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Star Wars: The Old Republic

Star Wars: The Old Republic 

General Discussion  » Let's have it, predictions: launch sales, retention, etc

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196 posts found
  Blackrayn

Novice Member

Joined: 3/02/04
Posts: 145

12/10/11 9:59:26 AM#21

 

 1.  2.5-3 million sales from launch to first month.

 2.  3rd month mark, holding 3 million active subs

 3.  1st year tops out with 4-4.5 mill subs

 4. 2nd year ends with 5 mill subs and at that time is equal with WoW in subs and just ahead of GW2 by a million or so subs.

 5. From the end of GW2's second year and ToR's third year. Is where they both eclipse WoW in subs and blizzard restructures payment plan to F2P.

  SuprGamerX

Apprentice Member

Joined: 1/05/09
Posts: 538

12/10/11 10:01:49 AM#22

Heh ,predictions on a game that had ALOT of cancelled pre orders?

 One's thing for sure , SWtor won't have anything near what Skyrim had.   And Skyrim ain't even multiplayer (yet).

So yeah , I'm not expecting SWtor to be sold out on release , or ever in that matter.

For Skyrim I had to wander around a few hours to get myself a copy.

 SWtor , like Diablo 3 , took way to long to release , was announced way to early , hype was lost on these games years ago , people have moved on. Sure people will try them out , but will very likely stop after a month or two. 

 When I view a trailer on any sort of MMO , it's to give me a idea and then I play it , but after 14 years of doing so , I can already know how the game will shape up and be like after a few hours of game play. And besides light sabers and some bobafetts , SWtor doesn't shine in any perticular area out of every other MMO released before it.   IF it were me , I would of made like CCP that will be adding Dust 514 onto EVE-Online , what I mean is that they should of kept Galaxies up and put SWtor ontop of it , NOW that would of been freaking kick ass. But no , narrow headed companies don't think outside the box. At least we still got CCP and thank God for that!!!

  A.Blackloch

Apprentice Member

Joined: 10/21/07
Posts: 837

"Choke on the smoke from my quill."

12/10/11 10:02:44 AM#23
Originally posted by Sephros

Fifty Billionty

Aww snap! That was my guestimation too!

  onthestick

Apprentice Member

Joined: 12/06/11
Posts: 647

12/10/11 10:03:26 AM#24
Originally posted by SuprGamerX

Heh ,predictions on a game that had ALOT of cancelled pre orders?

 One's thing for sure , SWtor won't have anything near what Skyrim had.   And Skyrim ain't even multiplayer (yet).

So yeah , I'm not expecting SWtor to be sold out on release , or ever in that matter.

 

Woot? o.O, got a link or something if i missed that news? by the way Skyrim was released on console and pc both so ofcourse SWTOR can not break Skyrim's record.

How many servers SWTOR will launch with on release?

ShredderSE - Umm how many do they need? Maybe 6.
US, EU, Asian, France, German and Russian.
Subs will be so low there is no need for more
Snoocky-How many servers?
The first 3 months a lot...after that 2 i guess, one for PVE and 1 for PVP...

Thorbrand - SWTOR doesn't have longevity at all. Might be one of the shortest lived MMOs.

  niceguy3978

Elite Member

Joined: 6/14/06
Posts: 1987

12/10/11 10:05:20 AM#25
Originally posted by SuprGamerX

Heh ,predictions on a game that had ALOT of cancelled pre orders?

 One's thing for sure , SWtor won't have anything near what Skyrim had.   And Skyrim ain't even multiplayer (yet).

So yeah , I'm not expecting SWtor to be sold out on release , or ever in that matter.

For Skyrim I had to wander around a few hours to get myself a copy.

 SWtor , like Diablo 3 , took way to long to release , was announced way to early , hype was lost on these games years ago , people have moved on. Sure people will try them out , but will very likely stop after a month or two. 

 When I view a trailer on any sort of MMO , it's to give me a idea and then I play it , but after 14 years of doing so , I can already know how the game will shape up and be like after a few hours of game play. And besides light sabers and some bobafetts , SWtor doesn't shine in any perticular area out of every other MMO released before it.   IF it were me , I would of made like CCP that will be adding Dust 514 onto EVE-Online , what I mean is that they should of kept Galaxies up and put SWtor ontop of it , NOW that would of been freaking kick ass. But no , narrow headed companies don't think outside the box. At least we still got CCP and thank God for that!!!

