As I said above though EA themselves, I believe, were much more conservative than Pratcher. What happens owever if SWToR gets less than the 500k subs it needs to be substantially profitable? As you say until the hard numbers come out around the end of the month we won't know. How much will EA say?

Actually the number of paid subscribers on January 21 is less important than the number on February 21 or March 21.

The 500k subs if an accurate target, has to be the permanent substained number. If the number on January 21st is 100k there will of course be a big concern with the stockholders. If the number is 500k the reaction will be neutral since the game is new. The important number will be the trend over a few months.

If we beleive the EA press, 100k paid subscriptions at the end of January will be a 10% retention rate and the 500k number is a 50% retention rate. SWG had a major redesign due to a 20% retention rate being seen as a failure and in the first year WoW had a 70-80% retention rate was an unexpected success.

If SW:TOR can maintain a 50% retention rate in the long term I feel that financially they are doing ok as long as they can maintain the initial sales.

  Distaste

Advanced Member

Joined: 10/03/06
Posts: 668

1/19/12 2:56:44 PM#75

Who didn't see this coming? Buy stock long before the MMO releases and even before beta is announced, as hype increases so do the expectations(OMG SWTOR will beat Wow!), then wait until near launch or the end of the first month to hold it or sell. By waiting until the end of the first month you will get a clear picture of whether the game is a smash hit or another 3 month and done, unless of course you got strong feelings from beta. Take a look and you'll see that EA's stock peaked right after the Thanksgiving beta weekend with the 2 million signed up for beta, 750k played, etc. That alone might have been enough to tip some investor's hands since it wasn't the 3-4 million people.

The last straw from some investors might have been the luke warm player reception of the game or Biowares bungling of post-launch. So now they are dumping the stock as it doesn't look like EA is going to be raking in cash hand over fist.

 

One thing everyone should watch though is Bioware getting downsized. If investors aren't happy you can bet that Bioware will be slammed with budget cuts and thus will be losing a good portion of their team. The same thing happened with WAR. They will try to be sneaky and call it normal post-launch downsizing. After Feb 1st(conference call) keep a look out for it about a month later.

 

  Shadanwolf

Apprentice Member

Joined: 6/13/10
Posts: 1865

1/19/12 3:03:45 PM#76

I hoped this game would be a success.Heck I even spent $60  for the game. Listening to thousands of voices giving their input on a game is not easy. Knowing your game is not finished and there is nothing for 50 levels to do is something even I can do(yet Biowares high paid decision makers can't).

Knowing RVR on illum isn't finised and playable takes a 3 minute phone call to the team responsible....and it wasen't made...or worse yet the decision maker decided it wasen't important enough to finish at or right after launch.

 

Enough already ............ time to walk away from this incomplete broken  game and look forward.

  Yamota

Elite Member

Joined: 10/05/03
Posts: 6488

"Only cunts name their swords"

1/19/12 3:46:31 PM#77
Originally posted by Shadanwolf

I hoped this game would be a success.Heck I even spent $60  for the game. Listening to thousands of voices giving their input on a game is not easy. Knowing your game is not finished and there is nothing for 50 levels to do is something even I can do(yet Biowares high paid decision makers can't).

Knowing RVR on illum isn't finised and playable takes a 3 minute phone call to the team responsible....and it wasen't made...or worse yet the decision maker decided it wasen't important enough to finish at or right after launch.

 

Enough already ............ time to walk away from this incomplete broken  game and look forward.

Well, I am still enjoying it as a single player game. Not sure for how long though but it is good that some people have noticed the SW:TOR is a subpar MMORPG.

  SpottyGekko

Elite Member

Joined: 9/26/04
Posts: 2718

1/19/12 4:03:24 PM#78

EA still have quite a bit of wiggle room, I think.

 

Q4 closed at end December, so all the goodness of the initial sales rush is in there. Those numbers have yet to be released, and EA will play them for all it's worth.

 

You can expect pretty good numbers for Q4. But of course, "pretty good numbers" mean jack if the expectations were that they were going to be "absolutely staggering numbers". If the market expected 3M total sales, and they sold only 1.5M, they will still get hammered.

 

I'm not sure that they have to divulge any hard numbers regarding SWTOR's performance until the end of the Q1 2012 (i.e. April). So perhaps they have time to plug the holes and bail out the water. Isn't there a major update set for March ? If so, the timing would be just about right.

  tank017

Novice Member

Joined: 7/09/06
Posts: 2206

1/19/12 4:04:03 PM#79
ToR fell well below the hype they created,so it's to be expected.
  namelessbob

Novice Member

Joined: 2/26/04
Posts: 1512

"The internet is a series of tubes."
-Ted Stevens

1/19/12 4:06:18 PM#80

So a broker thinks the game is going to sell far more than EA needs to be successful and then therfor has concerns about it not being successful even though it hits all of EAs numbers and more for it to be a success to them?!!? Seriously confused at what that stock broker was smoking.

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