Originally posted by Silax

Originally posted by Nadia

Originally posted by OkhamsRazor

Ok my bets is that it will  between 1-3 million players by the end of January .

even wow took 4 months to hit 1.5 million

http://www.gamershell.com/companies/blizzard_entertainment/219363.html

With 12 weeks to go, they are already on a trajectory to get over a million retail sales.

http://www.vgchartz.com/preorders.php

there are some people buying the preorders just to try the game

- and will cancel the preorder if they dont like what they see

for Age of Conan, CE was sold out prelaunch

but once people saw the game in early access most of those were cancelled/returned

http://www.funcom.com/news/age_of_conan_collectors_edition_completely_sold_out

I think SWTOR will do better than WOW launch,

on the simple fact that theres more mmo players than ever before in history

Bottom line is, the game is decent. Nothing that makes me go "wow" though. It'll have a ridiculous number of players at start and will lose half of those after 3-6 months. Such is the state of current MMO's.

If people are expecting millions of subs and climbing after those 6 months, it's not going to happen and i don't think it's ever going to happen again.

I'm a believer of the Huge Success.

The game offers a very well made product of the theme park genre, with enough innovations to make it feel very unique on it's own kind.

Add to that all the posibilities the game has for expansions in every direction. Space combat and a bit more sandboxy experience from the top of my mind (that is the 2 more desired by players).

I hate to say it, but I think that no game will ever reach the "11M+" subs WoW had because WoW was the comercial item that put the MMO genre on the map (imho), it was "the first of the new generation of themepark mmo" (i know there were DAoC and EQ and others before it, but you know what I mean). That being said, i do see something above the 5M subs in the future.

Originally posted by Nadia

Originally posted by Silax

Originally posted by Nadia

Originally posted by OkhamsRazor

Ok my bets is that it will  between 1-3 million players by the end of January .

even wow took 4 months to hit 1.5 million

http://www.gamershell.com/companies/blizzard_entertainment/219363.html

With 12 weeks to go, they are already on a trajectory to get over a million retail sales.

http://www.vgchartz.com/preorders.php

there are some people buying the preorders just to try the game

- and will cancel the preorder if they dont like what they see

 

for Age of Conan, CE was sold out prelaunch

but once people saw the game in early access most of those were returned

http://www.funcom.com/news/age_of_conan_collectors_edition_completely_sold_out

 

I think SWTOR will do better than WOW launch,

on the simple fact that theres more mmo players than ever before in history

Perhaps, but I think that will be a small percentage.  In relative terms, if you have 1 million preorders, and 10,000 decide to cancel their preorder based off of a few days of early access gameplay, that is still a considerable success.

Regarding SWTOR at launch, one thing to keep in mind is that it is still only 12 months to launch and they have yet to fully roll out their advertising.  No TV slots, etc.  So unless, they feel that they can reach their preorder limit well in advance of launch day, we can safely expect their to be an even bigger marketing campaign.

You don't spend a ton of money making a game only to forget your marketing ahead of the biggest shopping season of the year.

TOR, GW2, Archeage............ One of them will do well lol. Im starting to swing more towards archeage as long as its not a f2p cash shop bs game near the release. But I will play TOR, think it will do well. WOW can keep its immature pimple faced pre-teens. Long as the community for TOR are good ill be happy with regular added content of course.

I dont even see how or why WOW is so popular, it sucked and the nerdraged kiddies made for a horrible community.

Originally posted by Silax

Originally posted by Nadia

Originally posted by Silax

Originally posted by Nadia

Originally posted by OkhamsRazor

Ok my bets is that it will  between 1-3 million players by the end of January .

even wow took 4 months to hit 1.5 million

http://www.gamershell.com/companies/blizzard_entertainment/219363.html

With 12 weeks to go, they are already on a trajectory to get over a million retail sales.

http://www.vgchartz.com/preorders.php

there are some people buying the preorders just to try the game

- and will cancel the preorder if they dont like what they see

 

for Age of Conan, CE was sold out prelaunch

but once people saw the game in early access most of those were returned

http://www.funcom.com/news/age_of_conan_collectors_edition_completely_sold_out

 

I think SWTOR will do better than WOW launch,

on the simple fact that theres more mmo players than ever before in history

Perhaps, but I think that will be a small percentage.  In relative terms, if you have 1 million preorders, and 10,000 decide to cancel their preorder based off of a few days of early access gameplay, that is still a considerable success.

