I've never bought a hotcake personally.  Does this mean the game will fail?

Anyhow, I don't think this game will have any trouble selling boxes.  I think it'll have some trouble keeping people after a couple of months.  Best comparison point is probably AoC.  AoC was a great seller - something like a million boxes.  But in retrospect it's not really considered a success.  Personally I have nothing against the game, I enjoyed it on launch and if I liked PvP and had a high-end system, I'd be still playing it.

I don't think i've see anyone allege that the game will have poor launch sales either.  I think everyone knows that the box can be empty and still sell truckloads.

Seriously, this game will sell a lot of boxes?  Is that really something that people don't already understand?

If bioware polished the game and has lots of quality content the game will do well?  Isn't that something that is so completely obvious that it really goes without saying? 

I'm not really sure where all these sandbox complaints are, but you keep up the crusade.  Pat yourself on the back for doing a fine job. 

I'm not a vet. I'm a themepark gamer for the last 6 years and I could care less that TOR isn't a sandbox. 

That being said I think there are things that look awesome about the game, really awesome.  At the same time there are enough things that have been shown that make it look like just more of the same with a star wars skin. 

it wont sell many if  WoW2, GW2, Tera all come out before SWTOR.

Of course the game will sell well. It's hype is ridiculously high, and as with every other MMO with a lot of hype, it will sell a lot of boxes.

Whether or not it actually retains the people who buy the game is another matter entirely. Even Bioware cannot be absolutely  certain that the game will retain the attention of a large portion of the people who buy the game.

This game will sell a million copies, maybe 1.5 million. It will NOT have millions of subs and 2-3 months in it will be down to 250-300k where it will continue a slightly sloping decline that is typical to most MMOs which then gets bumped up some everytime there is an expansion etc. This is a REALISTIC post not a negative post. The problem is all the fans want the game to have 5 million subs out the door and start taking the market from WoW and it just isn't going to happen no matter how much optimism you throw at it.

WoW does not have 5 million NA subs. I doubt it has 5 million NA + EU Subs. 

Originally posted by MMOman101

WoW does not have 5 million NA subs. I doubt it has 5 million NA + EU Subs. 

 No it doesn't have 5 million NA subs, but I guarantee all the numbers coming out of Bioware when SW releases will be the entire world so they can present numbers as big as possible, just like WoW.

Originally posted by SnarlingWolf

This game will sell a million copies, maybe 1.5 million. It will NOT have millions of subs and 2-3 months in it will be down to 250-300k where it will continue a slightly sloping decline that is typical to most MMOs which then gets bumped up some everytime there is an expansion etc. This is a REALISTIC post not a negative post.

And another prophet is born. You just have to love all the Oracles that know so sure what the future will be like, damn, I wish I had that talent, I'd be rich!

In short: trends emerge, trends end, trends never are forever.

Originally posted by SnarlingWolf

This game will sell a million copies, maybe 1.5 million. It will NOT have millions of subs and 2-3 months in it will be down to 250-300k where it will continue a slightly sloping decline that is typical to most MMOs which then gets bumped up some everytime there is an expansion etc. This is a REALISTIC post not a negative post. The problem is all the fans want the game to have 5 million subs out the door and start taking the market from WoW and it just isn't going to happen no matter how much optimism you throw at it.

You may be right... but just like everyone else, you don't know that. There is no way to know how good the game is or how successful it will be until it is released and people actually get their hands on it. Unless you have a crystal ball and can see the future, you can't make statements like that with ANY sort of credibility whatsoever.

Originally posted by MMOman101

WoW does not have 5 million NA subs. I doubt it has 5 million NA + EU Subs. 

4 were the last I heard but 3 or 5 is a possibility (for NA + EU), since the only official number includes the Asian subs (which really isn't P2P and should be separate) it is pretty hard to say anything for sure.

And upcoming CATA might have gotten players back already even if it sounds too early, 4 millions is from last winter and not an official number for that matter.

But Wow sure doesn't have 5 million subs in US + Canada. No way. It is larger nowadays in NA then EU but 2-3 million NA subs and another 1-2 EU (+ Australia) is a good guess.

Originally posted by Moaky07

It isnt anything new with this game. From the time classes were announced, and up until this very day, I dont think I have ever seen such a hatred towards a game.

How can you have over 800 posts and say you never seen so much hate? Darkfall, AION, MO, WAR, AoC, FF XIV....

I order you to go back 2 years to the Darkfall forum and read a bit.

All upcoming games today have haters and fanbois. KOTOR fans do have have right to look forward to the game, it is after all kinda an expansion of a game they liked. The rest of us should wait with love or hate until the we actually tried the game in the open beta or released version before starting any flame war.

Discussing things that sound good and bad is of course what the forum is for but real hatred and pure love of a game you never played is just regular stupidity.

