I'm still predicting 3 million by Jan 20th and 5 million by July..

Reasons:

#1 SWTOR just came out.. 

#2  Most of the market for this game does not use Xfire.

#3 Xfire has proven to be consistently wrong in the past.

#4  Who in the hell actually uses Xfire?  Xfire is bloatware.

Originally posted by Souldrainer

I'm still predicting 3 million by Jan 20th and 5 million by July..

Reasons:

#1 SWTOR just came out.. 

#2  Most of the market for this game does not use Xfire.

#3 Xfire has proven to be consistently wrong in the past.

#4  Who in the hell actually uses Xfire?  Xfire is bloatware.

I dont think your going to be far wrong there . You only really have to look at the new articles on google about ToR to realise this game is a success not seen on a scale in mmos since Warcraft .

Lots of people in these forums live under the delusion that X-fire is still popular . Most gamers these days havn't even heard of it yet alone use it .

I predict millions sell but I also predict only 1 in 3 will subscribe after the first month who bought the game.

Originally posted by Yamota

Originally posted by Lidane

Originally posted by Trixey4795

Just another hater thread served up with an XFire flavour.

Why is it hating to show a link that the game has peaked and is number two in MMORPG rankings?

Because saying the game has peaked at this point is stupid. It just came out 8 days ago, FFS.

Making that kind of definitive statement now is nothing but hate. It has no basis in reality. We won't have a way of knowing how the game is doing until the first free month ends and people actually start getting charged sub fees.

I'm not sure what xfire is btw, i've been playing mmos since Ultima.

Originally posted by alexmino

I'm not sure what xfire is btw, i've been playing mmos since Ultima.

Well, for me, it's mainly a tool that allows me to talk to my friends playing while in game. If one of them is playing modern warfare and im playing swtor, we can still open a window in game and send each other messages. Wich is cool actually.

But apparently this tool also records how many hours you play of any given name and so, many people think they can use it to say if a game is doing well or not. The problem is tha xfire, doesnt even recognize all games, and the ones it does not always record correctly. Not to mention that it is easily fooled, for example, it's known that some games in the past used to tell people on it's main forums to install XFire so they could "help" the game boost its popularity.

Originally posted by tryklon

The problem is tha xfire, doesnt even recognize all games, and the ones it does not always record correctly. Not to mention that it is easily fooled, for example, it's known that some games in the past used to tell people on it's main forums to install XFire so they could "help" the game boost its popularity.

So that makes it highly suspect and unreliable when it comes to numbers, then.

With that in mind, why is anyone supposed to accept it as gospel truth that TOR has peaked after 8 days on the market and will now decline because of the XFire numbers? I haven't seen a good explanation so far in this thread.

Originally posted by Lidane

Originally posted by tryklon

The problem is tha xfire, doesnt even recognize all games, and the ones it does not always record correctly. Not to mention that it is easily fooled, for example, it's known that some games in the past used to tell people on it's main forums to install XFire so they could "help" the game boost its popularity.

So that makes it highly suspect and unreliable when it comes to numbers, then.

With that in mind, why is anyone supposed to accept it as gospel truth that TOR has peaked after 8 days on the market and will now decline because of the XFire numbers? I haven't seen a good explanation so far in this thread.

 

You are right, no one should accept it as truth. Yet, everyday theres stupid threads about it.

For example, I use it as signature simply so people can add me if they want and I can monitor wich games ive played the most, but I have no illusions as to think the whole software can be used as market example

Originally posted by tryklon

Originally posted by Lidane

Originally posted by tryklon

The problem is tha xfire, doesnt even recognize all games, and the ones it does not always record correctly. Not to mention that it is easily fooled, for example, it's known that some games in the past used to tell people on it's main forums to install XFire so they could "help" the game boost its popularity.

So that makes it highly suspect and unreliable when it comes to numbers, then.