Skyrim sold 3.5 million copies in its first 48 hours.  I'm sure that SWTOR won't sell that many copies either, I am pretty sure, however, that if it were to launch on the XBOX 360 and PS3 in addition to the PC it would have sold alot more than that, but since it is a pc only title, I will say that it will sell alot more copies on the PC than Skyrim did.

  Lobotomist

Hard Core Member

Joined: 5/20/07
Posts: 4794

I got so much trouble on my mind Refuse to lose.

12/10/11 10:05:24 AM#26
Originally posted by AdamTM

 

Prediction

 

Sales:

Launch box/digital-sales in the first week (including pre-orders): ~3-4 Million

 

Subscription retention rates (from initial sales, numbers at the -end- of each month):

1. Month: 80-90%

2. Month: 50-60%

3. Month: 30-40%

4. Month: below 30%

+6. Month: ~15%

 

Free To Play prediction:

Month 12-14 from launch

 

Quite similar to my predicitons (that i dont care to repeat)

I am also suprised by hype EA managed to cook up. But i would not put the initial sales (in the west) above 2 maximum 3 millions.

Probably 2.5 mil. initial players , or less.

 

As for player decline. I predict there is going to be major expansion ( payed , yes sorry subscription payers )

The expansion will be timed with release of GW2. And its going to bring back lot of players for short time.

But that will be last straw for P2P. F2P will be soon to follow around spring 2013.

 

  Neloth

Novice Member

Joined: 11/24/05
Posts: 254

12/10/11 10:10:41 AM#27

Launch sales: 2-3 million

3rd month: 3-5 million

6th month: 3-7 million

12+ month too hard to say since it depends on how BW react to patches, expansions and improving the game, but I'd say somewhere around 4-7m

Further I'd say 1-4 million would come from WoW

Almost zero percent chance of going F2P, maybe a P2P/F2P hybrid if a new game changer comes into play (like Titan or some unknown and no that is not GW2) that forces BW to re-evaluate their income model.

  alancode

Novice Member

Joined: 9/20/10
Posts: 137

12/10/11 10:10:45 AM#28
Originally posted by AdamTM
Originally posted by alancode
Originally posted by AdamTM

 

Prediction

 

Sales:

Launch box/digital-sales in the first week (including pre-orders): ~3-4 Million

 

Subscription retention rates (from initial sales, numbers at the -end- of each month):

1. Month: 80-90%

2. Month: 50-60%

3. Month: 30-40%

4. Month: below 30%

 

Free To Play prediction:

Month 12-14 from launch

 

 

Rofl what kinda games do people on these forums play? Runescape? 

Whats your problem?

It will not go FTP lol. 

(-_-)

  MMO.Maverick

Inquisitor

Joined: 3/05/10
Posts: 7792

The middle road is the place to be!

 
OP  12/10/11 10:11:01 AM#29
Originally posted by SuprGamerX

Heh ,predictions on a game that had ALOT of cancelled pre orders?

 One's thing for sure , SWtor won't have anything near what Skyrim had.   And Skyrim ain't even multiplayer (yet).

Lol, MW3 had 10 million sales, BF3 5 million sales, that's the kind of numbers successful singleplayer games are throwing around especially if they're on multiple platforms.

MMORPG's have almost never reached even 1 million within the first month after launch, so what you're saying, comparing MMO sales with singlerplayer game sales, is like saying 'the sky is blue',  well, duh

 

edit: I hadn't expected the thread to grow this fast, nice one, I see some good, solid predictions of all kinds

The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  caremuchless

Apprentice Member

Joined: 3/19/11
Posts: 597

Whether you believe you can or believe you cannot, you are right.

12/10/11 10:13:14 AM#30
Originally posted by Lobotomist
Originally posted by AdamTM

 

Prediction

 

Sales:

Launch box/digital-sales in the first week (including pre-orders): ~3-4 Million

 

Subscription retention rates (from initial sales, numbers at the -end- of each month):

1. Month: 80-90%

2. Month: 50-60%

3. Month: 30-40%

4. Month: below 30%

+6. Month: ~15%

 

Free To Play prediction:

Month 12-14 from launch

 

Quite similar to my predicitons (that i dont care to repeat)

I am also suprised by hype EA managed to cook up. But i would not put the initial sales (in the west) above 2 maximum 3 millions.

Probably 2.5 mil. initial players , or less.

 

As for player decline. I predict there is going to be major expansion ( payed , yes sorry subscription payers )

The expansion will be timed with release of GW2. And its going to bring back lot of players for short time.

But that will be last straw for P2P. F2P will be soon to follow around spring 2013.

 

 

A major expansion timed to release when GW2 releases?  So within 6 months of SWTOR releasing, you think they will release an expansion? HIGHLY doubtful.