Regarding SWTOR at launch, one thing to keep in mind is that it is still only 12 months to launch and they have yet to fully roll out their advertising.  No TV slots, etc.  So unless, they feel that they can reach their preorder limit well in advance of launch day, we can safely expect their to be an even bigger marketing campaign.

You don't spend a ton of money making a game only to forget your marketing ahead of the biggest shopping season of the year.

I bet you intended "weeks" :)

Anyway, I am curious about their advertising strategy. The more popularity the better I suppose, from their point of view, but it would be kind of painful to see a very expensive, media wide campaign end up in flooded servers with queue's and crashes at launch. (Start up issues like that are hard to rule out entirely). Perhaps they opt to thow money at advertising after launch and try to grow more steadily instead; a bit like WOW grew over the years.

Originally posted by DarkPony

Originally posted by Silax

Originally posted by Nadia

Originally posted by Silax

Originally posted by Nadia

Originally posted by OkhamsRazor

Ok my bets is that it will  between 1-3 million players by the end of January .

even wow took 4 months to hit 1.5 million

http://www.gamershell.com/companies/blizzard_entertainment/219363.html

With 12 weeks to go, they are already on a trajectory to get over a million retail sales.

http://www.vgchartz.com/preorders.php

there are some people buying the preorders just to try the game

- and will cancel the preorder if they dont like what they see

 

for Age of Conan, CE was sold out prelaunch

but once people saw the game in early access most of those were returned

http://www.funcom.com/news/age_of_conan_collectors_edition_completely_sold_out

 

I think SWTOR will do better than WOW launch,

on the simple fact that theres more mmo players than ever before in history

Perhaps, but I think that will be a small percentage.  In relative terms, if you have 1 million preorders, and 10,000 decide to cancel their preorder based off of a few days of early access gameplay, that is still a considerable success.

Regarding SWTOR at launch, one thing to keep in mind is that it is still only 12 months to launch and they have yet to fully roll out their advertising.  No TV slots, etc.  So unless, they feel that they can reach their preorder limit well in advance of launch day, we can safely expect their to be an even bigger marketing campaign.

You don't spend a ton of money making a game only to forget your marketing ahead of the biggest shopping season of the year.

I bet you intended "weeks" :)

Anyway, I am curious about their advertising strategy. The more popularity the better I suppose, from their point of view, but it would be kind of painful to see a very expensive, media wide campaign end up in flooded servers with queue's and crashes at launch. (Start up issues like that are hard to rule out entirely). Perhaps they opt to thow money at advertising after launch and try to grow more steadily instead; a bit like WOW grew over the years.

Thanks for catching that.  Meant weeks.

I don't know about their preorder limit as it coincides with their advertising either.  Two ideas:

1. Make it limited to ensure a stable launch, add people as fast as possible after that.  This way you generate the envy from players that don't have the game yet, making the game even better in their minds.  A viral campaign based off of scarcity I suppose.

2. The whole preorder limit is the marketing campaign, making people believe that their will be scarcity and therefore driving up preorders as much as possible.  Preorder limit is never reached because there really wasn't one to begin with.

It might be a "little succes" I would say.

It will never kill WoW. And I bet that around ~40%-50% of the peopele will stop playing after 1-3 months.

SWTOR isn't inovative. It's for the "Real fan" of star wars, period. And too many people think of themself beeing real fan of the serie, when they aren't.

Most people talking about SWTOR and "hoping" for a huge succes are more WoW haters than Star wars fan, which will not end-up well for the game. So I would say SWTOR will be a Aion/Rift/Insert high-hype game that aren't that good in end and were overhyped.

Originally posted by Requiem6

It might be a "little succes" I would say.

It will never kill WoW. And I bet that around ~40%-50% of the peopele will stop playing after 1-3 months.