With that in mind, why is anyone supposed to accept it as gospel truth that TOR has peaked after 8 days on the market and will now decline because of the XFire numbers? I haven't seen a good explanation so far in this thread.

 

You are right, no one should accept it as truth. Yet, everyday theres stupid threads about it.

 

For example, I use it as signature simply so people can add me if they want and I can monitor wich games ive played the most, but I have no illusions as to think the whole software can be used as market example

You know, you people can rant all you want. The fact is that you CAN use x-fire as a tool to see trends within the x-fire players. All your ranting will not change that.

It can be used the same as any other sampling method. If it is used for what it is exactly, a sample of x-fire players thats it.

Trying to compare it to general or other types of trends or samples means nothing. As a matter of fact, it will be more relevant, as it is used for gaming, than most of the methods some of these supposedly "experts" are trying to refute it with.

As i said earlier, you can try to twist things around. But it is so much hot air.

Use it for what it is. A way to see the trends of x-fire users, thats it. Like it or not, it does that and no huffing or puffing will change that.

Originally posted by Thillian
 

Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

Noone uses it? It says 20.000.000 accounts registered and currently there're 130.000 players online. That IS A GARGANTUAL SAMPLE SIZE, in terms of statistics. This is far more accurate than any "election estimates, which are made on 1.000 sample size". Xfire operates at maybe 0.02% deviation,  it is as accurate as mathematics can be. There might be a discussion about what sort of players tend to use x-fire more often than others, but for what it is, it is extremely accurate.

1. They have 20,000,000 registered accounts, that's nice, they still count mine in there altough I stopped using less than a month after getting it because it sucked next to Ventrilo for in game communication.

2. It is the worst way to track in game population cause on the crapfire site it shows only just under 10000 users per day for TOR. This is only, what maybe 2 servers worth? When there are at least 250,000 in game most likely at any given time. So yea, they are the worst way to track user popoulation.

3. Currently 130,000 players online at the time of your posting from the 8 games in the dropdown menu that I saw. Warcraft alone would have 10 times that many people in game at the time. As stated, not a good way to track population.

4. The only thing X-Fire is good for tracking is it's own users....Not total in game populations as was jmcdermottuk's point.

Not flaming, or trying to start anything. Just needed to correct a couple of things.

Originally posted by DarLorkar

 

You know, you people can rant all you want. The fact is that you CAN use x-fire as a tool to see trends within the x-fire players. All your ranting will not change that.

 

You are 100% correct there, X-Fire can be used as a tool to see trends within the X-Fire players....ONLY. I have been playing MMOs since Meridian59 days, and I have yet to use X-Fire, ever. I know at least 300+ from my guild in WoW that never used it too, and hundreds more from L2, LoTRO, EQ, UO, DAoC, CoX, AoC.....need I go on?? But yes, you are correct, those of you who wish to put tracking software on your PC so you can say you are a part of something, this tool can help track your opinions on games.

But, since this service has never tracked my opinions, its numbers are 100% irrelivant to anything I care about when it comes to MMORPGs. It is 100% useless to me, and many, many others out there. It has no relivance in any way like a politcal poll either. Everyone has a random chance to be involved in a political poll, there for, a sampling of the populace will have a reasonable semblance to the overall opinion. X-Fire, only counts people that sign up for thier service, ONLY they are included. Thier numbers only reflect a sampling of thier selective user base, nothing more.

So yeah, if you want to come out and say 'it appears that 28% of X-fire users like this game', well than you can say that, but you can't come out and say '28% of MMORPG gamers like this game' based off thier numbers.

x-fire is not fair way to measure because only around 10k x-fire users playing the game, and that is out of the over 1 million current sub. That number represents around 1% of the current player base.

Originally posted by Yamota

Originally posted by onthestick

Originally posted by Vhaln

A few days isn't a trend.  I know, we're all dying to say "I told you so!" but really need to wait a month at least, to see any real indication of the game popularity increasing, decreasing, or even leveling off.  Three months to be sure it won't turn around, and six months before it'll really be indisputable.

