I am having some trouble understanding how SWTOR is going to maintain enough subs after the intial couple months. As I see it, here are the demographic groups SWTOR is targetting at:

1. RPG players with no interest in MMORPG

2. Starwar fans with no interest in MMORPG

3. MMORPG players who like theme park MMORPG but do not like RPG

4. MMORPG players who enjoy theme park MMORPG and RPG and is not tired of WoW yet

5. MMORPG players who enjoy theme park MMORPG and RPG but is tired of WoW

Now the problem is that besides group 5, there is no reason for the other groups to stay around after the first couple months. Group 1 and group 2 will move on once they finish the stories, group 3 will not even enjoy the game (we already heard lots of complaints from power levelers from beta test), group 4 would probabaly prefer to still stay in WoW as they already have established characters/communities there and no reason for them to start over grinding BG/raids again.

So now the question is how big a group is group 5? We know mass effect 2 has 2 million box sales, so that puts a upper bound on the combined numbers of group 1, 4 and 5. We can probabely also use RIFT as a reference point, which supposely appeal to people who are tired of WoW  and want a fresh start but still enjoy theme park MMO. My guess is right now RIFT has about 300k to 500k subscribers, which many of them may belong to group 3. We can also use the box sale of RIFT as a rough estimate, which is about 1 million, and assume 40% of the sales are due to group 3 and group 4 and the rest is due to group 5, then that still only gives us about 600k potential long term subscribers to SWTOR.

Is there something I am missing that you guys can point out?

Originally posted by hefan

I am having some trouble understanding how SWTOR is going to maintain enough subs after the intial couple months. As I see it, here are the demographic groups SWTOR is targetting at:

 

1. RPG players with no interest in MMORPG

2. Starwar fans with no interest in MMORPG

3. MMORPG players who like theme park MMORPG but do not like RPG

4. MMORPG players who enjoy theme park MMORPG and RPG and is not tired of WoW yet

5. MMORPG players who enjoy theme park MMORPG and RPG but is tired of WoW

 

Now the problem is that besides group 5, there is no reason for the other groups to stay around after the first couple months. Group 1 and group 2 will move on once they finish the stories, group 3 will not even enjoy the game (we already heard lots of complaints from power levelers from beta test), group 4 would probabaly prefer to still stay in WoW as they already have established characters/communities there and no reason for them to start over grinding BG/raids again.

 

So now the question is how big a group is group 5? We know mass effect 2 has 2 million box sales, so that puts a upper bound on the combined numbers of group 1, 4 and 5. We can probabely also use RIFT as a reference point, which supposely appeal to people who are tired of WoW  and want a fresh start but still enjoy theme park MMO. My guess is right now RIFT has about 300k to 500k subscribers, which many of them may belong to group 3. We can also use the box sale of RIFT as a rough estimate, which is about 1 million, and assume 40% of the sales are due to group 3 and group 4 and the rest is due to group 5, then that still only gives us about 600k potential long term subscribers to SWTOR.

 

Is there something I am missing that you guys can point out?

 

Same way other MMO's do. They only need 500k subs to be profitable.

SWTOR will maintain subs until something else comes along.. because atm anything is better than nothing.

PvP

Why do I care about convincing you of anything? I don't know you, I don't care about you, or your opinion... No offense, I just don't get threads like this.

Jawa's

Originally posted by DarkPony

Jawa's

 

This ^

Im not sure if the op is attempting to write yet another pointless version of a dislike SWTOR thread or naive to MMO's. Just tin case though:

They will maintains subs as any other mmo attempts to do by making a game, creating new content for the game, have as best customer service as possible, deal with unruly players, keep pricing as was stated as best as possible, maintain game balance as much as possible, and finally for SWTOR keep the story going. if i missed something...oh well.

****All hail the new Dark Lord of the Sith.. Darth Rabbid!****

Originally posted by RavingRabbid

****All hail the new Dark Lord of the Sith.. Darth Rabbid!****

*breathes audibly*

How dare you! Pretentious little rodent!

 .... Now where's that weasel when you it? ...

Originally posted by Darkholme

Why do I care about convincing you of anything? I don't know you, I don't care about you, or your opinion... No offense, I just don't get threads like this.

Convince me you truly don't care about the OP or his opinion.

Originally posted by DarkPony

Originally posted by RavingRabbid

****All hail the new Dark Lord of the Sith.. Darth Rabbid!****

*breathes audibly*

How dare you! Pretentious little rodent!

 .... Now where's that weasel when you it? ...

oooooooohhhhhh! Theres gonna be a smackdown all up in here.

SWTOR has half a million pre orders already or 443,836 pre orders to be exact as of Sept 10th. It is also the fourth most preordered game being preordered in america at the moment Gears being number 1.

I thinking swtor is going to do alright XD

Why are people so upset that Swtor is going to be a success?

I understand that some might be scared that Swtor will effect there choice MMO, maybe push your MMO of choice to become free to pay or even shut down but still, why, who cares, if you don't like Swtor just don't play it, ride your choice MMO and hope it lasts,besides there will allways be GW2 that's not going anywhere because its's a buy and play MMO, even though WoW will lose about 3 million subs,WoW will still be number 1 for at least a few more years, Rift might take a hit and everything else but GW2 will go bankrupt or F2P but that dosn't mean the end of all MMO's.