SWTOR isn't inovative. It's for the "Real fan" of star wars, period. And too many people think of themself beeing real fan of the serie, when they aren't.

Most people talking about SWTOR and "hoping" for a huge succes are more WoW haters than Star wars fan, which will not end-up well for the game. So I would say SWTOR will be a Aion/Rift/Insert high-hype game that aren't that good in end and were overhyped.

And which "innovative" game has been so successful in the past?

  It has broken pre-order records so your right, it is over-hyped.

Originally posted by Requiem6

It might be a "little succes" I would say.

It will never kill WoW. And I bet that around ~40%-50% of the peopele will stop playing after 1-3 months.

SWTOR isn't inovative. It's for the "Real fan" of star wars, period. And too many people think of themself beeing real fan of the serie, when they aren't.

Most people talking about SWTOR and "hoping" for a huge succes are more WoW haters than Star wars fan, which will not end-up well for the game. So I would say SWTOR will be a Aion/Rift/Insert high-hype game that aren't that good in end and were overhyped.

I really don't believe they are trying to kill WoW. Why would they try and kill the game that they have modeled their game after? I think it has been proven already that you can not kill WoW with a game that plays like WoW. BW and EA are just trying to do what Trion did with Rift. Cash in on the huge success that is WoW. Why be innovative when innovative is risky? 

I think the people that are blindly devoted to this game are just as bad as the haters. Different sides oif the same coin. This game is what it is. There is not any kind of ground breaking or innovative thing going on here. Im not saying that is bad .. it just is what it is. If you like Star Wars and like WoW this game is for you.

To be honest, not alot of game in the past few years were really succesful. Some had a good succes, but not as near the one they really wanted.

Like Rift, I didn't play it, but it might be a really good game. They announced themself as the new WoW Killer. And didn't even touched it.

Final Fantasy XI ? I remember looking for that game, and saying to myself... Wait for the review and to actually watch that game. It ended up beeing a total fail.

Most game that had potential all went free to play because they weren't as good as they think to compete with the other subscription game.

I don't think any game can kill WoW. If something can kill WoW, it's blizzard themself. And WoW won't "die" so easily like this. They might lose like what.. another 1M or 2M sub ? But even if they did lost that amount, they will still be at the top and most popular mmorpg.

I'm just tired of everyone using WoW-Killer expression. I don't play WoW anymore, but that's just over-hyping a game for no reason, and wasting your money on a game that might be good, but will never be a wow killer.

Originally posted by GreenHell

Originally posted by Requiem6

It might be a "little succes" I would say.

It will never kill WoW. And I bet that around ~40%-50% of the peopele will stop playing after 1-3 months.

SWTOR isn't inovative. It's for the "Real fan" of star wars, period. And too many people think of themself beeing real fan of the serie, when they aren't.

Most people talking about SWTOR and "hoping" for a huge succes are more WoW haters than Star wars fan, which will not end-up well for the game. So I would say SWTOR will be a Aion/Rift/Insert high-hype game that aren't that good in end and were overhyped.

I really don't believe they are trying to kill WoW. Why would they try and kill the game that they have modeled their game after? I think it has been proven already that you can not kill WoW with a game that plays like WoW. BW and EA are just trying to do what Trion did with Rift. Cash in on the huge success that is WoW. Why be innovative when innovative is risky? 

I think the people that are blindly devoted to this game are just as bad as the haters. Different sides oif the same coin. This game is what it is. There is not any kind of ground breaking or innovative thing going on here. Im not saying that is bad .. it just is what it is. If you like Star Wars and like WoW this game is for you.

/agreed

Besides, WoW keeps openning up new markets for other MMOs to follow into later.  They spend the money, they bring the hype.  All the other developers just wait for Blizzard to do all the work and profit on it later.

FFXI was very successful it was FFIV that was not. FFXI hit 500 k  see here  

 http://www.gamespot.com/pc/rpg/finalfantasy11/news/6086169/500000-milestone-for-playonline?mode=all

That may not be wow standard but 500 k in 2003-2004 was pretty good.