 

Another guy on here talking about all the raid content they are building. I can see them creating raid content. However, they will not, be creating raid content AND, ALSO, ON TOP OF, IN ADDITION TO  add a paid for expansion.

 

Not going to happen.

 

F2P? I don't see that happening either.

  NovaKayne

Novice Member

Joined: 3/04/04
Posts: 748

That is just my opion and we all know what THAT is good for!

12/10/11 10:15:17 AM#31

I predict I will buy it and play it until it is no longer any fun.

 

Say hello, To the things you've left behind. They are more a part of your life now that you can't touch them.

  AdamTM

Novice Member

Joined: 5/05/05
Posts: 1395

I'M PUNCHING YOUR SALAD!!!!

12/10/11 10:15:26 AM#32
Originally posted by alancode
Originally posted by AdamTM
Originally posted by alancode
Originally posted by AdamTM

 

Prediction

 

Sales:

Launch box/digital-sales in the first week (including pre-orders): ~3-4 Million

 

Subscription retention rates (from initial sales, numbers at the -end- of each month):

1. Month: 80-90%

2. Month: 50-60%

3. Month: 30-40%

4. Month: below 30%

 

Free To Play prediction:

Month 12-14 from launch

 

 

Rofl what kinda games do people on these forums play? Runescape? 

Whats your problem?

It will not go FTP lol. 

Seeing as almost every MMORPG of the past went F2P recently, strong words.

  onthestick

Apprentice Member

Joined: 12/06/11
Posts: 647

12/10/11 10:16:34 AM#33
Originally posted by Lobotomist
Originally posted by AdamTM

 

Prediction

 

Sales:

Launch box/digital-sales in the first week (including pre-orders): ~3-4 Million

 

Subscription retention rates (from initial sales, numbers at the -end- of each month):

1. Month: 80-90%

2. Month: 50-60%

3. Month: 30-40%

4. Month: below 30%

+6. Month: ~15%

 

Free To Play prediction:

Month 12-14 from launch

 

Quite similar to my predicitons (that i dont care to repeat)

I am also suprised by hype EA managed to cook up. But i would not put the initial sales (in the west) above 2 maximum 3 millions.

Probably 2.5 mil. initial players , or less.

 

As for player decline. I predict there is going to be major expansion ( payed , yes sorry subscription payers )

The expansion will be timed with release of GW2. And its going to bring back lot of players for short time.

But that will be last straw for P2P. F2P will be soon to follow around spring 2013.

 

Don't feel sorry for me bub, i don't expect major expansions for free.

How many servers SWTOR will launch with on release?

ShredderSE - Umm how many do they need? Maybe 6.
US, EU, Asian, France, German and Russian.
Subs will be so low there is no need for more
Snoocky-How many servers?
The first 3 months a lot...after that 2 i guess, one for PVE and 1 for PVP...

Thorbrand - SWTOR doesn't have longevity at all. Might be one of the shortest lived MMOs.

  caremuchless

Apprentice Member

Joined: 3/19/11
Posts: 597

Whether you believe you can or believe you cannot, you are right.

12/10/11 10:17:23 AM#34
Originally posted by Neloth

Launch sales: 2-3 million

3rd month: 3-5 million

6th month: 3-7 million

12+ month too hard to say since it depends on how BW react to patches, expansions and improving the game, but I'd say somewhere around 4-7m

Further I'd say 1-4 million would come from WoW

Almost zero percent chance of going F2P, maybe a P2P/F2P hybrid if a new game changer comes into play (like Titan or some unknown and no that is not GW2) that forces BW to re-evaluate their income model.

Highly optimistic much? 

 

Your numbers are absolutely ridiculous.

 

GW2 is a game changer if you are referring to actually doing something new /cough UNLIKE the game we are discussing now.

 

 

  MMO.Maverick

Inquisitor

Joined: 3/05/10
Posts: 7792

The middle road is the place to be!

 
OP  12/10/11 10:17:33 AM#35
Originally posted by Lobotomist
Originally posted by AdamTM

 

Prediction

 

Sales:

Launch box/digital-sales in the first week (including pre-orders): ~3-4 Million

 

Subscription retention rates (from initial sales, numbers at the -end- of each month):

1. Month: 80-90%

2. Month: 50-60%

3. Month: 30-40%

4. Month: below 30%

+6. Month: ~15%

 

Free To Play prediction:

Month 12-14 from launch

 Quite similar to my predicitons (that i dont care to repeat)

Aaw, no need, I found them and will add them here for completion, you're welcome

 

Originally posted by Lobotomist

Here is just how i think things will roll out for SWTOR in its first year. Or at least how EA would maximize profits and keep SWTOR alive and thiriving.