Really people actually wait for that? makes me just sad thinking about the mentality some people have.

Why? The game is a shallow Themepark and there are a lot of us who are tired of lack of innovation in the genre. A failure on SW:TOR would give a signal to the industry that they cannot copy paste game mechanics and need to start thinking outside of the box.

 and if it succeeds... it will prove that all you need to do is make a good game.

weird how that works huh?

I don't use xfire, neither are we forced to use xfire, so basing a games success on a program which not everyone uses is quite pointless.

Originally posted by tachgb

I don't use xfire, neither are we forced to use xfire, so basing a games success on a program which not everyone uses is quite pointless.

Heh no it is not.

It can be used as one part of a way to determine trends in gaming. I could care less if it is used for SWTOR or WOW or any other game. It is just another piece of data that CAN be used if you do it right.

That has been my point, and the whole point, the whole time:P Because this person uses it and those 2 do not, does not make it better or worse. It is just data, if this week 1k play a game, and 2 weeks later it is 2 k and 4 weeks later it is 5 k, then that is a trend and a piece of data.

It does not represent any thing else, but it does produce some info, like it or not:) Saying YOU do not use it, or know anyone else that does will not change it either:)

Originally posted by tachgb

I don't use xfire, neither are we forced to use xfire, so basing a games success on a program which not everyone uses is quite pointless.

A lot of analytical data only uses a smaller number of people cause either getting the actual info is not possible or cannot be revealed for other purposes. A huge example of this is how we rate and value TV shows. Not everyone who watches the show is actually calculated. It is based on a smaller number of people and multiplied to fit a higher estimated value.

Originally posted by Sector13

Originally posted by tachgb

I don't use xfire, neither are we forced to use xfire, so basing a games success on a program which not everyone uses is quite pointless.

A lot of analytical data only uses a smaller number of people cause either getting the actual info is not possible or cannot be revealed for other purposes. A huge example of this is how we rate and value TV shows. Not everyone who watches the show is actually calculated. It is based on a smaller number of people and multiplied to fit a higher estimated value.

 I've never seen Nielsen use a self selected sample. There's a reason for that.

Originally posted by zymurgeist

Originally posted by Sector13

Originally posted by tachgb

I don't use xfire, neither are we forced to use xfire, so basing a games success on a program which not everyone uses is quite pointless.

A lot of analytical data only uses a smaller number of people cause either getting the actual info is not possible or cannot be revealed for other purposes. A huge example of this is how we rate and value TV shows. Not everyone who watches the show is actually calculated. It is based on a smaller number of people and multiplied to fit a higher estimated value.

 I've never seen Nielsen use a self selected sample. There's a reason for that.

The Nielsen system is also far from perfect. In the end, it is still not 100%. XFire can still be used to get a decent estimation of actvity but it doesn't matter cause no fan would believe it unless it came straight from EA anyway.

Just so you all know

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_standard

A double standard is the unjust application of different sets of principles for similar situations. The concept implies that a single set of principles encompassing all situations (a "single standard") is the desirable ideal.^[1] The term has been used in print since at least 1895.^[2] A double standard may take the form of an instance in which certain concepts (often, for example, a word, phrase, social norm, or rule) are perceived as acceptable to be applied by one group of people, but are considered unacceptable—taboo—when applied by another group

So we use x-fire for how many months to proclaim other games are dying or have peaked, but not TOR?

Originally posted by DarLorkar

Originally posted by tachgb

I don't use xfire, neither are we forced to use xfire, so basing a games success on a program which not everyone uses is quite pointless.

Heh no it is not.

Sure it is.

At least a professional statistical company like NPD uses real numbers from the developers and real, verifiable metrics. XFire is self-selected, since it only uses numbers from people who have it installed, and it can also be manipulated.