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10/30/09 8:20:09 AM#41
Originally posted by Zorndorf
I admit the latest datapoint for Aion is an estimate, but I have alot of data to support it, most of it based on the Quarterly reports from NCsoft. I also gave it an accuracy rating of C – Not too confident : Some of the data points come from official or other reliable sources, many of the data points come from estimates, third party sources, unclear official sources or other indirect information. I don't have solid numbers for all the mmo's, I do have solid numbers for many of them. Use it or don't use it as you see fit.
The 3.5 M of Aion only was cited ONCE by an anonymous AU source in ... June 09 and by one journalist of IGN. It came 3(!) weeks after an official May announcement of NCsoft they had ... 1M Chinese players on ... 113 Chinese servers back then. At that time Chine Aion ... was open Beta (free to play). So this 3.5 M "rumour" came on a time when the servers were certainly not there for China (and 3 weeks is simply impossible to triple the amount of players - let alone the servers). Since then NCsoft opened up new servers in other regions like Japan and Taiwan. But they LACK in giving any official subs info. Their famous "60% of all players are playing now" statement of the NA/EU launch, shows it had a 400 K with 240 K players on line on far too few servers (12/12). Even these new servers ALL combined can not support the usual 10K to one server limit we see in the overall fantasy realm based mmorpg's. So 3.5M - even with the new Aion west servers AND Japan AND Taiwan is a myth. If you WANT to make a website about these figures, you better back them up with statements of NAMED CEO's of companies. otherwise juste delete the info. Based on number of servers (and what we now see in the downward trend of Aion on Xfire), the game certainly has not the "normal" capacity to host these numbers. it is also in sharp contrast with the "always up - hype" Aion had this last year. So clearly Aion West is down these days in samples. The acceptance of false figures is counter productive for the industry btw.
It looks like they are going down this month, I agree. There are certain facts that you seem to dismiss tho, like that the Aion servers can hold 7000 peak concurrent players, please accept this fact as it comes straight from the Quarterly reports from NCSoft. So in theory they should be able to handle 20k subs per server if you compare it with more traditional servers that can hold around 3500 PCU and 10k accounts. This is of course only the case when the servers have queues. At release, that was certainly so, both in China, Taiwan, Korea and the West. But again, I agree that it currently is no longer the case and numbers are going down. My other datapoints for Aion most certainly still stand, like the one with around 1750000 subs around march ( dont have the exact data with me atm ), because that was the sum of the Korean and Chinese players at that time. With the latest downward trend of Xfire and servers with no queues but still medium or high pop, I'll have to add a new estimated datapoint again. About previous estimates, I normally only make 1 estimate per game, so if I have a new, more up to date estimate I delete the previous one, so perhaps it looks like retracting, I look at it as updating/revising. I only keep the history on the live charts for datapoints that have at least a reasonably reliable source. So for estimates, it is only the latest estimate I have that I will put on the live charts.
If you are interested in subscription or PCU numbers for MMORPG's, check out my site : |
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10/30/09 1:06:31 PM#42
http://us.blizzard.com/en-us/company/press/pressreleases.html?081121 Consumer cost: European Purchase North American Purchase China Purchase 38 renminbi/yuan = 5.57 USD for 48 hours/600 points = *3 38 renminbi/yuan = 5.57 USD for 48 hours/600 points = *6 5 million subs / 3 = 1,666,667 million subs 5 million subs / 6 = 833,334 thousand subs I think in this case they are displaying 3 or more times the numbers by the way they sell their The method of time distribution via a points system allows them to inflate the |
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Kyleran
 Elite Member
Joined: 9/13/06
A simple truth-"What people want and what is good for an mmo is not always the same thing"-mrw0lf |
10/30/09 1:12:46 PM#43
Short of a government agency passing a law that clearly defines what should be reported and requires MMORPG publishers to provide the figures we'll never really know what the real numbers are. Heck, even for the few companies that do share their sub numbers, there's always a number of detractors who insist they are lying about them, especially if the figures are high.
"Just because you aren't paying doesn't mean it's not PTW." - Amaranthar |
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10/30/09 5:20:15 PM#44
Originally posted by a_name Your research is interesting, but you made a wrong turn somewhere. Blizzard states : World of Warcraft subscribers include individuals who have paid a subscription fee or have an active prepaid card to play World of Warcraft, as well as those who have purchased the game and are within their free month of access. Internet Game Room players who have accessed the game over the last thirty days are also counted as subscribers. The above definition excludes all players under free promotional subscriptions, expired or cancelled subscriptions, and expired prepaid cards. Subscribers in licensees’ territories are defined along the same rules.
For me it is clear that they are not counting accounts more than once if they buy more time cards or points or whatever in the same month. If they did, then they would indeed inflate their numbers on purpose, but even then they would be the biggest by far, so whats the point? And for the real, mainland, Europeans ( j/k :p but still ... :) ) it is 27€ = 40$ = 20$ a month You actually made my point, Chinese players do pay good money, and the old provider The9 took the biggest part of the cake ( 78% ).
If you are interested in subscription or PCU numbers for MMORPG's, check out my site : |
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10/30/09 5:35:42 PM#45
We discussed this in another thread, between them calling it ridiculous and a definition explanation that can't be solved for the word active, it's reached a halt. I say one thing others say another. Am I alone in my thinking, doesn't really matter if ppl post to agree with what active means - it would just be arguing at this point things you can't link to fact. Guess I had a good time debating it even if everyone thinks their side is right.
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5/30/11 9:47:11 PM#46
Originally posted by iamnotsevere Seems to show trends fairly well. |
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5/30/11 9:54:07 PM#47
this was necroed 2 years later ... why ? |
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