If the game will go fine or badly still is open and it really depends on how fun it is too play. It seems a bit worrying to me that EA plowed so much money into the game, EALOUSE number of 300M$ can't possibly be right (no way) but even half that is a huge sum and I am not sure if any future MMO can hope to get in that sum including Blizzards next project. Just because Wow did get loads of cash does not mean anyone can again, the market is a lot tougher today and I don't think anyone can get such a huge percentage of the players again.

Originally posted by Loke666

Originally posted by MMOman101

WoW does not have 5 million NA subs. I doubt it has 5 million NA + EU Subs. 

4 were the last I heard but 3 or 5 is a possibility (for NA + EU), since the only official number includes the Asian subs (which really isn't P2P and should be separate) it is pretty hard to say anything for sure.

And upcoming CATA might have gotten players back already even if it sounds too early, 4 millions is from last winter and not an official number for that matter.

But Wow sure doesn't have 5 million subs in US + Canada. No way. It is larger nowadays in NA then EU but 2-3 million NA subs and another 1-2 EU (+ Australia) is a good guess.

Im seeing a lot more people in Outland on my server than I did before the patch. I dont know if it means anything but they are there.  Might be a combination of those who want to get ready for Cata and those wanting to see what all the controversy is about.

Originally posted by Loke666

Just because Wow did get loads of cash does not mean anyone can again, the market is a lot tougher today and I don't think anyone can get such a huge percentage of the players again.

At the same time, just because no one since WoW has been able to do it does not mean that no one ever can again... I think we have just gotten used to every company failing. Given the quality of Blizzard products overall, I am not really that surprised that most companies fail to match it.

When I think back over the last 6 years, there has not been a single other game that has been released with the same level of polish or anywhere near the same amount of content that WoW delivered. This was the reason that WoW was so successful... and the inability of anyone else to release a game at the same standard of quality since is the reason no one has been able to really compete with it. Blizzard has simply not had anyone to compete with who has released a TRULY polished and content-rich game to the same degree as WoW. Of all the companies who have tried, I have to say that I think Bioware has the best chance of pulling it off.

Again, we will just have to wait and see... I'm just saying it isn't impossible to overtake WoW by any means.

Originally posted by Loke666

It seems a bit worrying to me that EA plowed so much money into the game, EALOUSE number of 300M$ can't possibly be right (no way) but even half that is a huge sum and I am not sure if any future MMO can hope to get in that sum including Blizzards next project. Just because Wow did get loads of cash does not mean anyone can again, the market is a lot tougher today and I don't think anyone can get such a huge percentage of the players again.

Actually a friend just sent me this regarding the 300 million.

http://www.softsailor.com/news/47235-ea-confirms-star-wars-the-old-republics-production-costs-exceed-300-million.html

hmmmm, though I admit they use this ealouse as a source but claim that "bioware" claims this. Yet they don't list who in bioware.

so could just be based on this one person.

Of course it will sell well. So did Age of Conan. And then it bombed.

Will SWTOR bomb? No idea to be honest. Bioware has a solid reputation... AS a developer of SINGLE player RPG's NONE of which had a combat system that has to entertain for MONTHS on end on its own...

Or simply put. I did NOT play and enjoy Dragon Age for its combat system. It wasn't to bad, but came down awfully fast with realization that all that mattered was to get the enemy archer down before he could cause a hail of arrows that would wipe an entire party in seconds. 

In a MMO, the combat system is something you are going to be exposed day after day, month after month. It must be solid. Can Bioware do that? I do not know. Surely they know this and have worked hard on it. The previews don't show to much promise but maybe it is more fun when we play the final version.

The other design choices? Have to see it to judge it. Might be the best thing since slices bread. Might be another FFXIV or AoC.

I think the biggest flak will come from players who will hate it because it is not what they wanted and with so much hype I seen some people imagine a game that couldn't be build on a Holodeck of the Enterprise.

Others already seems to hate it because there is STORY in a RPG! Those who can't PK level 1's will hate its guts as well.

But every game has haters. The internet knows how to work around them. It is when people like me, who can like different games and stay away from the hype get exposed to a game that just does not work at its core, that a game is doomed at launch.

I doubt Bioware will be that stupid. After all, they got a solid reputation as a game developer. But then, so does Square Enix...

We shall see. The true test will be to see how many remain after the first free month runs out. No way to know for now. There are to many new elements, to many wild expectations and to many customers wanting this game to be something it is not (SWG2, Aoin2, WoW2) to there at least not be a large number of people who quit simply because Bioware choose to ignore their perfectly resonable demands to make the game THEY wanted to make rather then Bioware wanted to make.

Originally posted by Sovrath

Originally posted by Loke666

It seems a bit worrying to me that EA plowed so much money into the game, EALOUSE number of 300M$ can't possibly be right (no way) but even half that is a huge sum and I am not sure if any future MMO can hope to get in that sum including Blizzards next project. Just because Wow did get loads of cash does not mean anyone can again, the market is a lot tougher today and I don't think anyone can get such a huge percentage of the players again.

