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Star Wars: The Old Republic

Star Wars: The Old Republic 

General Discussion  » Let's have it, predictions: launch sales, retention, etc

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196 posts found
  Cameron27

Novice Member

Joined: 9/03/07
Posts: 150

12/10/11 8:19:44 PM#141
Originally posted by Talin

I predict I will eat pie, while playing SWTOR upon launch. I expect my interest in pie will outlast SWTOR in the long run, yet I also expect to enjoy them both for quite a while as long as I don't over consume either one.

 QFT, people who say they aren't going to play because of WoW burnout is like people saying they aren't going to eat apple pie because they've been slamming a cherry pie per day for the last 5 years. Probably shouldn't have slammed so much cherry pie.

"I will not play it nor any other MMO until they make it possible to obtain the best gear without forcing people to group up to do so." SwampRob

  zimboy69

Apprentice Member

Joined: 3/09/08
Posts: 368

12/10/11 8:25:05 PM#142

not bias 

 

every single game that has come out in the last two years  with only one exceptions  has reduced to £15 or less in 6 weeks 

and that one exception  was starcraft 2  which has been around £25 and ive never seen it below that

 

every other game has reduced either  in one day  sale or reduction from various retailors to  £15 or less within 6 weeks

it may only spend a few days at that price and rise but at some point between  release and  6 weeks  it will go below £15

even skyrim can be had  today for £20   its 6 weeks  aren't up untill  about the 20th of dec   so a few weeks and you  will be able to buy it for the majic  £15

 

and  it  will probably reduce because of  STOR

  UtukuMoon

Apprentice Member

Joined: 12/03/11
Posts: 1109

12/10/11 8:27:39 PM#143
Originally posted by Angelfire
Originally posted by CazNeerg

 

Originally posted by VowOfSilence
GW2: TOR loses a lot, because it doesn't have a monthly sub and offers different gameplay.

People who place a high value on gameplay being "different" will probably be in the group that doesn't stay past the first month, they won't be leaving "for" GW2, or waiting for it to come out, they will be leaving because in that respect TOR isn't different, and will do so fairly early.  And they'll probably end up not playing GW2 for long either, since something is only different until you get used to it, so people who like something solely because it is different have a built in limit on their attention spans.

 

And some of us sit in both camps. Me personally I totally intend to play SWTOR.. yes its a bit old fashioned MMO style but the stories kick much ass and I have no doubt I will play all 8 classes just to see all the stories. At the same time I want to see something fresh and new.. however GW2 isn't that in my eyes.. Secret World will be filling that gap nicely for me I think based on whats been released so far. But even when thats released I'll be sticking with SWTOR for a good while.

I believe SWTOR will do well. I wont claim top or best or killer or any of that nonsence but I really believe its gonna be popular even after GW2 and all these other games come out. For starters GWs despite being free to play and blah blah never made to big a dent in the market, and myself as a pretty hardcore MMORPG player absolutely hated it largely because.. its not a MMORPG in my eyes. Its an adventure game with a lobby. It feels like they got rid of most of the MMORPG experience and made one giant dungeon/battleground que. But I say that because a core part of the MMORPG genre to me is a persistant world. When 80% of the content is instanced.. its not really persistant world. But I digress. Just my opinion anyways..

The majority of my friends and extended friends through a number of former guilds and forums all are quite possitive about SWTOR after beta testing and excited.. and I've learned to gauge my opinion of a MMORPGs future by that since as a whole they tend to be right. Usually if they are like 'that looks lame' it usually ends up crapping out no matter how much I like it. Frustrating but so true. So based off this criteria (which is as good as any other predictions right now) .. SWTOR will live on.

For starters GW was not FTP nor is GW2 they are BTP,allods online and rune of magic are FTP.Secondly GW2 is not the same as GWs,GW2 is a full blown MMO.Thirdly ArenaNet have sold Six million units or boxes of GW and its expansion so if that is not a dent then what is.If BioWare sold six million units including any expansion you would not be saying it never made a dent in the market. At least do your homework be for you make comments you obviously no nothing about.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8ymgFyzbDo

  PapaB34R

Novice Member

Joined: 11/15/04
Posts: 306

Never lose your way, or someone else might find it

12/10/11 8:56:19 PM#144

With a budget that superseeds any computer game previously developed its highly unfair to compare SWTOR to Aoc/FF/War/Rift etc, hell I would not even count it to the first version of WoW. Its better, I played them all beta and some of them retail and I can say this, I have never played such a well polished mmo before (in beta/early stage). Its simply superior.