Month 1-3 : 1 million subs.
Month 3-6 : 300 thousand subs.
(GW2, D3 launches)
Month 6-9: Expansion launched , subs on slight rise
Month 10-12 : F2P announced , subs on all time low
1 year : SWTOR goes F2P

Originally posted by Lobotomist
Originally posted by onthestick

EA will go bankrupt after SWTOR? come on man seriously.

 They invested so much, there is always the possibility.

Someone here said the initial sales will cover the investment. I doubt it.

But i am almost sure they will not turn any serious profit on it.

After they cover the initial investment and pay off Lucas farm - the game will be well past its first 6 months and declining due to launch of GW 2 and Diablo 3

 

The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  caremuchless

Apprentice Member

Joined: 3/19/11
Posts: 597

Whether you believe you can or believe you cannot, you are right.

12/10/11 10:19:33 AM#36
Originally posted by AdamTM
Originally posted by alancode
Originally posted by AdamTM
Originally posted by alancode
Originally posted by AdamTM

 

Prediction

 

Sales:

Launch box/digital-sales in the first week (including pre-orders): ~3-4 Million

 

Subscription retention rates (from initial sales, numbers at the -end- of each month):

1. Month: 80-90%

2. Month: 50-60%

3. Month: 30-40%

4. Month: below 30%

 

Free To Play prediction:

Month 12-14 from launch

 

 

Rofl what kinda games do people on these forums play? Runescape? 

Whats your problem?

It will not go FTP lol. 

Seeing as almost every MMORPG of the past went F2P recently, strong words.

But not within a year of releasing.

Is AION F2P?  Is Rift F2P?

How long did it take for LOTR and AOC to go F2P?

  MMO.Maverick

Inquisitor

Joined: 3/05/10
Posts: 7792

The middle road is the place to be!

 
OP  12/10/11 10:19:34 AM#37
Originally posted by AdamTM
Originally posted by alancode

It will not go FTP lol. 

Seeing as almost every MMORPG of the past went F2P recently, strong words.

Well, none of the AAA MMO's went F2P within a year, so that is counter the state of affairs so far, but no matter, I asked for concrete predictions and you gave one, so that was a good post in my books, thanks.

The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  onthestick

Apprentice Member

Joined: 12/06/11
Posts: 647

12/10/11 10:20:13 AM#38
Originally posted by caremuchless
 

Highly optimistic much? 

 

Your numbers are absolutely ridiculous.

 

GW2 is a game changer if you are referring to actually doing something new /cough UNLIKE the game we are discussing now.

 

 

So you only have the right to be optimsitic about GW2?  i am very excited about GW2 but even i don't make any assumptions till i get my hands on the game and actually get to play it. SWTOR is also doing some things new but i do not expect biased eyes to see that.

How many servers SWTOR will launch with on release?

ShredderSE - Umm how many do they need? Maybe 6.
US, EU, Asian, France, German and Russian.
Subs will be so low there is no need for more
Snoocky-How many servers?
The first 3 months a lot...after that 2 i guess, one for PVE and 1 for PVP...

Thorbrand - SWTOR doesn't have longevity at all. Might be one of the shortest lived MMOs.

  onthestick

Apprentice Member

Joined: 12/06/11
Posts: 647

12/10/11 10:23:50 AM#39
Originally posted by AdamTM
 

Seeing as almost every MMORPG of the past went F2P recently, strong words.

Aion stil P2P, Rift still P2P, WAR still P2P... all other mmos went F2P after how many years? there is difference bewteen MMOS like LOTRO, EQ2 etc going F2P recently and SWTOR going F2P in first year.

How many servers SWTOR will launch with on release?

ShredderSE - Umm how many do they need? Maybe 6.
US, EU, Asian, France, German and Russian.
Subs will be so low there is no need for more
Snoocky-How many servers?
The first 3 months a lot...after that 2 i guess, one for PVE and 1 for PVP...

Thorbrand - SWTOR doesn't have longevity at all. Might be one of the shortest lived MMOs.

  BarryManilow

Novice Member

Joined: 10/26/04
Posts: 710

12/10/11 10:24:21 AM#40
Originally posted by Z3R01

Once people exhaust the storyline content the game is going to take a massive nose dive.

6-8 months and we will all have our own "TOR simply wasn't a good MMO" Stories.

You can say that about any MMO, if there are no major content added.  Which you seem to be assuming.  There are big plans for this game in the future. 

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