Actually a friend just sent me this regarding the 300 million.

http://www.softsailor.com/news/47235-ea-confirms-star-wars-the-old-republics-production-costs-exceed-300-million.html

 

hmmmm, though I admit they use this ealouse as a source but claim that "bioware" claims this. Yet they don't list who in bioware.

 

so could just be based on this one person.

The following statement applies to any game released under the Star Wars franchise:

If you build it, they will come.

People will always buy/play/subscribe because of the Star Wars name, it is a fact of life. You know this, I know this, dogs know this, and yes, even BioWare knows this. The "base" Star Wars geek subscribers will subscribe and play soley based on the fact that it is a Star Wars game. These same people are carrying SWG and have been carrying SWG for the last 5 years.  

Having said that, BioWare doesn't just want these "bread and butter" subscribers. They also want the hardcore and casual MMO gamers that play games because of flawless mechanics, polished UI, clean attractive graphics, and engaging content. From what's been released so far it appears they are on track (not there yet) to delivering on this.

Judging by the threads on this site alone they've got the buzz, they've got the lovers, haters, and in betweens at least admitting they will give it a try, so I don't really see them blowing this one.

The pitch is coming slow and straight right over home plate and all BioWare has to do is swing. My gut says they hit this one out of the park.

This game will sell like Hotcakes regardless of negativity by certain individualss

Fast food will sell  regardless of negativ....

pop music will sell regardless of negativ....

drugs will sell regardless of negativ...

so this game will be just like the rest of mass marketed crap big deal.

Originally posted by udon

Originally posted by Sovrath

Originally posted by Loke666

It seems a bit worrying to me that EA plowed so much money into the game, EALOUSE number of 300M$ can't possibly be right (no way) but even half that is a huge sum and I am not sure if any future MMO can hope to get in that sum including Blizzards next project. Just because Wow did get loads of cash does not mean anyone can again, the market is a lot tougher today and I don't think anyone can get such a huge percentage of the players again.

Actually a friend just sent me this regarding the 300 million.

http://www.softsailor.com/news/47235-ea-confirms-star-wars-the-old-republics-production-costs-exceed-300-million.html

 

hmmmm, though I admit they use this ealouse as a source but claim that "bioware" claims this. Yet they don't list who in bioware.

 

so could just be based on this one person.

 

The article says all the information was official but doesn’t ever quote anything but that blog entry.  Kind of odd to me, if I was the writer and had a official statement from a corporate executive and a unconfirmed blog which do you think I would be more inclined to quote from?

To be honest it's a bit suspect to me as well.

Originally posted by Moaky07

It isnt anything new with this game. From the time classes were announced, and up until this very day, I dont think I have ever seen such a hatred towards a game.

 

I dont think in the end it will matter. It will fall upon the shoulders of those that enjoy it, and the critics who will write about it.

 

Currently FF14 is being bombed hard by the critics, and a number of fans as well. It will survive I would imagine, due in no small part to a loyal following. I doubt it will ever reach the potential it had sub-wise, but "it is what it is" so to speak. We all know how important launches are.

 

Same thing will apply to TOR. The worry IMO is what shape it launches in. If it is polished, and plenty of content, then chances are it will get favorable reviews. Like FF14, this game will have a devoted fan base. Not just of the IP, but the game maker as well.  It will sell copies.

 

As my prior thread showed, poster's estimates on sales numbers the first month seem pretty decent(1M to 2M range the most common answer).

 

The critical thing BW has to do is make the game polished, and with plenty of quality content to do. The rest will work itself out, no matter what negativity pops up between now and release date. If the critics bomb it, then it is probably not going to perform well in the market.  If random internet person states "it isnt a sandbox", or  "My brothers-sisters-cousins-fathers-mother got me a job at a EA company, so I know it will fail" , I would suggest to take it in stride.

 

Just remember..... it is par for the course when it relates to this game.

1. It's really stupid to judge a game's, let alone a MMO's, 'success' on how boxes it sells in the first month. There has been many many over hyped pieces of crap based on big IPs that have sold a lot. Wait until month 3 and then check out the real reviews and retention rates for the real story.

2. No it isnt 'par for the course'. It's only 'par' for bad games, or games looking to shape up to look as bad as this one is.

3. I don't give a damn about how many boxes a game shifts, and don't see it as any kind of validation either way. I play a game because I like it, not because others do or don't, I don't need a herd to tell me I am right or wrong.

4. Don't worry about the first month reviews, they will be fine, because EA Bioware have the funds and influence to make them fine, the same way they made planet prospecting disappear from ME2 reviews and be 'fine'. If any corp knows how to shill it's EA.