Also to compare it to already released games seem unfair since, well they are at the beginning of their jorney while most of my examples have reached the end of theirs, with WoW being the exception.

Back to the numbers, 3-4mil the first month, itl drop to 80-90% of that within 2 months and perhaps down to 70% by the third month were it will stabilize and then grow, by the first expansion in say one and a half year the game will have 5-6mil players and I believe it will continue like that.

As for upcoming games sucking away its playerbase, gw2 and the rest wont even dent the game to claim such is just funny. Dont get me wrong Il probably gonna pick it up but cmon just like gw its a non-subscription based product that only mmo-players know anything about, it doesnt have the financial muscles to compete with the big brands.

  FrodoFragins

Hard Core Member

Joined: 4/29/10
Posts: 2799

12/10/11 10:21:00 PM#145
Originally posted by CazNeerg
Originally posted by FrodoFragins

Kung Fu Panda will lose WOW subscribers, but GW2 and D3 will impact subscription MMOs.

I could be wrong, obviously, any of us could, but I just don't see GW2 or D3 having any more impact than any other non-sub game would have.  How many people, when they are only subbed to one game, cancel that sub every time they feel like spending any amount of time playing a non-sub game?

I can see losing people to the Secret World, but other than that...

I plan on dedicating at least 3 months to D3 and GW2 and probably much more.  When I play those games I will not be subscribing to any MMOs.  When I play a subscription MMO that's pretty much the only game I play until I decide to take a break.

 

I want to support GW2 by also not supporting any other MMOs.  D3 is simply highly anticpated and will be my new Blizzard go to title until they fix WOW after MoP which is too deep in development to fix things.

  FrodoFragins

Hard Core Member

Joined: 4/29/10
Posts: 2799

12/10/11 10:26:16 PM#146
Originally posted by madjonNZ

3 million at launch - first month.   Asia - big unknown for sales and pricing.

5 million at 3 months ( 70% retention on original players but gaining new players through delayed releases and word of mouth, advertising).   Asia - big unknown for sales and pricing.

6 million at 6 months - peaking population, active subs continue playing through Alt stroylines.

If an expansion or patch with credible content that matches *popular feedback is announced to launch within 6 months  then continued subs at around 6 million. 

 

*Expanded space combat with heavy multiplayer involvment,   Swoop/pod crafting / racing / crowd watching, Cantina sports. IMO these additions have a playable lifetime far exceeding added dungeons in regards to development time.

6 million in US and Europe mainly seems impossible to me.  They won't be close to WOW numbers until TOR is all over Asia, but even then it's unlikely to happen.

  FrodoFragins

Hard Core Member

Joined: 4/29/10
Posts: 2799

12/10/11 10:27:39 PM#147
Originally posted by CazNeerg

 

Originally posted by VowOfSilence
GW2: TOR loses a lot, because it doesn't have a monthly sub and offers different gameplay.

People who place a high value on gameplay being "different" will probably be in the group that doesn't stay past the first month, they won't be leaving "for" GW2, or waiting for it to come out, they will be leaving because in that respect TOR isn't different, and will do so fairly early.  And they'll probably end up not playing GW2 for long either, since something is only different until you get used to it, so people who like something solely because it is different have a built in limit on their attention spans.

A fair number of people bought Rift as a placeholder until TOR or GW2 comes out.

  User Deleted
12/10/11 10:28:06 PM#148

It will peak at 5 mil and retain 2 mil for the long haul

  xincable

Apprentice Member

Joined: 12/10/11
Posts: 1

12/10/11 10:29:09 PM#149

The game will do extremely well the first year. You're looking at a possibility of somewhere between 500 and 1000 units per metropolitan square sold pre-launch, with a retention rate of 57.6% within the first quarter. Factoring in inflation as well as a slow pit of spring sales, the game will still bolster an impressive 65-75 % sale maintenance at least until the third quarter ends. Then there's the 2012 Christmas sales, which will help push the game along into yet another year. Those sales will also be boosted by the release of an expansion pack of some sort... something to maintain the hardcore gamers while tempting newbies with a flashy new feature... so probably playable Ewoks or something like that. 2013 is the real question. Personally, I don't think they'll stand a chance after the Harry Potter MMO gets released. But they've still got a fighting chance so I won't rule it out just yet.

  jmcdermottuk

Advanced Member

Joined: 6/10/06
Posts: 918

12/10/11 10:31:50 PM#150

I don't get why people keep saying GW2 is going to steal subs from this or that game. It's got no monthly sub so why can't you just play it in addition to a subscription game? It's like 2 for the price of 1.

  slickbizzle

Apprentice Member

Joined: 9/28/11
Posts: 464

12/10/11 10:34:20 PM#151
Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

I don't get why people keep saying GW2 is going to steal subs from this or that game. It's got no monthly sub so why can't you just play it in addition to a subscription game? It's like 2 for the price of 1.