Here they talk profits

 http://www.gamespot.com/pc/rpg/finalfantasy11/news/6098996/square-enix-announces-earnings-talks-ffxii?mode=all

....this line mentions

"The online gaming sector made 8.9 billion yen ($79.4 million) in sales and 2.3 billion yen ($20.5 million) in operation profits, with its massively multiplayer online role-playing game Final Fantasy XI responsible for most of that figure. FFXI currently has about 500,000 subscribers, and the figure continues to grow."

I think it will be highly succesful and what doesnt make it into launch will be patched in very soon with many expansions on the way its bioware they are always fast with new content look and DAO and DA2 for examples and after their 1st year of extream succes they will prolly anounce a Mass effect or Dragon age mmo in the works. i do not care for WOW comparisons wow is withering away atleast everyone i know has left or leaving it for either TOR,GW2,and tera well anyways have fun

Originally posted by Requiem6

And I bet that around ~40%-50% of the peopele will stop playing after 1-3 months.

SWTOR isn't inovative.

It's for the "Real fan" of star wars, period. And too many people think of themself beeing real fan of the serie, when they aren't.

Most people talking about SWTOR and "hoping" for a huge succes are more WoW haters than Star wars fan, which will not end-up well for the game. So I would say SWTOR will be a Aion/Rift/Insert high-hype game that aren't that good in end and were overhyped.

OK.. where to begin...

-I bet that around 10-90% of the statistics people make up are falsely true and false.

-SWTOR is very innovative. You can easily list out 10 features/systems in the game that have been done before, many that have been done for a decade, like any hater will do - but you can also easily list out 10 features/systems in the game that have never been done before in a MMORPG, like any fanboi will do - point is, both are right.

This game is innovative in that it brings new ideas/concepts to the genre while continuing to refine and correct/build on the ideas/concepts of those that came before.

Innovative is by definition to innovate which is to create something new and/or change something established. DONE.

-There is no such thing as a "Real fan" for anything... not games, not sports, nothing. While I understand you are probably trying to make some reference to SWG being for "Real fans" and TOR being for prequel fans etc. I can tell you I have read many if not most of the extended universe books and many comics and played every SW game ever made and even used to play the PnP RPG and I am still a very big FAN of TOR.

-All the WoW hater stuff is pretty much unique to this website as the rest of the internet actually likes WoW and the vast, vast, vast majority of TOR fans are not WoW haters. Most are probably WoW players, Bioware fans, Star Wars fans, etc.

But we already talked about fans didn't we?

-Comparing SWTOR to Aion/Rift/Warhammer/AoC is a joke!

Combine all of the fans of Warhammer and Conan IPs and you might get 10% of the Star Wars fans. Combine the budget and staff that made Aion/Rift/Warhammer/AoC and you might get close to the production value of TOR.

Combine the talent of those companies.. who have released.... what now? Shitty Asian grinder MMOs, a single game that is actually very well polished just boring (RIFT), Daoc (apparently was awesome, never played it) and the guys who made Anarchy Online...

Bioware is in a whole different league son. Mass Effect 2 probably out sold every game ever made by those companies, combined. Throw in Mass Effect 1, pre-orders for ME3, DA1 and 2, Bulders Gate, KOTOR, Neverwinter...

You're trying to compare one of the premiere AAA game studios on the planet with.. Funcom? Trion?

Don't make me lawl

I put mediocre success. I just don't think story can keep ya' hooked when you're raiding at max level, AGAIN.

Originally posted by jjjk29

  It has broken pre-order records so your right, it is over-hyped.

as did Age of Conan ...

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/age-of-conan-breaks-pre-order-records

whenever i mention AOC I mean no disrepect to SWTOR

Bioware is nothing like Funcom -- but we've all seen hype like this before

the real measure wont be preorders or units sold

it will be subscriber retention after the first 2-3 months

Originally posted by Nadia

Bioware is nothing like Funcom -- but we've all seen hype like this before

True--but betting on failure because of "hype" is just as likely to be wrong as betting on success because of "hype".

I agree with you -- personally I think SWTOR will be the 2nd most successful mmo in history, but time will tell