Originally posted by hefan

I am having some trouble understanding how SWTOR is going to maintain enough subs after the intial couple months. As I see it, here are the demographic groups SWTOR is targetting at:

 

1. RPG players with no interest in MMORPG

2. Starwar fans with no interest in MMORPG

3. MMORPG players who like theme park MMORPG but do not like RPG

4. MMORPG players who enjoy theme park MMORPG and RPG and is not tired of WoW yet

5. MMORPG players who enjoy theme park MMORPG and RPG but is tired of WoW

 

Now the problem is that besides group 5, there is no reason for the other groups to stay around after the first couple months. Group 1 and group 2 will move on once they finish the stories, group 3 will not even enjoy the game (we already heard lots of complaints from power levelers from beta test), group 4 would probabaly prefer to still stay in WoW as they already have established characters/communities there and no reason for them to start over grinding BG/raids again.

 

So now the question is how big a group is group 5? We know mass effect 2 has 2 million box sales, so that puts a upper bound on the combined numbers of group 1, 4 and 5. We can probabely also use RIFT as a reference point, which supposely appeal to people who are tired of WoW  and want a fresh start but still enjoy theme park MMO. My guess is right now RIFT has about 300k to 500k subscribers, which many of them may belong to group 3. We can also use the box sale of RIFT as a rough estimate, which is about 1 million, and assume 40% of the sales are due to group 3 and group 4 and the rest is due to group 5, then that still only gives us about 600k potential long term subscribers to SWTOR.

 

Is there something I am missing that you guys can point out?

 

The troll is strong with this one.

Change is scary to alot of people

Originally posted by hefan

I am having some trouble understanding how SWTOR is going to maintain enough subs after the intial couple months. As I see it, here are the demographic groups SWTOR is targetting at:

 

1. RPG players with no interest in MMORPG

2. Starwar fans with no interest in MMORPG

3. MMORPG players who like theme park MMORPG but do not like RPG

4. MMORPG players who enjoy theme park MMORPG and RPG and is not tired of WoW yet

5. MMORPG players who enjoy theme park MMORPG and RPG but is tired of WoW

 

Now the problem is that besides group 5, there is no reason for the other groups to stay around after the first couple months. Group 1 and group 2 will move on once they finish the stories, group 3 will not even enjoy the game (we already heard lots of complaints from power levelers from beta test), group 4 would probabaly prefer to still stay in WoW as they already have established characters/communities there and no reason for them to start over grinding BG/raids again.

 

So now the question is how big a group is group 5? We know mass effect 2 has 2 million box sales, so that puts a upper bound on the combined numbers of group 1, 4 and 5. We can probabely also use RIFT as a reference point, which supposely appeal to people who are tired of WoW  and want a fresh start but still enjoy theme park MMO. My guess is right now RIFT has about 300k to 500k subscribers, which many of them may belong to group 3. We can also use the box sale of RIFT as a rough estimate, which is about 1 million, and assume 40% of the sales are due to group 3 and group 4 and the rest is due to group 5, then that still only gives us about 600k potential long term subscribers to SWTOR.

 

Is there something I am missing that you guys can point out?

 

 Yes. you're missing the two most important groups for this game:

1.) Bioware fans

2.) KOTOR fans

For references, see World of Warcraft.

You don't need to understand, you just need to obey.

Play the game all of your friends will be playing, it's ok.

Just like all the emo hipsters, they're really not that cool for not being cool, I promise.

I both love and hate these threads.  I love them because people use them to start up hate and discontent for a game that, from what I hear, is probably the next best thing.  I hate them because they conceal the nature why the OP posted it in the first place.  They get posted by people who are A) Serious fanboys for another game that view SWTOR as a threat, B) Can't convince their parents to buy them the game, or C) Know nothing about the tenents of what MMORPG stand for even though they claim they do....or perhaps in this case they just don't like Jawas.

SWTOR qualifies as MMORPG by the standards of:

M-Massive-there are planets to explore.

M-Multiplayer-there's a crap-load of people waiting to play this game that aren't in beta...more than needed to keep afloat.

O-Online-definately an online game.

RPG-Roleplaying Game-They take on the role of a character they choose and play how they want in their respective factions.

They seriously need a website called www.mmohaters.com where people can post these pointless threads with the other pointless hate threads.

Originally posted by hefan

I am having some trouble understanding how SWTOR is going to maintain enough subs after the intial couple months. As I see it, here are the demographic groups SWTOR is targetting at:

 

1. RPG players with no interest in MMORPG

2. Starwar fans with no interest in MMORPG

3. MMORPG players who like theme park MMORPG but do not like RPG

4. MMORPG players who enjoy theme park MMORPG and RPG and is not tired of WoW yet

5. MMORPG players who enjoy theme park MMORPG and RPG but is tired of WoW1

 

Is there something I am missing that you guys can point out?

 

Um...  your understanding of demographics?

Originally posted by DarkPony

Originally posted by RavingRabbid

****All hail the new Dark Lord of the Sith.. Darth Rabbid!****

*breathes audibly*

How dare you! Pretentious little rodent!

 .... Now where's that weasel when you it? ...

We Shall see who is the master and who is the apprentice........ ***pulls out plunger.....****