 

Maybe because a lot of people don't have time in their lives to actively play 2 MMO's.  If I  invest my time in GW2, then why would I keep paying a sub to another game I don't play?

  zephar123

Apprentice Member

Joined: 5/07/06
Posts: 70

12/10/11 10:34:43 PM#152
Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

I don't get why people keep saying GW2 is going to steal subs from this or that game. It's got no monthly sub so why can't you just play it in addition to a subscription game? It's like 2 for the price of 1.

the people saying this are people that will not subb a game period. I played GW and it was not MMO mroe of peer to peer game . so of course it was freee and I suspect not much mroe of gw2 no matter what they claim .

  drake201

Apprentice Member

Joined: 1/08/09
Posts: 80

12/10/11 10:40:35 PM#153

Ill play Swtor for its pve story experience and on offtime ill do pvp in guild wars.

  User Deleted
12/10/11 10:55:48 PM#154

One million first year subs.

320,000 by beginning of next year.

 

 

  User Deleted
12/10/11 10:59:17 PM#155
Originally posted by zephar123
Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

I don't get why people keep saying GW2 is going to steal subs from this or that game. It's got no monthly sub so why can't you just play it in addition to a subscription game? It's like 2 for the price of 1.

the people saying this are people that will not subb a game period. I played GW and it was not MMO mroe of peer to peer game . so of course it was freee and I suspect not much mroe of gw2 no matter what they claim .

Well this is sort of OFF topic and also untrue. GW was,is untraditional but is an mmorpg. GW2 however is fully seemless so that arguement holds no weight anymore. also its not the it's the first mmorpg to not have a monthly sub fee. To use that as a stipulation would be foolish. TOR better have some serious pve muscle there in no way it competes on a PVP scale with GW2, thats just a fact.

  User Deleted
12/10/11 11:03:47 PM#156

People forget that a majority of 30+ years of age gamers grew up in the era of Star Wars, that in itself has my family all rolling SWTOR accounts, wife and two kids age 16 and 14 who caught on to Star Wars from me.

 

How many other "kid" gamers are following the force of their parents exposing them to Star Wars?

 

That is the question.

  echolynfan

Hard Core Member

Joined: 1/26/10
Posts: 728

I ain't got a gat but I gotta soldering gun

12/10/11 11:09:42 PM#157
Originally posted by AdamTM

 

Prediction

 

Sales:

Launch box/digital-sales in the first week (including pre-orders): ~3-4 Million

 

Subscription retention rates (from initial sales, numbers at the -end- of each month):

1. Month: 80-90%

2. Month: 50-60%

3. Month: 30-40%

4. Month: below 30%

+6. Month: ~15%

 

Free To Play prediction:

Month 12-14 from launch


F2P will NEVER happen. SWTOR will have a Wow-like success and if Bioware puts out new content quickly (especially space combat) it will rocket right ahead. This isn't just another AAA MMO coming out - this is Star Wars and the fact that SWG has lasted this long as a P2P model is proof of the power of the SW IP.

Your retention numbers are skewed low and you will be proved wrong.

Currently playing SWTOR and it's MUCH better than it was at launch.

  kalinis

Apprentice Member

Joined: 8/11/10
Posts: 1444

12/10/11 11:21:55 PM#158

Anyone saying 1 million subs first year 320,000 after doestn have a clue. Im sorry its just uninformed they have 1 mill box sales in us alone. Thats not counting europe box sales or digital sales. so they are gonna sell over 4 million copies by launch day.

In those 2 regions. People in other regions are pre ordering to play in there countries also. I gaurantee people in australia arent waiting for it to come there as release to buy it. 

that said tor will maintain at least 80 pct of it splayer base. Because its starwars. Its bioware story and the players i talked to in beta all wanted to play all the classes. Not just one.

So yea go ahead underestimate the replayablility of tor not to mention bioware is already hard at work on new content. 

If bioware puts otu content on a 2 month schedule for the first year they may lose 2-3 pt of there sub base but thats it. 

Truth is this game is gonna do so much better then those sayign free 2 play and 320 subs affter a yr realize

They underestimate how many non mmo gamers re coming into the mmos for tor. Or how many star wars, and biowre fans there are out there.

Oh ill buy mass effect 3 and play it and tor. U know sometimes i need time off from my mmos never more then a day or so but during that time i play my console. I can also play my console when i let my nephews on my computer or share it with others. 

Sometimes ill play my console to wait for my gf to get done her facebook crap so we can level together. 

so people buy console games and play mmos and dont stop subbing for that. I dont see anyone dropping a sub to tor for any bioware single player game. 

Taht said to many understimate the power of the star wars ip on this forum just cause they dont liek the game its why they are wrong also.l

  ZizouX

Advanced Member

Joined: 5/17/11
Posts: 675

12/10/11 11:33:13 PM#159
Originally posted by xincable

The game will do extremely well the first year. You're looking at a possibility of somewhere between 500 and 1000 units per metropolitan square sold pre-launch, with a retention rate of 57.6% within the first quarter. Factoring in inflation as well as a slow pit of spring sales, the game will still bolster an impressive 65-75 % sale maintenance at least until the third quarter ends. Then there's the 2012 Christmas sales, which will help push the game along into yet another year. Those sales will also be boosted by the release of an expansion pack of some sort... something to maintain the hardcore gamers while tempting newbies with a flashy new feature... so probably playable Ewoks or something like that. 2013 is the real question. Personally, I don't think they'll stand a chance after the Harry Potter MMO gets released. But they've still got a fighting chance so I won't rule it out just yet.

I am fascinated by this analysis.... especially more so given the post count by the author... I'm not be sarcastic of facitiious, but this analysis seems to have some "insider" knowledge or you're a market analyst in this area of the market (gaming).

 

As for me, I played Sith Warrior to 11, knowing fully well I was going to be Repubic side for launch, so I didn't want to spoil the story.  For the first beta I was invited to, 2 months ago, I played for 10 minutes... said it was a WoW clone with slightly better graphics and a worse Ui.

 

Fast forward to two weeks ago.  I played the game on max settings after getting a new graphics card.  I actually played the story at my own pace.... LOVED IT.  Brought me back to the days of Koto 1 and 2... Kotor 1 being one of my favorite games of all time.

 

For someone like me... a midcore (not casual not hardcore) the story content ALONE will sustain me for a VERY LONG time.  On weekends I can do group oriented and pvp stuff....

 

Long story short.....

 

First month 2-2.5 million

First 6 months 50% retention at 1 million + continuing box sales ~1.5 million total.

After one year.... stabolizes at 1 million subs, depending on the rate and QUALITY of the content.  If they add only raid content where someone like me won't be utilizing... then it will severly hurt the casual player base.  IF they ad more and more (sidequests/story content) the game can survive.

 

Most people on these forums are hardcore players.  You are the minority.  The success of SWTOR is dependent on the casual, constantly churning player bases alla WoW.

 

And for those of you predicting Fremium or F2P, in a year... you're delusional.  Any objective analysis will show F2P, if at all, at least 2-3 years from release.  I believe, however, that it will not go F2P at all, and if it does, it will be like WoW, where the first 20 levels are free.  That would be a sign of immense success NOT failure.

  Distaste

Advanced Member

Joined: 10/03/06
Posts: 668

12/10/11 11:36:07 PM#160
Originally posted by Happyguy83
Originally posted by Humphrie

 

By all accounts, TOR has nothing that really qualifies as an endgame by modern MMO standards, and the predictions of '200 hours to the cap' are way, way off. \

Its actually closer to 150-175, Assuming you craft and do a little PvP then yes 200 is actually rather close.

Yes Because raiding, end game OWPvP, FFA PvP and an end-game solo planet is not up to mmo standards.

 

No it isn't. I did 1-50 in just under 70 hours including warzones, space combat, and spending a lot of time searching for heroic/flaspoint groups. Even with watching all of the cutscenes you're going to need to PvP for 80-100 more hours to hit 200 hours and the xp you get from it will still get you to 50 before you're close to 200 hours. Unless you spend 15-20 hours per planet(normally takes ~6 for most planets), which means 9-14 in exploring,  I just dont' see people hitting 200 hours. 

Btw the end game OWPvP is a joke, FFA PvP is also a joke just like the OWPvP objectives and arena's in WoW. The end-game solo planet is just a small quest hub, you can finish it in a day(did they fix the rewards for those quests yet? Because there was zero reason to do them last time I was at 50). I'm not saying what's there doesn't qualify as an endgame but besides raiding the rest is about a day's worth a fun before it is completely ignored by 90% of players. The raiding will get boring quickly, especially since lazy Bioware has decided to reuse everything again and again.

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